MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, July 21st, 2017

MLB Knowledge

National League

Cardinals @ Cubs
Martinez is 0-3, 5.28 in his last five starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. St Louis is 2-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-9-2

Arrieta is 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Cubs are 4-2 in his Wrigley starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-7-2

St Louis is 7-6 in its last 13 road games, 5-9 in road series openers. Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Chicago is 6-0 since All-Star break, 6-9 in home series openers; under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Brewers @ Phillies
Garza is 1-0, 1.65 in his last three starts; his last four stayed under. Milwaukee is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2

Nola is 3-1, 1.78 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Phillies are 3-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-8

Brewers lost their last five games, are 8-7 in road series openers- their last six games stayed under. Philly won three of last four games, is 3-11 in home series openers. Under is 7-0-1 in their last eight home games.

Marlins @ Reds
Urena is 1-2, 7.11 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Marlins are 5-1 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-2

Bailey is 2-3, 10.13 in five starts this year (over 3-2). Reds lost both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-1

Miami is 1-5 since All-Star break, 6-9 in road series openers. Over is 6-3 in their last nine road tilts. Cincinnati lost seven of its last eight home games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Reds are 7-9 in home series openers.

Pirates @ Rockies
Williams is 0-1, 3.63 in his last four starts; under is 5-0 in his last five. Pirates are 3-3 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-5-1

Hoffman is 2-1, 6.43 in five home starts (over 3-2). Colorado is 3-2 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 7-3

Pirates are 10-2 in last 12 games, 5-10 in road series openers. Under is 13-1-1 in their last 15 games. Colorado won its last four games; they’re 12-3 in home series openers. Rockies’ last six games went over total.

Nationals @ Diamondbacks
Scherzer is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts; his last three went over. Washington is 8-3 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 14-4-1

Godley is 0-3, 5.30 in his last three starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Arizona is 3-2 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 6-5-1

Washington won six of last seven games, is 11-5 in road series openers. Nationals’ last three games stayed under. Arizona lost six of last eight games; they’re 10-5 in home series openers. Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 home games.

Braves @ Dodgers
Garcia is 0-4, 6.87 in his last six starts; over is 3-1 in his last four. Braves are 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-4

Dodgers won Wood’s last 11 starts; he is 5-0, 0.82 in his last five (under 4-1). LA is 7-0 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 11-2-1

Atlanta lost three of its last four games; over is 4-0 in their last four road games. Dodgers won 11 of their last 12 games; under is 3-2-1 in their last six home games.

Padres @ Giants
Cahill is 3-1, 2.70 in his last six starts; under is 3-0-2 in his last five. Padres are 2-4 in his road outings— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-6-1

Samardzija is 0-2, 7.62 in his last two starts; over is 5-3-1 in his last nine. Giants are 3-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-12-5

San Diego lost four of its last five road games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Giants are 3-8 in last 11 games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.

American League

Astros @ Orioles
Fiers is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Houston is 6-3 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-3

Jimenez is 1-2, 9.88 in his last three starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Orioles are 4-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1

Astros are 10-0 in game following their last ten losses; they’re 11-3 in road series openers. Over is 6-1 in their last seven road games. Baltimore won last four games- over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Orioles are 13-5 in home series openers.

Rangers @ Rays
Darvish is 0-4, 4.95 in his last six starts; under is 12-1-1 in his last 14. Texas is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-8-5

Cobb is 2-0, 0.59 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Rays are 4-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-5-2

Rangers lost its last five games, is 6-10 in road series openers. Last three Texas games went over total. Tampa Bay won six of last eight games; they’re 6-8 in home series openers. Under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Blue Jays @ Indians
Estrada is 0-4, 9.50 in his last eight starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 5-6 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-3

Bauer is 1-3, 6.75 in his last four starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Cleveland is 4-5 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-2

Toronto lost four of last six games, is 9-7 in road series openers. Under is 3-1 in their last four games. Cleveland lost six of last seven games, is 6-9 in home series openers. Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 home games.

Tigers @ Twins
Sanchez is 1-0, 4.30 in five starts this year (over 3-2). Detroit lost both his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 3-1-1

Santana is 4-3, 4.37 in his last seven starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Twins lost five of his last six home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-3

Detroit won four of last six games, is 7-8 in road series openers. Three of their last four games went over. Minnesota is 3-5 in its last eight games, 9-7 in home series openers. Twins’ last five games stayed under total.

White Sox @ Royals
Shields is 1-2, 8.41 in his last four starts (over 4-4). Chicago is 1-3 in his road starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-1

Kennedy is 2-0, 2.73 in his last four starts; under is 2-0-1 in his last three. Royals are 3-5 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-2

White Sox are 0-5 since All-Star break; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Chicago is 5-11 in road series openers. Royals are 3-7 in last ten games, 8-8 in home series openers. Three of their last four games went over.

Red Sox @ Angels
Sale is 3-1, 1.98 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Boston is 6-4 in his road starts; their first 5-inning record with him: 10-4-6

Nolasco is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1). Angels are 3-6 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-4

Boston is 4-6 in its last ten games, 7-9 in road series openers. Six of their last seven games stayed under. Angels are 3-5 in last eight games, 5-10 in home series openers. Under is 6-1 in their last seven home games.

New York @ Seattle
Sabathia is 6-1, 2.00 in his last eight starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. New York is 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-6-1

Moore is 1-1, 5.25 in four starts this year (over 2-2). Seattle is 1-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him:

New York is 4-3 in its last seven games; under is 9-0-1 in their last ten games. Mariners won six of their last eight games; under is 7-2 in their last eight.

