Goody's 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
And now we're down to the Elite 8.
NASCAR's version of the playoffs has been whittled down the field of 16 down to just eight drivers after six races and we can call the Round of 8 that starts Sunday at Martinsville Speedway the semifinals of sorts. The eight eligible drivers to win the Sprint Cup will have three races to impress the most before the championship field of four drivers is set for an all-or-nothing season finale No. 20 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The best way to advance for the eight drivers is to simply win one of the next three races, or else accumulate the most points. If there are three different Chase drivers to win each of the races, only one driver will advance on points. Two of the heavyweight contenders to win it all, Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski, both had engine failures at Talladega last week and have been eliminated.
Let's take a look at the eight Sprint Cup contenders, their updated Championship odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and how they might fare this week at Martinsville and then at Texas and Phoenix the following two weeks.
Joey Logano 6/1: He should have nightmares recurring from last season when his championship hopes were dashed immediately at Martinsville when Matt Kenseth repaid a debt and wrecked him while leading. Logano had won three straight races and looked like the favorite to win it all up until that point. His only win between the three tracks came at Texas. I don't like him to advance.
Jimmie Johnson 4/1: No driver has more Chase wins than the six-time champ. This round also suits his likes well: eight wins at Martinsville, six at Texas and four at Phoenix. Look for his best chance at winning to happen at Texas just because the last race on a high-banked 1.5-mile track was Charlotte (Oct. 9) where he led 155 laps and won. I've got him advancing.
Kevin Harvick 5/2: You have to make him the top favorite to advance just because he's won eight times at Phoenix, including six of the last eight there. He's never won at Texas and has a 2011 win at Martinsville. It would be a surprise if he wasn't racing for the title at Homestead.
Matt Kenseth 7/1: Martinsville has never been his strongest track (0 wins), but he was runner-up in 2013, sixth in both 2014 races and fourth last spring. He's got the luxury of having great Gibbs set-ups there now, like Hamlin and Kyle. At Texas, he's one of the elite with two wins and a 9.5 average finish in 27 starts. He's also won at Phoenix, a place where I think he'll be battling teammate Carl Edwards for a chance to advance. My best is guess is that he won't advance.
Carl Edwards 7/1: He's never won at Martinsville in 24 starts, but he does have three Texas wins and two Phoenix wins. In the March Phoenix race he led 65 laps, but was runner-up to Harvick. I believe his ultimate fate will come down to Phoenix and possibly needing a win to advance.
Denny Hamlin 8/1: The Virginian is a five-time winner at Martinsville, he's won twice at Texas and also has a Phoenix win to his credit. He squeaked into this round with a third-place at Talladega, but with Martinsville being his best track (9.5 avg.) he has a great shot to advance right out of the gate with a win. I like that scenario to happen Sunday.
Kurt Busch 18/1: Only two drivers have a better average finish than his 11.7 this season, and its that type of consistency that advanced him to the Round of 8 despite not being in a car not capable of winning any of the last three. The 2004 champ has won at least once on all three of upcoming tracks. Think of Ryan Newman's incredible run to the championship game in 2014 when he didn't win a race all season and pointed his way through the gauntlet.
“If we can go to Martinsville and win that bad boy, that changes the whole Chase complexion," Busch said. "That’s what happened last year when Jeff Gordon won there. That gave him his shot at the championship. We’re doing our job as a team. We’ve had some luck on our side, and we’ve had good speed in our racecars.”
My bet would be that the older Busch brother doesn't make it.
Kyle Busch 6/1: All he did was lead 352 of the 500 laps in April for his first career win at Martinsville. He's had 10 top-five finishes in 22 starts there over his career. Last years champ also won the April 9 race at Texas, his second there, and has 10 top-fives in 21 starts. He's also won at Phoenix. He's a good bet to advance to the next round just because of his real chances of winning at Martinsville and Texas again.
The big wild cards during this round are Jeff Gordon and Truex who could both steal a race and make things difficult for the eligible drivers. Gordon is back in Dale Earnhardt Jr's No. 88 this week and has nine wins at Martinville, including last fall for his final Cup win. Truex has led the most laps on 1.5-mile tracks this season and should be considered the favorite to win at Texas.
I'm going to look for Hamlin to handle business right out of the gate and punch himself into the Championship game/round. This is his turf, his favorite style of racing with a flat track and the dude is ready to become a champion.
