Kobalt 400 Betting News and Notes

Kobalt 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

I may be a little biased, but after going to several NASCAR races across the nation I can't help but feel Las Vegas is the ultimate destination across the circuit. Sure, it's just another 1.5-mile cookie cutter, but the amenities that the city has to offer make it an easy No. 1 in my book.

Despite gambling offered across the city, colleges and universities think so too as four conference basketball tournaments are being played in town this week. Forget that the players can't participate in some of 21 and over activities, the conferences want the parents and alumni to show up for tickets sales, and they do.

NASCAR and Monster Energy also think it's a cool place too which is why an announcement is expected this week that Las Vegas will finally be getting a much deserved second Cup date next season. It's likely to be in the Chase and possibly, I hope, the season finale. Monster Energy wants more bang for the buck and the show Las Vegas could put on for the Championship race is unmatched.

The way I see it is I only have so many dates a year I can take off and most of the time my girl wants to go with me, except for my NASCAR weekends. Sometimes that's a good thing -- time away can be good, and it's the same story with my friends who meet me at tracks. But when March rolls around with Vegas, their wives always make the trip. That's the allure of Vegas. It always passes the wife test.

For bettors, it's also the most fun race to visit because of all the action offered around town. Las Vegas kicks off NASCAR's three-race West Coast swing and it will be the most wagered race of the season, and the difference between second-place isn't even close. The action wagered in the months leading up to the season opening Daytona 500 two weeks ago will be more than quadrupled this week for Sunday's Kobalt 400.

Because of all the action with over 100,000 visitors in town for the race, the sports books amp up their wagering menu in a similar fashion as they do for the Super Bowl. Odds to win the race are the most popular bets, but you'll be able to bet anything that's in a race box score.

And I really do mean ANYTHING.

How about lap leaders, different drivers to lead a lap, cautions, finish position by several drivers, average speed or winners of the first two stages? Whatever you can think of, you'll be able to find around town at one of the many sports books. At a few books that offer US Fantasy Sports pari-mutuel wagering, you can even bet the drivers like horses with win-place-show, exactas and daily-doubles.

Before you go to the bet window and simply take your favorite drivers -- the sports books love that type of blind loyalty, let's try to figure out how Sunday's race might play out. We'll get a final read on who the drivers to beat are during Saturday's final practices, but we've already got a big piece of data to go off of and that's breaking down last week's Atlanta race.

While the layout and surface of Las Vegas' sister track at Atlanta is vastly different, both are high-banked 1.5-mile tracks and require similar set-ups. Drivers that did well at Atlanta last week should be just as good this week. We got a glimpse of how the new low downforce package would run last season at Kentucky and Michigan and it was amazing to see drivers that did well then also look outstanding at Atlanta.

It's not a coincidence that last years Kentucky winner, Brad Keselowski, won Sunday at Atlanta and that Sunday's runner-up, Kyle Larson, won last year at Michigan with Keselowski finishing third. Kevin Harvick would lead the most laps at Kentucky, but finish ninth -- just like he did Sunday at Atlanta -- and would finish fifth at Michigan. Chase Eliott would finish third at Michigan and ended up fifth at Atlanta. They all tie in together and they all have the new downforce package figured out the best meaning those are the drivers you should start with in any handicapping equation.

Jimmie Johnson holds the Las Vegas track record with four wins, the last coming in 2010, but the seven-time Cup champ didn't look very competitive during happy hour at Atlanta and ended up finishing 19th on race day. Still, he's finished sixth or better in four of the past five Vegas races and is to be respected.

Harvick won at Las Vegas in 2015 and he emphatically answered any questions some may have had about how Stewart Haas Racing's transition from Chevrolet to Ford would go on its first crack on a 1.5-mile track, one week after teammate Kurt Busch gave the 'thumbs-up' with a restrictor-plate package win in the Daytona 500. Harvick looked just as good as ever leading a race-high 292 of 325 laps at Atlanta. In fact, he even had some of the same bad luck happen Sunday with a late speeding penalty that kept him from a sure win. He easily had the best car on the track, but it was the sixth straight time he's led the most laps in a race and didn't win.

