Geico 500 Betting News and Notes

Talladega - Driver Tale of the Tape

Ryan Blaney 15/1 (No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford Fusion)

· One top five, two top 10s
· Average finish of 17.800, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.077, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 83.5, ninth-best
· 9 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 194.300, series-fastest
· 556 Laps in the Top 15 (58.0), seventh-most
· 1253 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Kurt Busch 25/1 (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Seven top fives, 17 top 10s
· Average finish of 16.833, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.074, second-best
· Driver Rating of 88.8, third-best
· 59 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.439, 10th-fastest
· 2997 Laps in the Top 15 (65.6), second-most
· 6641 Quality Passes, series-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr 10/1 (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Six wins, 12 top fives, 16 top 10s
· Average finish of 18.957, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.407, third-best
· Driver Rating of 92.0, second-best
· 85 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.785, second-fastest
· 2698 Laps in the Top 15 (61.6), fourth-most
· 4893 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Chase Elliott 15/1 (No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, one top 10; one pole
· Average finish of 8.500, series-best
· Average Running Position of 9.125, series-best
· Driver Rating of 97.1, series-best
· 4 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.777, third-fastest
· 317 Laps in the Top 15 (83.4), series-most
· 545 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Denny Hamlin 7/1 (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, five top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 19.182, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.603, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 84.0, seventh-best
· 90 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.388, 11th-fastest
· 2049 Laps in the Top 15 (48.9), 13th-most
· 4485 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Kevin Harvick 15/1 (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· One win, six top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.375, second-best
· Average Running Position of 17.490, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 81.5, 10th-best
· 95 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 192.951, 13th-fastest
· 2254 Laps in the Top 15 (49.3), 11th-most
· 4621 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Jimmie Johnson 15/1 (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Two wins, seven top fives, 11 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 16.042, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.938, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.9, fifth-best
· 63 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.595, sixth-fastest
· 2687 Laps in the Top 15 (58.8 ), fifth-most
· 5206 Quality Passes, third-most

Matt Kenseth 15/1 (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· One win, six top fives, ten top 10s
· Average finish of 18.458, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 14.845, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 88.0, fourth-best
· 82 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.262, 12th-fastest
· 2836 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1), third-most
· 5499 Quality Passes, second-most

Brad Keselowski 7/1 (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Four wins, six top fives, nine top 10s
· Average finish of 15.375, third-best
· Average Running Position of 16.955, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 87.4, sixth-best
· 58 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.593, seventh-fastest
· 1630 Laps in the Top 15 (53.4), 10th-most
· 3502 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kyle Larson 15/1 (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two top 10s
· Average finish of 21.167, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 17.349, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.8, 11th-best
· 12 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.615, fifth-fastest
· 623 Laps in the Top 15 (54.4), ninth-most
· 1545 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Joey Logano 7/1 (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, four top fives, six top 10s
· Average finish of 18.688, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 16.243, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 83.8, eighth-best
· 61 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.657, fourth-fastest
· 1717 Laps in the Top 15 (56.3), eighth-most
· 3990 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Jamie McMurray 40/1 (No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· Two wins, seven top fives, eight top 10s
· Average finish of 20.292, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 18.873, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 80.4, 12th-best
· 77 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.446, ninth-fastest
· 2247 Laps in the Top 15 (49.2), 12th-most
· 4782 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Elliott Sadler 80/1 (No. 7 Tommy Baldwin Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, four top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 19.833, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.821, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 80.4, 13th-best
· 54 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 193.551, eighth-fastest
· 1328 Laps in the Top 15 (58.1), sixth-most
· 2552 Quality Passes, 10th-most

GEICO 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Talladega Superspeedway, you big, ugly, beast of a badass. You show no favorites whether a champion or an also-ran; your wrath is dished out equally to all class of drivers. You're such a beast that NASCAR had to find ways to slow the cars down. You're wide high-banks made them go too fast. Yes, Talladega Superspeedway, you're a big, beautiful, 2.66-miles of awesomeness. The stage is yours for the 10th race of the NASCAR Cup season, have a great show!

