Thursday 7/4/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 913 Detroit Tigers +101 (M Boyd | I Nova) (Thursday, July 4th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 912 Kansas City Royals +115 (Z Plesac | H Bailey) (Thursday, July 4th)
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Stephen Oh
UNDER 9.5 DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/04 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:43 AM
My numbers see a maximum of eight runs crossing the plate Thursday between the Tigers and White Sox, providing a major value position on teh Under against a total of 9.5. I'm seeing the Under hit in a whopping 70 percent of simulations. Detroit is on a 5-1 spurt to the Under and is also playing 5-2 to the Under when Matthew Boyd makes road starts against losing teams.
112-73 IN LAST 185 MLB PICKS | +3596
4-2 IN LAST 6 DET O/U PICKS | +165
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Adam Thompson
MILWAUKEE -121
MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 7/04 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:28 PM
Luis Castillo has electric stuff, but for whatever reason the free-swinging Brewers have him figured out. Castillo is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts against Milwaukee, while Brew Crew ace Brandon Woodruff mowed down Cincy with 12 strikeouts over seven innings two starts ago. Few offenses are as hot-and-cold than the Reds, and Woodruff on the mound signals a quiet day for Cincy bats.
13-6 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +542
14-8 IN LAST 22 MIL ML PICKS | +559
18-14 IN LAST 32 CIN ML PICKS | +34
DETROIT -113
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/04 | 2:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:26 PM
Ivan Nova has been a colossal disappointment, but there’s no relief in sight so the White Sox will start him once again at home on Thursday, where he’s 0-4 with an 8.31 ERA this year. Detroit’s offense is one of the worst in the league but even it has had success against Nova, shelling him for six runs in 6.1 innings. Matthew Boyd tossed a quality start against the Sox earlier this year.
13-6 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +542
3-0 IN LAST 3 DET ML PICKS | +300
N.Y. YANKEES -118
N.Y. YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY | 7/04 | 5:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:25 PM
Rays Thursday starter Yonny Chirinos has been successful against the Yankees with a 3.07 over 14.2 innings this year. But no team hits better under the sun than the pinstripes, who led MLB in runs scored (6.7), average (.275) and OPS (.851) in day games. If Chirinos gets in trouble, Tampa is throwing a bullpen game the night before and may not have the best arms available. New York starter J.A. Happ is unbeaten on the road, as his ERA is more than two runs lower and his average allowed is 70 points lower than his home splits.
13-6 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +542
12-5 IN LAST 17 TB ML PICKS | +572
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Larry Hartstein
MILWAUKEE -125
MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 7/04 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:40 AM
Luis Castillo is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in three starts versus Milwaukee this season. That includes serving up three homers and walking 12 batters in 13.1 innings. Going back further, Cincy has lost Castillo's last four starts against Milwaukee. The Brewers have won Brandon Woodruff's last eight starts against NL Central foes. Lay it.
26-10 IN LAST 36 MLB ML PICKS | +1579
30-16 IN LAST 46 CIN ML PICKS | +1132
15-5 IN LAST 20 MIL ML PICKS | +1083
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Stephen Oh
ADDED
ATLANTA -158
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA | 7/04 | 7:20 PM EDT
12:56 AM
My numbers see the Braves with a major edge Thursday against the Phillies, making Atlanta worth the moderate price. My simulations have the Braves winning this matchup 73 percent of the time and by a margin of 1.5 runs in those contests. The Braves are 8-0 in Mike Soroka's starts against NL East opponents and have own his past five home outings. Philadelphia is on a 1-5 run against right-handed starters.
106-67 IN LAST 173 MLB ML PICKS | +3686
5-0 IN LAST 5 ATL ML PICKS | +500
3-1 IN LAST 4 PHI ML PICKS | +153
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Assassin Sports
MLB
Washington Nationals -1.5 runs
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs
Minnesota Twins
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB picks 7/4
100* Tigers -110
100* Twins -130
100* Over 9.5 Indians/Royals
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mlbtotal
Washington Nationals , Over 10
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 4)
The model has 4 totals and 4 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.
