Michigan 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
After 14 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races, I can say with a joyful happiness that I have absolutely loved the way this season is going. Between more competitive cars in the mix, the stages making all portions of the race important and then amazing storylines being built weekly that daisy-chains into each race, we've got some compelling television happening an its easy to follow like a primetime soap opera.
I can't say that it's been my most profitable betting year so far and part of that is because it's so competitive. But I don't mind because I'm still enjoying the races.
For instance, I love the fact that Ryan Newman broke a slump by winning at Phoenix. I also like the superstars like Jimmie Johnson getting his three wins. Most of all, I like seeing first-time winners. We've had three in the past five races -- Ricky Stenhouse Jr at Talladega, Austin Dillon at Charlotte and Ryan Blaney last week at Pocono.
Joe Gibbs Racing still doesn't have a win, nor does Kevin Harvick who is in a Ford for the first time in his career.
All those storylines tie into Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. What's accentuated even more here is the manufacturer battle since Motown is right over the Irish Hills where this 2-mile D-Shaped oval rests. All the executives from Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota are on hand for their own little battle and the brands.
And Yes, Toyota is an American brand with the Camry made in Georgetown, KY where $1.3 billion was just reinvested by the company. However, thy newcomers are way down the list on the manufacturer winners board that has been updated twice a year since the former Penske track debuted in 1969. Ford leads all with 35 wins, including one by Joey Logano in this race last season. Chevrolet has 24 wins, including Kyle Larson's first career win in the fall last season. Toyota has five wins.
Let's take a look at each of the manufacturers chances to win Sunday's race.
CHEVROLET: Even though Jimmie Johnson is a seven-time champion which the Chevy executives regularly brag about, the best guy in a bow-tie this week is expected to be Kyle Larson has has won the last two races on 2-mile layouts. Penske also built California Speedway and Larson grabbed his only win of the season there in March. He deserves to be the lone favorite here because he obviously loves this type of track with the wide sweeping turns and lots of room.
The funny thing about Larson winning at Michigan and California is the appearance of a correlation hasn't been the case with Johnson, who has six wins on his home track in Fontana but only one victory at Michigan (2014). That's 30 starts and only one win for Johnson. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has traditionally liked this track over his career with two wins, but after his emotional meltdown on camera last week at Pocono I'm rethinking my position on him winning any race this season. However, his teammate Chase Elliott is another story. He finished second in both Michigan races last season. Chevrolet has six of the 14 wins this season.
TOYOTA: All is going well for Martin Truex Jr. in a Toyota developed by Joe Gibbs Racing. He's had the most consistent horsepower this season and should give Larson his biggest test. Truex has two wins this season, and has the most series points (584) and most playoff points (18). He's had five top-five finishes in 22 starts. The crazy part is that those two wins this season by Truex are the only wins for Toyota. Joe Gibbs Racing's main four drivers have yet to take a checkered flag. They're expecting to get their new package dialed in by the time the playoffs start, but there are signs of being much better lately, especially Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth.
Busch's lone Michigan win came in 2011, but he hasn't had a top-10 there in his last seven starts. In five of those seven starts he's finished 31st of worse. It's been a rough stretch for him there and much of the blame he places on the resurfacing of the asphalt in 2012.
“Regardless of new pavement or not, it’s wide-open racing, and you can run from top to bottom more and more every race there as the groove widens out," Kyle Busch said earlier this week. "The biggest thing used to be to find grip there. But with the new surface, there is a ton of grip now. Before, you had grip for maybe five laps, and then you’d just be out to lunch. But now, the tire wear is all out the window and the racetrack is very fast. And the wide racetrack is good. That’s what makes Michigan so exciting and so fun. That’s the biggest deal about it.”
It's kind of funny because this Michigan pavement has really gotten into Busch's head. I've forgotten that it's been 10 races since the repave, which should be more than enough time for a great driver like Busch to acclimate.
Kenseth is the last Toyota driver to win at Michigan. He did it in the fall of 2015 giving him three wins in 35 starts. His 10.3 average finish is tops among all active drivers with at least three starts. Denny Hamlin is also a two-time winner at Michigan.
