Free Picks for Friday, July 21st, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
WHITE SOX AT ROYALS
PLAY: OVER 10.5
The weather report indicates extremely favorable hitting conditions tonight at Kansas City. Temps in the 90’s, will feel like triple digits with the humidity and the wind is blowing out. That sounds like a thoroughly uncomfortable pitching environment.
Add in a pair of pitchers who can be vulnerable to the long ball as both James Shields and Ian Kennedy have high homer rates. Then mix in a pair of bullpens that won’t exactly intimidate opposition hitters, and the recipe for a shootout is clearly available.
The oddsmakers aren’t stupid, and they’ve adjusted the number here to compensate for the pitchers and the conditions. Nevertheless, this has a good chance to be a very high scoring game and I’m willing to play along by choosing the White Sox and Royals to get Over the number.
Ray Monohan
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami +102
The Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds face off on Friday night, and with the Marlins being at plus money they have a lot of value.
On the mound for the Reds is Homer Bailey who has struggled since coming back from injury. He has made five starts so far this year, and in three of them he gave up six runs or more.
In his last start it was ugly. He managed to go four innings against the Nationals and gave up eight runs on eight hits. I would expect the Marlins to be able to get their bats going early in this game and cruise to a pretty simple win. Some trends to note. Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss. Back the Marlins.
Scott Spreitzer
Tigers vs. Twins
Play:Twins -132
Detroit's 4-game winning streak has come to a close with a thud, losing their last two games by a combined score of 20-7. The Tigers have struggled all season in road games against righties, winning just 10 of 33 games, while averaging just 3.9 rpg in night action, and that was with J.D. Martinez in the lineup. Martinez is now employed by the Diamondbacks and I expect the Tigers to have their problems with Minnesota righty, Ervin Santana. Santana is 9-4 in 19 starts against Detroit, posting a 3.08 ERA. He should find plenty of offensive backing with the Twins averaging over 5 rpg in home night action against righthanders. Detroit has had their way with Minnesota over the last few years, but not here and not tonight in my opinion.
Ben Burns
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play: Over 9½
Neither club can be happy with the performances of their respective starting pitchers this evening. Toronto turns to Marco Estrada (4-6, 5.33 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Detroit on Sunday. That makes it three straight starts that Estrada has failed to last past the fifth framesand he’s now allowed 23 walks over his last 24.1 innings of work (Estrada has been especially poor on the road as well with a 2-4, 5.63 ERA record.) Trevor Bauer (7-8, 5.59) has been even worse than his counterpart lately, most recently allowing four runs off three hits and three walks over 2/3’rds of an inning (additionally he owns a poor 4.75 ERA at home and a worse 5.66 ERA in all “night” games.) No need to over-think this one in my opinion, as recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests we’ll likely have a bit of a “slug-fest” on our hands.
Art Aronson
Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 7½
With a couple of competent starting pitchers going head to head in this one, all signs point to a lower-scoring pitcehrs duel:
Yu Darvish: He’s 6-8 with a 3.45 ERA. Darvish most recently gave up three runs (just two earned) over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Royals on Sunday. Darvish has been scuffling for a while now for the Rangers, but he still comes into this one with an impressive 2.37 ERA on the road overall this season.
Alex Cobb: He’s 8-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Cobb most recently allowed one earned run off six scattered hits over 7.2 innings against the Angels on Saturday. Note that he’s a solid 4-3 with a very respectable 2.64 ERA at home this year.
The bottom line: We like these starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, we expect this one to fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.
Marc Lawrence
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami +106
Edges - Marlins: Urena 3-0 team starts versus NL Central this season, and 3-0 career team start away during July… Reds: Bailey 0-2 with 18.00 ERA and 2.57 WHIP home team starts this season, and 0-5 last five home team starts during July… With Bailey 0-2 against NL East foes this season as well, we recommend a 1* play on Miami.
Jim Feist
Athletics at Mets
Pick: Under
Oakland has a bad offense going and loses the DH for this series. Starter Paul Blackburn (1.83 ERA) has good stiff, off a 5-3 win over Cleveland. Oakland is 7-2-1 under the total in interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Mets are 4-1-1 under against a team with a losing record. Starter Steve Matz is off a bad game against a powerhouse Colorado offense but has a pair of 7-inning shutouts to his credit in two of his last four starts. The Mets are 11-5 under the total when he starts.
