MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, June 23rd, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Reds @ Nationals
Castillo is making his big league debut; he is 4-4, 2.58 in 14 starts in AA this season.

Strasburg is 5-1, 3.48 in his last seven starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Washington is 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-6 (8-1 last 9)

Reds lost 11 of their last 12 games; they’re 6-6 in road series openers. Reds’ last five games went over the total. Washington lost three of last four games; they’re 8-4 in home series openers. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games.

Cubs @ Marlins
Lackey is 1-4, 5.82 in his last six starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Cubs are 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-10-1

Urena is 2-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Miami is 3-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-2-1

Cubs won five of last seven games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Miami won seven of its last nine home games; over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games.

Brewers @ Braves
Nelson is 3-0, 2.31 in his last five starts; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Milwaukee is 3-2 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Foltynewicz is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three home starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Braves are are 4-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-5-2

Milwaukee is 7-3 in its last ten games, 6-4 in road series openers; over is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Atlanta won six of last eight games; under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games. Braves are 6-5 in home series openers.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Taillon is 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Pirates’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3-2

Wainwright is 1-2, 17.42 in his last three starts; over is 9-3 in his last 12. St Louis is 5-2 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2

Pirates are 3-5 in their last eight games, 4-8 in road series openers; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. St Louis lost six of last nine games, is 5-7 in home series openers. Over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Phillies @ Diamondbacks
Leiter is making his first MLB start here; he’s allowed 12 runs in 19 IP in 12 relief stints. He was 1-0, 4.74 in five AAA games (3 starts) this year.

Corbin is 2-2, 8.71 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1). Arizona won his last six home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:

Phillies lost 12 of last 14 games, are 5-7 in road series openers. Under is 5-3 in their last eight road games. Arizona won nine of its last games; they’re 8-3 in home series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven home games.

Rockies @ Dodgers
Freeland is 3-1, 3.38 in his last four starts; his last three stayed under. Colorado is 6-1 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 9-4-1

Wood is 6-0, 1.94 in his last seven starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Dodgers are 5-0 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-2-1

Colorado won six of its last eight games but lost last two, allowing 26 runs; they’re 6-6 in road series openers. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Dodgers won 13 of last 14 games; over is 12-1 in their last 13 games. LA is 9-3 in home series openers.

Mets @ Giants
Lugo is 1-1, 3.29 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Mets’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 1-1

Blach is 0-2, 7.36 in his last three starts; over is 5-0-1 in his last six. Giants are 2-4 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4

Mets lost seven of last eight games; they’re 1-5 in last six road series openers. Over is 9-1 in their last ten games. San Francisco lost nine of last ten games, are 4-6 in home series openers. Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.

American League

Rangers @ New York
Darvish is 1-3, 4.45 in his last five starts; under is 8-0-1 in his last nine. Texas is 4-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-4-4

Tanaka is 0-6, 9.45 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. New York is 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 6-6-1

Texas won six of last seven road games; they’re 5-6 in road series openers. Over is 6-1-1 in their last eight games1 New York lost eight of its last nine games; over is 8-2 in New York’s last ten home games. NY is 2-5 in last seven home series openers.

Orioles @ Rays
Jimenez is 1-2, 8.01 in his last six starts (over 5-0-1); Orioles split his four road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-5-1

Archer is 2-1, 3.74 in his last five starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Rays are 5-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 8-2-5

Baltimore is 4-11 in its last 15 games; they’re 3-8 in road series openers. Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games. Tampa Bay won four of last five games, is 4-8 in home series openers. Rays’ last eight home games went over.

Angels @ Red Sox
Meyer is 0-2, 3.48 in in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Angels are 1-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-5

Porcello is 0-4, 6.68 in his last five starts (under 4-1); Boston is 3-5in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him:

Angels are 6-3 in last nine road games, 6-6 in road series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Boston are 9-2 in last 11 hone games, 8-4 in home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.

Twins @ Indians
Mejia is 0-2, 6.29 in his last five starts (under 5-3-1). Minnesota’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 3-3-3

Bauer is 1-1, 4.08 in his last four starts; under is 7-3 in his last ten. Indians are 3-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2

Minnesota lost five of last seven games; they’re 8-2 in road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Cleveland won eight of last nine games; they’re 4-7 in home series openers. Over is 4-2 in their last six home games.

A’s @ White Sox
Cotton is 1-4, 6.95 in his last six starts; over is 4-2-2 in his last eight. Oakland is 2-4 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

Pelfrey is 3-1, 2.61 in his last six starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Chicago is 2-3 in his home starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 5-4-2

Oakland lost its last four games; they’re 2-9 in road series openers. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six road games. White Sox lost three of last four games, is 4-5 in home series openers. Under is 5-4-1 in their last ten home games.

Blue Jays @ Royals
Happ is 2-0, 2.13 in his last two starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Toronto’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-5

Junis is 1-1, 7.40 in four starts this year (over 3-0-1). Royals’ 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-2

Toronto won four of last six road games, is 7-5 in road series openers. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Royals woo nine of last 11 games, is 6-6 in home series openers. Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games.