I'm not one of those fans that roots for crashes and big pile-ups, but I can say that the possibility of it happening at any moment in a spectacular fashion like only Talladega can provide has me at the edge of my seat in anticipation like no other race track. It's the most amazing high-speed traffic jam in automobile history with the drivers sometimes stacked up in four-wide formations. It's bumper-to-bumper at 200 miles per hour.

If one driver slips or makes the wrong move it can take out half the field in a chain reaction. It is in this randomness that forces me to change my weekly wagering patterns. I play more drivers to win and I rarely play any driver match-ups, unless getting obscene plus-money on a driver. Most of the cars are equal because of the restrictor-plates, but a few teams have proven to have a slight edge over the past three seasons and the package for these cars have been about the same for the past three seasons.

So between the random wrecks which can take away my driver bet at any moment, no big edge with the cars and practices and qualifying not meaning anything, these type of races are really just crap shoots. Your bet is kind of like one of those scratch-off lottery cards, but with better odds. Formula's used for rating the drivers are different for Talladega -- very vanilla based more on past history.

Because of the randomness, the books usually give a fair shake on the favorites while chopping off the long shot odds. Anything can happen with plates on.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has last week's winner Joey Logano as the 7/1 co-favorite to win along with Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin. Every other driver is 10/1 or higher beginning with six-time Talladega winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. who announced last week that 2017 would be his last Cup season.

Junior probably should be the favorite to win this week because he's got 10 restrictor-plate wins, because Hendrick Motorsports has a great plate program and also because of supply and demand.

In the good old days when Junior won four straight Talladega races from 2001-03, he would have his odds shaved down lower than he should be just because every sports book knew they would get loaded on Junior action. And then he'd go out and win and make it look easy.

For this week's race because of his popularity and retiring, he will be bet down as risk piles up. People will bet him at Talladega and if they don't win they'll have a nice souvenir from his farewell season. He's got two races remaining at Talladega and then it's over. It's the end of a long era, a love affair the Talladega fans had with Earnhardt Senior and Junior. Dale Jr. feels that love too from this sector of fans and I think he'll feed off it on Sunday.

He last won a race in the fall of 2015, a season he won three times, one of which came at Talladega. Last season he missed the final 18 races due to a concussion. This season, things have been tough on him with only one top-10 finish in his nine starts. That's not good at all and he's got to take a lot of the blame himself.

That leads to not having any fun, either, and it's important for drivers. Confidence is a huge aspect of drivers even though its usually the equipment that sets them apart. But I think Junior knows he's one of the best at seeing air in the draft. He understands it well and I believe he knows he's really only got three legitimate whacks at wins: the two races at Talladega and the Firecracker 400 at Daytona -- the three plate races left.

With a win he can coast into the playoffs with an automatic berth. But as of now he's sitting 24th in points and it would be a shame for him to miss the playoffs in his final season. I want Junior to do well. I want him to win a few races and I'd love to see him roll out on top as a champion like Peyton Manning and John Elway did.

When he eventually takes the lead its going to be a emotional roar that drowns out the car noise. And when he wins its going to be one heck of a Talladega party. I'm a believer in fantastic stories and moments in Junior's career because I've seen goofy, unworldly stuff, happen with this guy. I still can't explain all the wild happenings of the 2001 season after his father passed.

So I'll just tell you I'll be betting Junior to win in all of the plate races.

Something to think about in regards the Daytona 500 results which are the perfect example of plate randomness with Kurt Busch winning at 40/1 odds followed by Ryan Blaney, A.J. Allmendinger in third, Aric Almirola fourth and Paul Menard fifth. That might be one of the most upside-down looking top-five finishes we'll see this season, or until maybe Sunday at Talladega.

