Toyota Owners 400 Betting News and Notes

Toyota Owners 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Richmond International Raceway always provides great racing, but it'll have to really come strong this week to top what was witnessed Monday at Bristol with the most competitive race of the season and easily the best racing at Bristol I've seen since the track made changes to the layout in 2007.

More on the Richmond race in a minute, but first let's talk about Dale Earnhardt Jr. who announced Tuesday that he'll be retiring at the end of the season. The first thing I thought of was of him not living up to the huge expectations placed upon him from his large fan base, much of which he inherited after his father passed in during the 2001 Daytona 500. He had 26 wins over his career, but he never won a championship.

Junior is a huge part of NASCAR and its image. He's handled being the face of the sport with total class, and it is with that portion of responsibility to the sport that made me like him so much. It's a heavy burden. Jimmie Johnson may have seven championships, but it's Junior who most that don't follow the sport identify with.

I started to get the idea Junior was ready to call it quits last season when he missed 18 races due to a concussion. I was actually surprised he came back at all this season after getting married, and of course knowing all too well how dangerous the sport is that he participates in. If his heart isn't into to it and he's not having fun, then it's time to go.

So we've seen Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards all retire in the past two years and Junior leaving is another sign of NASCAR moving on to new generation. However, I have a sneaky suspicion that Edwards will come out of retirement to drive the No. 88 next year. But for now, my hopes are that Junior finishes the season strong, wins a few races -- hopefully at Daytona and Talladega -- and contends for the title.

Alright, let's talk about Richmond.

Last season, five of the top-seven finishers in the spring Phoenix race finished in the top-seven in the spring Richmond race. It's the type of trend often seen each season between the first two races at the similar flat tracks. And its the same type of trend to follow for Sunday's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond.

Although Phoenix has a 1-mile layout and Richmond's is a 3/4-mile, the set-up requirements are almost identical meaning that it will serve your handicapping process well to scour over the data from the March 19 Phoenix race where Ryan Newman used some late pit strategy to grab his first win since 2013. We can also use the same process in July at New Hampshire's flat 1-mile layout. If a driver does well on one, they'll likely do well on all three.

In 30 starts at Richmond, Newman has been very good with a 12.2 average finish, but his only win there came in 2003. He's someone to consider for fantasy value or maybe try $10 on a long shot wager at 60/1 odds, but I'm looking beyond the Phoenix winner and who actually dominated the race and that was Las Vegan Kyle Busch who led a race-high 114 laps finishing third.

With six laps to go, Busch was leading and cruising to victory when his chief rival Joey Logano wrecked and caused a caution. Busch chose pit under the yellow and get fresh tires, as did several others, but Newman chose to stay out and with fresh air in front of him, his tires held and no one could make the pass and Newman held on for the surprise win.

Other notables from the Phoenix race was Chase Elliott, who finished 12th and led 106 laps. Logano led 82 laps with all of them coming in the first third of the race where he was dominant. Kyle Larson finished second, Brad Keselowski fifth, Kevin Harvick sixth and Denny Hamlin was 10th.

After reviewing Phoenix it's time to look at recent Richmond history and right at the top as one of the best all-time at Richmond is Kyle Busch with a 6.9 average finish in 23 starts which includes 15 top-fives and four wins. No active driver has more Richmond wins than Busch. Last season after finishing fourth at Phoenix he was runner-up at Richmond leading 78 laps. His teammate, Carl Edwards, won which was kind of foretold by him finishing second at Phoenix. Edwards is now retired.

Denny Hamlin, a native Virginian, grabbed his third Richmond win in the September race and his 10.1 average-finish is second-best among active drivers. Harvick also has three wins and is third with a 10.4 average. Next is Larson at 11.3 in six starts. He was second to Hamlin last fall, but he's been the best overall driver this season.

Saturday's final practices will be the final part of the equation to finding the winner, but you should have a nice head start this week based on Phoenix and past Richmond history.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) #20 Joey Logano (8/1)
3) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
4) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)

NASCAR at Richmond: Key stats, sleepers, fantasy drivers to watch
By Joe Rodgers
Sportingnews.com

NASCAR heads to Richmond for its second short track in as many weeks as the sport comes to terms with the announcement its most popular driver, Dale Earnhardt Jr., is retiring at the end of the season.

