Thursday 5/5/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
Carmine Bianco
5% NHL TOP PLAY - Florida in Regulation
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mlb-undertips info
San Diego Padres – Miami Marlins
Under 7.5
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marcotips
ITALY : Serie A
Salernitana vs Venezia
2 or 3 goals
Odds : 2.00
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both-score uk
EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE
AS Roma – Leicester
Both to score : YES
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baseball33
MLB : USA
Cleveland Guardians – Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays -1
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Andy Lang
PGA Wells Fargo
3% Matt Kuchar ov Jason Day -115
2% Rickie Fowler ov Denny McCarthy -140
4% CT Pan Will Make The Cut
3% Corey Conners Top Canadian -110
3% Sepp Straka ov Abraham Ancer +105
2% CT Pan over Taylor Moore -137
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The Prez
3% New York Rangers -160
3% REGULATION Florida Panthers -145
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Matt Severance
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. RANGERS | 05/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. RANGERS -140
ANALYSIS: I'm still pretty furious that the Rangers lost Game 1 when they had a 2-0 lead in the second period and had the game-winning goal overturned by what clearly was not goalie interference late in the third. Yet in double OT and triple OT, the Blueshirts couldn't solve Pens third-string netminder Louis Domingue after he replaced an injured Casey DeSmith. If DeSmith had to leave in double OT of a playoff game, I am hard-pressed to imagine he plays in Game 2. He is listed day-to-day; NHL teams never say what is ailing a player. Kudos to Domingue for his great performance in relief, but I don't see him beating the desperate Rangers at MSG in Game 2 on Thursday.
+2724 97-46-4 IN LAST 147 NHL PICKS
WASHINGTON @ COLORADO | 05/05 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -134
ANALYSIS: I've been noticing I tend to save around 20 cents or more on Rockies home games when I pick them early like this -- at least when they are favored against bad teams. The pitching matchup in the matinee Thursday certainly seems to favor the Rox with Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 3.66) against the Nats' Aaron Sanchez (1-1, 6.75). Senzatela is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA in three home starts. Washington is likely to be without DH Nelson Cruz again due to back troubles (not that he has been hitting much, but one less big bat).
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Larry Hartstein
WASHINGTON @ COLORADO | 05/05 | 3:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -137
ANALYSIS: The Rockies are 10-5 at home, averaging 5.5 runs, and should tee off on Washington's Aaron Sanchez, who's allowed a stunning hard-hit rate of 59.4 percent. Colorado's Antonio Senzatela is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA in three home starts, though he has struggled with a few Nats' batters historically. Still, the price is very reasonable on the hosts. They're 33-13 in their last 46 as favorites.
CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE | 05/05 | 1:40 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: Hunter Greene is a hard-throwing rookie the Reds hope to build around, but he's walked eight batters in his last two starts and sports a 6.00 ERA to go with a 1.61 WHIP. Not only are the Reds 3-21 and coming off an 18-4 loss Wednesday, they're dealing with a COVID outbreak that's sidelined Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin and Nick Senzel. Eventually Cincinnati is going to win its fourth game or at least lose by one, but for now I'll keep playing against them on the run line; for Thursday's matinee that price is -108.
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Max Gorenstein
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 05/05 | 6:45 PM EDT
N.Y. METS 130
ANALYSIS: This will be both starting pitchers third meeting against their opponent. Mets starter Taijuan Walker's only two starts have come against the Phillies. Walker has pitched a total of seven innings allowing just two hits and zero runs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola struggled in both of his starts against the Mets. He allowed three runs in both games as the Phillies lost both games. Love taking this Mets team as the underdog.
CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE | 05/05 | 1:40 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Reds are brutally terrible. They have lost 19 of their last 20 games and they lost by multiple runs in 18 of those games. Now they will have Hunter Greene starting. The Reds lost each of Greene's last three starts by at least two runs. Brewers' starter Adrian Houser has only allowed six runs through four starts, including just one run in two home starts. Expect the Brewers offense to dominate the Reds pitching again in this game. Laying the extra run at -115.