Keselowski won at Las Vegas last year and also 2014. Joey Logano was runner-up last season to give Team Penske a 1-2 finish. Logano finished sixth at Atlanta last week and should be given serious consideration to grab his first win at Las Vegas where no one has a better average finish than him at 10.7 in seven starts. Johnson is second-best with a 10.9 average.

Matt Kenseth is a three-time Vegas winner, the last coming in 2013, and has a 12.9 average in 17 starts. He's tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for most the Vegas starts. Junior has never won in Vegas, but should be someone to consider as well due to looking very good in practice at Atlanta before a flat tire ruined his race day.

Martin Truex Jr. was runner-up at Vegas in 2015 and finished 11th last year which was one of the few races on 1.5-mile tracks that he didn't lead a lap. He led the series with 883 laps led on 1.5-mile tracks in 2016. He finished eighth at Atlanta last week and didn't lead a lap.

Only five drivers led a lap at Atlanta and there were only nine lead changes. There were six cautions, including the two after the first two stages, which I found surprising because it seemed like every car was slipping as they made turns with the shorter spoiler on the new package.

As for who I'm going with to win, I'm going to ride with Harvick to pick up the win in a race that is 100 miles shorter than last week -- he would have won at Atlanta if it was a 400-mile race. It will be a nice anniversary gift for wife Delana Harvick, who married each other in Las Vegas 16 years ago prior the Vegas NASCAR week.

I hope to celebrate with them and cash a ticket!

Top-5 Finish Prediction

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
3) #24 Chase Elliott (10/1)
4) #42 Kyle Larson (12/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)

Las Vegas Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Kobalt 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Who's HOT at Las Vegas

• Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski (defending event winner) are the only drivers with multiple wins in the 10 races on the current track configuration, with two each.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 4.0 average finish in his last two starts, including leading 142 laps en route to the win in 2015.
• Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in three of his four track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing, including a win in 2013.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last six races.
• Joey Logano has posted a 7.0 average finish and combined to lead 165 laps in his four track starts with Team Penske.
• Kyle Busch, the 2009 race winner, has posted a 6.3 average finish and combined to lead 117 laps in his last three starts (missed 2015 due to injury).

Who to Keep an Eye On at Las Vegas

• Kyle Larson finished second last week at Atlanta and has combined to lead 155 laps in his last three starts dating back to Homestead-Miami last year. He's also been passed for the lead in the final 10 laps in each of those races.
• Martin Truex Jr., who led a series-high 883 laps at 1.5-mile tracks last season, has posted a 6.5 average finish in his last two starts at Las Vegas.
• Kasey Kahne and Kurt Busch have each finished in the top 10 in both races in 2017. They both also finished in the top 10 at Las Vegas last season.
• Ryan Blaney finished sixth last season at Las Vegas for one of his four top 10s in 20 career starts at 1.5-mile tracks.
• Chase Elliott, Kenseth, Logano and Jamie McMurray each participated in the Goodyear tire test at Las Vegas in January.
• Along with last weekend's fifth-place finish, Elliott also finished second in the two Michigan races last season that used the base lower-downforce rules that led to this year's rule package.
• Ryan Newman, who ranks fifth in Stage 1 and 2 points earned in 2017, has posted a 7.7 average finish in his three Vegas starts with Richard Childress Racing.
• Paul Menard ranks fourth in average finish in the last five races at Las Vegas with his RCR teammate Austin Dillon finishing fifth last year. All three RCR drivers finished 25th or worse last weekend at Atlanta with battery issues taking Newman and Dillon out of contention.
• Denny Hamlin finished 38th last weekend at Atlanta due to a broken left-rear wheel hub, snapping a streak of two consecutive top 10s at 1.5-mile tracks. Hamlin finished fifth at Las Vegas in 2015 to lower his average finish to 12.0 in the last three races there.
• Trevor Bayne, who finished 12th at Atlanta last weekend, has the best place differential in the last five Las Vegas races, gaining a combined 61 positions.
• Clint Bowyer, who will be making his 400th start, finished 11th last weekend Atlanta - his best finish at a 1.5-mile track since the fall of 2015. He was running in the top five at Atlanta with 85 to go, but had to battle back after contact with another car.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Chase Elliott
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Kevin Harvick
Tyler Burnett: Brad Keselowski
John Singler: Martin Truex Jr.