Dave Essler
Minnesota -130
I bet this last night in the first inning of the Tigers game with the Royals. They committed three errors in the top of the first inning (see write up regarding Tigers defense) and those things tend to be very cyclical. As I said a couple of games ago, the Martinez trade will shortly take some of their desire to do well away. Now they travel late to Minnesota, who rested yesterday. Minnesota on a bad day has a better bullpen, and their back end has actually been pretty solid lately. The Twins almost always come to play, so I am not (yet) worried about their motivation.
Will Rogers
Houston vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The set-up: The Houston Astros lost two of three to Seattle to begin the week, leaving them 5-5 over their last 10, as they leave home for a nine-game road trip. That trip begins tonight in Baltimore, with the Orioles coming off a four-game home sweep of the Rangers. However, Baltimore is just 46-49 and no one knows for sure if they will be buyers or sellers heading into the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31. The Astros sure seem to look like buyers, as Oakland's Sonny Gray and Detroit's Justin Verlander are among the prominent names to have been mentioned. Houston sits at 63-32 and owns a huge 16-game lead in the AL West plus games away from home haven't bothered Houston so far in 2017, as the Astros own MLB's best road record at 33-11.
The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (6-4 & 3.75 ERA) steps to the mound for Houston Friday night, opposed by Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez (4-5 & 7.01 ERA). Fiers is 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA over his last nine starts (team is 6-3) and he struck out a season-high 11 in seven strong innings of a 5-3 win over Minnesota his last time out. He has allowed just 37 hits over 54 innings during that current stretch. Fiers allowed a run in seven innings to pick up the win in his only prior start vs. Baltimore back in 2016. Jimenez has been awful in July, allowing 15 runs on 21 hits in 13 2/3 innings over three starts this month (9.88 ERA). The good news is that he's 4-0 with 2.60 ERA in 11 career starts vs. Houston (teams are 7-4).
The pick: The Astros are a postseason lock and the Orioles will be watching at home come October. Yes, the Astros have won 12 of the last 14 meetings with the Orioles (including six straight) but Baltimore just swept Texas here at Camden Yards, outscoring the Rangers 34-11. I'm backing the home team.
Larry Ness
San Diego vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
The San Diego Padres are 41-54 on the season and the San Francisco Giants check in at 37-60. That leaves the Giants five games worse than the Padres with almost the entire difference being attributed to the fact that after Thursday's 5-2 San Diego win in San Francisco, the Padres have won seven of 10 over the Giants in 2017. San Diego's pitching staff rebounded nicely in allowing just two runs, after SD pitchers allowed 36 runs while losing three straight at Colorado to open the week. The Giants' loss last night made them the second team in the majors to reach 60 losses this season (Philadelphia, with 61, was the first).
Trevor Cahill (4-3, 3.14 ERA) defeated the Giants 7-1 last Sunday when he struck out eight in 6.2 innings while giving up one run on eight hits. He is now 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA over his last six starts (Padres are 4-2), striking out 41 in 33.1 innings during that stretch. Cahill is 7-5 with a 3.63 ERA in 17 career appearances (14 starts / teams are 7-7) vs the Giants. Samardzija has dropped consecutive starts and was rocked for seven runs and nine hits over six innings while matched up opposite Cahill last Sunday. Samardzija has a superb KW ratio (135-14) but he's enduring yet another in a growing line of bad seasons. He has just four wins in 19 starts with the Giants going 7-12 in his starts (minus-$670 vs the moneyline).
There is no way to describe just how poorly San Francisco has played in 2017 but let's not ignore that San Diego is MLB's lowest scoring team (3.68 RPG) and owns its lowest team BA (.232). The Padres are 17-31 on the road, allowing 5.48 RPG. I'll give Samardzija (3.68 ERA in 14 career appearances vs the Padres) a try.
Zack Cimini
Blue Jays vs. Indians
Play:Blue Jays +128
Cleveland embarks a series against the Blue Jays as a questionable favorite. Pitcher Trevor Bauer lasted less than an inning in his last start against the A’s allowing four runs. On the other side Toronto’s Marco Estrada has not won a start since May. That factor combined with the Indians off-day Wednesday are factors for an improper line.