Astros @ Mariners
Musgrove is 1-3, 6.20 in his last four starts; over is 2-0-1 in his road starts. Houston is 3-0 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 4-8

Hernandez is making his first start since April 25; he is 2-2, 4.91 in five starts this year (over 3-2). Seattle’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Houston won its four games; they’re last 10-1 in road series openers. Over is 8-4 in their last 12 road games. Mariners are 9-3 in their last 12 home games; five of their last seven home games stayed under. Seattle is 10-2 in home series openers.

Interleague

Tigers @ Padres
Fulmer is 1-4, 4.64 in his last five starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. Detroit is 3-3 in his road starts- their 1st 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1

Lamet is 2-2, 8.25 in five starts this year; his last three went over. San Diego’s 1st 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Detroit lost its last six games; they’re 6-6 in road series openers. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. San Diego lost four of last six games, is 9-3 in home series openers. Padres’ last four games stayed under the total.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Cin-Wsh: Castillo 0-0; Strasburg 10-4
Chi-Mia: Lackey 7-7; Urena 6-3
Mil-Atl: Nelson 7-7; Foltynewicz 6-7
Pitt-StL: Taillon 3-5; Wainwright 8-6
Phil-Az: Leiter 0-0; Corbin 8-6
Col-LA: Freeland 10-4; Wood 7-3
NY-SF: Lugo 1-1; Blach 4-7

American League
Tex-NY: Darvish 8-7; Tanaka 6-8
Balt-TB: Jimenez 6-3; Archer 9-6
LA-Bos: Meyer 2-6; Porcello 6-9
Min-Clev: Mejia 3-6; Bauer 7-7
A’s-Chi: Cotton 4-8; Pelfrey 5-6
Tor-KC: Happ 3-4; Junis 3-1
Hst-Sea: Musgrove 5-7; Hernandez 2-3

Interleague
Det-SD: Fulmer 7-6; Lamet 3-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Wsh: Castillo 0-0; Strasburg 2-14
Chi-Mia: Lackey 8-14; Urena 1-9
Mil-Atl: Nelson 2-14; Foltynewicz 2-13
Pitt-StL: Taillon 2-8; Wainwright 4-14 (3 of last 3)
Phil-Az: Leiter 0-0; Corbin 8-14
Col-LA: Freeland 3-14; Wood 1-10
NY-SF: Lugo 1-2; Blach 2-11

American League
Tex-NY: Darvish 3-15; Tanaka 8-14
Balt-TB: Jimenez 3-9; Archer 4-15
LA-Bos: Meyer 4-8; Porcello 5-15
Min-Clev: Mejia 3-9; Bauer 2-14
A’s-Chi: Cotton 5-12; Pelfrey 2-11
Tor-KC: Happ 2-7; Junis 1-4
Hst-Sea: Musgrove 3-12; Hernandez 3-5

Interleague
Det-SD: Fulmer 4-13; Lamet 2-5

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 40-22 AL, favorites +$18
AL @ NL– 37-35 AL, favorites -$629
Total: 77-57 AL, favorites -$611

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 40-26-1
AL @ NL: Over 41-26-2
Total: Over 81-52-3

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Indians (8-1 last nine) vs. Twins

Cleveland finished off a terrific 7-1 road swing after sweeping Minnesota and grabbing three of four from Baltimore. The Indians’ offense is heating up by eclipsing the five-run mark in each of the past nine contests, while plating 28 runs the last four nights at Camden Yards. Following a slow start to the season, the defending American League champions are back in first place as they begin the weekend owning a 2½-game edge over Minnesota.

The Twins invade Progressive Field trying to avenge the four-game sweep to Cleveland last weekend. Trevor Bauer takes the mound in the series opener for the Tribe, as the right-hander owns a perfect 3-0 record against the Twins this season, while striking out 22 batters in 19.1 innings of work.

Coldest team: Tigers (2-8 last 10) vs. Padres

Detroit began last weekend with a pair of solid victories over Tampa Bay, including dropping 13 runs in last Friday’s blowout. The Tigers lost the final two games of their series with the Rays and scored only three runs in those defeats. Detroit traveled out to the Pacific Northwest and were smoked in a four-game set by Seattle to lose the final six meetings with the Mariners.

The Tigers sit in last place of the AL Central heading into the weekend as Detroit heads to San Diego to face the Padres. Detroit owns a 1-3 record in four interleague games this season (all against Arizona), while dropping four of its last five road series openers. Michael Fulmer has struggled recently for Detroit by allowing 16 earned runs in his past five starts, while the Tigers have limped to a 1-4 record in this stretch.

Hottest pitcher: Jimmy Nelson, Brewers (5-3, 3.28 ERA)

Milwaukee reached the 40-win mark with Thursday’s 4-2 victory over Pittsburgh to grab a split of its four-game set. Nelson looks to keep up that momentum in Atlanta in the series opener as the right-hander is fresh off a complete game, six-hitter in a 2-1 triumph over San Diego last Sunday. In three of his last five starts, Nelson has struck out at least 10 batters, but his second-worst start of the season came against the Braves in late April as he allowed 11 hits and five earned runs in five innings of an 11-3 loss.

