Pocono 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Let's go to Pocono!
Last years two races on the 2.5-mile tricky triangle produced a couple of juicy payouts for bettors at the sports books, including one which was an all-time NASCAR record in Las Vegas.
Thanks to a rain out out and a thick sheet of fog settling over the front stretch and turns, Chris Buescher in an underfunded car with fumes remaining in fuel tank was able to get the win paying at 1,000/1 odds. He's 500/1 this week.
In this race last season Kurt Busch opened at 20/1 odds and closed at 12/1 after showing well in the final practices. He had overcome all kinds of issues, but managed to win for the third time on the most unique track on the circuit.
“Just the fact that it’s different in the way that each of the straightaways has its different length, the corners have their banking," Kurt Busch said earlier this week about what he likes about likes about Pocono. "It’s not a typical oval in that you don't get to shift at an oval track. It blends a lot of road-racing techniques into an oval technique.”
Each of three Pocono corners get flatter along the way from 14 degrees in turn one down to six degrees in the tight turn three, which is where many try to be set up the best for and make passes.
“It’s weird, I’ve had winning cars there a few different times and turn two always feels the best when my car has a chance to go to victory lane," said Busch. "But, I think turn three, if you are able to pass cars and maneuver around them, you’ve got to get a good run off turn three to be ready to pass them in turn one. All of them are important. You can’t exclude one from another.”
When the cars comes ripping out of turn three they then head down the longest front stretch in NASCAR where horsepower is essential. Busch hasn't looked as good on the big horsepower tracks this season which is part of the reason he comes in at 40/1 odds.
Is he worth a few bucks this week?
Sure.
I'm wasting a small piece of my hard-earned money on him for a couple of reasons. First up is him winning this race last season; his crew knows what gear ratio and car balance works best and its fresh in their mind. Another reason is that Busch has NASCAR's top loop data rating (105.7) since they began recording the dozens of data points around the track in 2006.
The final piece of the puzzle for me taking Busch this week, besides being greedy and always trying to make a case for someone 30/1 odds or higher, is that he's using the same chassis this week that won at Pocono last year. He won't be my top wager this week, but I''m betting that he looks good in practice and his odds fall making my 40/1 look like huge value. And then we'll see what happens on race day.
However, I won't be betting Buescher even if he was 1,000/1. Lightning strikes only once a decade.
Jimmie Johnson tied Cale Yarborough with 83 career Cup wins last week at Dover and he'll try to pass him Sunday at Pocono, a place Johnson has won three times, the last time being in 2013. Among active drivers with at least eight starts at Pocono, no one has been better than Johnson's 10.5 average finish. He has 19 top-10 finishes in his 30 starts and is the active leader with 738 laps led.
The seven-time champ is leading the series with three wins over all these young guns booming with horsepower each week. He's an incredible franchise among all sports. I'm amazed by him each year and he actually seems to be getting better with age; definitely wiser.
So far this season, Johnson has shown he has lots of power, but you could argue that Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson have more of it despite less wins. Truex has won eight stages and has 18 playoff points stacked away. Johnson hasn't won any stage yet this season, but his three wins give him 15 playoff points. I think those points during the playoffs are going to mean more than I imagined.
I'm going to look for the regulars to do their thing again and I'm looking for Denny Hamlin to take another step in his improving car. He's finished eighth or better in the past two races and he's got a series-high four Pocono wins. He swept the Pocono season in 2006 as a rookie. Who does that? His last win there was in 2010. He ranks second behind Kurt Busch in NASCAR's loop data ratings (105.6).