904 .5* CIN +105
906 .5* CHC/PIT u9.5 -105
907 .5* PHI +153
910 .5* SD/LAD u8.5 -120
913 .5* DET -113
916 .5* MIN/OAK u10 -115
918 .5* NYY/TBR u9.5 -120
920 .5* TOR +110
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Tony Chau John Morrison
Now, let's go onward to the next bets for Champ MLB betting system for Tuesday July 3rd:
Tampa Bay Rays {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series. If the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after.
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Zack Cimini
CLEVELAND -127
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY | 7/04 | 1:15 PM EDT
8:48 AM
Against the worst team in MLB last week, the Indians were defeated in consecutive games by the Baltimore Orioles, 13-0. Indians pitcher Zach Plesac will be looking to redeem himself from that ugly outing Thursday as the Indians attempt to sweep the Royals. In Homer Bailey’s last three home starts the Royals have come out victorious. That’ll change Thursday as the Indians ride the momentum for a series sweep and Plesac settles back in.
34-25 IN LAST 59 MLB ML PICKS | +635
4-1 IN LAST 5 KC ML PICKS | +255
12-8 IN LAST 20 CLE ML PICKS | +231
OAKLAND +117
MINNESOTA @ OAKLAND | 7/04 | 4:07 PM EDT
8:46 AM
The Minnesota Twins enter Thursday’s road game against the Oakland Athletics as road favorites. Struggling to register wins has been a recent problem for Twins starter Jose Berrios. Since May 31st he has just one win in his last six starts. Although Athletics starter Tanner Anderson is 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA, look for Oakland to cash as a slight home underdog.
34-25 IN LAST 59 MLB ML PICKS | +635
15-8 IN LAST 23 OAK ML PICKS | +755
OVER 10 MIAMI @ WASHINGTON | 7/04 | 11:05 AM EDT
8:44 AM
The earliest matchup on the Fourth of July comes in the NL East between the Nationals and Marlins. Little offense was generated in Wednesday’s matchup, which resulted in a 3-1 Nationals victory. This is also their second series in a week’s time frame. Tuesday and Wednesday’s low run total, combined with the early start time, creates value for the Over.
3-1-1 IN LAST 5 MLB O/U PICKS | +194
4-0 IN LAST 4 MIA O/U PICKS | +410
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King creole
2*
Kansas City / Cleveland over 9.5
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BEN BURNS
3*
Texas -134
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
Atlanta / Philadelphia over 10
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SPARTAN
3*
Minnesota -129
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Minnesota -132
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GREG SHAKER
3*
Texas / LA ANGLES under 11
2*
Texas -115
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Montreal / Hamilton over 56.5
3*
Philadelphia +136
3*
Toronto -110
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
4:05 PM EST
Rotation #915-916
Twins -125 over A’s
Berrios/Anderson
The Twins got a nice come from behind win last night to cool off the A’s. This afternoon the Twins have the clear cut better staring pitcher in Jose Berrios. Tanner Anderson has not looked sharp in his light work this year and I believe the Twins are going to pounce on him early. Minnesota has all the momentum after that nice extra inning win last night. Take the Twins.
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Power Play Wins
(MLB) - Boston Red Sox
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Rockdeman $ports
(MLB Underdog of the Day 7-1 last 8) - Pittsburgh Pirates +115
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB - 2* Blue Jays/Red Sox Over 10
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Goodfella
3*
LA ANGLES +110
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Robin Hood
Information – Tampa Bay +104 over NY Yankees (Listed Pitchers are Happ & Chirinos). Play is good to -125.
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Friends of Mike Lee
3* Under11 Angels/Rangers listed Canning and Lynn
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ROB VENO
Game: (903) Milwaukee Brewers at (904) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -123
View Analysis
Game: (905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago Cubs -115
View Analysis
Game: (909) San Diego Padres at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 9:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-118)
Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+108)
View Analysis
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Texas Rangers -118
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB picks 7/4
100* Tigers -110
100* Twins -130
100* Over 9.5 Indians/Royals
ADDED
2500* RedSox -110
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Desert sports:
Long shot of the day: Pit +115 and phi +135
picks:
Cle -130
bos -110
mil -120
det -110
totals:
Laa/tex o 10
mil/cin u 9
phi/atl u11
chc/pit 09
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Johnny Bollman
L.A. DODGERS -236
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/04 | 9:10 PM EDT
11:59 AM
Hyun Jin Ryu is 6-0 with a .94 ERA at home this season and 9-2 with a 1.83 ERA overall. Danilson Lamet will be making his first start in 15 months after coming back from Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers just swept the Dbacks at home while the Padres were swept at home by the Giants. The Dodgers are 36-9 at home and 4-1 against the Padres this season. It’s a steep price, but lay the home favorite.
