JIMMY BOYD
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play: Phillies -133
I like the value here with Philadelphia at home against the struggling Brewers. Phillies are clearly out of the playoff race but have been playing well. They won the final 2 of a 3-game series at Miami and have the offense rolling, scoring at least 5 runs in 4 straight games, including a 10-run outburst last time out on Wednesday. So while Matt Garza has thrown the ball well of late, I think the Phillies bats will do enough damage here.
I believe Milwaukee is feeling the pressure of the Cubs, who have won 6 straight out the break to turn a 5.5-game deficit in the NL Central to just 1-game. The Brewers have lost 5 straight and were just swept in a 4-game series against the Pirates. The offense isn't there for Milwaukee, as they have now scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 straight games. Hard to see them snapping out of that funk against the red-hot Aaron Nola, who is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA in his last 5 starts and it's worth noting he's got an impressive 51 strikeouts over 35 1/3 innings during this run.
TEDDY DAVIS
Cardinals vs. Cubs
Play: Cubs -1½
The Cubs are perfect since All Star break and I see that continuing here. Arrieta after a slow start has really picked it up as of late with a 1.46 ERA his last three starts. He also owns a 9-3 career record against the Cardinals with a 2.26 ERA.
Martinez just hasn't been up to par with a 2-5 road record and a 6.35 ERA his last three starts. He has pitched well against the Cubs in both starts this year, but both of those were at home and he is facing a different Cubs lineup with a lot of confidence right now
DAVE ESSLER
Pirates at Rockies
Play: Pirates
The Pirates have won a ton in a row, and their bullpen has been tremendous. Williams is getting better every start, the Rockies haven't seen him, and he's been GREAT at keeping the ball down and in the park - which should serve him well in this park. Colorado has been mashing the ball, but against the Padres and Mets pitching staffs. Hoffman has been giving up runs, and in his last start had TWO ground ball outs and nineteen fly ball outs. If that happens here the Rockies, who may be without Blackmon, will get killed. At plus-money, this is a total "perception" line IMO. Hoffmans' home/road splits are TERRIBLE, so yes, even at 11.5 I lean to the over.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -175
The Chicago White Sox have lost six in a row, ranked #23 in runs scored on offense, #22 in on-base percentage, and tote a 19-31 record on the road. They are stuck with aging starter James Shields (5.10 ERA), who has an 8.10 ERA in his last four starts. Chicago is 23-46 against a starting pitcher who gives up one or more homers per start, plus 26-57 away against a right-handed starter. They face a Kansas City Royals squad in a pennant race, off a 16-4 rout of Detroit yesterday. Royals' righty Ian Kennedy is unbeaten in his last seven starts, with Kansas City going 6-1. He is 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA in the seven starts. Kansas City plays its eighth straight home game here and is on a 15-7 run against a right-handed starter. The White Sox are also just 4-10 at Kansas City.
Otto Sports
San Diego at San Francisco
Play: San Diego +148
What's the old saying? You'll never make money betting on bad teams? That's not always true as all teams, both good and bad, can offer value. But I do subscribe to it being tough to make money backing bad MLB teams as sizable chalk. It's not even August, and every coach and player for the San Francisco Giants is counting the days until this disaster of a season is over. After last night's loss (as -200 favorites) the Giants sit at 37-60. Tonight, Jeff Samardzija and his much ballyhooed K-to-BB ratio take the hill. He's no doubt pitched better than a 4.86 ERA but he's also coughed up 20 home runs and hammered into submission last time out against these same Padres to the tune of seven runs over six innings. I'm shocked that San Diego hasn't moved Trevor Cahill who has everything you want in a midseason starting pitcher acquisition: K rate (11.1 per 9), GB rate (56.8%), 3.23 FIP, and most important, freshness with only 57.1 IP on the season. Those numbers probably won't last assuming he takes the hill every fifth day the remainder of the season. But right now, is there really a difference between what he brings to the table and Samardzija? And is there really a difference between either of these bottom feeder teams? The answer to both is no. Which is why grabbing nearly +150 with the underdog warrants a play.