Coldest pitcher: Rick Porcello, Red Sox (3-9, 5.05 ERA)

Last season, Porcello captured the American League Cy Young Award by compiling a 22-4 record and 3.15 ERA. This season has gone the opposite direction as the right-hander owns the highest ERA of his career, while giving up 20 hits and 12 earned runs in his past two outings. However, Porcello hasn’t been helped out by his offense as the Red Sox have scored two runs or less in four of his previous five trips to the mound. The Red Sox host the Angels as Boston owns a 2-5 record in his last seven starts at Fenway Park, while allowing at least nine hits in each of his past four home outings.

Biggest OVER run: Reds (9-2-1 last 12)

It’s fair to say the wheels have fallen off the wagon in Cincinnati as the Reds have dropped 11 of their last 12 games. In this stretch, the OVER has hit nine times, while the Reds have allowed at least five runs nine times. The offense has been one of the reasons for the recent struggles by plating three runs or fewer seven times, while the OVER is 7-1-1 in the past nine road contests. Cincinnati travels to Washington as is riding an 8-2 OVER stretch the last 10 games.

Biggest UNDER run: Padres (4-0 last four)

Granted, it’s only four games, but San Diego’s offense has dried up during this stretch. Putting it into perspective, the Padres posted seven runs in an extra innings victory last Saturday, but have scored only six runs total in the past four contests. The Padres return home after capturing the finale against the Cubs on Wednesday as San Diego battles Detroit for an interleague matchup. San Diego has won nine of 12 home series openers this season, while scoring at least five runs in all nine victories.

Matchup to watch: Rockies vs. Dodgers

The three-horse race in the NL West continues to heat up as Colorado was tripped up in the final two games of its home set with Arizona. In fact, the Rockies allowed 26 runs in a pair of losses to the Diamondbacks to drop out of first place in the division. The Dodgers took advantage of Colorado’s recent misfortune by sweeping a four-game set from the Mets at Chavez Ravine to improve to 13-1 in the last 14 games.

Southpaw Alex Wood looks to stay unbeaten on the season for the Dodgers as he owns a 7-0 record to go along with a 1.90 ERA. Wood shut down the Rockies the last time he faced them at Coors Field on May 13 by tossing six scoreless innings and striking out 10 in a 4-0 victory. The Dodgers are perfect at home this season when Wood starts by compiling a 5-0 record, while Los Angeles has won eight straight at Dodger Stadium overall.

The Rockies look to snap this two-game skid with left-hander Kyle Freeland taking the mound. Freeland has picked up eight victories in his rookie season for Colorado, while the Rockies have put together a solid 6-1 mark in his seven road starts. Freeland’s first Major League start came against the Dodgers at Coors Field on April 7 as the Rockies won as a home underdog, 2-1, while the southpaw scattered four hits and one earned run in six innings.

Colorado has captured five of nine meetings from Los Angeles this season, although seven matchups have taken place in Denver. The two division rivals split a pair of games in L.A. back in April as Freeland beat the Dodgers for a second time, 4-3 as a +155 underdog.

Betcha didn’t know: The Athletics are buried in the basement of the AL West, as Oakland heads to Chicago to face the White Sox. Oakland has compiled a dreadful 2-9 record in road series openers, but one of those victories came with right-hander Jharel Cotton on the mound, who gets the start on Friday night. The Sox have won three straight home series openers with those triumphs coming over Boston, Baltimore, and Detroit.

Biggest public favorite: Nationals (-255) vs. Reds

Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+105) at Cardinals

Biggest line move: Red Sox (-150 to -165) vs. Angels

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Texas at New York (AL) (-120); Total: 10

A total of 10. With Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka. This is remarkable. The explosion of offense league-wide has been something to see this season. It has caught Tanaka in its crosshairs, hence this lofty total, but we’d have never seen a double-digit total with these two guys in the past. It almost feels like an under out of principle, but obviously we need to dig deeper.

Darvish is having a pretty good season, all things considered, for the Rangers. He’s got a 3.35 ERA with a 4.14 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP. The high xFIP is a bit surprising since his HR/FB% is already above league average. He’s struck out 99 in 94 innings as he looks to complete his first full season since 2013. Darvish has given up fewer hits, but more home runs and more walks this season. He’s still got some of the best stuff in baseball and the opportunity to go out and dominate on any given day. Darvish’s last start snapped a string of 10 straight starts with three runs or fewer allowed, so he’s done his part more often than not.

The same cannot be said for Masahiro Tanaka. The Yankees right-hander has a 6.34 ERA with a 5.66 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP. He’s been victimized by bad command all season long. Tanaka has allowed 21 home runs, one fewer than he allowed last season in 123 more innings. It’s nearly impossible to carry a .324 BABIP with a 2.47 HR/9, but Tanaka is doing it. I’ve speculated about an injury for Tanaka, who we know is pitching with a damaged UCL. His Zone% is down four percent this season, but his chase rate is still up and his swinging strike rate is up. His velocity is fine. This has gone on a long time to solely be mechanical, but that may just be the case.

Tanaka’s sinker is already 10.4 runs below average, with 8.1 runs below average on the four-seamer. His splitter was 20.1 runs above average last season and it is 1.6 runs below average this year. I don’t know where this ends. I don’t know when Tanaka might figure it out. That being said, there’s not enough value for me to take a clearly worse team at a price point like this. If Texas was +130 or something, I’d consider it, but this line isn’t good enough.