Brad Keselowski will be my top pick basically because he's due to win. It's not a smart theory to follow, but Keselowski just feels right. He was second in the fall Pocono race last season, third in this race last year and second in the fall of 2015. Yes, he's finished second in three of the past six Pocono races and his only win there happened in 2011.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #2 Brad Keselowski (9/1)
2) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1)
4) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
5) #41 Kurt Busch (40/1)
Pocono Raceway Data
Season Race #: 14 of 36 (06-11-17)
Track Size: 2.5-miles
Banking/Turn 1: 14 degrees
Banking/Turn 2: 8 degrees
Banking/Turn 3: 6 degrees
Frontstretch Length: 3,740 feet
Backstretch Length: 3,055 feet
Shortstretch Length: 1,780 feet
Race Length: 160 laps / 400 miles
Stage 1 and 2 Length: 50 Laps (each)
Final Stage: 60 Laps
Top 10 Driver Ratings at Pocono
Kurt Busch 105.7
Denny Hamlin 105.6
Jimmie Johnson 104.8
Chase Elliott 102.7
Kyle Larson 95.6
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 93.9
Kevin Harvick 93.6
Joey Logano 93.2
Brad Keselowski 93.1
Ryan Newman 92.5
Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races (24 total) among active drivers at Pocono Raceway.
Qualifying/Race Data
2016 pole winner:
Brad Keselowski, Ford
181.726 mph, 49.525 secs, 06-04-16
2016 race winner:
Kurt Busch, Ford
125.490 mph, (03:11:15), 06-06-16
Track qualifying record:
Kyle Larson, Chevrolet
183.438 mph, 49.610 secs, 08-03-14
Track race record:
Jeff Gordon, Chevrolet
145.384 mph, (03:26:21), 06-12-11
Pocono - Driver Tale of the Tape
Ryan Blaney 30/1 (No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford Fusion)
· One top 10
· Average finish of 10.500, second-best
· Average Running Position of 14.255, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.3, 13th-best
· 5 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 162.584, 13th-fastest
· 210 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5), seventh-most
· 64 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Kurt Busch 40/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Three wins, 13 top fives, 18 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.565, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.787, second-best
· Driver Rating of 105.7, series-best
· 360 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.718, third-fastest
· 3095 Laps in the Top 15 (76.0), fourth-most
· 890 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1 (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Two wins, 11 top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.565, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.690, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.9, sixth-best
· 112 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.311, seventh-fastest
· 2646 Laps in the Top 15 (64.7), eighth-most
· 823 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Chase Elliott 10/1 (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 18.500, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 9.991, series-best
· Driver Rating of 102.7, fourth-best
· 22 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 162.792, 12th-fastest
· 252 Laps in the Top 15 (84.6), series-most
· 54 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Denny Hamlin 12/1 (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Four wins, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 12.136, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.859, third-best
· Driver Rating of 105.6, second-best
· 448 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.777, second-fastest
· 3012 Laps in the Top 15 (78.7), second-most
· 817 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Kevin Harvick 7/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Eight top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 11.208, third-best
· Average Running Position of 13.807, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 93.6, seventh-best
· 162 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.646, fourth-fastest
· 2718 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3), ninth-most
· 920 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Jimmie Johnson 6/1 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Three wins, 11 top fives, 19 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 11.250, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 10.937, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 104.8, third-best
· 285 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.789, series-fastest
· 3169 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9), fifth-most
· 964 Quality Passes, second-most
Kasey Kahne 100/1 (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Two wins, five top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 18.833, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.315, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.6, 12th-best
· 311 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.572, fifth-fastest
· 2603 Laps in the Top 15 (61.5), 10th-most
· 923 Quality Passes, third-most
Matt Kenseth 12/1 (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· One win, four top fives, 13 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.042, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.518, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.9, 11th-best
· 77 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.162, eighth-fastest
· 2586 Laps in the Top 15 (61.1), 11th-most
· 874 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Brad Keselowski 6/1 (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· One win, six top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.286, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.093, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 93.1, ninth-best
· 125 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.023, 11th-fastest
· 1292 Laps in the Top 15 (55.7), 13th-most
· 434 Quality Passes, 10th-most
Kyle Larson 6/1 (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)
