Alabama 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The beauty of NASCAR's playoff system will be on display Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, the most volatile track in the series. Eight drivers will advance to the next round and four drivers will be eliminated.
It was designed that way by NASCAR to create the most drama possible just because races on the 2.66-mile restrictor-plate track are major crap shoots. No one knows what's going to happen and the cars are going 200 mph, but they're driving on egg-shells being ever so cautious.
Everyone has a shot to win and everyone also has a chance at seeing their car wrapped up in a 15-car pile-up. No driver is out of harms way. So while we're all watching 40 cars shuffle around for the lead, we've also the drama of 10 drivers try to take six of the remaining spots in the Round of 8 which begins next week at Martinsville.
Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have already advanced by virtue of winning the first twoi races of this round. For those on the cusp of not advancing, Talladega is definitely not the track they wanted to see to decide their 2016 fate.
The problem with restrictor-plate racing is that every car is equal and up to 35 of the 40 drivers have a legitimate shot to win. Just glance over the odds-to-win sheet this week and you'll notice a huge change from what was listed last week for Kansas. You won't see giant odds of 200/1 on anyone because almost anyone can win. Last week at Kansas only 15 drivers could legitimately say they could win.
Things happen fast at Talladega and drivers are sitting ducks. All it takes is for one driver to wiggle in line while 40 cars are stacked three-wide and it turns into a massive pile-up. At Kansas, there's a strategy, but at Talladega it's a crap shoot and the main goal for 178 of the 188 laps is to simply avoid trouble. It's easier said then done, but for a couple of early season favorites who are outside looking in to the transfer spot this week, they have to figure a way to win.
Let's take a look at the four drivers on the chopping block:
Austin Dillon: He's actually tied with Joey Logano for the eighth and final Chase spot heading into this weekend, but he loses a tie-breaker because Logano has had the highest in finish among the two races in the Round of 12. He comes in having to feel pretty good about his chances since he had a career-best third-place finish at Talladega in May. If we include results from the other restrictor-plate track at Daytona, Dillon's 11.9 average finish in 11 races since 2014 is second-best in the series.
Denny Hamlin: He's currently 6-points behind the eighth-place transfer position, a situation similar to last season when he was involved in a late wreck and ended his chances of winning his first championship. The Beneficiary was Kyle Busch who made the eighth slot and went on to win his first title. What Hamlin has going for him is being one of the elite plate-racers in the series. His 11.7 average finish in 11 plate races since 2014 is tops and he's captured two wins, including this years Daytona 500. He won at Talladega in 2014.
Brad Keselowski: He's just 7-points out of the eighth-place transfer position and he's going to his best track. Talladega seems to fit his style fine. He won his first career race there in 2009 driving for an underfunded part-time team and won in 2012 when he went on to win his first and only championship. He then won this race in 2014 to transfer to the next round and won there in May. That's four Talladega wins in 15 starts. A Ford driver has won the last two at Talladega and five of the past eight.
Chase Elliott: He's almost in a win or nothing category sitting 12th in points, 25-points behind the eighth position. His daddy set the track record for speed at 212 mph in 1987 and he's got a little bit of those genes in him based on his first Cup start at Talladega in May where he finished fifth.
While throwing darts at the dart board attached with car numbers, like I do to pick winners for most Talladega races, I came up a scenario that both Hamlin and Keselowski would advance meaning that two drivers currently sitting pretty will have some poor luck while being involved in somebody's wreck. My darts selected Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr. as the most unluckiest this week.
As for winning the race, bring out the dart board again or roll the dice. However, we have seen the Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske cars look strong winning 10 of the past 11 plates races between Talladega and Daytona.
One long shot to take a long hard look at this week is Alex Bowman driving Dale Earnhardt Jr's No. 88, a car which has three plate wins over the last 11. Bowman has never won a race before and he has a 30th-place average in four Talladega starts, but that car will be strong. All he has to is keep the pedal on the floor, stay out of trouble and he should have a great day. He's someone to at least consider among the many.