Top-5 Martinsville Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (6/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #88 Jeff Gordon (15/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
5) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
Martinsville Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Goody’s Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
Who's HOT at Martinsville
• Kyle Busch dominated the spring race en route to the win and his second consecutive top five.
• Joey Logano has won the last three poles and has led the most laps combined (396) in the four races with the current tire combination.
• Jeff Gordon, who will be back in the No. 88 Chevrolet this weekend, leads all drivers with nine wins and 3,779 laps led.
• Five-time winner Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts, including a win in the 2015 spring race.
• Eight-time winner Jimmie Johnson has finished in the top 10 in five of the last eight races, including two wins.
• Kevin Harvick has finished eighth in two of his last three starts and has combined to lead 264 laps in that span.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Martinsville
• Brad Keselowski, who finished fifth in the spring at Martinsville, led 143 laps in this event last year before being involved in a late-race multi-car crash on lap 434 while running second. Kurt Busch was also swept up in the accident while running fourth.
• Matt Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts at Martinsville.
• Ryan Newman (11.8 ), Jamie McMurray (12.8 ), Carl Edwards (14.2) and Paul Menard (15.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the four races with the current tire combination.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished sixth in two of his last three Martinsville starts.
• Chase Elliott will also race in this weekend's Truck Series race at Martinsville. Both series are using the same tire set-up.
• Tony Stewart finished 10th last year in this event for his second top 10 in his last three Martinsville starts.
• AJ Allmendinger has posted a 6.5 average finish in his last two Martinsville starts, including a runner-up finish in the spring.
• Kyle Larson has two top-three finishes at short tracks this season, including a third-place finish in the spring at Martinsville.
• Kasey Kahne (12.4) and Austin Dillon (13.4) each rank in the top 10 in average finish at short tracks this season.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Denny Hamlin
Pete Pistone: Kevin Harvick
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Martinsville
Jeff Gordon won this event last year for his ninth win at Martinsville, which leads all active drivers. Gordon has competed in three of the four races with the current tire combination and has posted an average finish of 4.0 in that span. This weekend will mark Gordon's eighth start behind the wheel of the No. 88 Chevrolet.
Kyle Busch scored his first Martinsville win in 22 starts in the spring race after leading 352 laps. The victory was his second consecutive top five after missing the 2015 spring race due to injury. Busch has competed in three of the four races with the current tire combination and has posted an average finish of 5.7 in that span.
Joey Logano has won the last three poles at Martinsville and has posted an average finish of 17.0 average finish in the span. The average finish is hampered by a 37th-place finish last year in this event - led 207 laps - when he was taken out by Matt Kenseth. Logano's 435 laps led in the last five races leads all drivers.
Tony Stewart finished 10th in this event last year for his second top 10 in his last three Martinsville starts. Stewart, who has 17 top 10s in 33 overall starts, scored his last of three wins at the track in this event in 2011.
Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Martinsville. He's posted a 13.4 average finish in his five track starts with Richard Childress Racing. He won the 2012 spring race with Stewart-Haas Racing. Newman has the best average finish (11.8 ) among drivers that have competed in all four races with the current tire combination.
Matt Kenseth finished 38th last year in this event after he was parked for taking out Joey Logano. The finish snapped a streak of four consecutive finishes of sixth or better. In the spring, Kenseth led 45 laps and finished 15th.
Carl Edwards finished sixth in the spring for his first top 10 at Martinsville since the 2011 fall race. Edwards ranks fifth among drivers entered in this race and has competed in all four races with the current tire combination with a 14.2 average finish.
Denny Hamlin finished 39th in the spring after an accident. The finish snapped a streak of three consecutive top 10s, which includes a win in the 2015 spring race. Hamlin, who is a five-time winner at Martinsville, is tied for second in average finish (12.8 ) among drivers that have competed in all four races with the current tire combination.
Paul Menard is coming off his second top 10 in 18 starts at Martinsville. His average finish in the four races with the current tire combination is 15.0.
Kevin Harvick has combined to lead 264 in the last three Martinsville races and has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same car (chassis No. 864) that he led 72 laps with in the spring and finished 17th after he was shuffled back in the outside line on consecutive late-race restarts.
AJ Allmendinger finished second in the spring for his second top 10 in five Martinsville starts with JTG Daugherty Racing. A mechanical issue in the 2015 spring race hampered Allmendinger's average finish to 16.2 in the four races with the current tire combination.