Interleague

A’s @ Mets
Blackburn is 1-0, 2.37 in three starts this year (over 1-1-1). A’s won his only road start- their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-2

Matz is 0-2, 20.26 in his last two starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Mets are 0-2 in his home starts- their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-1

Oakland is 8-4 in its last 12 games, 5-9 in road series openers. Under is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. New York is 7-4 in last 11 home games, 8-3 in last 11 home series openers. Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
StL-Chi: Martinez 8-11 (0-5 last 5); Arrieta 10-9
Mil-Phil: Garza 7-7; Nola 6-8
Mia-Cin: Urena 9-5; Bailey 2-3
Pitt-Colo: Williams 6-7; Hoffman 7-3
Wash-Az: Scherzer 13-6; Godley 7-5
Atl-LA: Garcia 7-9; Wood 11-3
SD-SF: Cahill 6-4; Samardzija 7-12

American League
Hst-Balt: Fiers 11-7; Jimenez 8-6
Tex-TB: Darvish 8-12; Cobb 10-9
Tor-Clev: Estrada 8-11; Bauer 8-10
Det-Minn: Sanchez 3-2; Santana 11-8
Chi-KC: Shields 3-5; Kennedy 8-9
Bos-LAA: Sale 13-6; Nolasco 5-14
NY-Sea: Sabathia 11-4; Moore 2-2

Interleague
A’s-NY: Blackburn 2-1; Matz 2-5

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
StL-Chi: Martinez 6-19 (4 of last 5); Arrieta 6-19
Mil-Phil: Garza 3-14; Nola 3-14
Mia-Cin: Urena 2-14; Bailey 4-5
Pitt-Colo: Williams 4-13; Hoffman 2-10
Wash-Az: Scherzer 4-19; Godley 2-12
Atl-LA: Garcia 4-16; Wood 1-14
SD-SF: Cahill 2-10; Samardzija 8-19

American League
Hst-Balt: Fiers 6-18; Jimenez 4-14
Tex-TB: Darvish 6-20; Cobb 3-19
Tor-Clev: Estrada 8-19; Bauer 3-18
Det-Minn: Sanchez 3-1-1; Santana 4-19
Chi-KC: Shields 3-8; Kennedy 3-17
Bos-LAA: Sale 1-19; Nolasco 6-19
NY-Sea: Sabathia 3-15; Moore 1-4

Interleague
A’s-NY: Blackburn 0-3; Matz 2-7

Interleague play

NL @ AL– 46-38 AL, favorites -$820
AL @ NL– 49-45 NL, favorites -$628
Total: 91-87 AL, favorites -$1,448

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 47-40-2
AL @ NL: Over 49-39-3
Total: Over 96-79-5

Armadillosports.com

Friday's Diamond Notes
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Hottest team: Pirates (7-3 last 10) at Rockies

For the first time since early April, the Pirates are at the .500 mark after pulling off a four-game home sweep of the NL Central-leading Brewers. Not only is Pittsburgh three games off the pace inside the division, but the Bucs completed a 6-1 homestand against St. Louis and Milwaukee, while winning four consecutive series. Now, Pittsburgh has to prove it can win on the highway as the Pirates face three straight NL West opponents to close out July.

The first stop for the Bucs is in Denver to face the suddenly streaking Rockies. Pittsburgh captured two of three from Colorado at PNC Park in mid-June as right-hander Trevor Williams takes the mound in the opener. The Pirates had lost five consecutive starts made by Williams prior to a 4-3 walk-off win last Sunday over the Cardinals. Pittsburgh has struggled in road series openers recently by posting a 3-7 mark in the last 10 games in this situation.

Coldest team: White Sox (1-9 last 10) at Royals

Chicago has begun the dismantling process after dealing southpaw Jose Quintana, third baseman Todd Frazier, and closer David Robertson in the last week. The White Sox dropped all five games on their homestand to the Mariners and Dodgers, although three of those defeats came by one run. Chicago has been limited to three runs or fewer five times during its current six-game skid, while compiling a 3-7 record in its last 10 road contests.

The Sox travel to Kansas City as Chicago tries to improve on a 5-2 record against the Royals this season. James Shields has won only one decision in five starts since April for Chicago, while taking the mound at Kauffman Stadium for the first time since pitching in the World Series for Kansas City in 2014.

Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (11-5, 2.01 ERA)

Scherzer and Dodgers’ southpaw Clayton Kershaw have combined to win three of the last four National League Cy Young awards as one of these two aces will likely capture the honor in 2017. Scherzer has delivered double-digit strikeouts in nine of his past 10 starts, while allowing one earned run or less in five of his previous six trips to the mound. Washington owns a 5-1 mark in Scherzer’s last six road assignments as the Nats begin a crucial series in Arizona as the righty scattered two hits in seven innings against the D-backs in early May.

Coldest pitcher: Steven Matz, Mets (2-3, 4.58 ERA)

New York salvaged the final two games of its series with St. Louis following a three-game skid. The Mets face the Athletics in an interleague set at Citi Field as Matz is coming off his worst start of the season by lasting one inning and allowing seven earned runs in a 13-4 setback to Colorado last Sunday. Matz put together a pair of scoreless outings against Washington and Miami before giving up 16 hits and 12 earned runs in his last two trips to the mound.

Biggest OVER run: Padres (6-0-1 last seven)

San Diego continues to cash OVERS since the All-Star break, but the pitching finally came through in Thursday’s 5-2 victory at San Francisco. The Padres turn to veteran Trevor Cahill, who has pitched well since returning to the rotation in early July in wins over Cleveland and San Francisco. The Padres tagged Jeff Samardzija for seven runs last Sunday as the Giants’ beleaguered right-hander takes the mound on Friday, as San Francisco is 4-1 to the OVER in his previous five home starts.

