Friday 5/6/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games
The Prez
(1) Carolina Hurricanes at (2) Boston Bruins
4% Total Over 5.5 (-120)
(7) Edmonton Oilers at (8) Los Angeles Kings
3% Edmonton Oilers -145
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GreenPunter
New York Yankees – Texas Rangers
New York Yankees -1.5
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mlb8
Philadelphia Phillies - New York Mets
Over 7.5
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Andy Lang
NBA
4% Dwight Powell under 9' PRA (-125)
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MLB-Martingale
1 UNITS
Baltimore Orioles - Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals -1.5 @ 2.60
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CleInsiderSports
Basketball - NBA - Heat ML
Basketball - NBA - Suns/Mavs U219.5
Baseball - MLB - Red Sox ML
Baseball - MLB - Mets/Phillies O7
Hockey - NHL - Blues ML
Hockey - NHL - Maple Leafs/Lightning U6.5
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Carmine Bianco
3% Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues
Total Under 6.5 (-120)
3% Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Edmonton Oilers -145
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Mcinnis
4* bruins o5.5
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MLB
Note:
Dodgers/Cubs game postponed due to rain.
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Pure Lock
10* Oakland A's +159
10* Phoenix Suns +1
10* St. Louis Blues -115
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AccuScore Picks
4* 76ers +3
4* Hurricanes vs. Bruins Over 5.5
4* Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Over 6.5
4* Wild vs. Blues Over 6.5
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #909 Colorado +130 (Kuhl)
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Griffin warner
10*padres-123
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Scott Spreitzer
5* Dallas PK
4* Astros/Angels Parlay +130
3* Lightning -120
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Tomas Sports
Dallas Mavs ml
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Buster Sports
5* Dallas Mavericks 0.0 (-110)
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Jim Feist
Mariners
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Jack Jones
15
Pirates
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
GONE RACIN' PODCAST
Brendan Gaughan
Martin Truex Jr To Win +700
Ross Chastain Top 3 +400
Kyle Busch OV Kyle Larson +130
Kevin Harvick To Win Group B +325
Justin Haley Group F +295
Jeff Motley
Christopher Bell Top 3 +800
Kurt Busch OV Chase Briscoe +105
Tyler Reddick To Win Group C +300
Erik Jones To Win Group D +325
Ross Chastain Top Chevy +700
THE LOOKAHEAD
Scott Seidenberg
Heat (-3) vs 76ers
Suns (-1) vs Mavericks
Bruins (-130) vs Hurricanes
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mitch Moss
Grizzlies (+7) vs Warriors
Reds-Pirates Over 7 (Saturday)
Pauly Howard
Charles Oliveira (-160)
Grizzlies (+7) vs Warriors
Lightning (-120) vs Maple Leafs
Flames-Stars Under 5.5
Erin Rynning
Suns/Mavericks Under 219.5
Lou Finocchiaro
Charles Oliveira -190
Rose Namajunas -200
Tony Ferguson +290
Randy Brown by Decision
Lupita Godinez -170
Fernie Garcia -150
Jeff Siegel
No. 7 Americaredwhiteblu 5/2
No. 8 So It Would Seem on top 5/2
No 10. Zandon
A NUMBERS GAME
Jason Weingarten
Reds +122 over Pirates
Andy MacNeil
Cale Makar 13/1 to win the Conn Smythe
Paul Carr
Brentford +130 over Southampton
Brighton +185 over Man United
Liverpool-Tottenham over 3.5 +130
THE EDGE
Matt Youmans
Mavericks (PK) vs Suns
Kentucky Derby Top 4
3-Epicenter, 6-Messier, 9-Tiz the Bomb, 10-Zandon
MY GUYS IN THE DESERT
Danielle Alvari
WNBA
Sparks +4
Storm -6.5
Storm Lynx under 165.5
Aces -3.5
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Mets/Phillies Postponed
Rangers/Yankees Postponed
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ATS Covers
NBA 7:05 pm Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
Miami Heat -2 for 1 units
NBA 9:35 pm Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks 0 for 1 units
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IC
NBA
4 - Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia Sixers
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Sean Murphy
Boston red sox
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Ricky Tran
Cardinals +1.5
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Jeff Hochman
PHOENIX @ DALLAS | 05/06 | 9:30 PM EDT
DALLAS +1
ANALYSIS: The Suns shot the lights out (62.5%) from the field in Wednesday's victory. Phoenix is just 1-3 in game No. 3 of NBA playoff series of late. Dallas should be able to get better bench production at home. I think just one day rest instead of two benefits Dallas more. Take the hungry host!
