Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, June 23rd, 2017

DAVE COKIN

TIGERS VS. PADRES
PLAY: PADRES +123

Not much to this, as it’s just a continuation of the fade Detroit ploy. I’m assuming Brad Ausmus won’t be fired between now and game time. Otherwise, I’m just going to keep going against the Tigers till he’s relieved of his managerial duties.

Looking at this game on its own, Michael Fulmer is likely to be decent against the Padres. But even Fulmer has struggled some lately, and Padres righty Luis Perdomo has been pretty sharp in four of his last five starts.

But I’m not really trying to build a case for backing San Diego. They just happen to be the opponent for the Tigers tonight. And I’m playing with plenty of house money with this fade angle, so I’ll do it again here. Bonus is I get the Padres as home dogs.

Marc Lawrence

Twins vs. Indians
Play:Twins +169

Edges - Twins: 9-1 away Game One of a series this season… Indians: Bauer 3-5 home career team starts in this series. With Mejia looking to avenge e a 9-3 loss suffered to Tribe at home in most recent start last Friday, and the Tribe returning home from a week-long road trip, we recommend a 1* play on Minnesota.

Ben Burns

Angels vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 10½

This is sky-high total, but for good reason in my opinion. Alex Meyer (3-3, 3.52 ERA) who has been hit-or-miss this year, most recently went six scoreless while striking out nine in a win over Kansas City on Saturday. Meyer is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA at home, but just 1-3 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA on the road. Rick Porcello (3-9, 5.05) won the AL Cy Young last year, but he’s looked poor for the most part this season. Porcello was most recently rocked for seven runs over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Astros on Saturday. Porcello has struggled with consistency, but I’ll point out that the Red Sox have seen the total go under the number in four of six home games this season when the total is set at 10 or 10.5 (and note that LA has seen total dip below number in 10 of 14 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range). Porcello has the pedigree to return to form, but Meyer has been a train-wreck on the road all year.

Art Aronson

Rangers vs. Yankees
Play: Over 10

The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish (6-5, 3.35 ERA) who was most recently crushed for five runs off eight hits over five innings against the Mariners on Sunday. It was Darvish’s worst outing of 2017 as he’d also go on to throw first-pitch strikes to just 11 of 23 batters he faced. Darvish has started to fade as we approach the half-way mark, giving up 15 runs over his last 30.1 innings of work. The Yanks counter with Masahiro Tanaka (5-7, 6.34) who is laboring through the worst campaign of his career, most recently getting shelled for five runs off eight hits and a walk in a loss to the A’s on Saturday. Tanaka gave up three home runs in the setback to push his HR/9 to 2.5 on the season. With these two volatile starters going head-to-head.

Will Rogers

Oakland vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago

The set-up: The Oakland A's swept a four-game series at home with the NY Yankees (last Thursday through Sunday) but followed that success by losing all four games of a home series with the Astros this week (Monday through Thursday). The A's are 31-42 on the season and find themselves in the AL West basement, 18 1/2 games back of the Astros. They travel to Chicago to open a three-game series with the White Sox, who are kicking off a 10-game homestand. Chicago is likely happy to be back at Guaranteed Rate Field, after playing 15 of its last 19 games on the road. After all, the White Sox are 15-12 at home but just 17-27 on the road.

The pitching matchup: Jharel Cotton (4-7 & 5.40 ERA) will get the starts for Oakland and RH Mike Pelfrey (3-5 & 3.56 ERA) for Chicago. Cotton ended a five-start win-less drought his last time out, allowing three runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings of Sunday's 4-3 win over the Yankees. He had gone 0-4 (A's were 0-5) in his previous five starts, after opening the season a respectable 3-3. This marks Cotton's first start against the White Sox. Pelfrey is coming off one of his better performances of 2017, matching his season high by going six innings and allowing only one run on four hits to win 5-2 on Saturday at Toronto. It marked only the second start of the year in which Pelfrey did not allow a walk and boosted his record to 3-1 over his last seven appearances (six starts / team is 4-2). However, Pelfrey has lost all four career starts against the Athletics, sporting a 7.97 ERA.

The pick: Pelfrey's career record against Oakland offers some concern but as noted, he's pitched very well his last six starts (7 ERs allowed over 31 IP for a 2.03 ERA). The White Sox have averaged 5.22 RPG at home and face an Oakland team which is 9-25 on the road, allowing 5.56 RPG. Take the home team.