Biggest UNDER run: Brewers (7-1 last eight)

Are things drying up in Milwaukee? The Brewers have dropped five consecutive games, while not busting the three-run plateau in six straight contests. Milwaukee hooks up with Philadelphia for the second time since the All-Star break as the Crew posted nine runs in the series opener last week before combining for five runs in the final two contests. The UNDER trend has a strong chance of continuing as Matt Garza takes the ball for the Brewers, racking up five UNDERS in his previous five appearances.

Matchup to watch: Blue Jays vs. Indians

These two teams hooked up for the American League title last season as Cleveland topped Toronto in five games to capture the pennant. Call it the Edwin Encarnacion bowl as the former Blue Jays slugger faces his old team for the second time after the Indians dropped two of three at Toronto in May. Encarnacion leads Cleveland with 19 home runs and is tied with Jose Ramirez for the team RBI lead with 50, but Encarnacion is well below his pace from 2016 in Toronto when he knocked out 42 homers.

Cleveland returns home following a dreadful trip to the Bay Area by losing five of six games at Oakland and San Francisco. Trevor Bauer couldn’t escape the first inning in his last outing on Sunday in a 7-3 loss to the A’s, allowing four runs on 43 pitches and recording only two outs. The Indians have stumbled to a 1-3 mark in Bauer’s past four home starts, while dropping a 4-2 decision the last time he faced the Blue Jays in May.

The Blue Jays managed a split with the Red Sox at Fenway Park after outlasting Boston, 8-6 on Thursday, but Toronto has lost four straight games following a victory. Marco Estrada has struggled recently for Toronto as the Jays have put together a 2-6 record in his last eight outings, but both victories came on the road. Estrada has been tagged for at least four earned runs six times in his past eight starts, while Toronto tries to improve on a 3-0 record in its previous three series openers.

Betcha didn’t know: Ervin Santana has struggled at home recently for Minnesota as the Twins are 1-5 in his previous six outings at Target Field. Santana heads to the hill in the series opener against the Tigers, as Minnesota lost two of his three starts against Detroit last season. The Twins seek their fifth straight win in a home series opener, while the Tigers for the first time since late April.

Biggest public favorite: Red Sox (-205) at Angels

Biggest public underdog: Pirates (+125) at Rockies

Biggest line move: Twins (-125 to -135) vs. Tigers

MLB Picks & Analysis
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Houston (-140) at Baltimore; Total: 11

Yesterday’s top selection from The Bettor’s Box was a failure, as the Baltimore Orioles put a beating on Cole Hamels and came away with a 9-7 decision. Today, the Orioles face a stiffer test from the visiting Astros. The hardest test may come from the fact that Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching and he’s terrible.

Mike Fiers goes for the Astros. All of the sudden, Fiers is one of the better pitchers in baseball. Some tweaks and changes have gone a long way, along with the natural regression of a HR/FB% that was way too high to continue. Since May 30, Fiers has a 2.50 ERA with a 3.03 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP in nine starts covering 54 innings. He went seven starts without allowing a home run before the Blue Jays got one on July 8. He gave up two last time out against Minnesota, but those were the only runs he allowed and he struck out 11. I doubt that this is the Mike Fiers we will see the rest of the season, but this renaissance has been really impressive. He has a 60/20 K/BB ratio in that span as well.

Jimenez now has a 7.01 ERA with a 5.97 FIP and a 4.96 xFIP. While I’m projecting the Astros for an offensive drop-off against righties, as their wOBA is well above the teams that have finished first in that category over the last several years, Jimenez isn’t exactly the guy you look to for that sort of regression to happen against. He’s awful and somehow getting worse. Even with a start that featured eight shutout innings, Jimenez has allowed 24 runs over his last five starts. He’s given up 14 in his last three starts over 13.2 innings of work.

The only way I see to play this game is to lay it and play it with the road chalk.

Milwaukee at Philadelphia (-140); Total: 8.5

With the Brewers’ struggles, we’ve actually got people willing to lay a sizable price on the Phillies. It’s also because Aaron Nola is pitching and he’s doing so against Matt Garza. Garza has actually accumulated a little bit of trade value with a decent run of late. He has a 3.84 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 4.65 xFIP. The Brewers are fading fast and the Cubs, and to a lesser extent, the Pirates, are coming up quickly. If Chase Anderson wasn’t hurt, we could very well see the Brewers move Garza. Over his last four starts, Garza has had the sequencing gods on his side. He has only allowed six runs on 21 hits. His strikeout rate is still well below average, but he’s found a way to induce a lot of weak contact with a .282 BABIP against.

Aaron Nola is a stud. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 3.43 FIP and a 3.62 xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning and is a rock solid arm when he’s healthy. Nola has allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts with a 41/11 K/BB ratio in those 35.1 innings of work. He’s posted a 1.78 ERA with a 2.85 FIP and a 3.26 xFIP. He’s been brilliant. He is the one starter to back in this Phillies rotation and the market has backed him heavily of late.

Even with Nola on the mound, I can’t, in good conscience, take the Phillies at -140. I won’t be playing the Brewers either. They’re feeling the pressure and some of the good fortunes have worn off. For a while, the Brewers hit, but didn’t pitch. Then they pitched, but didn’t hit. Now, all parts of the equation have been inconsistent and it shows in the standings. The Phillies aren’t a good team, but neither are the Brewers right now.

Miami at Cincinnati (-110); Total: 10

The market has backed the Marlins a ton this season, but the one starting pitcher that hasn’t felt much of that love is Jose Urena. Urena is the guy on the bump today against the Cincinnati Reds, who will send Homer Bailey back to the mound. Bailey has gotten a little bit of love from the betting market recently and it has not gone well. It will be interesting to see which way this line swings.