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Las Vegas

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last six races at Las Vegas. He finished eighth last season - but did not lead a lap - to give him an average finish of 6.0 in two track starts with crew chief Greg Ives. Last weekend, Earnhardt finished 30th after a pit road speeding penalty and a number of unscheduled pit stops. His last top-10 finish at a 1.5-mile track came at Texas last spring - second.

Joey Logano has yet to win at Las Vegas but has combined to lead 165 laps in his last three starts there. He led 74 laps and finished second last year for his third consecutive top 10. Logano, who hasn’t started worse than third in the last three Vegas races, participated in the Goodyear Tire test in January. Logano finished sixth last weekend at Atlanta for his fourth consecutive top 10 at a 1.5-mile track dating back to last season.

Brad Keselowski is coming off his second win at Las Vegas. He's is one of only two drivers that have finished in the top 10 in the last four races, but has the best average finish (3.0) in that span. Keselowski has 10 career wins at 1.5-mile tracks, including last weekend's race at Atlanta.

Paul Menard has finished in the top 15 in his six Las Vegas starts with Richard Childress Racing. His last of three top 10s came in 2014 - third. Menard, who finished 25th last weekend at Atlanta, has yet to score a top 10 at a 1.5-mile track since Homestead-Miami in 2014.

Martin Truex Jr. has posted a 9.0 average finish in three Las Vegas starts with Furniture Row Racing, including a second-place finish in 2015. Truex did finish in the top 10 in two previous starts with Michael Waltrip Racing. Truex finished eighth last weekend at Atlanta for his seventh top 10 at a 1.5-mile track since the start of the 2016 season. He also led a series-high 883 laps at 1.5-mile tracks last year.

Kyle Busch has posted a 6.3 average finish and has combined to lead 117 laps in the last three races at Las Vegas. Busch, who scored his only Cup win at Vegas in 2009, finished 16th last weekend at Atlanta, snapping a streak of five consecutive finishes of eighth or better at 1.5-mile tracks.

Kasey Kahne has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Kahne finished fourth last weekend at Atlanta for his fifth top 10 in the last six races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season. Kahne has finished in the top 10 in both races to start the 2017 season.

Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with four wins at Las Vegas. He finished third last season and has combined to lead 274 laps dating back to his last win at the track in 2010. Last weekend, Johnson finished 19th at Atlanta after a pair of pit road penalties, snapping a streak of five finishes of 12th (won twice) or better at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to last season.

Ryan Blaney finished sixth last season at Las Vegas for one of his four top 10s in 20 career starts at 1.5-mile tracks. Last weekend, Blaney finished 18th at Atlanta after tire and vibration issues early in the race.

Jamie McMurray has finished 16th or better in his last five Las Vegas starts, including an eighth-place run in 2012. Last weekend, McMurray had a solid outing at Atlanta, finishing 10th for his second consecutive top 10 at a 1.5-mile track. McMurray did participate in the Goodyear tire test at Las Vegas in January.

Ryan Newman has posted a 7.7 average finish in his three Las Vegas starts with Richard Childress Racing. Newman has started in the top three in his last two starts at a 1.5-mile track. Last weekend, Newman had a solid outing going at Atlanta until a battery issue took him out of contention.

Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 in his last two Las Vegas starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, including a win in 2015 after leading 142 laps. This season, Harvick leads the series in laps led with 342, including 292 last weekend at Atlanta. Harvick's ninth-place finish at Atlanta was his 10th top 10 at a 1.5-mile track dating back to the start of the 2016 season, which leads all drivers. This weekend, Harvick will race the same chassis (No. 1009) that he last finished sixth with at Texas Motor Speedway last fall. The car was outfitted with a new Ford body in the off-season.