Larry Ness

New York at San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

The Mets opened a 10-game road trip by losing all four games this week at Dodger Stadium (outscored 36-11) and now head to San Francisco for a three-game weekend series with the Giants, having lost eight of 10 to fall 12 games back of the Nats in the NL East at 31-41. Meanwhile, the Giants return home off a 1-7 road trip that ended with a 12-11 defeat in Atlanta last night. That gives San Francisco nine losses in it last 10, falling to 4-15 its last 19 and squarely in the NL West basement at 27-48 (21 1/2 games back of the first-place Dodgers).

Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.63 ERA) will take the mound tonight for the Mets, up against Ty Blach (4-4, 4.23 ERA) of the Giants. Lugo made his 2017 debut June 11 in Atlanta, allowing just one run over seven innings of a 2-1 victory at Atlanta (he missed time earlier with an elbow injury). However, he allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits over 6.2 innings in last Saturday's 7-4 home loss to the Nats. The 27-year-old Lugo lost his only career outing against the Giants back on Aug 19 of last season when he gave up three runs on seven hits in 6.2 at San Francisco (4.05 ERA).

Blach has been trying to fill the shoes of Madison Bumgarner but his win-less streak reached three starts on Sunday as he allowed three runs on seven hits over 6.2 innings of a no-decision at Colorado (Rockies won 7-5). Blach had won four straight starts prior to his recent drought and will be facing New York for the first time in his career. The 2017 Giants (27-48) stand tied with the 1985 edition for the worst 75-game record in West Coast franchise history.

Both teams are disappointments so far but except for his last outing, Blach has been very good at AT&T Park. Blach allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 5.2 innings of an 8-1 loss to KC on June 13 but his home ERA had been 1.75! prior to that outing (7 ERs in 36 IP). Take the Giants over the Mets in this one.

Big Al

Minnesota vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland

Few pitchers have been more inconsistent of the past several seasons than Cleveland RH Trevor Bauer. Bauer can look like Max Scherzer in some games and then pitch like someone who just got called up to the Majors for the first time in September the next. But if there's one thing that Bauer seems to do consistently lately, it's beat up on the Minnesota Twins. Bauer has thrown quality outings in each of his last four starts against Minnie, and Cleveland has won all of those games - going back to last August - by a combined score of 20-7. The Twins will send inexperienced southpaw Adalberto Mejia to the mound for his 10th start of the season tonight. Mejia has a total of just 43 Major League innings under his belt, but that's not potentially his biggest problem this evening. The Indians have been absolutely demolishing left-handed pitching this season, registering more runs and hits against southpaws than any other team in the A.L. so far. This plus the fact that Mejia has an ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.60 could add up to major trouble for him and the Twins. Minny is 3-14 in the last 17 meetings with the Tribe.

Jim Feist

Brewers at Braves
Pick: Under

Milwaukee starter Jimmy Nelson (3.28 ERA) is throwing well and the team is 5-0 under the total when Nelsons starts during game 1 of a series. Atlanta is #16 in baseball in runs scored, #22 in slugging. Atlanta is on a 9-1-1 run under the total at home, 7-3-1 under at home against a winning team. And the Under is 10-4-1 in the last 15 meetings.

Dave Essler

Padres +110

If the total is coming down (it is) then that makes this even a stronger play IMO. The Padres beat the Cubs two days ago in Chicago and had yesterday off. The Tigers lost last night and flew down from Seattle, which although on the West Coast is a three hour flight. The Padres' pen has been in great form, and obviously Detroit's bullpen isn't, and hasn't been. In the NL park there's a higher likelihood that Fulmer gets PH for sooner rather than later, and Perdomo is capable of keeping the ball down and in the park.

Other things

I know Atlanta played long and late, but Milwaukee as a road favorite isn't my idea of a solid bet. I think the overnight line is a knee-jerk, over reaction and will wait for lineups there.

They're loving the Giants this morning, even with the late night flight from Atlanta. I can't go there because the Giants chance for winning pretty much rests solely on Blach, IMO - at 8 I do like the over.

I like the over in the Yankees game - Tanaka sucks and so does the Rangers' pen, so I could also make a reasonable argument for the Rangers F5 here.

The "sharps" seem to love them some A's this morning. I can understand why, but I'm still trying to wrap my head around Oakland as a road favorite -

John Fisher

Cincinnati at Washington
Play: Washington -1.5

The Nationals are the NLs 4th best team at this point and if they don't find better relief pitching they will be looking at another disappointing playoff. Lucky for them they play the awful Reds who just got battered for 11/12 losses. Taking the Run line makes sense here as SP Strasburg has a .216 BAA and a 1.1 WHIP and is 4-0 at night games. Reds bringing up flame thrower Castillo from AA. He looks promising but going against this Nationals team will be a rude awakening.

SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA +6 over Calgary

The 104th Grey Cup was a harsh reminder to the Calgary Stampeders that the CFL’s regular season doesn’t mean Jack. Or should we say, Hank? Despite going undefeated at home (9-0) and running roughshod through the Western Division, the Stampeders have just as much to show for their 2016 season as the eight other clubs that reside outside of Ottawa. It’s easy to poke fun at the CFL’s best team from a year ago failing miserably on the league’s biggest stage, but that’s what happens when you lose a championship game as a -9½ point choice. On the field, the Stampeders still have 2016’s Most Outstanding Player in Bo Levi Mitchell but they lost his muscle, as offensive lineman Derek Dennis left for greener pastures in Saskatchewan. A quarterback is only as good as his line and 2016’s Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman leaves big shoes to fill.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Stampeders are getting older, not better. Injuries are also going to be a concern early in the season. Calgary will likely be without its top pass rusher in Cordarro Law for the entire season. The Stamps defensive line takes another hit, as Frank Beltre is going “all in” on his shot down south with the New York Jets. Defensive back Brandon Smith will miss the start of the year and star linebacker Deron Mayo who is recovering from a broken ankle is questionable in Week 1.

Let’s be frank here -- the CFL regular season isn’t all that important unless you like to gamble. Six of these nine teams will make the playoffs and if Ottawa proved anything last season, it’s that you just have to get in for your shot at glory. It’s not just that 2016 was a disappointment either, as this era of Stampeders football has won at least 14 games in each of the last 4 seasons with two Grey Cup appearances and only one championship ring to show for it. While the Stamps aren’t likely to fall off the map, do they really need to kill themselves again just to win 15 games when 11 or 12 will do?

The Stamps return most of their 15-2-1 squad from a year ago and still boast arguably the most talented roster in the league on paper. Oddsmakers seem to agree, as the Stamps are a just a +270 favourite to win the Grey Cup. Because of their recent success and pedigree in the market (13-5 against the spread in 2016), the Stamps are going to be overvalued especially early in the season and we’ll look to take advantage of that, as they head to Ottawa for a Grey Cup rematch.

The CFL’s third trip to the nation’s capital has finally taken hold of a city that has been longing for the glory days of the Rough Riders, but even the newly minted Grey Cup Champions could not have predicted the success the Redblacks have had in just three seasons in the league. Ottawa has played in back-to-back Grey Cup games while cashing in last year’s effort in an overtime thriller over these aforementioned Stampeders.

With Smilin’ Hank Burris headed down the dusty trail, this is now officially Trevor Harris’s team and that is a good thing. When healthy, Harris is a top shelf CFL quarterback capable of putting up huge numbers every single night. Harris appeared in just 12 games but still was able to throw for over 3300 yards. It was more like 10 games because in two starts versus Winnipeg and Saskatchewan he completed a total of three passes for 24-yards. Harris is a gamebreaker, simple as that.

Ottawa lost both Chris Williams and Ernest Jackson to free agency but they still have some playmakers for Harris to work with in Greg Ellingson and the underappreciated Brad Sinopoli. Williams and Jackson will be hard to replace but with Harris at the helm, Juron Criner and Joshua Stangby will have the opportunity. In limited action, last season, Criner averaged 22.4 yards per catch and the Redblacks coaching staff believe Stangby has the skills to make an impact. The Redblacks also picked up a pair of former Argo pass catchers in Kenny Shaw and Diontae Spencer.

While the offense looks to be ready to lob bombs again this season, the Redblacks’ defense has some questions but the front office brass was sure to provide quality answers. Out are defensive backs Abdul Kanneh, Michell White and Forrest Hightower. In are A.J. Jefferson and Imoan Claiborne. They are both capable replacements but defense was never this team's forte anyway. Coming into 2017 it’s hard not to think these Redblacks are being disrespected. Sure, a sub .500 record for the East Division champs looks bad on paper but it’s unlikely we’ll see every team in the East finish with more losses than wins. The Redblacks are +700 to repeat at champions which is crazy considering they have a great shot to win this division and host another East Final. The disregard of the these Redblacks begins right here in Week 1. This line versus the Stampeders opened with the champs as a +2½ point home pooch, which is bad enough. Now, the market has spoken and the line has now ballooned up to +6. The last time we checked Trevor Harris didn't go missing overnight. Upset possibility.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh/ST. LOUIS Under 9

Adam Wainwright is riding a hot streak at home where he is 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA. The difficulties Wainwright had locating his curve in 2016 appear to be behind him and he is working all his other pitches off the bender the way he did in 2014 and earlier. This isn’t to suggest that Wainwright is going back to being the ace that he was at his peak but he’s a gamer, he’s pitching well and he could certainly thrive here.