FORD: These guys have had a rebirth this season with Jack Roush getting a win, Stewart Haas Racing being competitive; winning the Daytona 500 and Penske Racing getting three wins out of Michigan native Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano while also providing the same equipment for the Wood Brothers famed No. 21 that went to the winners circle last week at Pocono with Ryan Blaney getting his first career win. All this and Kevin Harvick still doesn't have a win yet.
Harvick's only Michigan win came in 2010 while he drove an RCR Chevy, but his current Michigan run has been incredible with five runner-ups in his last eight starts. Last season he was fifth in both races. His teammate, Kurt Busch, has three Michigan wins with the last coming in the spring of 2015. Another SHR Ford to keep tabs on is Clint Bowyer who raced his tail off at Fontana to finish third.
Keselowski has been so close to wining at his home track. It's one of the top items on his career bucket list to check off. His best finish was runner-up in 2012. He's finished ninth or better in his last six starts, including fourth and third last season. Logano has been on a similarly great Michigan run with a top-10 in eight straight races, which also includes two wins. His current form is a bit puzzling, though. Both these guys have excelled in the 10 races since the repave.
If Blaney's speed on the longest straightaway in NASCAR at Pocono was good enough to win there then it's only going to help here. With the win and the team feeling confident, this really is a car as good as the two Penske cars.
Happy Father's Day to all the Dad's out there. Have your boys grab you a cold one and watch the Michigan race together.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
3) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (8/1)
Michigan Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
Who's HOT at Michigan
• Kyle Larson posted a 2.0 average finish in both races last season, including a win in the August race.
• Brad Keselowski has finished ninth or better in his last six starts and leads all drivers that have competed all races in that span with a 5.5 average finish.
• Kevin Harvick has finished in the top five in seven of the last eight races, including five runner-up finishes.
• Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last eight races.
• Chase Elliott combined to lead 66 laps and finished second in both races last year.
• Matt Kesneth has one win, 157 laps led and an 8.0 average finish in his last four starts.
Keep an Eye On at Michigan
• Martin Truex Jr, who finished third in both Michigan races in 2015, led 73 laps and finished third at the 2-mile Auto Club Speedway in March.
• Ryan Blaney and Jamie McMurray have posted respective average finishes of 6.5 and 7.0 in their last two starts at 2-mile speedways.
• Kyle Busch has combined to lead 289 laps and post a 7.0 average finish in the last five races this season. He's also won the last two poles in 2017.
• Denny Hamlin, who has posted a 2.8 average start in the last five races at 2-mile speedways, is a two-time winner at Michigan and has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five starts there.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 six times, including a win in this event in 2012, in his nine starts since Michigan was repaved. Earnhardt is seeking just his third top 10 of the season.
• Paul Menard (11.3), Ryan Newman (13.4), Clint Bowyer (15.6) and Kasey Kahne (15.9) each have a top-10 average finish among all drivers that have races in all 10 races since Michigan was repaved.
• Rookies Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez have posted respective average finishes of 8.3 and 10.7 in the last three races this season. Suarez also captured his first career XFINITY Series win at Michigan last year.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Kevin Harvick
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Larson
John Singler: Kevin Harvick
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Michigan
Chase Elliott combined to lead 66 laps and finished second in both races last year at Michigan. He finished 10th at Auto Club in March for his fourth straight top 10 at 2-mile speedways.
Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last eight races at Michigan. He has two wins in that span including this event last year when he led 138 laps. Logano finished fifth at Auto Club in March for his ninth straight top 10 at 2-mile speedways.
Brad Keselowski has finished ninth or better in his last six starts at Michigan and leads all drivers that have competed all races in that span with a 5.5 average finish. He posted a 3.5 average finish and combined to lead 24 laps in both races last season. Keselowski has finished in the top five in his last three starts at 2-mile speedways, including a runner-up finish at Auto Club Speedway in March after receiving damage to his No. 2 Ford early in the race. Keselowski ranks fifth in stage points earned this season.
Kevin Harvick has finished in the top five in seven of the last eight races at Michigan, including five runner-up finishes. Harvick has finished in the top five in seven of his last 10 starts at 2-mile speedways. He battled back from multiple issues, including a cut tire, to finish 13 at Auto Club in March. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 429) that he led 292 laps with at Atlanta. Harvick ranks fourth in stage points earned this season.