+370 8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB PICKS
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Ashley covers:
Mets moneyline
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MLB-Martingale
1 UNITS
Boston Red Sox - Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels -1.5
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ZITI Sports
NHL PLAYOFFS
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers UNDER 5.5 +110 (7:00 PM)
MLB
Washington Nationals +129 Colorado Rockies (3:10 PM)
Miami Marlins +103 San Diego Padres (9:40 PM)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners UNDER 6.5 +100 (9:40 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
UEFA - Europa Conference League- Marseille vs. Feyenoord UNDER 3 -113 (3:00 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
Sweden - Allsvenskan- Djurgardens IF vs. Helsingborgs IF OVER 2.5 -122 (1:00 PM)
UEFA - Europa Conference League- AS Roma vs. Leicester City OVER 2.5 +102 (3:00 PM)
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Carmine Bianco
2% NHL NY Rangers/Florida/Colorado Money Line Parlay +195
2% Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 (-150)
2% Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers
Total Over 6.5 (-135)
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Price
7
Rockies
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Jack jones
20
Brewers rl
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Jim feist
Brewers rl
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Matt Severance
L.A. ANGELS @ BOSTON | 05/05 | 1:35 PM EDT
BOSTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: I am still apoplectic that the Red Sox lost to the Angels last night despite leading 2-0, 3-2 and 4-3. Unbelievable. I hadn't planned to play this game today with Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Halos, but historically he has been much worse on the road. But the final reason I decided to play Sox on the RL (-150) is no Mike Trout in the lineup for Los Angeles. Rich Hill generally gives the Sox four good innings and then Tanner Houck will piggyback him, and Houck has been excellent of late in that role.
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John Bollman
CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE | 05/05 | 1:40 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: I usually stay away from run lines just because there’s no incentive for a team to win by more than 1 run, however the Reds are in crisis mode right now. Hunter Greene will be very good in the Major Leagues but this is still just his 5th start. He won’t get deep into the game and the Reds have the worst bullpen in the league. Adrian Houser has pitched very well so far this season and the Brewers have the 6th best bullpen in the league. The Reds are missing a bunch of players on the COVID IL as well, take the Brewers on the run line.
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. RANGERS | 05/05 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. RANGERS -160
ANALYSIS: This line seems a little juiced from the last game because the Rangers can’t go down 2-0, but I think there’s usually much more pressure on the home team in Game 1. They should play a bit more freely tonight and they have a massive goalie advantage with Igor Shesterkin behind them. MSG will be rockin and the Penguins will most likely be starting their third string goalie in Louis Domingue in net tonight. I like the Rangers at home to even the series.
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 05/05 | 6:45 PM EDT
N.Y. METS 140
ANALYSIS: Why do the Phillies keep commanding these massive home lines? They are just 11-14 on the season and they’ve now lost three games in a row. The Mets are already 4-2 against them on the season with series wins at home and in Philly. They also hit righties much better than the Phillies, the Mets are ranked 2nd in the league in wOBA against righties. This will be these starting pitcher’s third time seeing the opposing lineup already and that definitely favors the hitters. That would negate any sort of advantage the Phillies had there so this game seems way closer to a toss up to me. The Mets are 9-4 on the road this season, I like the value in the Mets.
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE | 05/05 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE 115
ANALYSIS: Both Robbie Ray and Shane McClanahan have been solid to start the season, so I think that is mostly a wash. The Rays bullpen has actually been slightly better than the Mariners overall, the Rays are ranked 5th while the Mariners are ranked 11th. Andrew Kittridge will also be unavailable for the Rays having pitched 3 days in a row. The Mariners hit lefties well and so do the Rays this season. However, in the last two weeks, the Rays have slowed down while the Mariners have actually been better against lefties. The Mariners are 7-2 at home and they were able to save all their top bullpen arms against Houston. These two teams played in Tampa Bay last week with the Rays winning two out of three, but the two losses were one run games. I expect that final score to slip with these games now on the West Coast.
