AAA Texas 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Jimmie Johnson is on a roll and his seventh Sprint Cup title is within reach, which would tie him for the most all-time with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. He's now the 2/1 favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win it all.
Johnson became the first driver to punch his ticket in the Championship Round with a win at Martinsville on Sunday, the ninth of his career there, and only three spots remain with two races to go in the Round of 8 until the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 20 where the 2016 Sprint Cup championship will be crowned.
This week the series travels to Texas Motor Speedway for the second time this season for Sunday's AAA Texas 500. It will be the 10th of 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks this season and the first nine should lend plenty of data to find who is most likely to win this week.
Kyle Busch won the April 9 race at Texas for his second career win on the high-banked track. However it was sixth-place finisher Martin Truex Jr. who led the most laps (141). Seventh-place Carl Edwards would lead the second-most (124).
Truex was eliminated from the Chase two weeks ago after Talladega, but has led the most laps (1,743) on all tracks this season, including the group of 10 races on 1.5-mile tracks. He should be considered at least the co-favorite to win this week despite never winning at Texas in 22 career starts. He has wins on 1.5s at Charlotte and Chicago already this season and with a championship not in his future anymore, his main goal is to lead the season in wins. He's currently tied with Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Johnson and Busch with four wins each.
Edwards put himself in a rough spot by finishing 36th at Martinsville last week because now he has to win one of the next two races to advance. He's a three-time winner at Texas, but doesn't have any of his two wins this season on a 1.5. However, he was runner-up at Kansas three weeks at ago, a 1.5-mile track, but much flatter than Texas. He's finished 10th or better in his last four Texas starts and his last win there was with Roush Fenway Racing in 2008 when he swept the season.
The driver I think you really need to consider as the winner this week is Johnson, who has won five of the last eight races at Texas and has six overall. He's got the recent history there, but there are a couple of better reasons to support Johnson. First off, he has no pressure and he can race worry-free knowing no matter what happens he's still in the Championship Round.
The next reason is probably the best in favor of Johnson winning. It was at a Chicago test session a few weeks before the Chase began where master crew chief Chad Knaus found something to get the team more speed on the 1.5s -- a perfect balanced set-up for the No. 48. On the first 1.5-mile track after the test, Johnson led the most laps (118) at Chicago before a late race miscue relegated them to 12th. A few weeks later at Charlotte he would lead a race-high 155 laps and win, and then on the last 1.5 raced at he would finish fourth at Kansas.
What stands out most is the Charlotte win because Texas resembles its sister-track the most. So he's got the whole pre-race package showing he's most likely to win -- car, speed, motivation, past success,and recent success. However, there are plenty of other drivers hungrier for a win and knowing Johnson is in the Chase, they'd have no problem punting him out of the way late to secure their own future. But first they have to catch him.
Those desperate drivers racing for a championship still are Edwards, Kurt Busch, Harvick and Joey Logano. Harvick won the last race on a 1.5 at Kansas and Logano finished third. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth are both tied for second, five-points out, from Johnson and Kyle Busch is fourth, just four points ahead of fifth-place Logano. Kenseth and Hamlin are both two-time winners at Texas.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
2) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
3) #20 Matt Kenseth (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (8/1)
5) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/1)
Fort Worth hosts AAA Texas 500 on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
Jimmie Johnson will be looking for his fifth straight AAA Texas 500 victory in Sunday’s Round of 8 event. Johnson is currently in first place in the Sprint Cup Series standings, and there’s a good chance that he distances himself a bit more on Sunday. He is the king of Texas Motor Speedway, as he has won each of the past four AAA Texas 500’s and had another win here in 2007. The only other drivers with multiple victories in this race are Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart. Both will be racing on Sunday, but they do not have a chance to do any real damage in the Sprint Cup standings. With Stewart being the last driver to win here that isn’t named “Jimmie Johnson”, a driver behind the wheel of a Chevy has won each of the past five AAA Texas 500s. Hendrick Motorsports, meanwhile, is the best team in this race, but Johnson is still the only one of their drivers to win. With that being said, let’s now take a look at who might win this race this weekend:
Jimmie Johnson (5-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Johnson has been dominant at Texas Motor Speedway in his career. He is coming into this weekend on a four-race winning streak in this event alone, and he also happens to be driving very well recently. Johnson came away with the win at last week’s Goody’s Fast Relief 500 and that gave him two victories in his past four races. He also finished in fourth at the Hollywood Casino 400 three races ago. The fact that Johnson isn’t the favorite to win this one is a crime, and people should jump on him at the 5-to-1 odds he’s receiving. This might be the value of the year and is definitely worth a few units.