Jamie McMurray has finished ninth or better in three of his last four starts at Michigan and has failed to lead a lap in the last five. McMurray finished sixth at Auto Club in March for his fourth straight top 10 at 2-mile speedways.
Paul Menard finished 18th in both races last year to snap a streak of seven top 15s, including three straight fourth-place finishes with the last coming in this event in 2015. Menard's last top 10 at a 2-mile speedway came in the August race in 2015.
Denny Hamlin won this event in 2010 and 2011. Eighty-one percent of his laps led at Michigan came in his first win. In the last five events, Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in three of them, including a ninth-place run last August. Hamlin has posted a stellar 2.8 average start in the last five races at 2-mile speedways.
Ryan Newman scored his last of eight top 10s at Michigan in the 2015 August race. He's started in the top 10 in the last four races at 2-mile speedways.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished in the top 10 in six of his last nine starts at Michigan, including a win in this event in 2012. His last top 10 at a 2-mile speedway came in the 2015 August race.
Matt Kenseth finished in the top five in both Michigan races in 2015, including a win in the August race. The win marked his last top 10 at a 2-mile speedway. He started sixth and finished 36th at Auto Club in March after a late-race accident while running fifth.
Austin Dillon is tied for the sixth-best average finish (9.3) in the last three races at Michigan.
Kasey Kahne has posted a 14.6 average finish in his last five starts at Michigan with his best finish (13th) in that span coming in this event last year.
Kurt Busch has posted a 14.5 average finish in his six Michigan starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. He won this event in 2015, which was shortened by rain. This weekend, Busch will return in the same car (chassis No. 993) that he finished 10th with at Texas.
Martin Truex Jr. posted a 16.0 average finish in the two Michigan races last season. He finished third in both events in 2015 for his only top 10s in six track starts with Furniture Row Racing. Truex led 73 laps and finished fourth at Auto Club in March. This season, Truex leads all drivers with 185 stage points.
Kyle Larson posted a 2.0 average finish in both races last season at Michigan, including a win in the August race. Larson led a race-high 110 laps en route to the win at Auto Club in March. Larson ranks second in stage points earned this season.
FireKeepers Casino 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series will be in Michigan this weekend, as the top drivers in the world will be competing in the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday. Last week, the drivers battled in the Pocono 400. Ryan Blaney is the guy that came away with the victory, which was pretty monumental. That was Blaney’s first career victory, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can build on that race. The most recent winner of this race is, however, Joey Logano. Logano won last year’s FireKeepers Casino 400 by finishing with a time of 2:58:47. It was his first ever win in this event, but it’s not like any other active driver has dominated this race in their careers. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, and Kurt Busch have each won this race twice, but nobody in this race has won more than that. That makes Cale Yarborough’s six career victories in this event even more impressive, as it’s not a record that can be broken anytime soon. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at some of the best values for Sunday:
Kyle Larson (9-to-2) - Kyle Larson has finished inside the top 10 at two of the past three FireKeepers Casino 400s, and last year’s finish was actually a third. Larson knows how to get things done in Michigan, and he should be able to break through for his first win here very soon. It also helps that Larson just might be the hottest driver in NASCAR coming into this one. He has six top-five finishes this season, and also happens to be coming off of a seventh place finish a week ago. He’s worth taking a shot on at 9-to-2.
Joey Logano (10-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Joey Logano was the winner of the FireKeepers Casino 400 one year ago. That will give him a ton of confidence when he gets out on the track on Sunday, and it’s pretty surprising to see a driver like him with 10-to-1 odds. You won’t get that opportunity very often, so it’s definitely worth jumping on here. Logano also happens to be on a five-race streak of not finishing inside the top-20. While that might not sound very good, he should drive with a serious sense of urgency this weekend.