Urena is rotation filler. The 25-year-old has a 3.93 ERA, but also has a 5.22 FIP and a 5.53 xFIP. He’s not exactly the type of guy that you want to back with regularity. He has a below average strikeout rate, a slightly below average walk rate, and not a whole lot going for him, except for a .255 BABIP and a 77.6 percent LOB%. Those two metrics are largely dependent on luck and positive sequencing. If that runs out for Urena, it won’t be pretty. That could certainly happen in a spot like this. The Reds have an underrated offense and Urena has allowed 14 HR in 89.1 innings of work.

The problem with betting on the Reds is Homer Bailey. Bailey has a 10.13 ERA with a 7.03 FIP. His 4.96 xFIP, while clearly much lower than his ERA, isn’t even that spectacular. Bailey has allowed eight runs, one run, one run, six runs, and eight runs in his five starts, so there’s no telling what he has in store for this start. The two eight-run blow-ups were against the Nationals, yet the two one-run games were at Coors Field and at Chase Field, so there’s a wide range of possible outcomes here with Bailey.

If I had to play anything, it would be the Reds, since Bailey won’t carry numbers like this all season, but I’d still be scared of that play.

Toronto at Cleveland (-135); Total: 9.5

Money coming in on Marco Estrada is a rare thing for this season. Estrada has a 5.33 ERA with a 4.31 FIP and a 4.60 xFIP on the season. His strikeout rate has spiked, but his walk rate has as well and he’s seen a huge downturn in command. Estrada regularly carried low BABIPs over a several-year period, but it is .330 this season, much to the enjoyment of those that have been betting on his regression all these years. A .330 BABIP that coincides with a home run spike signals a complete lack of command, which is why hitters have been able to have so much success. Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which doesn’t seem to have meshed well with the league-wide increase in hitting fly balls.

Before we go further, let’s talk about BaseRuns. I tweeted about this yesterday, but the Indians should be a 55-38 team per BaseRuns, which is an alternate standings metric that plays things out in a context-neutral environment. Basically, the individual outcomes for each team are calculated as an overall entity as opposed to the timing with which they happen. The example I’ve already referenced is that HR-1B-1B-K-K-FO is one run. If it went K-1B-K-1B-HR-FO, that’s three runs. What BaseRuns does is take out the context and create a runs scored per game and runs against per game value to put together a win-loss record based on run differential. The Indians have been unlucky (or terrible, however you want to put it) in those higher-leverage situations. They have had the necessary hits and walks to be a better offense, but they haven’t gotten hits at the right times. Does this make the Indians an undervalued offense? Maybe, though there are no guarantees that the timing will improve.

The irony of it all is that Trevor Bauer is sort of a pitching version of this concept. Bauer has a 5.59 ERA with a 4.09 FIP and a 3.70 xFIP. He has a .344 BABIP against and a 66.2 percent LOB%. Bauer has given up hits (and home runs) at the worst possible times – with people on base, and, generally, in scoring position. As such, his ERA is awful and he’s been blasted all over social media for his performance. As you can see, there’s a huge ERA/xFIP discrepancy there. As I like to say, that positive regression assumes a reasonable level of command. There is nothing reasonable about Bauer’s command this season.

But, there is room in the numbers for improvement. The Indians should be plenty motivated after an awful road trip and a day off, if you believe in that sort of thing. The Blue Jays face uncertain times. The Indians face a division title if they can play a little bit over .500 the rest of the way.

Money has come in on Toronto, but I think I’d have to go with the Indians in this spot tonight.

Texas (-125) at Tampa Bay; Total: 8

Yu Darvish takes the mound for the Rangers against Alex Cobb for the Rays. Darvish is an impending free agent and seems like a great rental starter for any team willing to pay the prospect cost to get him. The Rangers should sell. We’ll see if they do. They’re trying to move Jonathan Lucroy and will look to move some other pieces prior to the July 31 deadline, but Darvish is the prized possession of this roster. That’s pretty evident every five days when he pitches well and nobody else does.

Both Darvish and Cobb are pitching pretty well lately. Darvish has a 3.45 ERA with a 3.73 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP. He’s struck out over a batter per inning this season and his peripherals are right where they should be, which makes him an extremely valuable starter. The Rays offense does most of its damage with the long ball. Darvish has allowed 15 of those this season in 125.1 innings of work with a 12.5 percent HR/FB%.

Cobb is down to a 3.59 ERA with a 4.16 FIP and a 4.63 xFIP. Cobb’s xFIP isn’t a huge concern to me because a main component of FIP is strikeouts. Cobb doesn’t get many of those. With only four components in xFIP, being a serious negative in one of them is going to be detrimental. Cobb has limited home runs this season and has a 10.2 percent HR/FB% on the year, so that is a good sign for him against a Texas lineup that really can’t score any other way. I do have some concerns about Cobb against the Rangers in that their biggest offensive shortcoming is the strikeout, but Texas’s lineup is just subpar overall in my estimation.

These two bullpens aren’t exactly exciting, so anything you do decide to do should probably cover only the first five innings. As such, a first five under seems like a decent idea with two pitchers that have been having success this season.

Pittsburgh at Colorado (-135); Total: 11.5

As far as I’m concerned, the most interesting line move of the day is this one between the Pirates and Rockies. Trevor Williams may quietly be turning into something of an underrated commodity. One thing that I have noticed this season is that the early bettors that set the market are making moves on ERA/FIP rather than ERA/xFIP with the crazy home run rates this season. Williams has a 4.69 ERA but a 3.93 FIP because he has a 9.6 percent HR/FB%. His 66.1 percent LOB% is driving his ERA and it makes sense that bettors would be looking for positive regression in that metric.