Greg Biffle scored his last of five top 10s in 27 starts at Martinsville in this event in 2013. Biffle is coming off his best finish (12th) in the four races with the current tire combination where he has an average finish of 17.5 in that span.
David Ragan finished 21st in the spring in his first Martinsville start with BK Racing. His best finish, and third top 10 in 20 overall starts, came in last year's spring race when he drove the No. 18 for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Martin Truex Jr. finished 18th in the spring to snap a streak of two consecutive sixth-place finishes at Martinsville with Furniture Row Racing. An accident in this event in 2014 raised his average finish to 17.0 in the four races with the current tire combination.
Jimmie Johnson scored his last of eight wins at Martinsville in the 2013 spring race. He finished ninth in the spring for his first top 10 in the four races with the current tire combination. He's also failed to lead a lap in the last four races.
Austin Dillon finished fourth in the spring for his first top 10 in five Martinsville starts.
Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in two of the last three races at Martinsville, including a second-place finish in this event last year. McMurray is tied for second in average finish (12.8 ) among drivers that have competed in all four races with the current tire combination.
Ryan Blaney finished 19th in the spring in his first Sprint Cup start at Martinsville.
Clint Bowyer finished 25th in the spring in his first Martinsville start with HScott Motorsports. Bowyer posted 12 top 10s in his previous 20 starts at the track with Richard Childress Racing and Michael Waltrip Racing.
Aric Almirola captured his last of three top 10s in 15 Martinsville starts in the 2014 spring race. His overall average finish of 23.5 took a hit in the spring when an engine issue relegated him to a 40th-place finish.
Martinsville hosts Round of 8 on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Round of 8 begins with the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 in Ridgeway on Sunday. Joey Logano is the hottest driver on the planet coming into this one, as Logano is the guy that ended up emerging victorious at last week’s Hellmann’s 500. Prior to that victory, Logano had finished in third at the Hollywood Casino 400. Logano, however, is not the driver that’ll be most excited for this one. That would be Jimmie Johnson, who has five victories at the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 in his career (2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012). A win on Sunday would tie Johnson with Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip and Jeff Gordon for the most ever wins in this race. Look for him to be extremely motivated in this one. Gordon is, however, going to be racing on Sunday, so he can also take sole possession of the record before retiring. Considering the success of Gordon and Johnson, it’s easy to figure out that Hendrick Motorsports has been the most successful team in this race. They have had 15 winners here and four straight as well. As for the manufacturer that has had the most success in this race, Chevrolet takes that claim. The winner of this race has been behind the wheel of a Chevy 29 times and also in each of the past five races. With that out of the way, let’s take a look at some of Sunday’s best values:
Jimmie Johnson (5-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Jimmie Johnson has dominated the Goody’s Fast Relief 500 in his career. He has already won this event five times and he will be hungry to win his sixth on Sunday. Not only has Johnson been good in Martinsville, but he has also been driving pretty well recently as well. Despite finishing in 23rd in last week’s race, Johnson has still racked up four top-10 finishes in the past five races. That includes a victory in the Bank of America 500. With him in excellent form, don’t be afraid to put a few units on him in this one.
Denny Hamlin (5-to-1) - Denny Hamlin is coming off of a third place finish at the Hellmann’s 500 and he now gets to race in a place where he is very comfortable. Hamlin has been excellent at Martinsville in his career, as he has won five times at the track and twice in this event specifically. Hamlin might be getting the same odds as Johnson, but at a certain point you just have to trust a guy with a proven track record like Hamlin. Putting a few units on him along with Johnson is likely the move, as one of them really should win this race.
Joey Logano (8-to-1) - Logano is coming off of a victory and it’s just tough to advise picking against him at this point. He has been on a tear recently, as he won last week and finished in third the week before. Logano has never won the Goody’s Fast Relief 500, but he did finish in fifth in this race two years ago and has three other top-five finishes in his career at Martinsville overall. His first victory here is coming soon and Sunday is as good of an opportunity as any for him to get it. Backing him at 8-to-1 could end up really paying off nicely.
Jeff Gordon (12-to-1) - Jeff Gordon might not be a dark horse, but 12-to-1 odds are very good for a guy that is as legendary as he is. Gordon has been dominant at this track in his career, as he has won this race six times and that ties him for most ever in this event. Gordon is retiring and done for good after the season, so he will definitely be motivated to win on Sunday. He can take this record and make it his own and backing him at 12-to-1 to do that is not a bad idea.