Buster Sports
Red Sox vs. Angels
Play: Angels +170
We had a nice HUGE underdog winner on Atlanta last night and we are going to take another flyer on another HUGE underdog tonight in the LA Angels. The pitching matchup tonight is for the Red Sox LH Chris Sale (11-4, 2.59 ERA) and he will face the Angels RH Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 4.82 ERA) Sale has been fantastic this year but if you are going to get these guys who are the best in the business it is usually on the road. His ERA is a full 1 run higher on the road this year. As for Nolasco he has started to come around as of late. In his last 2 starts at home he has gave up only 1 run in 16 innings. Sale has 11 wins this year but he could easily have more. He has really been hindered by some bad run support. We see a similar story for him tonight. We are getting plus 170 with the home dog and we will be glad to take it.
Power Sports
Toronto vs. Cleveland
Pick: Cleveland -140
The Tribe enters into this series off B2B very disappointing losses to the Giants as both games were lost in the final at-bat. Overall, it's been a bad start to the second half for the defending AL Champs as they dropped five of six on the West Coast and were swept by the lowly A's. What's ironic is that the club had been playing far better on the road (were 26-16) than at home (21-24) in the first half. But that home record HAS to improve, sooner or later right? With the benefit of a day off here, I like Cleveland to take out Toronto in a rematch of LY's ALCS.
This will be the Blue Jays' first venture into Progressive Field since losing both Games 1 & 2 in LY's ALCS. In case you haven't been paying attention, the Blue Jays have fallen much further than the Indians in 2017 as they're in last place in the AL East w/ a -72 run differential (2nd worst in AL). Even though Cleveland has a very mediocre record (48-45), they still have a +63 run differential, on the back of allowing the FEWEST number of runs in the American League!
The struggling Cleveland offense should be able to knock around Marco Estrada here as tonight's Blue Jays starter comes in sporting an 8.52 ERA and 2.131 WHIP his L3 turns in the rotation. Now, their own Trevor Bauer has not been much better of late, but coming off one of the shortest outings of career, he should be prepared to bounce back. He's pitched pretty well his last two starts here at home, including outdueling Yu Darvish back on 6.28.
JOHN MARTIN
Brewers vs. Phillies
Play:Brewers +126
The Milwaukee Brewers were just swept in four games by the Pittsburgh Pirates and are now undervalued. At 32-61 on the season, the Philadelphia Phillies don't deserve to be favorites here against the NL Central-leading Brewers. Matt Garza has turned it on of late in going 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three starts. Garza is 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 previous starts against the Phillies. He faced them in his last start on July 16th, giving up only one earned run in five innings of work. I expect the Brewers to get back on track against the worst team in baseball in the Phillies tonight.
JACK JONES
Miami at Cincinnati
Play: Miami +105
The Cincinnati Reds are favored today and they really shouldn't be favored against anyone. They are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall while getting outscored 22-61 in the process. They have the worst rotation in baseball and have allowed at least 10 runs in four of those seven games.
Homer Bailey has been rocked this season since returning from the disabled list. Bailey is 2-3 with a massive 10.12 ERA and 2.156 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with an 18.00 ERA and 2.571 WHIP in two home starts.
Jose Urena has held his own for the Marlins in going 7-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 14 starts. He hasn't lost yet on the road this year, going 4-0 with a 4.50 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in six starts away from home.
Miami is a very profitable 35-24 (+17.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 4-17 after scoring 2 runs or less this season. The Marlins are 5-1 in Urena's last six road starts. The Reds are 1-7 in their last eight home games.
MARK FRANCO
Tigers vs. Twins
Play:Twins -133
The Detroit Tigers are below .500 after 94 games for the first time in 12 years, just traded away their leading home-run hitter and are coming off their most lopsided loss of the season, yet they find themselves in the thick of the American League Central race. The Tigers attempt to improve their standing in the division Friday, when they open a three-game road series against the Minnesota Twins.
Sanchez turned in his worst outing since joining the rotation five starts ago on Sunday against Toronto but escaped with a no-decision after permitting five runs and a season-high nine hits across six frames. The 33-year-old has logged at least six innings in four straight turns and been markedly more effective as a starter (3.99 ERA) than he was as a reliever (9.00). Brian Dozier is 7-for-32 with three homers against Sanchez, who is 5-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 20 career appearances (16 starts) versus the Twins.