Bottom line is there really is no bad bet at Talladega until it loses. If I argued Aric Almirola or a Roush Fenway car could win, I wouldn't be wrong.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (10/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
3) #4 Kevin Harvick (15/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (7/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1)

Talladega Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway.

Who's HOT at Talladega

• Team Penske's Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano each have two wins in the last five races.
• Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer and Kevin Harvick each have finished in the top 10 in four of the last six races.
• Chase Elliott, the defending pole winner, has posted an 8.5 average finish in his two starts.
• Austin Dillon finished in the top 10 in both races last season.
• Six-time winner Dale Earnhardt Jr. has combined to lead 253 laps in his last 10 starts.
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in three of the last six races, including a win in this event in 2014.
• Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth, who each have a top five driver rating, rank in the top five in laps led in the last five races.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Talladega

• Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola and Trevor Bayne each have a top 10 average finish in the last five races at restrictor-plate races.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished 13th or better, including two top 10s, in three of the last four races at Talladega.
• Kyle Busch (2008 spring Talladega winner) has finished third or better in three of his last five starts at restrictor-plate tracks.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished in the top 10 in three of his last five Talladega starts.
• David Ragan and Jamie McMurray each have a win in the last eight Talladega races (2013).

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Clint Bowyer
Pete Pistone: Brad Keselowski
Robbie Mays: Chase Elliott
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Larson
John Singler: Chase Elliott

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Talladega

Kurt Busch has finished 12th or better in his last five starts at Talladega and has finished in the top 10 in the last three. Busch won this year's Daytona 500 for his first win and 20th top five on a restrictor-plate track.

Chase Elliott won the pole for this event last year and finished fifth after leading 27 laps. He finished 12th in the fall at Talladega to give him an average finish of 8.5 in his two Cup starts at the track. Elliott has a total of three poles and one top 10 in his five starts at restrictor-plate tracks. He led 39 laps in this year's Daytona 500 before running out of fuel at the end.

Kevin Harvick has finished ninth or better in four of his six Talladega starts with Stewart-Haas Racing. His lone win at the track came in this event in 2010 with Richard Childress Racing. This year, Harvick led 50 laps in the Daytona 500 in his first points paying race driving a Ford. Harvick has 28 top 10s, including three wins, in 64 starts at restrictor-plate tracks. This weekend, Harvick will return in the same chassis (No. 814) that he last finished eighth with at Talladega in this event in 2015.

Ryan Newman has only one finish outside the top 18 in six Talladega starts with Richard Childress Racing and it came in this event last year. Newman, who finished 14th in this year's Daytona 500, has 18 top 10s at restrictor-plate tracks, including a win in the 2008 Daytona 500.

Brad Keselowski has won four times at Talladega, including this event last season. He's combined to lead 136 laps last season in the two races, which leads all drivers. Keselowski, who won at Daytona last year in the July race, leads all drivers in wins (2) and laps led (254) in the last five restrictor-plate races.

Clint Bowyer is a two time winner at Talladega with his wins coming with Richard Childress Racing in the 2010 and 2011 fall races. Last year in this event while driving for HScott Motorsports, Bowyer scored his 12th top 10 in 22 overall starts. Bowyer started sixth in his first start with Stewart-Haas Racing in the Daytona 500, but got caught up in an accident.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has finished in the top 10 in four of his seven starts at Talladega. He finished fifth last fall at Talladega for his sixth top 10 in 17 starts at restrictor-plate tracks. He finished 31st in this year's Daytona 500 after being involved in an accident.

Joey Logano is coming off his second consecutive win in the fall race at Talladega. He finished 25th in this event last year after an accident, but has led 71 laps in the last three races, which ranks second among all drivers. Logano is tied with his teammate Brad Keselowski for the most wins (3) in the last 10 races at restrictor-plate tracks.