Chicago (NL) (-125) at Miami; Total: 9

The Marlins have taken on money from sharp players most of the season. That was not the case yesterday with a little bit of movement towards the Cubs and Jake Arrieta. I’ll be curious to see what happens today with John Lackey up against Jose Urena. Lackey is coming off of one of his better starts of the season. He has a 4.98 ERA with a 5.55 FIP and a 4.37 xFIP. His 22 percent HR/FB% should regress as we go along this year, so there is hope for him, especially with a good K/BB ratio, a decent BABIP, and a LOB% similar to last season. Home runs have been the primary problem for Lackey. Marlins Park is a decent stadium for suppressing power.

Lackey has lost velocity and could be showing signs of age and the lengthy list of surgeries that he has had throughout his career. On the other hand, he’s in the zone more than he was last season and his swinging strike rate is still around league average. His Zone-Contact% is actually down a bit, but his chase rate is also down. I’m tentatively wondering if Lackey is going to be on an upswing soon. I would expect to see a HR/FB% decline like what we’ve seen from Mike Fiers, who has pitched really well of late.

Jose Urena has a 3.64 ERA with a 5.18 FIP and a 5.60 xFIP, so we’re looking at some regression in his profile. The Marlins have a pretty good defensive squad, but Urena has a .244 BABIP against on the season with a 79.6 percent LOB%. Some tough times should be coming for him and the Cubs lineup certainly has the potential and the upside to do that.

I think the Cubs are the way to go today. I also think this is one of those spots where we don’t see an influx of Marlins money, so I’d probably look to grab this one earlier. Urena has those signs of regression, which could keep the steam off of the home team.

Milwaukee at Atlanta (-105); Total: 9

A virtual money line pick ‘em comes our way from SunTrust Park in Atlanta where the Brewers and Braves get together. Jimmy Nelson will take the mound for the Brew Crew and Mike Foltynewicz will attempt to defend home field for the Braves.

Chase Anderson put together another quality outing for the Brewers yesterday. The way that this starting rotation has improved this season has been really fun to watch. Nelson is coming off of a complete game with 10 strikeouts. Nelson now has a 3.28 ERA with a 3.13 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP. It looks legit, too. Nelson’s numbers all seem to be in a reasonable range and we could even suggest that his BABIP will drop and he will get even better. He’s struck out 85 batters in 85 innings and, most importantly, has cut his walk rate from 10.7 percent to 5.9 percent. That means fewer baserunners, more opportunities to work deep into games, and more pitcher’s counts. I see no reason not to believe in Nelson’s upgrades and improvements and I’m hoping we can chalk this up to analytics-based front offices having success fixing pitchers.

There are people out there that seem to like Mike Foltynewicz a lot more than I do. He has a 4.26 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a 4.57 xFIP. I don’t understand how guys that throw really hard can’t miss more bats than Foltynewicz does. I think the problem is that the Braves took him away from what should have given him success. If Foltynewicz was a two-pitch power arm in the back end, I think he’d provide more value than he is as a middling starter. Foltynewicz had to worry about refining an entire arsenal instead of refining a pitch or two. Now, he’s a below average starter.

Those are the types of pitchers that the Brewers have had a lot of success against over the course of the season. Guys that can overpower them have put them in a bad way, but Folty isn’t that guy. He’s allowed 82 hits, including 12 HR, in 74 innings. He only has 59 strikeouts. I think this is a great matchup for the Brewers. I’ll take them tonight in a pick ‘em role.

Oakland at Chicago (AL) (-110); Total: 10

On principle alone, I cannot, in good conscience, back Mike Pelfrey as a favorite. Apparently others shared that same sentiment because Pelfrey opened -120 at CRIS for tonight’s start and the market has beaten that number down a bit. The A’s will counter with Jharel Cotton.

We’re seeing our daily fade of the White Sox against right-handed pitching, so that’s not a big surprise. At this point, it doesn’t even matter which righty they are facing. Today, it’s a guy with good stuff, but bad results, in Jharel Cotton. Cotton has a 5.40 ERA with a 5.34 FIP and a 5.35 xFIP in his 66.2 innings of work. Cotton has issued too many walks and has hit too many barrels. He has 59 strikeouts, but 29 walks and 13 home runs allowed. He does have a 62.7 percent LOB%, so he could be in line for some positive regression soon. With a low ground ball rate, Cotton’s HR/FB% is basically league average. We usually see guys like that have lower ERAs and higher xFIPs, but Cotton’s LOB% is not where it needs to be. The Oakland defense has done that to a few of its starters this season.

Every start has been a bit of a struggle for Cotton this season and he’s allowed six HR over his last three outings. He did face much better lineups in those starts than he will today, but I’m disappointed with the 25-year-old’s performance this season. I expected bigger things, given last year’s MLB performance and his MiLB track record.

Pelfrey may be the latest one injected with the pixie dust serum that Don Cooper carries around. Pelfrey has a 3.56 ERA with a 4.40 FIP and a 5.11 xFIP. Obviously the advanced metrics aren’t thrilled with the awful strikeout rate and the below average walk rate, but Pelfrey seems to be getting pretty fortunate on balls in play. I wouldn’t expect that to continue.