Not Talladega wager is a bad bet until they wreck. be cautious yourself at the windows and leave the match-ups alone unless some crazy book posts +115 on any driver against. Paul Menard +115 vs Kyle Busch? Give me Menard, please. Thank you. And I even like Kyle to fare well this week. But that's just it. It's so random that 15 cents of value is huge.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #20 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (10/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (10/1)
5) #22 Joey Logano (12/1)
Chase Clinching Scenarios for Talladega
Note: Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick have already clinched a spot in the Round of 8. With only one race remaining in this round, a new winner would be a win by Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski or Chase Elliott. A win by any other driver would be considered a repeat winner for the clinching requirements (so, Johnson/Harvick, or a non-Chase driver, or a driver ahead of Logano in points).
Matt Kenseth (0 Wins, 3074 Points) - Would clinch on points with 13 Points (28th and no laps led, 29th and led at least one lap, 30th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 11 Points (30th and no laps led, 31st and led at least one lap, 32nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
Kyle Busch (0 Wins, 3072 Points) - Would clinch on points with 15 Points (26th and no laps led, 27th and led at least one lap, 28th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 14 Points (27th and no laps led, 28th and led at least one lap, 29th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
Carl Edwards (0 Wins, 3069 Points) - Would clinch on points with 18 Points (23rd and no laps led, 24th and led at least one lap, 25th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 16 Points (25th and no laps led, 26th and led at least one lap, 27th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
Kurt Busch (0 Wins, 3062 Points) - Would clinch on points with 25 Points (16th and no laps led, 17th and led at least one lap, 18th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 24 Points (17th and no laps led, 18th and led at least one lap, 19th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
Martin Truex Jr (0 Wins, 3058 Points) - Would clinch on points with 29 Points (12th and no laps led, 13th and led at least one lap, 14th and led most laps) and a new winner. If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 28 Points (13th and no laps led, 14th and led at least one lap, 15th and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins.
Joey Logano (0 Wins, 3045 Points) - If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 41 Points (2nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.
Austin Dillon (0 Wins, 3045 Points) - If there is a repeat winner, would clinch on points with 41 Points (2nd and led most laps). With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with a new winner and help.
Denny Hamlin (0 Wins, 3039 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.
Brad Keselowski (0 Wins, 3038 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.
Chase Elliott (0 Wins, 3020 Points) - With a win, would clinch a next round spot on wins. Could clinch on points with help.
Talladega Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Hellmann's 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.
Who's HOT at Talladega
• Brad Keselowski, a four-time winner, won the spring race and this event in 2014.
• Jimmie Johnson, a two-time winner, has led the most laps in the last five races among drivers entered in the race.
• Clint Bowyer leads all driver with four top 10s in the last five races.
• Joey Logano won this event last year for his second career restrictor-plate win.
• Matt Kenseth, winner of this event in 2012, leads all drivers entered in the race that have multiple starts with an 89.2 Driver Rating.
• Kurt Busch, Kevin Harvick (2010 spring winner) and Paul Menard each have finished in the top 10 in three of the last five races.
• Martin Truex Jr. has posted an 8.3 average finish in his last three starts, including two finishes of seventh or better.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Talladega
• Kyle Busch (2008 spring Talladega winner) has posted a 2.3 average finish in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
• Austin Dillon, who finished third in the spring at Talladega, has finished in the top 10 in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
• Denny Hamlin (2014 spring Talladega winner) won this year's Daytona 500 and has led 107 laps in the restrictor-plate races this season.
• Chase Elliott started from the pole and finished fifth in his first Talladega Sprint Cup start in May.
• Trevor Bayne (13.7), Ryan Blaney (14.0), Kyle Larson (14.0) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (14.3) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
• Carl Edwards scored his first of two consecutive fifth-place finishes at restrictor-plate tracks in this event last season, but accidents have taken him out of contention in the last two.