Denny Hamlin has posted a 14.2 average finish in his last five Las Vegas starts. Hamlin led 10 laps and finished 19th last season in his first Vegas Cup start paired with crew chief Mike Wheeler. Hamlin finished 38th last weekend at Atlanta after a broken left-rear wheel hub sent him to the garage for repairs. The finished snapped a streak of consecutive ninth-place finishes at 1.5-mile tracks.

Austin Dillon finished fifth last season to lower his average finish to 15.5 in four starts at Las Vegas. Dillon, who finished 32nd last weekend at Atlanta after a battery issue, scored his last top 10 at a 1.5-mile track last fall at Kansas Speedway.

Matt Kenseth finished 37th at Las Vegas last season after an early accident. The finish snapped a streak of three consecutive top 10s that dates back to his third win at the track in 2013. Kenseth, who participated in the Goodyear tire test at Las Vegas in January, is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in the last nine races at 1.5-mile tracks dating back to Kansas in May last season.

Kobalt 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers will be competing in Las Vegas for the Kobalt 400 on Sunday. Last week, Brad Kesolowski won his first ever Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. That victory snapped a two-race winning streak for Jimmie Johnson, but the veteran now heads to head another track that he has dominated. Johnson has won the Kobalt 400 four times in his career, which gives him more than any other driver in the history of the sport. There will, however, be three other drivers that have won more than once on this 400.5-mile track. That list includes Matt Kenseth, Carl Edwards and the previously mentioned Kesolowski. Kenseth has won this race three times, and he’ll be hoping to tie Johnson’s record on Sunday. Edwards, meanwhile, has won twice, but it’d be hard to imagine him winning here twice moving forward. Roush Fenway Racing is the team with the most wins in this race, as they have won seven times in the Kobalt 400. Hendrick Motorsports has five wins, and Team Penske has won two of the past three (both were Keselowski). The manufacturer that has enjoyed the most success is, however, Ford. A driver has won in a Ford car nine times, and Chevy is the next best with seven wins. With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who could be winning this race on Sunday:

Brad Keselowski (6-to-1) - Keselowski is a tough guy to pass up this week, as he really checks all the boxes for what you’d want when looking to play this race. Keselowski has had success at the Kobalt 400 recently, winning two of the past three races here. His other finish was a seventh place finish in 2015, and he also came in third here in 2013. Keselowski has not only had the success here, but he is also coming off of a victory at the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 last week. There will not be a more confident driver on the track next week, and he’s worth a shot at 6-to-1.

Jimmie Johnson (15-to-2) - Johnson has won the Kobalt 400 four times in his career, but he has not won here since 2010. Still, he has showed that he is still very effective on this course and is worth taking a shot on at 15-to-2. Johnson finished second here in 2012, and he was also third just a year ago. It’s also worth noting that Johnson can badly use a victory on Sunday. He finished in 34th at the Daytona 500 and followed that performance up with a 19th place finish at the QuikTrip 500. It’s still early in the season, but Johnson knows the importance of getting going soon.

Denny Hamlin (20-to-1) - Denny Hamlin has never won the Kobalt 400, but he has placed well in Las Vegas and should not be getting 20-to-1 odds. Hamlin has finished inside the top-five in this race on two occasions, and one of those was just two years ago. He also has three other top-10 finishes in this race. That might not seem like anything too special, but he clearly can be effective on this course and a win should not be ruled out for him. He also is in a similar boat as Johnson, as he could really use a nice finish after a rough start to the year.

Ryan Newman (50-to-1) - Newman is yet another driver that has not won the Kobalt 400 but has some really good results in the race overall. Newman has finished inside the top-10 of this race eight times, and four of those occasions were top-five finishes. He came in third here as recently as 2015, and somebody that was that close to winning should not be getting 50-to-1 odds. Even throwing a little something on him could pay off huge, and much crazier things have happened than him winning on Sunday.