I will say this…these are two solid bullpens. The A’s have a deep group with Sean Doolittle back in the mix and the White Sox have gotten some excellent relief work from guys like Anthony Swarzak and Tommy Kahnle. With yesterday’s blowout win, Chicago was able to rest some guys. If you can stomach it, I think there’s a fairly decent chance that this game stays under. It might be worrisome in the first five innings, so perhaps you’ll want to live bet the under, but these two bullpens have a lot of depth and a lot of talent.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis (-120); Total: 9

Jameson Taillon makes his third start since returning from the disabled list and he’ll face Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals. Taillon had a DL stint to get some attention for testicular cancer. Taillon is having a fine season with a 3.38 ERA, a 3.76 FIP, and a 3.80 xFIP. Taillon’s first two starts back have been a little bit uneasy as he works his way back into a rhythm. Fortunately, he’s facing a Cardinals team that hasn’t played well for the better part of three weeks, so this is a decent spot to find a groove.

Taillon has really good stuff and above average command. He’s carrying a bit of a BABIP this season, but he’s generally had low BABIPs and low home run rates throughout his career. He looks like a good guy to bet on long-term. As far as this start, it’s tough to say because he is trying to get a feel for his arsenal and work back into a rhythm. I generally don’t like betting guys like that, especially those that don’t have a great margin for error because of velocity or strikeout rates.

On the other hand, Adam Wainwright basically has no margin for error. The right-hander has a 5.75 ERA with a 4.26 FIP and a 4.42 xFIP. He’s given up a ton of hard contact this season that has led to a .358 BABIP against. He’s also walked 8.8 percent of opposing hitters, which is easily the highest mark of his career. The Pirates offense is pretty hit or miss, so we’ll have to see if they can take advantage. Wainwright’s underlying metrics do suggest a bit of positive regression, as seen by the 5.75 ERA and 4.42 xFIP. He has a 4.65 SIERA, though, so be careful expecting too much.

I haven’t had a good feel for either of these teams this season. I don’t tonight either.

Houston (-105) at Seattle; Total: 9

Joe Musgrove and Felix Hernandez are the listed starters for this AL West showdown in the Pacific Northwest. The Mariners are swinging some good bats right now and they’re going to need some run support for King Felix. What immediately strikes me about this game is the total. Musgrove is rotation filler with a 5.09 ERA, a 4.74 FIP, and a 4.59 xFIP. Hernandez is coming back off of a DL stint and he had a 4.73 ERA with a 4.98 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP before then. The xFIP is low because of an ugly home run rate and an elite walk rate, but why should we expect his command to be on point?

Musgrove has allowed a .434 SLG to lefties and a .540 SLG to righties, so hitters from both sides have been able to have some success in terms of extra-base hits. The Mariners have a lot of guys with gap-to-gap power and their offense has steadily been moving up the ranks. Felix just isn’t the same pitcher that people remember from his glory days. He had a 3.82 ERA with a 4.63 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP last season. Hernandez’s velocity has dropped and his command has dropped along with it. He’s still above average at inducing weak contact, but Houston has a lot of good hitters and a very deep lineup one through nine.

This looks like an over to me. At the very least, I’d look at the first five over.

Friday MLB Betting Preview
Americasline.com

American League Central foes meet up for the start of a weekend series Friday night as the first-place Minnesota Twins look to keep the Cleveland Indians at bay.

In Friday’s series opener Carlos Carrasco (6-3, 3.36) will get the start for Cleveland and Nik Turley (0-0, 9.00) will toe the rubber for Minnesota.

Carrasco picked up a win over the Chicago White Sox in his last start after allowing two runs on seven hits over five innings. This will be his first start of the season against the Twins, but in his career against Minnesota he is 2-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 14 games.

Turley will be making only his second Major League start. In his debut against the San Francisco Giants he lasted four innings after allowing four runs on eight hits.

In six games between Minnesota and Cleveland this season the Indians hold the lead at 4-2, which includes a three-game sweep in Minnesota in April. In their last 10 games at Target Field the Indians are 8-2.

Shifting to the National League two teams headed in opposite directions clash Friday night when the Cincinnati Reds play host to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers had won six straight heading into Thursday night’s action, while the Reds were on a six-game losing streak. All six losses came on the road, and the Reds have actually won four in a row at home.

Los Angeles will start Alex Wood (6-0, 2.01) and Cincinnati will go with Tim Adleman (4-2, 4.34). Wood faced the Reds in his last start and allowed three runs on five hits over 5 2-3 innings in a no decision. Adleman faced the Dodgers last time out and also came away with a no decision after surrendering three runs on five hits in five innings.

The top pitching matchup on Friday could be in the Washington Nationals at the New York Mets matchup, where Nationals ace Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.36) will take on the Mets’ Steven Matz (1-0, 1.29).

Scherzer is coming off a loss against the Texas Rangers in which he gave up three runs in 7 1-3 innings with 10 strikeouts. In his last four starts he’s racked up 48 strikeouts in 32 innings. In his last start against the Mets in late April Scherzer had some trouble and took the loss after giving up five runs on nine hits over six innings.

Matz made his season debut last week after starting the season on the DL. He secured a win against the Atlanta Braves after allowing only one run over seven strong innings.

Washington is 4-2 versus the Mets this season, but entered the series opener on Thursday having lost five of their last six overall.