My cautionary tale here is that PNC Park is one of the last great pitcher’s parks left. So, when you look at a guy like Williams, you have to make some adjustments for the road. Away from pitcher-friendly PNC, Williams has a .283/.349/.471 slash against. His slugging percentage against is 100 points higher on the road than at home, though he has worked 14 fewer road innings, so there’s a bit of sample size noise in there. These are considerations that you have to make. You have to adjust for the good pitcher’s environment to the extreme hitter’s environment. I do wonder if those backing Williams have taken that into account.

Jeff Hoffman also has a higher ERA with a lower FIP. Hoffman has a 4.33 ERA with a 3.86 FIP and a 4.77 xFIP on the season. Hoffman is one of those guys, at least in my mind, that hasn’t really lived up to his prospect hype. He was never really dominant at any point in the minors, but he always showcased good command, so that’s why he’s now in the position that he’s in. He’s actually become more of a fly ball pitcher this season, which is interesting to me and probably not a recipe for success at Coors Field. His low LOB%, like with Williams, is why his ERA is elevated so far above his FIP.

The Pirates are playing a lot better and their offense is vastly improved from earlier in the season. Andrew McCutchen and Gregory Polanco are really starting to swing it well. It’s a good time to be heading to Coors Field. I understand the move on the Pirates because of this and the Rockies just gone done bludgeoning a bad Padres team, so there’s a little bit of recency bias in the price. Now that the market has eliminated that, it’s tough to side with either team. Gun to my head, I’ll take the Pirates, but it’s not an overly strong consideration.

New York (-120) at Seattle; Total: 9

Oddsmakers are going to have a tough time lining Yankees games for a little while. The Yankees starting rotation clearly has its issues, but the bullpen is extremely deep and talented at this point with Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. You have to start thinking about things in a different way and the market has clearly done that by playing on the Yankees in each of the last two games.

In this one, CC Sabathia’s price has gone up about 10 cents against Andrew Moore. The Mariners have fared better with righties overall this season, which is a consideration, but Sabathia actually hasn’t been all that bad. He has a 3.54 ERA with a 4.21 FIP and a 4.45 xFIP in 84 innings of work. Since his home run rate peaked in 2014 and 2015, he’s gotten much better at limiting the long ball. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, but he’s been able to manage that. It’s been impressive to see Sabathia continuously make adjustments to remain a viable MLB pitcher. He deserves a ton of credit for that.

The nice thing for any Yankees starter is that Joe Girardi has the bullpen depth to pull them at the first sign of any danger. The odd thing is that Sabathia actually gets better as he gets deeper into starts, so this is a good thing all around for the Yankees.

Andrew Moore has a 5.25 ERA with a 6.93 FIP and a 5.86 xFIP across his first four Major League starts. As we know with small sample sizes, one start can really skew things. Moore had three straight quality starts before giving up five runs in three innings to the White Sox last time out. Moore is a very, very extreme fly ball guy, so he has already allowed eight home runs in 24 innings of work. The Yankees do have some power potential in their lineup, as we know.

Given the Yankees’ strengths and the fact that Moore is still finding his way at the MLB level, I’d look to lay it with the visitors tonight.

Friday MLB Betting Preview
VegasInsider.com

Houston vs. Baltimore

Odds: Houston (-145), Baltimore (+125); Total set at 11

After getting Thursday off, the Houston Astros are looking to find some consistency again. Since returning from the All-Star break, the 63-32 Astros have alternated wins and losses (3-3 SU) and have lost SS Carlos Correa for multiple weeks with an injury.

That loss shouldn't hurt Houston too much long term as they've still got a massive lead in the AL West, but that remarkable 30 games over .500 record they've got could take a few hits.

Tonight they are in Baltimore to take on an Orioles team that has found their bats this week and would love to use that offense to beat up on a 1st place squad.

Baltimore is a team that's lacked consistency all year long, but they just swept the Rangers in a four-game set and looked rather impressive doing so. The Orioles scored 12, 10, and 9 runs in the final three games of that series as they feasted on Texas pitching and are looking to do the same against the Astros in this series. Obviously the challenge will be much tougher for the Orioles to do so against a 1st place team, but this is an offense that goes through tremendous hot and cold streaks and right now the Orioles are clearly hot with the bats.

Houston is tasking starter Mike Fiers to try and cool those bats off, but I'm not so sure he'll be able to. Fiers has been solid for Houston all year long, but if there has been a situation where he's more prone to struggles, it's on the road and against a non-division foe. In six previous starts for Fiers in that specific spot, Houston has gone 3-3 SU (allowed 7, 11 and 4 runs in the three losses and 3+ in five of the six games), but more importantly have seen an average of 10.16 runs scored in those games for a 2-1-3 O/U record.

All of those pushes may be concerning to some given tonight's high total, especially when you see about 80% of the action on this total coming in on the 'under' side when you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers. But following the herd here might be more detrimental then you may think, as Baltimore's really slugging the ball from top to bottom and show no signs of slowing down at the moment no matter who's on the hill.

Furthermore, I'll admit it's quite surprising to see a strong majority like that on an 'under' when Ubaldo Jimenez is on the hill as he's been a disaster for the Orioles seemingly all year long. Add in the league's best squad from Houston coming to town – who score 6.3 runs/game vs righties – and I'm not sure this total is high enough.

Jimenez has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen this year as he tends to find one solid start or two when you least expect it to give his team faith that he can start. But the bulk of his starts this year have been worse than ugly, and three times opponents have scored 12+ against the Orioles when Jimenez gets the call. In fact, over his last three starts, Baltimore opponents have scored 15 runs on 21 hits in just 13.2 innings of work and none of those teams have the offensive production numbers that the Astros do.