· One top five, three top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.833, series-best
· Average Running Position of 11.790, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 95.6, fifth-best
· 5 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.039, 10th-fastest
· 724 Laps in the Top 15 (77.2), third-most
· 227 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Joey Logano 12/1 (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· One win, four top fives, six top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.563, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 13.007, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 93.2, eighth-best
· 99 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.326, sixth-fastest
· 1632 Laps in the Top 15 (60.0), 12th-most
· 569 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Ryan Newman 100/1 (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)
· One win, nine top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.333, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 12.017, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 92.5, 10th-best
· 37 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 163.152, ninth-fastest
· 3059 Laps in the Top 15 (72.3), sixth-most
· 990 Quality Passes, series-most
Pocono 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com
Jimmie Johnson will be looking to stay hot when the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Pennsylvania this weekend. Johnson came away with the victory at last week’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism, and he also happens to be a two-time Pocono 400 winner. Denny Hamlin is the only other active driver with more than one victory in this race. Both guys will be hoping to win their third, which would put them alone in second for most wins ever in this race. Jeff Gordon is the driver with the most ever wins here, as he won the Pocono 400 four times in his career. Hendrick Motorsports has been the best team in this race since it began in 1982. The team has won 11 times, but a lot of that is obviously thanks to both Gordon and Johnson. The most successful manufacturer, meanwhile, is Chevrolet, which has seen its drivers win 18 times in this race. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best value plays for this one:
Jimmie Johnson (13-to-2) - It’s pretty hard to come to grips with the fact that Johnson is not the favorite to win this race. As previously mentioned, Johnson has won this race twice in his career and also happens to be the hottest driver entering this one. Johnson won the AAA 400 Drive for Autism last week, and that was his third victory on the season. With 13-to-2 odds, it’s hard to pass up on a guy with the championship pedigree of Johnson. Putting a few units on him could be an excellent move for Sunday.
Kurt Busch (7-to-1) - Busch doesn’t have the same success on this track that both Johnson and Hamlin have, but he did win this race just one year ago. He didn’t necessarily tear it up with his time (3:11:15), but it’s still a victory. That’s going to give him a ton of confidence when he gets out there on Sunday, and he is receiving some pretty favorable 7-to-1 odds. Busch also happens to be coming off of a lousy performance, so he will be eager to turn things around here. Don’t be afraid to back him.
Denny Hamlin (15-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Denny Hamlin has won the Pocono 400 twice in his career. Despite the success on this track, Hamlin can still be had at 15-to-1 odds this weekend. Those are pretty significant and a win could drastically change the outcome of one’s week. It’s not like Hamlin has been awful this season either. He finished in eighth at last week’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism, which came right after he finished in fifth at the Coca-Cola 600. He’s worth a shot for a unit or so.
Austin Dillon (80-to-1) - Austin Dillon is driving as well as anybody right now, yet he is still getting 80-to-1 odds for Sunday’s race. Those could end up paying out huge, and it’s insane that Vegas is willing to let that happen. Dillon won the Coca-Cola 600 two weeks ago, and he came in 13th at last week’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. It would not be surprising to see him win his second race of his career, so don’t be afraid to put a half-unit or so on him.
Pocono Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Axalta presents the Pocono 400 at Pocono Raceway.
Who's HOT at Pocono
• Defending race winner Kurt Busch posted a 5.5 average finish in the two races last season.
• Brad Keselowski is the only driver that has finished in the top five in the last three races.
• Martin Truex Jr., who leads all drivers with eight stage wins this season, won this event in 2015 and has combined to lead 119 laps in his last four starts.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr., who spent time in the simulator this week, has two wins and a 7.4 average finish in his last nine starts.
• Kyle Larson led a combined 45 laps and posted an 8.5 average finish in both races last season.
• Kevin Harvick has finished ninth or better in four of his last five starts, including two runner-up finishes.
• Matt Kenseth has three top 10s, including one win, in his last four starts.
• In the last five races, Joey Logano has finished in the top five three times and has led the most laps (182).
Keep an Eye On at Pocono
• Ryan Newman (12.8 ), Clint Bowyer (13.2) and Jamie McMurray (13.2) each rank in the top 10 in average finish among drivers that have competed in all 10 races since Pocono was repaved.
• Denny Hamlin (10.5), Ryan Blaney (10.5), Kasey Kahne (10.5) and Chris Buescher (13.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in both races last season using the same tire combination that will be utilized again this weekend.
• Kyle Busch has finished in the top five in three of the last four races this season and has led 189 laps in that span.
• Jimmie Johnson, who leads the season in wins, has one win and a 13.7 average finish in the last 10 races at Pocono.