Mariners host Astros
By: StatFox.com

Two red-hot teams clash when the Astros take on the Mariners in Seattle Friday night.

Both the Astros and Mariners are really playing some great baseball right now, as Houston has won four straight and Seattle has won five straight. The Astros have been the best team in baseball pretty much all season, but this was a much-needed streak for the Mariners. They could have very well slipped out of the postseason race, but they are now very much in the thick of things for an AL Wild Card spot. Starting in this Friday night game are RHP Joe Musgrove (4-6, 5.09 ERA, 52 K) for Houston and RHP Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73 ERA, 22 K) for Seattle. One trend that will have the Astros feeling confident in this game is the fact that they are 16-4 against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. The Mariners, meanwhile, are an impressive 20-7 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. Both teams are relatively close to full strength entering this one, so injuries shouldn’t factor into the outcome.

The Astros are playing well coming into this game and are hoping to keep it rolling. They are, however, playing a red-hot Mariners team, so they’ll need a good outing from Musgrove here. Musgrove is capable of shutting his opponents down, but he is coming off of a very poor outing against Boston. Musgrove got the Sunday Night Baseball start against the Sox last week, and the righty allowed five earned runs in only 5.2 innings of work. Houston will need him to come through with at least a quality start in this one. He has been mediocre against Seattle this season, allowing five earned runs in 10.1 innings of work. Musgrove did not pitch into the sixth inning of either of his two starts against them, and it would be nice if he could here. Offensively, 2B Jose Altuve and SS Carlos Correa are two players to look out for here. Altuve is 13-for-26 with four doubles and two RBI against Hernandez in his career. Correa, meanwhile, is 4-for-8 with a double, a homer, and three RBI against the righty.

The Mariners are hoping to win their sixth straight game on Friday and they’ll need Felix Hernandez to recapture his superstar form in order to do that. Hernandez has not been himself the past few seasons, and he really struggled before hitting the DL at the end of April. Since this is his first game back, the team will likely take it a bit easy on him. That means they won’t be counting on him to work that far into this game, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be okay with a subpar outing. The Mariners need him to be King Felix for as long as he’s on the mound. As for run support, 2B Robinson Cano (.284 BA, 13 HR, 48 RBI) is one guy that could help his teammate out here. Cano is as hot as could be lately, as he is 3-for-8 with a double, two homers, and eight RBI over the past two games. He will be hoping to keep it up moving forward.

Friday MLB Betting Preview
By Sportsbook.ag

Colorado vs. L.A Dodgers

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Colorado (+195), L.A (-230), Total 8

Fading the Dodgers last night didn't work out too well as L.A continued to hit HR's and beat up on the Mets. That makes it seven wins in a row and 13 of their 14 for the Dodgers as they've started to exert their dominance and try to take control of the NL West. They should get a much stiffer test from one of those teams chasing them in that division race as the Colorado Rockies come to town.

The Rockies are licking their own wounds after getting demolished by Arizona the past few days and it's tough for many to believe that any team can step in front of this Dodgers freight train that is just steamrolling opponent after opponent. As -230 favorites tonight, oddsmakers have definitely put a premium price tag on the Dodgers, but is there a better bet out there on this game?

Admittedly, stepping in front of this Dodgers train right now isn't exactly thrilling, but I'm not sure how you can ignore taking a shot at these inflated odds. Taking the Mets last night didn't work out, but Colorado is a much better team than New York, and while they haven't shown it the past few days, Colorado will be ready to play tonight.

In fact, it's not hard to argue that despite their series with Arizona being a big one as well, the Rockies had one eye already looking towards this weekend set in L.A and got caught looking ahead. I've always said that when teams do get caught looking ahead, when that game/opponent finally arrives, you'll want to back that side more often than not.

Throw in the nearly 2-1 price on the Rockies and it's tough to ignore this play from a pure value standpoint alone.

Obviously there is no value on a losing selection, but lefty Alex Wood isn't likely to dominate the Rockies like he did in Colorado back in the middle of May. Wood struck out 10 in six innings of work en route to a 4-0 Dodgers victory, and the last time he shut down Rockies hitters in a game, he was absolutely lit up in the following meeting.

Even if the Dodgers bats stay hot and continuing to deposit baseballs into the bleachers, if there is one NL team that can match L.A stroke for stroke it would be this Rockies squad.

Finally, we can't forget about the fact that Colorado is the best NL team (4th overall) against left-handed pitching this year in terms of average, and both Nolan Arenado and Ian Desmond have two career HR's vs. Wood.

Those two bats are the heart of the Rockies order more often than not these days and if the guys ahead of them like Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu – who both have solid career numbers vs. Wood as well – can get on base, then the Rockies should have a chance to come out on top late.

With big underdogs like this all you really want is a chance to win the game late and even with how hot the Dodgers have been, if Colorado plays their brand of baseball, they'll have a great shot to come out on top.

Best Bet: Colorado +195

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals (-265, 9)

The Washington Nationals return home after a seven-game road trip and welcome the Cincinnati Reds to town Friday for the opening game of their three day weekend series.