57-34 IN LAST 91 MLB ML PICKS | +1606
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAD ML PICKS | +76
TEXAS -123
L.A. ANGELS @ TEXAS | 7/04 | 8:05 PM EDT
11:57 AM
Lance Lynn is 10-4 with a 4.0 ERA and he is 6-0 with a 4.62 ERA at home. In two starts against the Angels this season he gave up four runs in 12.2 IP. In June, he was 4-0 with a 2.90 ERA. Griffin Canning is 3-4 with a 3.79 ERA and 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA on the road. In June, he was 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. The Rangers are 28-17 at home, 19-5 as the favorite, and 13-5 as the home favorite. Lay the home favorite.
57-34 IN LAST 91 MLB ML PICKS | +1606
9-2 IN LAST 11 TEX ML PICKS | +729
4-1 IN LAST 5 LAA ML PICKS | +354
ATLANTA -165
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA | 7/04 | 7:20 PM EDT
11:56 AM
Zach Eflin is 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA this season but he has a 4.38 ERA in his last eight starts, six of which the Phillies lost. On the road, he is 2-5 with a 3.62 ERA. Mike Soroka is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and he is 4-0 with a 3.71 ERA in June. The Braves are 37-18 as the favorite while the Phillies are 8-20 as the underdog. Lay the favorite.
57-34 IN LAST 91 MLB ML PICKS | +1606
3-0 IN LAST 3 PHI ML PICKS | +357
CHI. WHITE SOX -112
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/04 | 2:10 PM EDT
11:55 AM
Matthew Boyd is 5-6 with a 3.72 ERA this season, although he is 0-5 with a 6.23 ERA in seven starts in Chicago. He is 0-2 with a 5.9 ERA in June, and he has given up at least one home run in every one of his June starts including three home runs each of his last two outings. Reynaldo Lopez is 4-7 with a 6.12 ERA, although he has a 4.63 ERA in his last four starts. In two games against Detroit this season, he has thrown 12 innings only giving up two earned runs. The White Sox are 8-9 when Lopez starts but the Tigers are 6-11 when Boyd starts, take the value in the White Sox at home.
57-34 IN LAST 91 MLB ML PICKS | +1606
11-0 IN LAST 11 DET ML PICKS | +1100
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Miller locks
4:05 pm est mlb
chicago cubs vs. Pittsburgh pirates
pick: Pittsburgh pirates (+118)
risk: 11 units
4:07 pm est mlb
minnesota twins vs. Oakland athletics
pick: Minnesota twins (-132)
risk: 11 units
7:07 pm est mlb
boston red sox vs. Toronto blue jays
pick: Toronto blue jays (+100)
risk: 11 units
7:20 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. Atlanta braves
pick: Atlanta braves (-157)
risk: 11 units
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Kevin Rogers
MLB - Boston Red Sox
The Blue Jays knocked off the Red Sox last night, 6-3 as Toronto seeks the series win over Boston tonight. Marcus Stroman has handled the Red Sox lineup this season in two starts by allowing one run in two victories, including a win at Fenway Park in their last matchup. Hector Velasquez makes his first start since May for Boston as the Red Sox have won nine consecutive road series finales. I'll take Boston here as a short favorite.
MLB - Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves and Phillies have split the first two meetings in this series at SunTrust Park as the two NL East rivals wrap up their set tonight. Mike Soroka has been dynamic for the Braves this season at 9-1, but faces the Phillies for the first time this season. Zach Eflin pitched well in his last start at Miami, but the bullpen let him down in a 9-6 loss. Eflin has put together solid numbers in spite of a 7-7 record as he worth a look here as a road 'dog.