Santana rebounded from a pair of losses with a win on Saturday, allowing two runs on five hits and a season high-tying five walks over six innings at Houston. The two-time All-Star has fallen off substantially since ending May with a 7-2 record and 1.75 ERA, going 4-4 with a 4.93 ERA in eight outings over the last two months. Ian Kinsler (23-for-71, three home runs) and Victor Martinez (12-for-37, two homers) both have fared well against Santana, who is 9-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 19 career starts against Detroit.
Tigers are 3-12 in Sanchezs last 15 road starts. Twins are 5-0 in Santanas last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
DAVE PRICE
Pirates vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -133
We're getting a pretty generous price on the Colorado Rockies at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates today. The Rockies have gotten back on track by winning 4 straight games and scoring a combined 49 runs, or an average of 12.3 RPG during the winning streak. They should feast on Trevor Williams, who is 2-3 with a 4.56 ERA in 13 starts, and 2-2 with a 5.16 ERA in 6 road starts. Jeff Hoffman has been very effective this season in going 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts. The Pirates are 1-5 in Williams' last 6 starts. The Rockies are 7-3 in Hoffman's last 10 starts. Pittsburgh played yesterday while Colorado had Thursday off. The Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 games following an off day.
Jesse Schule
Texas at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
Texas will be a favorite in Tampa tonight, despite the fact that they are coming off five straight losses. The Rays are only 2.5 games out of first in the AL East, while Texas is 18 games back in the AL West. Alex Cobb will toe the rubber for the Rays, and he's coming off a solid outing. The right-hander allowed one run on six hits over 7 2/3 innings in a 6-3 win at LA his last time out. He's 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA in seven home starts this season, and he blanked Texas for seven innings the last time he faced them. The Rangers hand the ball to Yu Darvish, who has not picked up a win in any of his last six appearances. Texas has actually lost nine of 10 in his last 10 starts. He's surrendered at least three runs in four of his last six starts, and he owns a 5.40 ERA in the month of July. Tampa has won four of it's last five versus Texas, and the Rays are 9-3 in their last 12 home games versus a right-handed starter.
Jeff Benton
Friday freebie is Under the total in the Brewers-Phillies game.
Milwaukee has played 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 Under the total, and that includes Unders in 2 of 3 played against Philly between July 14-16.
Philadelphia is 10-3-1 Under the total their last 14 - including that series against Milwaukee - and starter Aaron Nola has seen each of his last 3 starts hold Under the posted price. Included is 6 frames of 2-run ball his last time out in Milwaukee.
Matt Garza is right there with Nola, as each of his last 5 starts have held Under the total, and that includes 5 innings of 1-run ball versus the Phillies his last time out.
All the ingredients are there for another low-scoring contest, so no need to think too much on this one.
Brewers-Phillies Under the total.
4* MILWAUKEE-PHILADELPHIA UNDER
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for Friday night is on the Colorado Rockies over the Pittsburgh Pirates, and in this one I do not want you listing pitchers.
What we have here are a pair of surging teams, as the Colorado Rockies are suddenly playing like the team we saw earlier this season - the one that was leading the National League West - and a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is in off a four-game sweep of Milwaukee and that has won a season-high five straight games.
I know Pittsburgh has won eight of its past nine and 11 of its past 13, but the Rockies had lost 15 of 20 games getting thumped immediately after the All-Star Break - 14-2 and 9-3 to the Mets - but the Rockies have outscored opponents 49-21 during this four-game streak.
And Colorado is at home, where the Rockies rank No. 1 with their .299 at Coors Field. They also rank No. 1 with 291 runs scored in Denver, 13 runs better than the second-place Arizona Diamondbacks, who have scored 278 in Phoenix.
I like Colorado to roll in this one.
2* ROCKIES
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Houston Astros, as I like the home underdog. I won't list pitchers in this one, as the streaking O's are at a value price having won four straight.
Baltimore is in after a four-game sweep of the Texas Rangers, including Thursday's come-from-behind 9-7 victory. The Orioles have scored 31 runs in their last three games alone, and with this series at home, I have to think the offense continues to roll.
The Astros, meanwhile, dropped two of three to Seattle this week and comes into this series against Baltimore while coping with injuries to several key players.
Take the O's at plus money.
4* ORIOLES