Both teams come into today's game riding pretty decent offensive waves. The Reds have lost 11 of their last 12 games, but they can still hit the baseball. Over their last four they are averaging 5.5 runs per game and they rank fourth in the National League in home runs and third in OPS. The Nationals, of course, are the top offensive team in the N.L., topping the stats tables in almost every category (runs, home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS), and are averaging 6.5 runs per game over their last 10 contests.

The Reds will be sending right-hander Luis Castillo to the hill at Nationals Park for his major league debut. Castillo brings 100 mile per hour potential and a low walk rate up from AA this season (10 walks over 56 innings)...but this isn't AA.

Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Nats and he has been hittable at home this season with a 4.15 ERA and six home runs allowed on home soil. The other factor for totals bettors in this game should be the Nationals bullpen that is still dealing with injury issues and ranks last in the National League with a 5.04 ERA.

The Over is 7-1-1 in the Reds' last nine road games and 9-2-1 in their last 12 overall. The Over is 8-2 in the Nats' last 10 overall, including their last three home games.

Wind: 15-18 miles per hour OUT to right-center field.

Pick: Over 9

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-200, 9.5)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks go to battle this evening in Phoenix in the first of a four-game series and this one is a clear-cut case of two teams headed in exact opposite directions. The Phils come to town as losers of 13 of their last 15, including losses in their last seven road games. The D-Backs return home off a very successful eight-game road trip where they ripped off seven victories and they are 12-2 in their last 14 games overall.

Phillies rookie Mark Leiter will make his first big league start today. He has made 12 appearances out of the bullpen this season and his road results are rather alarming with an ERA of 8.68, a WHIP of 1.61, and only five strikeouts to go along with eight walks over 9.1 innings pitched.

Lefty Patrick Corbin gets the ball for Arizona and he has been very good at Chase Field this season with a team win/loss record of 7-1 and a solid ERA of 3.45. He will be facing a Phillies offense that ranks second worst in the N.L. in runs scored (275) and third from the bottom in OPS (.699).

The Phillies will likely be happy to get four or five innings out of Leiter before handing the ball over to the bullpen. That's more good news for the Diamondbacks as the Phils' pen ranks near the bottom of the National League with an ERA of 4.90.

The Diamondbacks swept the Phillies last week in Philadelphia and anything other than a four-game sweep at home this weekend would be considered a bit of a surprise. Feel comfortable laying the extra run tonight.

Pick: D-Backs -1.5 (-105)

Yesterday's Picks: 0-2
Season To Date: 72-58-7

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers (7-0, 1.90 ERA, $354)

The Dodgers lead the majors in opponents batting average .289 and ERA 3.35 and of course the leader of the rotation is ‘The Claw’ Clayton Kershaw. But he isn’t doing things alone, 26-year-old Alex Wood has been dealing.

Wood is 5-0 with a 0.97 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP in his last six outings. The crown jewel of this stretch was his last start at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, where he dominated the Reds over eight innings allowing four hits and the only run coming on a two-out solo home run in the 8th inning.

Wood and the Dodgers are big chalk at -200 at home against the Colorado Rockies.

Slumping: Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox (3-9, 5.05, $-561)

In what is starting to become a weekly appearance in the Line Drive, Rick Porcello continues to stink. The defending American League Cy Young Award winner is currently sitting at 242 out of 251 on our Covers Starting Pitcher Money Board.

Even by 2017 standards Porcello’s last three starts have been particularly rough. He is 0-2 with a gross 8.35 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, opponents batting average of .372. In a very weak defense of the Red Sox righty, in two of those starts his lineup scored a combined one run.

Porcello and the Red Sox are -170 home chalk against the Los Angeles Angels.

Friday's Top Trends

* The Baltimore Orioles have allowed five or more runs in 19 consecutive games. Orioles/Rays Total: 8.5.
* The Cincinnati Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 overall. +225 today @ Nationals.
* The Cleveland Indians are 14-3 in their last 17 meetings with the Minnesota Twins. CLE -180 today at home.
* Over is 12-1 in the Los Angeles Dodgers' last 13 overall. Rockies/Dodgers Total: 8.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

There is a chance of thunderstorms in the Big Apple tonight where the Rangers and Yankees are scheduled to play. The forecast is looking bleak and don’t be surprised if this game doesn’t happen. There is also a chance of thunderstorms developing and 50-55 percent chance of rain at first pitch at Progressive Field where the Indians host the Twins.

Hitter’s winds could be a factor in a few ballparks today:

* Reds at Nationals (Total: 9): 15-18 MPH wind blowing out to right-center field.
* Rangers at Yankees (Total: 9) 10 MPH wind blowing out to left-center field.
* Angeles at Red Sox (Total: 10.5) 16 MPH wind blowing out to left-center field.
* Athletics at White Sox (Total: 10) 12 MPH wind blowing out to center.
* Mets at Giants (Total: 8.5) 14 MPH wind blowing out to left-center field.

Ump Of The Day

Tom Hallion gets the pads today at Marlins Park where the Marlins are hosting the Cubs. Hallion has been one of baseball’s top OVER umpires this season with the over cashing 12 of his 15 (80 percent) appearances calling balls and strikes. When the total is nine or higher the OVER has paid out six of seven times.

Another trend for bettors to look out for with Hallion his lack of affection for the defending World Series champions. The Cubs have won only one of the last seven games with Hallion behind the dish.