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Tim Wilkerson
New York Yankees
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Seabass : 400 cubs over , 400 twins , 300 rays , 400 angels , 700 * twins game under
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Sports-Junkies
07/04/19 $500 MLB Play of the Day - LA Angels +110
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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Game: (911) Cleveland Indians at (912) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 1:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Kansas City Royals +120
View Analysis
Game: (903) Milwaukee Brewers at (904) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -114
View Analysis
Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Minnesota Twins -140
View Analysis
Game: (919) Boston Red Sox at (920) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Toronto Blue Jays +100
View Analysis
Game: (907) Philadelphia Phillies at (908) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Atlanta Braves -160
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H&H Sports
(MLB) - 5* Atlanta Braves -155
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
TOR F5 +.5 -150 3u
MLB Season: 60-69-7 47% -46.05 units
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (913) Detroit Tigers at (914) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Detroit Tigers -119
View Analysis
Boyd v. Lopez
Most of today's write up is the same after both starters were held completely out of the doubleheader from yesterday and only added to my liking with the Tigers getting swept.
Game: (905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Chicago Cubs -113
View Analysis
Quintana v. Lyles
This play is on Vegas information...the 1st 5 line is heavier than the full game play on the Cubs. We are also playing this on a trend that is 43 of 55 in a spot with a team off a walk of loss to the opponent but favored.
Quintana was on the ropes early against the Reds, but they didn't break the dam after cracking it and then he settled down for a slaughter, with much help from an excellent defense behind him...I look for a similar aspect today where the Cubs bats will look to hit Lyles hard in just his second start back from the IL...after a mediocre (albeit "quality") first start back getting the loss in Milwaukee.
Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 4:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Minnesota Twins -145
View Analysis
Berrios v. Anderson
I'll play your game Vegas, you rogue!
Game: (921) Los Angeles Angels at (922) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Canning v. Lynn
The wind is blowing steadily inward this evening in Arlington and the 2 pitchers on the mound have been big pluses for each team's rotations. Canning for instance misses more bats on strikes that most any starter in the league at over 15% swing and miss rate, and only Snell and Castillo best Griffin Canning in overall contact rate of opposing hitters. He has a great K-BB rate at 20% near the tops in the league and specializes in the first couple times through the order...the 3rd time he faces an opposing lineup is the worst, thus we eliminate the full game play in this spot.
Lance Lynn speaks for himself at this point...the dude might win the Cy Young Award, leads the AL in WAR, has an excellent FIP that is below 3.00, and has a similar K-BB rate as Canning, meaning neither are likely to give out free passes (especially early) and clog the bases for hitters to have RISP at bat opportunities! I think this becomes an early pitcher's duel and barely allows a single run for either team through the first time around the batting orders...then we hold on for dear life with a high 6 in this same emotional, gut wrenching series for both these fatigued, emotiionally drained rosters!
Game: (909) San Diego Padres at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 4 2019 9:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Los Angeles Dodgers -0.5 (-155)
View Analysis
Lamet v. Ryu
Welcome back to the big leagues Dinelson Lamet! You haven't pitched since the 2017 season in the MLB and your reward is to go to Chavez Ravine to face the murderer's row of offense and the likely Cy Young favorite of the NL for 2019....congrats! At both levels of the minors so far this season he has been a solid strike out pitcher and limiting walks...but he also is fortunate to have a .219 BABIP against, and has allowed almost a HR per every 3rd fly ball he allows on the mound! Dodget stadiun ain't no Petco park either, and the Dodger lineup specializes in hitting home runs!
Ryu has not looked great of late, and there is no guarantee the bullpens don't mess around with things here...the stud will be on the mound for all 5 half innings of this bet, and a single HR from Bellinger or Muncy or Turner or Pederson et al might do it for the lead after just 5 innings! Also in a spot where a team walked off in the final game of a series to start a new divisional series against a team who they are giving 2 dollars to....7-1 record last 8!
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Dwayne Bryant
5% Atl/Phi OVER 10.5
4% OVER Boston (no play due to pitching change)
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