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 NBA PICKS
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Matt Severance
CAROLINA @ BOSTON | 05/06 | 7:00 PM EDT
BOSTON -129
ANALYSIS: Not only are the Bruins 0-5 vs. the Hurricanes this season, Boston hasn't even led. So what am I doing here? I am backing the much more experienced rookie goaltender in the Bruins' Jeremy Swayman (played 41 games this season and a handful in 2020-21) over the Canes' Pyotr Kochetkov, who will start with both Frederik Andersen and now Antti Raanta injured. The Russian did look good in relief of Raanta in Game 2, but making your first-ever playoff start (and only fifth NHL appearance) on the road is a different matter entirely. Carolina is 2-5 in its past seven as a road dog. It's desperation time for Boston, which steals this one and perhaps this one only.
MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA | 05/06 | 7:00 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA +3.5
ANALYSIS: Let's take a shot here. I think Joel Embiid does play after participating in shootaround this morning. Might the Sixers still lose by more than 4? Sure if he's well less than 100 percent, but this is their season so I think they can at worst hang close if the MVP is in there and this number will only drop if he is.
+2233 111-65-1 IN LAST 177 NBA PICKS
EDMONTON @ LOS ANGELES | 05/06 | 10:00 PM EDT
UNDER 6.5
ANALYSIS: There won't be many picks from me today on hockey or MLB (weather looks like an issue in several) as I simply hate the board plus some early Mother's Day festivities. The books simply aren't letting us take a +1.5 puckline because they are so ridiculously priced. I was leaning that way on this game but not at -210 on LA. So, we'll do the total. These teams combined for seven goals in Game 1 and six in Game 2. The Oilers are dynamic offensively but averaged about .4 goals fewer on the road in the regular season and the Kings having the last line change will help them get their best defensive group out there vs. Connor McDavid & Co. The only chance LA has of winning is a tight-checking, defensive battle.
+3004 101-47-4 IN LAST 152 NHL PICKS
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John Bollman
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE | 05/06 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -130
ANALYSIS: Logan Gilbert has been dominant this season, and he takes on a Rays team that is just in the middle of the pack ranked 15th in wOBA in the league against righties. He has yet to allow more than 1 run in a start this season. Josh Fleming has struggled this season and he was just rocked by the Twins. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an opener before game time here, so this might be the only time I would recommend not to make the play with the pitchers listed. If you have the option, list Logan Gilbert but do not list Josh Fleming. This means the bet is void if Logan Gilbert is pulled from the start, however, the bet still goes through if the Rays change pitchers. The Mariners have actually been hitting lefties better as of late and they are ranked 12th in the league overall in wOBA. Shane McClanahan was dominant last night touching 100mph with a nasty slider, so it was easy to see why the Mariners were having trouble with him. Fleming doesn’t nearly have the velocity that McClanahan does so I think the Mariners will have much more success tonight. I like the Mariners at home where they are 7-3 this season.