Then there’s Jameson Taillon, who just might be one of the top five pitchers in the game. In fact, it’s been such a long time since we have seen a pitcher with this much talent this far under the radar. Taillon’s stuff is beyond filthy and thus, the price on the Pirates with Taillon starting makes them a must play. Furthermore, win or lose, the total of 9 in a game that features Taillon is a reflection of the market pounding overs this year and cashing too many of them. Thus, we’ll have two bets going here. Pittsburgh and the game to go under.

Jameson Taillon features a plus-plus well-located fastball and a plus-plus curve. His fastball sits 95 and reaches 98. His release helps get downhill with slight arm-side run. His curve ranges from a big breaking hammer to sharp with drop. Dude has two variances in his outstanding curve, which almost works as two unique pitches and ultimately adds to his five pitch arsenal. Taillon is under the radar due to two lost seasons following TJ surgery. He had an excellent debut last year and he has top prospect pedigree. His rise this year in his swing and miss rate and his first-pitch strike rate hint at potential for higher K’s, although he has 39 punchouts in 45 innings. He also features an elite groundball rate of 53% and he’s very likely going to be stretched out further here after being limited to five innings or 90 pitches in his last two starts after returning from testicular surgery. Taillon comes in with a 2.91 xERA over his last two starts and his rise to ace status is going to happen quickly. Buy him before that happens.

L.A. Angels +154 over BOSTON

First off, the Angels are playing well. The general consensus is that they are a weak team without Mike Trout but there are several bats in this lineup that are heating up, including Cameron Maybin’s, Kole Calhoun’s and Andrelton Simmons’. With eight wins over their past 14 games, including two of three over Houston and four of six against the Yanks, the Halos will now take their act to Boston to face Rick Porcello.

When we ran a pre-Opening Day check on Rick Porcello, we pegged him more as a mid-rotation cog than a repeat Cy Young contender. Fast forward three months, and Porcello's 5.05 ERA has fallen short of our pessimistic expectations. Porcello continues to give up more fly balls at the expense of a once-elite groundball rate. He's throwing more four-seam fastballs (48% fly-balls%, 29% of pitches) than ever before, and the added loft paired with hr/f regression has led to a career-high hr/9. We’ll never see the 2016 version of Rick Porcello again, as that was the luck factor going haywire. That said, he’s still a good starter that every team would like to have. However, when he’s overpriced like he is here, we’re going to pounce.

Alex Meyer is past the age (he’s 27) where we tend to get excited about prospects but a high-90s fastball and a slider that can hit the upper-80s (it is classified as a curve by most Fx tracking systems) does tend to get people excited regardless of age. The problem with Meyer is the same as it ever was. He doesn’t throw enough strikes. Meyer has abandoned his changeup and is mixing in some four-seam fastballs for the first time, but he is still walking over six batters per nine. That’s the bottom line for Meyer, and if he issues so many free passes he is always going to be a risky play but the risk is worth the reward here because his stuff is so filthy. Meyer has 55 K’s in 46 frames. Using his four-seamer more often, Meyer struck out nine and walked six in his last start. His swinging strike rate in that start was 23%. Meyer also has an elite groundball rate of 51% so all the ingredients are in place for him to dominate.

Lastly, and this is the main reason for this choice, there is an angle in play here that we’re always looking out for. You see, there’s a big ceremony happening in Boston tonight. The Red Sox were off yesterday but not really, as other obligations interfered. Tonight, Big Papi’s jersey will be retired and that ceremony figures to be one of the biggest (and loudest) in Red Sox history. You would be hard-pressed to find a more popular Red Sox player than David Ortiz was. Involved in a ceremony of this magnitude is a lot of preparation from lunches and dinners (yesterday and today) to speeches to presentations and to everything else. The players then press a little too hard because they all want to win one for the hometown hero. What usually happens in these big ceremony games is that the host doesn’t win because they are focused on so many other things besides baseball, which is why this angle has been so strong in every sport for so long.