• Rookie Daniel Suarez has the fourth-best average finish in the last three races and has scored stage points in two of those races. Rookie Erik Jones finished second last year in the Xfinity race at Pocono.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Robbie Mays: Martin Truex Jr.
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Busch
John Singler: Clint Bowyer
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Pocono
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top five in his last two starts at Pocono. He swept both races in 2014 and has a 7.4 average finish in his nine starts since the track was repaved. Earnhardt spent time in the simulator this past week to prepare for Pocono.
Brad Keselowski leads all drivers that have competed in all 10 races since the repave at Pocono with a 9.3 average finish. Keselowski, who is looking to snap a streak of two consecutive bad finishes this season, is the only driver that has finished in the top five in the last three races at Pocono. This season, Keselowski ranks fourth in stage points earned.
Kyle Larson has posted an 8.8 average finish in six starts at Pocono. He led 37 laps last August and has combined to lead 50 laps in his last three starts. Larson posted an 8.5 average finish in both races last season that utilized the same combination of left- and right-side tires teams will run again this weekend. This season, Larson ranks second in stage points earned.
Ryan Blaney finished 10th and 11th, respectively, in his two starts at Pocono last season.
Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts at Pocono, including two runner-up finishes. His 63 laps led in the last five races ranks fourth among all drivers and his 12.9 average finish since the repave in 2012 ranks third among all drivers that have raced in all 10 events. This weekend, Harvick will debut a new chassis (No. 1041) in the Axalta presents the Pocono 400.
Denny Hamlin is a four-time winner at Pocono but has not gone to Victory Lane since the track was repaved in 2012. He's finished in the top 10 six times and has led 30 laps since the repave. Hamlin posted a 10.5 average finish in both races last season that utilized the same combination of left- and right-side tires teams will run again this weekend.
Chris Buescher at Pocono last August after staying out on track during pit stops and holding the lead until weather shortened the race. The win lowered his average finish to 13.0 in two starts at the track.
Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 four times since Pocono was repaved with the last coming in this event in 2015. McMurray has the best average finish (7.0) in the last five races this season dating back to Richmond.
Kurt Busch is the defending June Pocono winner. The win marked his third at the track and first since the repave in 2012. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014, Busch has scored the one win and three additional top 10s. He posted a 5.5 average finish in both races last season that utilized the same combination of left- and right-side tires teams will run again this weekend.
Joey Logano has finished in the top 10 five times in his eight Pocono starts with Team Penske. Logano, who is looking to turn around a string of bad finishes in the last four races this season, leads all drivers with 182 laps led in the last five Pocono races. Logano won the first race after Pocono repaved the track in 2012 when he was driving for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Matt Kenseth has finished seventh or better in three of his last four Pocono starts, including a win in the 2015 August race. Kenseth's only other top 10 since Pocono was repaved came in this event in 2012 when he drove for Roush Fenway Racing. He posted a 12.0 average finish in both races last season that utilized the same combination of left- and right-side tires teams will run again this weekend.
Clint Bowyer is tied for the fourth best average finish (13.2) among all drivers that have competed in every race since Pocono was repaved. This weekend he will make his first track start with Stewart-Haas Racing and has finished in the top 15 in 11 of the last 12 races this season.
Kasey Kahne finished sixth in this event last year for his fourth top 10 in the 10 races since Pocono was repaved. Kahne won the 2013 August race at Pocono, but has only led two laps at the track since that victory. He posted a 10.5 average finish in both races last season that utilized the same combination of left- and right-side tires teams will run again this weekend. This season, Kahne's only top 10 at a non-restrictor plate track came in the second race at Atlanta.
Chase Elliott led a race-high 51 laps in this event last year en route to a fourth-place finish. Elliott finished 33rd in his second start after contact caused front-nose damage to his car. Elliott finished fifth last weekend at Dover for his first top 10 since Bristol in April.
Ryan Newman has the second-best average finish (12.8 ) among all drivers that have competed in all 10 races since Pocono was repaved. Newman finished 12th in both races last season with the same combination of left- and right-side tires teams will run again this weekend.