Austin Dillon is one of two drivers (Kurt Busch) that finished in the top 10 at Talladega in both races last season. He's also finished in the top 10 in five of his last seven starts at restrictor-plate tracks.

Paul Menard has finished in the top 10 in four of his last seven starts at Talladega. His only finishes outside the top 13 in that span were two DNFs. Menard finished fifth in this year's Daytona 500 for his ninth top 10 in 41 restrictor-plate starts.

Cole Whitt has yet to finish in the top 10 in seven starts at Talladega. His best finish came in this event in 2015 when he drove for Front Row Motorsports. This year Whitt finished 18th in the Daytona 500 behind the wheel of the No. 72 Ford for TriStar Motorsports.

Jimmie Johnson scored his last of two wins at Talladega in this event in 2011. His last finish - and 11th top 10 overall - came in this event in 2015 - second. Johnson, who has led 467 laps at Talladega, failed to lead a lap at the track last season.

Ryan Blaney has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts in the spring race at Talladega. He finished second in this year's Daytona 500 to lower his average finish to 9.0 in the last four restrictor-plate races.

Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in two of his last four starts at Talladega. He finished 13th in this year's Daytona 500 for his fourth finish of 13th or better in the last six restrictor-plate races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. scored his sixth Talladega win in this event in 2015. An accident in this event relegated him to a 40th-place finish. Earnhardt has combined to lead 223 laps in his last six starts at Talladega.

GEICO 500 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

The historic Talladega Superspeedway will be the host of Sunday’s GEICO 500 for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series. Last week, the drivers competed in the Toyota Owners 500, and Joey Logano came away with the victory in that race. Now they’re on to this one, where Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be stoked. Like his father, Earnhardt Jr. has been exciting to watch at Talladega. That shouldn’t change this weekend, when he just might be competing in his last ever GEICO 500. Another guy that will be excited to be out there for this one is Brad Keselowski. Like Earnhardt Jr., Keselowski has won this race three times in his career. He also happens to be the driver that won this thing just a year ago, so he’ll be very confident. As for the team that has had the most success here, that would be Hendrick Motorsports. A lot of that has to do with the driving of Jeff Gordon, who won this race a record four times. The manufacturer that has done the best is, however, Chevrolet. It has been the car used by 19 winners, which is eight more than the second best make (Ford). With that out of the way, let’s take a look at this race’s best value plays:

Brad Keselowski (8-to-1) - As previously mentioned, Brad Keselowski has won the GEICO 500 three times in his career. He was also the winner here a year ago and there is just no reason that he shouldn’t be in contention once again come Sunday. He knows this track well and it clearly brings out the best in him. Keselowski also happens to be driving well heading into this one anyway. He came in second at last week’s race, and that was his sixth top-five placing of the season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8-to-1) - Like Keselowski, Earnhardt Jr. has won this race three times in his career and is getting some favorable 8-to-1 odds. This is a track that he has really loved throughout his career, and he will definitely want to come away with a win on Sunday. This could be his last ever GEICO 500, as he is going to be retiring after the year. There is always a chance he ends up racing another time, but there is definitely no guarantee. For that reason, expect him to be extremely aggressive.

Joey Logano (9-to-1) - Logano has never won the GEICO 500, but that can easily change on Sunday. Logano has been on a tear lately, finishing inside the top-five in five straight races. He won last week’s Toyota Owners 500 and should be ready to compete once again on Sunday. Logano has finished outside the top-20 at five straight races in Talladega, but he is far too talented of a driver for those struggles to continue. He’s worth taking a shot on.

Austin Dillon (30-to-1) - There are no dark horse drivers that really stand out when looking at this race, but Dillon can certainly find his way to the front of the pack on Sunday. Dillon is a very talented driver and is coming off of a very good race in Talladega a year ago. Dillon finished in third in that one, and a minor improvement would mean that he could enter victory lane this weekend. He’s worth taking a shot on at 30-to-1.