Joey Logano (10-to-1) - Logano has two top-five finishes in this race in his career, but he has never won. He does, however, have a victory at Texas Motor Speedway, as he emerged victorious at the Duck Commander 500 in 2014. That result shows that he is capable of winning this one on Sunday, and he is a good person to back at 10-to-1. He might not have as much success as Johnson on this track, but not many do. Logano, however, is still as talented a driver as there is in the Sprint Cup Series and is worth a shot this weekend.
Carl Edwards (12-to-1) - Edwards has been struggling lately, but he still represents a tremendous value heading into the weekend. Edwards might have failed to crack the top-25 in each of the past two races, but he is one of only three drivers to win this race more than once. He also has another win in Texas in his career, as he won the Duck Commander 500 in 2008 (It was known as the Samsung 500 at that time). With his track record at Texas Motor Speedway, Edwards is worth a unit or half-unit with the 12-to-1 odds he is getting.
Ryan Newman (80-to-1) - Newman has not won a Sprint Cup race since 2013, but he’s still worth a shot as a dark horse on Sunday. Newman thrives on 1.5-mile tracks like these and he is also a guy that always puts himself within striking distance of winning races. Newman has finished inside the top 20 in seven straight races and nine of the past 10. If a couple of things break right for him then he just might help you get an 80-to-1 pay day. He’s worth throwing a unit or half-unit on for that reason.
Texas Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com
To assist in making your fantasy racing picks, MRN.com's Pete Pistone helps steer you toward Sunday’s AAA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Who's HOT In Texas
Kyle Busch: He has an average finish of 3.0 in his last four starts and rides into "The Lone Star State" following his win at TMS back in April.
Jimmie Johnson: Last week’s Martinsville win put Johnson into the title race at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but he may not be done winning in the Round of 8. He’s won three of the last four races at TMS.
Martin Truex Jr.: Looked like he was on his way to a dominating win at Texas in April until bad luck reached out and bit him, as it’s done much of the year. But Truex does have three straight Texas top-10 finishes.
Matt Kenseth: Always strong at Texas and the Joe Gibbs Racing 1.5-mile program is one of the sport’s strongest. Kenseth needs a win to move on to Miami and it could come Sunday.
Joey Logano: He has a win, fourth and a third in three of the last five Texas races. Had a decent finish at Martinsville Speedway to start this round but looks to improve at Texas and avoid pressure next week at Phoenix International Raceway.
Who's NOT
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: He was good at Texas during his XFINITY Series career, but that success hasn’t carried over to the Cup side. The Roush Fenway Racing driver has an average finish of just over 20th in his last five starts.
Casey Mears: Faces an unknown future at Germain Racing in 2017 and a good finish to the year would help the cause. But Mears will need to step things up at Texas, where his best finish in the last five races is 18th.
Paul Menard: Had a top 10 in 2014, but it’s been frustration for him ever since. The last five races have added up to a 21.2 average finish for the Richard Childress Racing driver.
David Ragan: Another driver with 2017 plans still uncertain, Ragan’s last two years at Texas have resulted in a 27.2 average finish.
Chris Buescher: The Texas native would like nothing better than to turn in a strong performance at his home track. However, he has two career Cup starts at TMS with finishes of 30th and 28th.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Texas
Brad Keselowski: Out of the Chase but always tough at Texas. He has three top-five finishes in his last five TMS starts.
Tony Stewart: His final ride at Texas. Although in recent years, he hasn’t been great and missed the spring race with injury, perhaps Stewart-Haas Racing's 1.5-mile program can give Stewart a bounce his last time out.
Kevin Harvick: Trying to shake off the Martinsville doldrums and get back into the Chase. Harvick’s last five Texas outings include two second-place finishes and a third.
Denny Hamlin: The JGR driver has to put an end to the speeding penalties on pit road that have plagued him this year. Hamlin has been mediocre at Texas in recent races but needs something good Sunday to stay in the title picture.
Jamie McMurray: Another non-Chaser with pretty good Texas credentials. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Pete Pistone: Denny Hamlin
Jeff Wackerlin: Chase Elliott
John Singler: Kevin Harvick
Corey Vaissiere: Brad Keselowski