Oakland +102 over CHICAGO

Jharel Cotton comes into this start with a 4-7 record to go along with his 5.40 ERA. Previously known for his control, the fact that Cotton is now issuing almost 4½ walks per nine innings is extremely troubling. He has had difficulty locating his changeup this season, with more misses in the zone leading to a .429 slugging percentage on the pitch (compared to a meager .061 a season ago). This has led Cotton to throw it much less frequently, which is a problem, considering that many believed it to be his best. The inconsistency makes Cotton a dicey play but it’s a risk we’re willing to make because he’s only a minor tweak away from being dominating. Cotton has 59 K’s in 67 innings. In his last start, he only walked one batter in six frames and struck out six. He has the lowest (15%) line-drive rate in MLB among qualified starters and that rate is even lower (11%) in his last five starts. Aside from all that, the South Side struggle against righties and Cotton will oppose Mike Pelfrey.

Mike Pelfrey’s 3.56 ERA looks pretty on paper but we all know who this stiff really is. For the past 11 years, Mike Pelfrey has been wallowing in mediocrity or worse. He has a career ERA of 4.53 with a career WHIP of 1.49. In six of the 11 years that he’s been pitching at this level, his ERA was over 5.00. In 56 innings this year, Pelfrey has walked 21 and struck out 35. Last year was another brutal season for Pelfrey with the lowest K-rate and command of any MLB starter (min. 100 IP) with no signs of improvement from his sub-indicators. An August back injury led to a ‘pen demotion. This year, he wasn’t even in the starting rotation until James Shields got injured and the South Side was forced to make a move. There are no improvements this year in Pelfrey’s skill set. The only thing keeping his head above water is his 84% strand rate over his last six starts but hey, at least he keeps the ball on the ground. Pelfrey is owed another $8 million in 2017, which is the real reason he has a job. We would be less nervous hunting polar bears with Mike Pelfrey than we would be backing him spotting a price. Oakland does not have much appeal on their own but damn, this is a bargain.

Power Sports

New York vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco

Last year's two NL Wild Card participants have something far more ignominous in common here in 2017 and that's they're each one of baseball's biggest disappointments. The Giants are actually dead last in net units (-23.3) and even more shocking is their 27-48 overall record and -91 run differential, which are second and third worst respectively. But the Mets (-17.9 units) aren't too far in front of them, at the betting window at least, and an early line move (in favor of SF) has "caught my eye" here, indicating the Giants are the sharp side.

Now I did just play against SF last night. They ended up losing a wild 12-11 game to Atlanta, which was probably an appropirate end to a 1-7 road trip. They're just 1-9 L10 games overall. But now they return home where they at least are more competitive (14-18). Ty Blach will get the start and while he's struggled of late, he does have a 1.093 WHIP in six home starts. He's allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of 11 starts overall. The Mets have a losing record (6-10) against left-handed starters this season.

The Mets aren't exactly playing good baseball right now either. They just got hammered by the red-hot Dodgers, losing all four games at Chavez Ravine by a cummulative score of 36-11. They've scored just five times in the last three games. Starter Seth Lugo had a tough assignment his last time out (facing Stephen Strasburg) and while he pitched decently, it still wasn't enough. This will just his third start of the year and considering the rate at which NY is allowing runs (5.9 per game on the road for the year, 7.3 overall L7 games), it's tough to like Lugo and company, especially w/ a bad bullpen (6.64 ERA, 1.730 WHIP on the road) behind him.

Scott Rickenbach

Twins vs. Indians
Play: Over 10

The Twins got shutout yesterday and that was the first time that has happened this entire season. Certainly Minnesota should be able to bounce back against Trevor Bauer. The right-hander has had success against the Twins this season but they've seen plenty of him and that repetition eventually leads to success for the hitters. Keep in mind, Bauer has a 4.84 ERA in his career against the Twins. Also, Bauer has a 5.14 ERA in his 6 home start this season and the over is 5-1 in those games! Cleveland has been hot at the plate as the Indians have scored an average of 7.6 runs per game during their current 8-1 hot streak! They should have no trouble with the offerings of the Twins Adalberto Mejia as he is winless in his last 3 starts with an 8.77 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP! He just faced the Tribe in his most recent start last week and Bauer just faced the Twins last week in his most recent start. In other words, plenty of familiarity for the hitters with the repertoire of pitches they will face tonight in Cleveland. The over is 3-0 in the Indians last 3 games. The Twins are 7-3 to the over in road games with a posted total of 10 or 10.5 runs the past 3 seasons combined. Look for more of the same here.