• Alex Bowman will be behind the wheel of the No. 88 Chevrolet this weekend.
• David Ragan and Jamie McMurray each have a win in the last seven Talladega races (2013).
• Greg Biffle is third in laps led (77) in the last five races at Talladega.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Chase Elliott
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Austin Dillon
John Singler: Chase Elliott
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Talladega
Chase Elliott started from the pole and finished fifth in his first Talladega Sprint Cup start in May. Elliott led 27 laps in the spring and his finish is his only top 10 at a restrictor-plate track this season after accidents took him out of contention in both Daytona races.
Clint Bowyer finished seventh in May at Talladega for his best finish, and one of three top 10s, with HScott Motorsports this season. This finish was his fifth top 10 in the last six races at Talladega. His last of two wins at Talladega came in this event in 2011 with Richard Childress Racing. Bowyer finished ninth at Daytona in July for his second consecutive top 10 at a restrictor-plate track.
Kevin Harvick has finished 15th in his last two Talladega starts. He finished in the top 10 in his previous three track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. Harvick's lone win at Talladega came in the 2010 spring race. This season, Harvick's only top 10 (fourth) at a restrictor-plate track came in the season-opening Daytona 500. This weekend, Harvick will debut a new car (chassis No. 1011) in the Hellmann's 500.
Brad Keselowski leads all drivers entered in the Hellmann's 500 with four wins at Talladega. Keselowski won in the spring after leading 46 laps and won the Chase Elimination race in 2014. His last two victories have lowered his average finish to 7.0 in the last four races at Talladega. This season, Keselowski leads all drivers with 162 laps led in the three restrictor-plate races.
Martin Truex Jr. has posted a 13.8 average finish in his five Talladega starts with Furniture Row Racing. His last of two top 10s with the team at the track came in this event last year - seventh. This season, Truex saw his best finish at a restrictor-plate track come in the season-opening Daytona 500 - second.
Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in his last two Talladega starts. Busch, who has recorded an average finish of 14.0 in his five track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, will return in the same car (chassis No. 965) that he last raced at Daytona in July. In that race Busch was in contention for the win, but was turned on the final lap and relegated to a 23rd-place finish. That finish snapped a streak of two consecutive top 10s at restrictor-plate tracks.
Ryan Newman has posted a 14.0 average finish in his five Talladega starts with Richard Childress Racing. His last of two top 10s at the track with the team came in the 2015 spring race - 10th.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. finished ninth last year in this event for his third top 10 in six starts at Talladega. Stenhouse finished fifth at Daytona in July for his first top 10 in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
Paul Menard finished sixth last year in this event for his fifth top 10 in 20 starts at Talladega. Four of Menard's top 10s have come in his last six starts. This season, Menard has yet to finish inside the top 15 in the three restrictor-plate races.
Austin Dillon finished third in May for his first top 10 in six starts at Talladega. Dillon is one of two drivers (Kyle Busch) this season that has finished in the top 10 in all three of the restrictor-plate races.
Kyle Busch finished second in May for his fifth top five in 22 starts at Talladega, which includes a win in the 2008 spring race. This season, Busch leads all drivers with a 2.3 average finish in the three restrictor-plate races. His 47 laps led ranks fourth in that span.
Cole Whitt has posted a 22.9 average finish in seven starts at Talladega. He's coming off his best finish in two restrictor-plate starts this season - 11th at Daytona.
Jimmie Johnson scored his last top 10 in the fall race at Talladega in 2010 - seventh. His last of two wins at the track came in the 2011 spring race. This season, Johnson has posted a 24.3 average finish in the three restrictor-plate races.
AJ Allmendinger has posted a 19.0 average finish in his five Talladega starts with JTG Daugherty Racing. His lone top 10 with the team came in the 2014 spring race - 10th. Allmendinger is coming off two consecutive top-15 finishes at restrictor-plate tracks.