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Cincinnati (30-41) at Washington (43-29)

Scheduled rotation: Castillo (0-0) vs. Strasburg (8-2), Bailey (0-0) vs. Ross (3-3), Feldman (5-5) vs. Roark (6-4)
Series price: Nationals -320, Reds +260

The Reds have lost 11 of their last 12, but they get some good news as pitcher Homer Bailey will make his first start of the season on Saturday. This is the first meeting between these clubs this season. Last season the Nationals won the series 4-3 with six of the games going 'over' the total. The total might be the angle to attack here rather than laying inflated lines with Washington or sweating a bet on the Reds to win. The Reds have gone 7-1-1 to the 'over' in their last nine road games and are 42-25-4 to the 'over' this season. Washington has gone 'over' in eight of its last 10 games.

Minnesota (36-34) at Cleveland (39-32)

Scheduled rotation: Mejia (1-3) vs. Bauer (6-5), Gibson (4-5) vs. Kluber (6-2), Santana (9-4) vs. Tomlin (4-8 )
Series price: Indians -320, Twins +260

We're going to see the Royals get back into the American League Central mix, but right now this is it for division drama in June: Minnesota vs. Cleveland. The White Sox are dead and the last place Tigers are tanking. Last weekend it was the Twins in first-place and the Indians promptly swept the four-game series and took over the division lead. They're up 2.5 games and the Twins probably believe they can return the favor. The road is where Minnesota has been at its best this season, sporting a 20-9 record as a visitor. However, the Indians basically own the Twins. They've won eight of 10 this season, including the past five meetings, and they've won 14 of 17 dating back to last season. Nine of the past 12 meetings have stayed 'under' the total in this series.

Pittsburgh (33-40) at St. Louis (33-38)

Scheduled rotation: Taillon (3-2) vs. Wainwright (7-5), Cole (5-6) vs. Lynn (5-4), Kuhl (2-6) vs. Leake (5-6)
Series price: Cardinals -155, Pirates +135

This is only the fourth encounter of the season between these two and the first three meetings in St. Louis were identical 2-1 scores won by the Cardinals. The Cards have now won six straight against the Bucs -- all at Busch Stadium. The trend that stands out is St. Louis going 'over' the total in seven of its last nine games to make them 39-30-2 to the 'over' on the season. Neither of these teams are doing anything inspiring and neither look capable of making a serious playoff run. But for this series, the Cards have the better starters going and should continue their mastery of Pittsburgh and win the series.

Philadelphia (23-48) at Arizona (46-27)

Scheduled rotation: Leiter (0-0) vs. Corbin (6-6), Lively (1-1) vs. Ray (7-3), Hellickson (5-5) vs. Greinke (8-4), Pivetta (1-3) vs. Walker (6-3)
Series price: Diamondbacks -350, Phillies +290

Arizona has won 12 of its last 14 games and are 25-9 in the last 34. Even though they have the second-best record in the National League, they're 1.5-games behind the equally hot Dodgers in the National League West. The D'Backs starting rotation has the lowest ERA in the N.L. and its hitters have the second-best OPS at .788. Arizona went into Philly last week and completed a three-game sweep in a tougher than expected series. The Snakes will toss the kitchen sink at the Phillies for this four-game series with all of their top starters taking the hill. The Phillies have lost 13 of their last 15.

Houston (50-24) at Seattle (38-37)

Scheduled rotation: Musgrove (4-6) vs. Hernandez (2-2), McCullers (6-1) vs. Gaviglio (3-1), Peacock (4-1) vs. Miranda (6-3)
Series price: Astros -135, Mariners +115

The Mariners have won five straight and are one game above .500, which puts them in second place of the AL West. Unfortunately, the clubs is 12.5 games behind the Astros but they get a boost Friday night with Felix Hernandez making his first start since April. After a mini-slump, the first-place Astros just completed a four-game sweep at Oakland to push their MLB-best road record to 27-8 this season. Going back to 2016, the Astros are on an incredible 41-16 run in their last 57 road games. Houston has won five of the seven meetings this season, including beating Hernandez on opening day. Without James Paxton starting for Seattle in this series, Houston at -135 to win two of three on the road seems cheap in this spot.

Colorado (47-28) at LA Dodgers (48-26)

Scheduled rotation: Freeland (8-4) vs. Wood (7-0), Chatwood (6-7) vs. Kershaw (10-2), Marquez (5-3) vs. McCarthy (6-3)
Series price: Dodgers -330, Rockies +250

Okay, so the Dodgers might never lose a game again. They've won seven straight and 13 of their last 14 to finally take first-place away from Colorado in the NL West. The Rockies can take it back this weekend, but it's sure going to be tough. Friday will be a tough win just because the Dodgers always win on Friday, or at least their past eight Friday's they've won. Saturday, Clayton Kershaw is on the mound and they've won nine straight behind him to make him the most profitable pitcher in baseball at +8.8 units. The Rockies come off a tough series at home where the Diamondbacks took the final two games by a combined score of 26-8. These two squads have met nine times this season with Colorado winning five of them. The 'under' has connected in 18 of the past 25 meetings, but the Dodger bats will test that as they've gone 'over' in 12 of their last 13.