COLORADO @ ARIZONA | 05/06 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA -145
ANALYSIS: Merrill Kelly has been absolutely dominant so far this season pitching a quality start in each of his last three appearances and putting up a 1.27 ERA in 5 starts. Chad Kuhl has also pitched very well for the Rockies, but this Rockies team is completely different on the road. The Diamondbacks also had yesterday off to recover and reset their bullpen while the Rockies were playing at home before traveling. The Dbacks were 7-3 at home against the Rockies last season and they have sneakily won 7 of their last 10 games including three in a row at the Marlins, Ill ride this team while they’re hot.
TORONTO @ CLEVELAND | 05/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO -145
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays have been struggling lately but last night was a tough travel spot for them after a night game against the Yankees on Wednesday, and George Springer was also out of the lineup. He should be back in today against Shane Bieber. Both Bieber and Gausman have been very good, and I expect them to both be good again. However, the Guardians bullpen is worked after playing a doubleheader on Wednesday and a close game last night. Emmanuel Clase, Bryan Shaw, and Nick Sandlin would all be pitching their third game in three days if they were to appear. The Blue Jays bullpen has been struggling but they are rested after last night and everyone is available. After last night’s win, the Guardians improved to just 2-11 against winning teams this season. Take the Blue Jays on the road.
MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA | 05/06 | 7:20 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -105
ANALYSIS: The Brewers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball and they are still underdogs today. They have won 8 of their last 10 games including 3 in a row and they are now 18-8 on the season. They also just set a franchise record for number of home runs in a six game span. They head to Atlanta where they will either be facing the Braves bullpen or an opener in Jesse Chavez then one of their struggling starters. Either way I love the price on the Brewers here. Eric Lauer has been an absolute stud allowing just 2 ER in his last 19 IP. The Braves are still struggling on the season, take the Brewers in Game 1.
MINNESOTA @ ST. LOUIS | 05/06 | 9:30 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -130
ANALYSIS: The Blues were much better all season at home and they head home with this series tied at 1-1. The Wild were also much worse on the road during the season at 22-14-5. The Blues had won 6 straight games against the Wild until they lost Game 2 but I think they were looking ahead to Game 3. They are 13-3 straight up against the Wild since 2019, I think they continue to dominate this series.
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 05/06 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -130
ANALYSIS: I think this game will get rained out as it is supposed to rain all day and into tomorrow, but I will get this play in in case it does get played. The Orioles are heating up, and when they get decent pitching, they can compete. Jordan Lyles has actually pitched very well so far limiting the damage in walks and home runs. Carlos Hernandez hasn’t really been rocked yet but he has been consistent poor. He has allowed 12 runs in 18 IP this season and he has yet to pitch more than 4.1 innings. The Royals aren’t hitting right now, and they need to hit with their 3rd worst bullpen in the league. Take the Os at home.
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Micah Roberts
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE | 05/06 | 9:40 PM EDT
SEATTLE -130
ANALYSIS: The Mariners have won nine straight behind starter Logan Gilbert dating to last season. However, the Mariners have lost four straight, while the Rays have won four straight. Gilbert beat the Rays 8-4 two weeks ago, going 5.2 innings without allowing a run. Gilbert has allowed only two runs all season. Take the Mariners to win.
+615 12-6 IN LAST 18 MLB ML PICKS
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ZITI Sports
WNBA kicks off tonight. I have today's and Saturday's NBA & NHL Playoff action.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -110 Atlanta Braves (7:20 PM)
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros UNDER 8 +100 (8:10 PM)
San Francisco Giants -123 St. Louis Cardinals (10:15 PM)
NHL PLAYOFFS
MAY 6TH
St. Louis Blues -125 Minnesota Wild (9:30 PM) (2 BOXES OF ZITI)
MAY 7TH
Colorado Avalanche vs. Nashville Predators OVER 6.5 -120 (4:30 PM)
NBA PLAYOFFS
MAY 6TH
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks UNDER 218 -110 (9:30 PM)
MAY 7TH
Boston Celtics +2 -110 Milwaukee Bucks (3:30 PM)
WNBA
Los Angeles Sparks +3.5 -110 Chicago Sky (8:00 PM)
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury OVER 174 -110 (10:00 PM)
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Tor/Cle Postponed
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Dr. Chuck
4* Arizona Diamondbacks -140
I don't mind paying this price AT ALL!