SPORTS WAGERS
Oakland +150 over N.Y. METS
Steven Matz has a mere 25 K’s in 39 innings, which means he’s at the mercy of BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). In his last start, he didn’t make it out of the second inning after allowing nine hits and seven runs at this park to the Rockies. The game before that, Matz struck out one batter and it was the pitcher. Matz has upside to be sure but he’s spent more time on the DL over the past two seasons than he has in the rotation and when you’re always a step or two behind the rest of the league, you’re always at a disadvantage. We sold Matz’s shiny 3.05 ERA before his last start and we’ll sell more of his stock now. Steven Matz is simply not good enough to be priced in this range.
Paul Blackburn has just eight K’s in 20 frames but that’s not his game. His game is to work fast, put the ball in play and let his defense do the rest. Blackburn was originally a supplemental first round pick of the Cubs in 2012 before being sent to the Mariners in July 2016. Seattle later traded him to Oakland in November 2016. He is all about command and control and works effectively down in the zone with three average offerings. Blackburn is a sinkerballer with a 90-93 mph fastball that he spots well. He’ll mix in a slightly above average curveball, hard slider, and below average change-up. He is able to repeat his simple delivery and slot which allows him to throw quality strikes. He has a tremendous batted ball profile of 54% grounders, 13% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. Obviously, Blackburn’s 1.83 ERA will not hold up but that’s a discussion for another time. The first time through the league is often the best time for rookies that come in not highly touted so we’ll ride this one for at least one more game. Nice overlay here.
CINCINNATI -1½ +169 over Miami
We know the drill and we can see the stats like everyone else so allow us to set it up. On paper, Miami looks like the right play here. After all, the Marlins are the dog here against Homer Bailey and his 10.13 ERA. At home Bailey is 0-2 with an ERA of 18.00. Furthermore, Jose Urena is 7-4 overall with a 3.93 ERA. Urena is also 4-0 on the road with a 4.03 ERA. It all looks rather appealing but we’ll continue to preach to you to not buy ERA’s or surface stats. That applies here.
First off, the Marlins are going bad. They have one win over their past six games and that victory occurred against Philadelphia. The past two nights, the Fish lost twice to the Phillies while getting outscored 15-5. The Marlins have four victories over their past 11 games with three of those wins coming against the Giants and one against Philly. Miami has beaten San Fran and Philly but nobody else recently.
After posting a 5.76 ERA through his first 145 MLB innings, Jose Urena entered 2017 needing to show signs of progress. Urena joined the starting rotation on May 7 and has compiled a 3.93 ERA in 89 IP so far in 2017 but it’s all a mirage. His shaky command has contributed to, among other things, early exits. He has failed to complete more than six innings in any of his 14 starts in 2017 and in 19 of 23 MLB starts in 2015-16.
At first glance, it would appear that he has made substantial gains vs. LHB in 2017, but that's not the case. The difference is largely due to a fortunate 22% hit rate. Urena’s command vs. LHB has been beyond poor and when he does get them out, it’s mostly because of luck. Urena has benefitted greatly from a combination of hit%, strand% and hr/f luck, as evidenced by the wide disparity between his ERA and 5.88 xERA. His puny 5% swing and miss rate is also noteworthy. Despite the vastly improved surface numbers, Urena is pretty much the same garbage pitcher he has always been. Unless he can discover a way to generate more strikeouts, refine his command, and make some strides against left-handed batters, his ERA figures to move toward his xERA and beyond. With a weak BB/K split of 33/61 in 89 frames and a weak batted ball profile of 39% grounders and 43% fly-balls, he’ll now pitch in a big time hitter’s park and he’ll likely get buried.
Homer Bailey is just five starts in after missing the better part of two seasons. Naturally, it’s going to take time to get his groove back but he’s close. Bailey has 17 K’s in 21 innings. He’s walked 17 batters, which is why his ERA is so high but this is a pitcher that had outstanding control before and we’re seeing signs of him regaining that. His 12% swing and miss rate is rock solid for anyone, let alone a guy that’s been on the mattress for two years. Bailey’s average velocity is 94 MPH so he’s getting his strength back too. Bailey’s groundball rate of 47% is solid too. On the road back to full health after May 2015 TJS, the oddsmakers like what they’re seeing. We do too. There was a lot to like about Bailey pre-surgery, including a rising groundball % and solid command-related skills. If Bailey is healthy, there is plenty of profit waiting and we’ll put that to the test here. Miami may look like the right play on paper but under then hood, the host Reds are the prudent choice.