Kurt Busch (25-to-1) - Kurt Busch is getting 25-to-1 odds, and that is pretty insane. As previously mentioned, Busch is one of only three drivers in this race that has won this event twice in his career. He knows what it takes to win in Michigan, but he also happens to be driving well entering Sunday. Busch finished in fourth at last week’s Pocono 400, and that was his second top-10 finish in his past three races. He has also finished inside the top-10 in five of the past eight races. Do not hesitate to back him here.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (45-to-1) - The fact that Dale Earnhardt Jr. is getting 45-to-1 odds anywhere is pretty shocking. This is one of the best drivers of all-time, and it’s not like he hasn’t had any success in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Earnhardt Jr. has won this race twice in his career, which is more than just about anybody he’ll be competing with on Sunday. It’ll also be hard to find anybody more motivated than him. Earnhardt Jr. is retiring after the season, and he definitely wants to earn one more victory before he hangs it up. This represents a good chance for him to do just that.
Michigan - Driver Tale of the Tape
Ryan Blaney 25/1 (No. 21 Wood Brother Racing Ford Fusion)
· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 17.250, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.452, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.6, 13th-best
· 7 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.167, 13th-fastest
· 432 Laps in the Top 15 (58.5), 12th-most
· 102 Quality Passes, 12th-most
Kurt Busch 25/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· Three wins, five top fives, 11 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 19.500, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.819, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 89.8, ninth-best
· 186 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.211, 12th-fastest
· 2875 Laps in the Top 15 (61.5), ninth-most
· 778 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Kyle Busch 8/1 (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· One win, four top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 20.417, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.502, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 85.7, 12th-best
· 155 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.552, 10th-fastest
· 2751 Laps in the Top 15 (58.8 ), 11th-most
· 774 Quality Passes, eighth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr 80/1 (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Two wins, eight top fives, 14 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 13.217, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.019, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.0, fifth-best
· 205 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.850, fifth-fastest
· 2977 Laps in the Top 15 (66.5), sixth-most
· 933 Quality Passes, second-most
Chase Elliott 7/1 (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· Two top fives, two top 10s
· Average finish of 2.000, series-best
· Average Running Position of 4.300, series-best
· Driver Rating of 125.1, series-best
· 68 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 180.730, series-fastest
· 391 Laps in the Top 15 (97.8 ), series-most
· 59 Quality Passes, 13th-most
Denny Hamlin 25/1 (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Two wins, six top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 15.182, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.940, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.4, 10th-best
· 110 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.471, 11th-fastest
· 2697 Laps in the Top 15 (63.1), eighth-most
· 816 Quality Passes, fifth-most
Kevin Harvick 6/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)
· One win, ten top fives, 15 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.292, third-best
· Average Running Position of 13.230, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 94.0, sixth-best
· 213 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.684, seventh-fastest
· 2779 Laps in the Top 15 (59.4), 10th-most
· 776 Quality Passes, seventh-most
Jimmie Johnson 7/1 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One win, five top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.042, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.116, third-best
· Driver Rating of 100.0, third-best
· 449 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 180.222, second-fastest
· 3299 Laps in the Top 15 (70.5), third-most
· 869 Quality Passes, third-most
Kasey Kahne 80/1 (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)
· One win, eight top fives, ten top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 16.625, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.397, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 88.2, 11th-best
· 187 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.571, ninth-fastest
· 2613 Laps in the Top 15 (55.9), 13th-most
· 846 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Matt Kenseth 15/1 (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)
· Three wins, 14 top fives, 20 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 11.042, second-best
· Average Running Position of 11.220, second-best
· Driver Rating of 102.2, second-best
· 255 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.958, third-fastest
· 3599 Laps in the Top 15 (77.0), second-most
· 990 Quality Passes, series-most
Brad Keselowski 6/1 (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· Five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 12.333, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.632, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.3, eighth-best
· 80 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.645, eighth-fastest
· 2033 Laps in the Top 15 (69.1), fourth-most
· 550 Quality Passes, ninth-most
Kyle Larson 9/2 (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)
· One win, two top fives, three top 10s
· Average finish of 14.167, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 13.683, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.0, seventh-best
· 60 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.857, fourth-fastest
· 775 Laps in the Top 15 (68.1), fifth-most
· 223 Quality Passes, 11th-most
Joey Logano 12/1 (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)
· Two wins, four top fives, 11 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 12.625, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.633, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 97.0, fourth-best
· 141 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 179.788, sixth-fastest
· 2017 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2), seventh-most
· 505 Quality Passes, 10th-most