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Allie O'Neill
NASHVILLE @ COLORADO | 05/05 | 9:30 PM EDT
OVER 6.5
ANALYSIS: We saw the Predators and Avalanche play each other four times in the regular season and already once in the post season— all of these went over 6.5. The Predators currently hold the record for the most road overs at 31-11-0. With Juuse Saros out, backup David Rittich has taken over goaltending duties for the Predators, leaving plenty of goals to be scored by the Avalanche. Nashville should be able to finish off the over on Darcy Kuemper, as he posts a 3.52 GAA in three starts against the Preds this season. Take the over for game two.
+204 14-10-1 IN LAST 25 NHL O/U PICKS
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Greg Shaker
3* MLB TOM
TB/SEA OVER 6.5
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Dave Essler
3* GOM
Marlins EV
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ATS COVERS
NHL 9:35 pm Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 for 1 units
NHL 10:05 pm Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames
Calgary Flames -1.5 for 1 units
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Ben Burns
1* Florida -240
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
THE NIGHT CAP
Shaun King
Oaks-Derby Double: Secret Oath, Nest, Kathleen O, Shahamah/Messier, White Abarrio
Kenny Rice
Zandon (3-1) to win the Kentucky Derby
Duane Colucci
Panthers -1.5 (+100) vs Capitals
Zandon (3-1) to win Kentucky Derby
THE LOOKAHEAD
Scott Seidenberg
PARLAY - Astros (-195) / Brewers (-265) / Yankees F5 (-140) = (+257)
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mitch Moss
Rays/Mariners Over 6.5 (-120)
Nigel Seeley
Eintracht Frankfurt-West Ham United O2.5
Ranger-RB Leipzig O2.5
Swansea-QPR O2.5
A NUMBERS GAME
Gill Alexander
Jessica Pegula -141 over Teichmann
Peter Fornatale
Mo Donagel to win the Kentucky Derby
Drew Dinsick
Messier to win the Kentucky Derby
Will Hill
Chris Paul Finals MVP +550
Rays-Mariners F5 under 3.5
Blue Jays -145 over Guardians
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #970 Seattle +110 (Ray)
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John Bollman
ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 05/05 | 9:45 PM EDT
UNDER 7
ANALYSIS: Maybe I have completely lost it deviating from my usual money line plays, but I really like both starting pitchers here. Miles Mikolas actually has reverse splits so far this season so he should have success against the Giants lefties. Logan Webb has been dominant for the Giants at home and he should continue to have success against a righty heavy Cardinals lineup. The Giants are also missing a few key players in the COVID IL which is why I am playing the under and not the ML. I might come back to the Giants on the ML later tonight depending on the lineup, but I like the under with these two starters and the back ends of the two bullpens.
DETROIT @ HOUSTON | 05/05 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -155
ANALYSIS: The Tigers have now lost 8 of their last 10 games and they are 3-6 on the road. They are also 3-9 against teams over .500 this season. They have the best bullpen in the league, but the Astros can match them with the 4th ranked bullpen in the league. The Astros are finally healthy and they just swept the Mariners. They have won 7 of their last 10 games, I like the Astros at home.
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Zack Cimini
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE | 05/06 | 1:40 AM UTC
TAMPA BAY -130
ANALYSIS: On Thursday, the Seattle Mariners are returning home from a lengthy nine-game road trip. They’re coming off being swept by the Houston Astros and have dropped seven of their last eight. Look for the Rays to have the edge as they saw Robbie Ray six times last season. He’s also had issues as of late avoiding a big inning. Take the Rays.
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO | 05/06 | 1:40 AM UTC
SAN DIEGO -105
ANALYSIS: The San Diego Padres will face an interleague matchup Thursday against the Miami Marlins. This comes after the Padres played a double-header Wednesday against the Cleveland Guardians. While the Padres may be sluggish at the plate to start, they’ll take advantage of a Marlins bullpen that has been disastrous lately. Take the Padres.
+625 9-3 IN LAST 12 MLB ML PICKS
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