Denny Hamlin has posted seven top 10s in 21 Talladega starts, including a win in the 2014 spring race. This season, Hamlin ranks second in laps led at restrictor-plate races. He also kicked of the season with a win at Daytona.
Ryan Blaney has finished in the top 10 in two of his last three Talladega starts. Last year in this event, and engine failure raised his average finish to 19.5 in four overall starts. Blaney finished ninth in May at Talladega to help give him an average finish of 14.0 in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
Landon Cassill finished 11th in May at Talladega to lower his average finish in 11 overall starts to 24.5. His Talladega finish is his only inside the top 10 in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
Joey Logano won this event last year for his first top 10 in his last 10 Talladega starts. Logano finished 25th in the spring race after an accident to mark his only finish outside the top 10 in the three restrictor-plate races this season.
Greg Biffle scored his last of six top 10s in 27 Talladega starts in the 2014 spring race - second. Biffle is coming off his first top 10 on a restrictor-plate race this season, finishing eighth at Daytona in July.
Sprint Cup Round of 12 wraps up on Sunday
By: Zach Cohen
StatFox.com
The Sprint Cup Series heads to Talladega Speedway for the final Round of 12 race on Sunday. Kevin Harvick was the guy that emerged victorious at last week’s Hollywood Casino 400, as he finished just before Carl Edwards with an average speed of 133.155 MPH. Joey Logano, however, is the guy that will be the top dog when the drivers get out on the track on Sunday. Logano won this race a year ago and will surely be confident in his ability to win it again. Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the winningest active driver in the Hellman’s 500. He won’t be racing on Sunday, though, as he continues to recover from a concussion he suffered early in the year. Jamie McMurray is another name that people should be aware of in this race, though. McMurray has won this race twice in his career, as he finished in first in 2009 and 2013. The team that has enjoyed the most success here is Richard Childress Racing, which has eight victories in this race. Chevrolet, meanwhile, is the top manufacturer, as the winner of this race has driven a Chevy 21 times. With that being said, let’s now take a look at some of the best plays to win on Sunday:
Brad Keselowski (8-to-1) - Keselowski is coming off of a miserable 38th-place finish at the Hollywood Casino 400, but he should be able to bounce back and come through with a big finish on Sunday. Prior to that poor outing, Keselowski had finished inside the top-10 in seven consecutive races. He is driving very well and knows that he could use a win in this one. It also happens to be a track where Keselowski has thrived in the past, as he was the winner here two years ago and came in fourth last year. Backing him at 8-to-1 would be a wise decision, as he should be in contention for the entirety of this race.
Joey Logano (10-to-1) - Logano is getting some very favorable 10-to-1 odds in this race and that represents tremendous value. Logano came in third place at least week’s race and has now finished inside the top-five at two of the past five events. He also happens to be the defending champion at this one and will clearly be looking to win a second straight on Sunday. There are not many more talented drivers out there than Logano, so taking him on Sunday is a wise choice.
Jamie McMurray (25-to-1) – As previously mentioned, Jamie McMurray has won the Hellmann’s 500 twice in his career and he has a good shot of making it three wins on Sunday. McMurray has had two poor finishes in the past three races, but he also has five top-10 finishes in the past 10 races. He could very much use a win on Sunday and that means he’ll race with a little desperation as well. Putting a few units on him would represent an opportunity to win big and he is the best of the bunch of people in this odds range.
Greg Biffle (40-to-1) - When looking for a dark horse to win this race, Biffle is a guy that stands out. Biffle has never won this race before, but there is a first time for everything and this looks like it just might be his race. In the first practice session for the Hellmann’s 500, Biffle drove 20 laps and finished with the fastest speed of all drivers. That bodes well for him coming into this one and shows that he could be worth a shot on Sunday. Even a half-unit would end up paying off big and he is worth that chance.