Pittsburgh -1½ +225 over COLORADO
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
16-25 + 21.65 units
San Diego +148 over SAN FRANCISCO
After getting incinerated in Colorado for three days straight, the Padres and their beaten up bullpen went into San Fran last night against Madison Bumgarner and took the opener. That win could set the tone for the rest of the weekend, as the Padres have been in a good state of mind all season while the Giants state of mind has been the complete opposite. State of mind counts for something. Pay no attention to Jeff Samardzija’s 4.86 ERA. He’s one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball but when you’re pitching for a team that can’t get out of its own way, bad things are bound to happen. We’ll profile Samardzija more at a later date when we’re getting behind him. For now, this one is all about fading the Giants and getting behind San Diego and its elite starter.
After getting incinerated in Colorado for three days straight, the Padres and their beaten up bullpen went into San Fran last night against Madison Bumgarner and took the opener. That win could set the tone for the rest of the weekend, as the Padres have been in a good state of mind all season while the Giants state of mind has been the complete opposite. State of mind counts for something.
On October 29, 2015, the Padres hired Andy Green, a young guy who had proven his feel for the job in the minors. A year and a half in, they look brilliant. Hiring a manager for his managerial profile instead of for his name value as a former player is an increasingly rare bit of common-sense genius. In San Diego’s case, it's helped them establish an identity and put together some good runs despite deficient talent that hasn't allowed them to contend. Green is a Manager of the Year candidate and the Padres believe in what they’re doing. They’re feisty too and now they’ll send out their best pitcher here.
After seemingly flaming out as a starter, Trevor Cahill made the transition to the bullpen over the past couple of seasons. He looked good at times, and appeared to be "back from the dead." Still, there were no signs he'd ever get back to elite status but that's exactly what he's done. What's going on, and can it last? Cahill's skills are off the charts. He's had a huge surge in strikeouts, which is fully supported by his excellent 15% swing and miss rate. He's throwing a little harder than his previous days as a starter and also changed up his repertoire a bit. Throwing more curves and bringing his slider back have led to batters chasing out of the zone and he's getting a lot of swings and misses with both pitches (19% on curve, 26% on slider). Walks have been an issue throughout Cahill's career, but his control is the lowest it's been since 2010. The fact that he's getting first pitch strikes at an above average rate suggests he may be able to hold those gains. He continues to do an excellent job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 57% groundball rate. He's being victimized by a high hr/f again, but homers aren't going to be a major problem for him. To summarize, Cahill is getting more whiffs than ever before (71 in 57 innings) and limiting the walks, while continuing to keep the ball on the ground. It's a deadly combination that makes him worth backing every time he’s priced like this.
Pass CFL
DOC'S SPORTS
Texas vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Over 8
I like the ‘over’ in the opener of this weekend series because, frankly, it doesn’t make a ton of sense. The Rangers haven’t been hitting the ball at all. Tampa Bay doesn’t have a big offense. But I just think that the public is going to get burned wit this one. The ‘over’ is 11-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 14 games after an off day and the ‘over’ is 21-9 in the Rays’ last 29 games overall. Tampa Bay has played ‘over’ in 11 straight home games and Alex Cobb, who can be inconsistent, is kind of due for a dud start. The same goes for Yu Darvish. Both starters are capable of dominating and both have been very consistent. But something tells me that they are going to get touched up for five combined runs and then the bullpens are going to cough up enough runs for this one to flop over.
BRANDON LEE
Rangers vs. Rays
Play: Under 8½
Two really good starters taking the mound in this one. Texas sends out Yu Darvish, who despite a 6-8 record has pitched well in 2017. Darvish owns a 3.38 ERA and 1.141 WHIP in 20 starts and has actually been even better on the road with a 2.37 ERA and 1.088 WHIP (UNDER 8-1 in Darvish's 9 road starts). On the flip side we have Alex Cobb going for Tampa Bay and Cobb has been rolling here of late. Cobb is 3-1 in his last 5 starts and has given up just 1 run over his last 2 starts (15+ innings). Cobb also owns a 2.64 ERA in 7 starts at home on the season.