Merrill should almost always be bigger chalk at home against a team that isn't one of a handful of opponents….the Rox NOT being one of them…
The Dbacks are a surprise overachiever here…especially for gambling purposes…and this almost completely fits the fade the beg on the Rockies spot…
On top of that…Kuhl is STILL a fade for me…and amongst others…specifically his .150 BABIP…when he doesn't get as many swings and misses as he should to make that worth its while…oh and the Dbacks are one of the best non chasing batting orders who also swing and miss at just a 10% rate…combined with the 29% chase rate this doesn't bode well for Chad Kuhl…
But again….don't threaten ME with a good time…taking out the favorite and just adding the “spots”…the home team is normally a +150 dog…but when they are favored taking into account all other aspects and first game of series…
The Dbacks team in this spot is 14-6 SU since 2021, 4-1 SU this season and 17-3 F5 with a 5-0 F5 record this season!!!!
(Yes I'm on both…BIG!)
4* 1H Arizona Diamondbacks -150
A Push here would be a loss…by my numbers ….so let's GET AFTER IT!
4* San Francisco Giants -122
OOOOPS hang by the books here…series evens up at 1-1 with Cobb righting the ship here and Hicks struggling with the healthier and healthier SF Lineup!
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Allie O'Neill
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 05/06 | 6:40 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: In his five starts this season, JT Brubaker holds a 6.20 ERA over 20.1 IP. Even though the Reds have been absolutely terrible so far this season, we've started to see their offense warm up. Connor Overton was excellent in his start at Coors, but he played for the Pirates last season, so Pittsburgh should be well prepared. While neither offense is particularly impressive, both teams allow their opponents plenty of runs. The Reds allow their opponents more runs than any other team in the league, an average of 6.64 per game. The Pirates are the third worst, allowing opponents 5.25. If this game doesn't get rained out, I'll take the over.
+491 11-5-1 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS
4:05 PM
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Brandon Lang
80 Dime - Suns
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Dave Cokin
4% Astros-Twins +137 Money Line Parlay
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KC/BALT Postponed
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MADDUX
Philadelphia +3
Phoenix & Dallas Under 219
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EAGLE EYE SPORTS--D-MOOSE
Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers Under
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In Game Trap
Tampa Bay Lightning -118 (20*)
St Louis Blues -125 (10*)
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Ross Benjamin
5* Dallas ML
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Zack Cimini
FEATURED PICK
PHOENIX @ DALLAS | 05/06 | 9:30 PM EDT
PHOENIX +1
ANALYSIS: After an odd first round against the Pelicans, the Suns have transformed into top-tier play. This is another high level test for Phoenix, which lost three Game 3s last postseason. Yet, the Suns have too many weapons for Dallas to counter. Take the Suns as they win their 12th straight game over Dallas.
MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA | 05/06 | 7:00 PM EDT
MIAMI -120
ANALYSIS: Game 3 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat is set to take place with the status of Joel Embiid still uncertain. Either way, expect the Miami Heat to continue their optimal defensive effort and avoid the second half lull that cost them in Game 3 against the Atlanta Hawks. Grab the Heat as they get one game closer to going back to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in three years.
+1130 19-7 IN LAST 26 NBA PICKS
COLORADO @ ARIZONA | 05/06 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA -140
ANALYSIS: An aberration of Chad Kuhl’s season for the Rockies has led Colorado to a 4-0 record when he starts. On Friday, they travel to take on NL West divisional opponent in the Arizona Diamondbacks, who had Thursday off. Expect the Diamondbacks to be refreshed after a two-series road trip, and to keep their hot hitting going. Play Arizona.
+825 11-3 IN LAST 14 MLB ML PICKS
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