Even with Correa on the shelf, Houston has an abundance of quality hitters in their lineup and many of them have lit up Jimenez throughout his career. Beltran, Gattis, Reddick, and Aoki are all batting .333+ with 10+ at-bats vs Baltimore's starter and that list doesn't even include the likes of Altuve (career .286) and Springer (just one hit in 12 at-bats lifetime) who have been some of the best Astros players all year.

Facing Jimenez tonight could be just the remedy for the Astros to start to find some consistency in their game again, and seeing the majority on the 'under' tonight only makes me like this 'over' even more.

Best Bet: Over 11

MLB Daily Line Drive
Covers.com

Double-Play Picks

Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (+115, 8 )

It’s a matchup of American League teams that are headed in different directions as the suddenly sputtering Rangers head to Tampa Bay to take the under-the-radar Rays in the opener of a three-game series Friday.

The Rangers have dropped five straight games to sit at 45-50 and are now 18 games behind the Astros in the AL West and are 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Rays have been sneaky good this season climbing and currently hold the AL’s top wild card spot.

Friday’s opener has the makings of a pitcher’s duel with Yu Darvish getting the call for the Rangers and Alex Cobb toeing the rubber for the Rays.

Darvish has been the recipient of some unfortunate results recently, despite four quality starts in his last six outings, the Rangers have lost all six of those games. Luckily for Darvish and the Rangers, the Japanese right-hander loves matching up against the Rays.

Darvish has been dominant in five career starts versus Tampa Bay, going 4-0 with a minuscule 1.09 ERA and a 1.061 WHIP, with 40 strikeouts and 12 walks. Also, the Under is 20-4-2 in Darvish’s last 26 starts versus AL East opponents.

Meanwhile, Alex Cobb has been on quite the run for the Rays, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Over his last two starts he is 2-0 with a 0.58 ERA and a 0.783 WHIP.

Additionally, Cobb has been great at keeping the ball in the ball park, giving up 13 home runs this season and that seems to be the only way the Rangers can score runs. They rank third in the MLB in long balls, but 28th in average.

Pick: Under 8

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers (-285, 7.5)

Well, the Braves were able to end the Dodgers winning streak at 11 games with a 6-3 win Thursday night, so now Los Angeles has won just 31 of its last 36 games. It must be tough to be a Dodgers fan right now.

Los Angeles will look to get back in the win column when they host the Braves for Game 2 of their four-game weekend set by sending arguably their best pitcher to the mound on Friday and we aren’t talking about Clayton Kershaw.

Alex Wood has been unbelievable since joining the Dodgers rotation, going 10-0 with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.922 WHIP in 14 starts, while racking up 97 strikeouts with just 22 walks. Wood will face a Braves lineup that ranks 17th in runs per game, 19th in OPS and 27th in home runs.

The Braves will counter with Jamie Garcia (who has yet to be traded at this moment), who is 3-7 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.331 WHIP. Garcia will have his hands full with a deep Dodgers lineup that ranks fifth in runs per game, third in OPS and seventh in home runs.

Los Angeles is also 31-20 at home against the runline and are 9-2 against the runline in Wood’s last 11 starts.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 94-82-8

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays (8-6, 3.59 ERA, $214)

The Tampa Bay Rays are sitting at the top of the AL Wildcard race and winners of six of eight and their starting rotation, including Alex Cobb is a principle reason why.

Over his last five starts, the Rays are 4-1 and Cobb has an ERA of 3.09. In his last two trips to the mound, he has been dialed in. The 30-year-old has allowed one run over 15.1 innings of work and that one run was a solo home run. Cobb gets the ball today against Yu Darvish and the visiting Texas Rangers. The Rays are +114 home dogs.

Slumping: Ubaldo Jiminez (4-5, 7.01 ERA, $335)

Whenever you're looking for a slumping Major League pitcher it’s always a good idea to look at the starter for the Baltimore Orioles. Today is Ubaldo Jimenez turn and he is a worthy addition to the ‘slumping’ list.

Jimenez’s last three trips to the rubber have been awful. He is 1-2, but has a troubling 9.88 ERA, with a 2.12 WHIP, and opponents on base percentage of .435. Jimenez and the Orioles are currently +129 home dogs against the Houston Astros tonight.

Friday's Top Trends

* Under is 9-1-2 in Phillies last 12 home games. O/U 9 today vs. Brewers.
* Reds are 1-7 in their last 8 home games. -133 vs. Marlins.
* Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between the Blue Jays and Indians. O/U: 9.5.
* Angels are 2-12 in Ricky Nolasco's last 14 starts. Angels +165 vs. Red Sox.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

The most notable wind around Major League ballparks today is good news for hitters. At Citi Field there is a 10 mile per hour wind blowing out to right as the Mets host the Athletics. In Kansas City the White Sox are in town and will be greeted with a 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing out to left center field. The Giants host the San Diego Padres tonight and will be welcomed by a gusty 14-16 mile per hour wind blowing out to straight center field.

There is a chance of thunderstorms and 35 percent chance of rain at first pitch at Great American Ball Park where the Reds are scheduled to host the Marlins. The remainder of the evening looks clear, so if the forecast holds the game will get played but might be delayed. Rain and thunderstorms might be a problem at Coors Field with a POP ranging from 30-40 percent and winds blowing 12-15 miles per hour in from left field. In Minnesota, afternoon thunderstorms are in the forecast and might push first pitch to later in the night.

Ump Of The Day

Laz Diaz: Lazaro Diaz will be calling balls and strikes tonight at AT&T Park where the San Francisco Giants will be hosting the Padres. Diaz is on a home streak the past few weeks, in his last 11 appearances behind the plate the home team has won ten games. Over his last six appearances in games involving the Giants, the home team is undefeated. The Giants are currently -160 home chalk tonight.

Red-hot Pirates face Rockies
By: StatFox.com

The Pirates will be hoping to get over .500 with a win over the Rockies in Colorado on Friday.

There have been ongoing debates about whether or not this Pittsburgh team should sell at the trade deadline, but those should vanish rather soon. The Pirates have been on a roll lately, as they have won five straight and eight of their past nine. They are very much in the race for the NL Central, as they are only three games behind the Brewers right now. They just need to find a way to keep playing the way they have been. The Rockies, meanwhile, have won six of their past 10. This team has not slowed down after a fast start to the season, and Colorado is likely looking at a spot in the NL Wild Card Game. The division, however, is probably out of reach. The Rockies are 10.5 games behind the Dodgers, who just don’t seem to lose anymore. Colorado does, however, have plenty to play for. This team would love to be at home in the Wild Card Game, but it’s also no guarantee that the Rockies are in that game. They have to keep winning games, so this one on Friday night is going to be very important. The starters in this matchup are set to be RHP Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.57 ERA, 59 K) for the Pirates and RHP Jeff Hoffman (6-1, 4.33 ERA< 53 K) for the Rockies. Neither are anything too special, so don’t be surprised if this game is very high scoring. One trend that really stands out when looking at this game is that good offensive teams (Colorado - 4.7 or more runs per game) are 79-32 against the money line since 1997 when going against an average National League starting pitcher (ERA – 4.20 to 5.20) after a game where they had 17 or more hits.

The Pirates are rolling right now and it’s important that they keep it going. They have a real chance to take control of their division in the next few weeks, but this series against the Rockies is going to be tough. Pittsburgh is going to need a good performance from Trevor Williams in this one, and the righty has actually been solid as of late. Williams has pitched at least six innings in three of his past five starts, and he has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past six as well. If he can throw a quality start for Pittsburgh on Friday then the team will have a great chance to win. That just is easier said than done against a potent Rockies offense, though. As for the Pirates, there’s a good chance they’ll need to put up a bunch of runs in this game. That means that guys like OFs Andrew McCutchen (.288 BA, 17 HR, 53 RBI) and Gregory Polanco (.268, 9 HR, 28 RBI) could really help their team by coming through in this one. Both guys are a lot better than their numbers indicate, but McCutchen has really come on strong since an awful start to the season. He is only hitting .288 on the season, but he has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past few months.

Jeff Hoffman has allowed four runs in each of his past two starts, which is a number that could put Colorado in jeopardy of losing this game on Friday. The Rockies really would love for him to allow three or fewer runs in this game, but that’s not very likely. Hoffman has a 6.44 ERA in five home starts this season. His issue in Colorado has, however, been walks and not homers. He has walked 12 batters at home this season, and that is something that should be correctable. If Hoffman’s control is a bit better in this game then the Rockies will be very pleased. On offense, 3B Nolan Arenado (.309 BA, 21 HR, 80 RBI) will do his best to stay hot for Colorado. Arenado was a beast last game, going 5-for-6 with three homers and seven RBI in an 18-4 victory over the Padres. He now has homers in four of the past seven games, and he has had two or more hits in five of the past 10. As always, OF Charlie Blackmon (.329 BA, 23 HR, 67 RBI) should also be a major threat for Colorado. Blackmon enters this one on a 14-game hitting streak, and he has homered in three of his past four games as well. Blackmon has, however, been dealing with some leg pain. He should be able to go in this one, but it’ll be interesting to see whether or not he is playing at 100%.

Weekend Outlook
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Pittsburgh (48-48) at Colorado (56-41)

Scheduled Rotation: Williams (3-4) vs. Hoffman (6-1), Kuhl (3-6) vs. Marquez (7-4), Nova (10-6) vs. Freeland (9-7)
Series Price: Rockies -190, Pirates +150

For the first time since April 16 when Pittsburgh was 6-6, it has scratched its way back to .500 on the basis of an incredible 11-2 run. They just swept four from the first-place Brewers and are now only three games from leading the National League Central. They stayed 'under' in 10 of those 11 wins making it a great parlay correlation to consider this weekend. You could see Pittsburgh inching closer to improvements just because all their games seem to stay 'under' with good pitching and fielding. In their last 29 games, the 'under' has gone 23-5-1. However, Colorado's bats are smoking hot right now and they've gone 'over' in six straight while winning their last four coming into this series. But Pittsburgh seems to have the Rockies figured out. They took two of three at PNC Park in June and they've won eight of its last nine in this series at Coors Field. Overall, they're on an 11-3 run against the Rockies. However, the Bucs to win the series offers great value at +165.

Washington (57-37) at Arizona (55-40)

Scheduled Rotation: Scherzer (11-5) vs. Godley (3-4), Roark (7-6) vs. Bailey (2-3), Strasburg (10-3) vs. Ray (9-4)
Series Price: Nationals -130, Diamondbacks +110

It was good to see the Arizona bats finally come alive at Cincinnati where they won two of three, because it was a bad look getting swept at Atlanta coming off the All-Star break. They had lost eight of nine before Cincinnati and in a blink of an eye the Dodgers had a double-digit lead in the Nationa League West. They've got some major issues this weekend beginning Friday night against Max Scherzer which makes laying -130 in the series appear to be the right way to go here. Scherzer, a former Diamondback, has a 1.36 ERA in 11 road starts going 8-2 and his teams have never lost to Arizona in his six career starts. Arizona has lost Zack Godley's last three starts. Washington has won six of its last seven while averaging seven runs a game over that stretch. They average an NL-best 5.6 runs a game. The 'over' has gone 13-4 in the past 17 meetings and the Nationals are 25-10 in the past 35 meetings.

St. Louis (46-49) at Chicago Cubs (49-45)

Scheduled Rotation: Martinez (6-8 ) vs Arrieta (9-7), Wainwright (11-5) vs. Lester (6-6), Wacha (7-3) vs. Quintana (5-8 )
Series Price: Cubs -230, Cardinals +180

Maybe the Cubs really can just flip on the switch and say "it's go time." When the bell sounded that the second-half of the season was starting, the Cubs responded by winning all six games and doing so on the road. The Cards have lost four of seven since the All-Star break with an inconsistent lineup averaging just 3.6 runs a game. The thing that stands out the most for the Cards is them staying 'under' in eight of their last nine because of weak bats and good pitching. Look for that trend to continue this weekend. The Cubs swept Cards at Wrigley Field in June with two of the three staying 'under' the number.

Milwaukee (52-46) at Philadelphia (32-61)

Scheduled Rotation: Garza (4-4) vs Nola (6-6), Suter (1-1) vs. Hellickson (6-5), Guerra (1-3) vs. Eickhoff (1-7)
Series Price: Phillies -115, Brewers +105

Hard to believe Station Casinos has the lowly Phillies at a pick 'em to win this series over first-place Milwaukee, but the Brew Crew have looked very sloppy in their last five -- all losses -- which includes a four-game sweep by the Bucs and a Phillies win behind Jeremy Hellickson on Sunday. The Brewers bats have cooled considerably helping eight of their last nine games stay 'under', including their last six. The Phillies have hit .292 since the All-Star break while winning three of six. They've stayed 'under' in 25 of 41 home games this season. The matchup to watch for is Saturday with Hellickson. The Phils had won eight of his first nine starts then they went on to lose eight of his next nine before his 5-2 win at Milwaukee. He's been pitching well enough to win, but lacks support, and has stayed 'under' in six of his past seven starts.

Atlanta (46-48) at LA Dodgers (66-30)

Scheduled Rotation: Garcia (3-7) vs. Wood (11-0), Teheran (7-7) vs. Hill (6-4), Newcomb (1-5) vs. Kershaw (15-2)
Series Price: started Thursday (Dodgers -390, Braves +315)

The Dodgers had won 11 straight and an incredible 31 of 35 before being cooled off Thursday, 6-3, in the opener of this four-game set. The Braves have won six of their last eight road games, but they get the kitchen sink thrown at them over the weekend by having to face an undefeated Alex Wood on Friday and then Clayton Kershaw on Sunday who the Dodgers have won 14 straight behind and 18 of 20 overall which is why his +13.2 units of profit make him the best money pitcher in baseball. Let's see Cy Young voters factor that stat in when choosing between Kershaw and Scherzer. It's quite possible that Sunday's game with a rapidly increased team rating, home rating and starting pitching rating of Kershaw that we could see -400 on the board. The Dodgers also lead baseball with a +1.9 margin of victory. They are the 7-to-2 betting favorite (Bet $100 to win $350) to win the World Series for a good reason; they're the best in baseball.

Houston (63-32) at Baltimore (46-49)

Scheduled Rotation: Fiers (6-4) vs. Jimenez (4-5), McHugh (0-0) vs. Tillman (1-5), McCullers (7-2) vs Bundy (9-8 )
Series Price: Astros -155, Orioles +135

The Orioles got swept three games at Houston in late May, but that is to be expected because the Orioles are an awful 17-30 on the road. However, at home they play some good baseball at 29-19. They've won 13 of their last 19 meetings with the Astros at Camden Yards. But this Astros squad has lost only 11 of 44 road games this season. That's it! Absolutely amazing, but when you average 7.1 runs a game and bat .299 on the road, that's what happens. Houston has gone 28-12-4 to the 'over' on the road. With these shaky Baltimore starters, 'over' is the angle to look in all three games.

Texas (45-50) at Tampa Bay (51-45)

Scheduled Rotation: Darvish (6-8 ) vs. Cobb (8-6), Cashner (4-8 ) vs. Archer (7-5), Ross (2-2) vs. Odorizzi (6-4)
Series Price: Rays -165, Rangers +135

Texas had gotten to .500 on the season and then they go and lose five straight before this series. The Texas starter I feel the sorriest for is Yu Darvish who is pitching great but can't get any support. The Rangers have lost nine of his last 10 starts, including his last six. Nine of those 10 starts stayed 'under.' In fact, he's on a run of staying 'under' in 13 of his last 14 starts. Why stop betting it now as he's being showcased for a trade. The Rays have won six of their last eight and sit only 2.5 games behind the Red Sox in the American League East. Who would've thought they'd be this good?

Boston (54-43) at Los Angeles Angels (47-50)

Scheduled Rotation: Sale (11-4) vs Nolasco (4-10), Price (5-2) vs. Ramirez (8-8 ), Porcello (4-12) vs. Bridwell (3-1)
Series Price: Red Sox -170, Angels +140

Boston has lost 26 of the past 38 meetings with the Angels, including six of its last eight at Anaheim, but they throw their best on the mound this weekend, although the Angels are fortunate they don't face Drew Pomeranz. However, the Sox have lost Chris Sale's last two starts. His last four starts have stayed 'under' and has Ricky Nolasco's. The 'under' has been the theme for the Angels lately as they show some fight. They've gone 15-4-2 to the 'under' in their last 19 and it's something to consider in all three games. Something to also consider is picking on Rick Porcello Sunday. The Angels have gone 17-11 in Game 3 of their series this season.