Junior may be known for his restrictor-plate prowess but he's had success at Richmond (three wins) and Phoenix (three wins), two tracks which are very similar in terms of setup and banking. Earnhardt is one of multiple drivers who've had success at both tracks along with Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin.

The Toyota teammates own the two highest driver ratings at the 0.75-mile track since 2005 and have multiple wins there. It's no surprise they are among the favorites to win on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, Fox).

Key stats to know for the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond

The pole starting position is the most proficient starting position in the field, producing more winners than any other starting position at Richmond (24).

The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Richmond is 31st, by Clint Bowyer in the spring of 2008.

Just under 80 percent (78.5) of Cup races at Richmond have been won from a top-10 starting position.

Jimmie Johnson is the only active driver with consecutive wins at Richmond which could be bad news for last fall's winner Denny Hamlin, who has led the most laps (1,594) at the Virginia facility among active drivers.

Who are the sleepers to win the NASCAR race at Richmond?
Clint Bowyer wheeled his way to a runner-up finish Monday at Bristol — his best showing since placing second at Richmond in 2013. The Virginia track is one of Bowyer’s top layouts. In 22 starts, he owns two wins, four top fives and 12 top 10s.

Although Jamie McMurray leads the series among active drivers with the most Cup Series starts at Richmond without visiting victory lane at 28, he's been driving well there of late. Over the past seven races at Richmond, McMurray owns a 8.71 average finish.

Which drivers are best for fantasy NASCAR in Richmond?

Kyle Busch leads all active drivers in the Cup Series in average finishing position at Richmond with a 6.95 and is out pick to win on Sunday. The younger Busch brother owns the top average finish (7.0), driver rating (110.8 ), along with the second-best average running position (7.7) at Richmond among active drivers. He led 78 laps in last year’s spring race only to have teammate Carl Edwards dump him for the win off Turn 4.

Ryan Newman won last month's race in Phoenix and has had success on Richmond's similar layout. Newman has one win to go along with 16 top 10s and the fifth-best average finish among active drivers at Richmond in his career.

Looking to save salary when setting a driver lineup? Add Ty Dillon, who finished 15th at Phoenix and Bristol on Monday. He's never drove a Cup Series race at Richmond but he does have six top 10s in eight career Xfinity Series races there.

Also worth adding to save salary is Trevor Bayne, who is off to a hot start to the season and heads to his sixth-best track according to career average finish.

Richmond Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway.

Who's HOT at Richmond

• Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last six races dating back to his win in 2014.
• Kyle Busch leads all drivers in wins (4 - all in the spring race) and average finish (7.0).
• Denny Hamlin, winner of last year's September race, posted the best average finish in the two races in 2016, which used the same tire combination that will be used this weekend.
• Kurt Busch, winner of this event in 2015, has combined to lead 346 laps in the past two spring races run in the day.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 7.0 average finish in his six track starts with Stewart-Haas racing and finished fifth in both races last season.
• Jimmie Johnson, who is coming off two consecutive wins this season, has finished third in the last two spring races.
• Martin Truex Jr. finished in the top 10 in both races last season and led 193 laps last September.

Who to Keep an Eye On at Richmond

• Brad Keselowski, winner of the 2014 September race, has combined to lead 512 laps in the last six Richmond races.
• Matt Kenseth has finished seventh or better in three of the last four Richmond races, including a win in the 2015 September race.
• Along with Kurt Busch, Harvick, Johnson, Kenseth, Logano and Truex, Kasey Kahne has finished in the top 10 in the last two spring races run in the day.
• Kyle Larson, who has led 225 laps at short tracks this season, finished second last September at Richmond.
• Clint Bowyer, who owns two Richmond wins, has posted a 5.8 average finish in the last four races this season.
• Chase Elliott (5.0), Austin Dillon (9.0), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (9.5) and Ryan Newman (11.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the two short track races this season.
• Jamie McMurray has posted a 10.0 average finish in the last two spring Richmond races.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Kyle Busch
Pete Pistone: Joey Logano
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
Tyler Burnett: Joey Logano
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Richmond

Kevin Harvick has finished fifth or better four of the last five races at Richmond, including leading 63 laps from the pole in this event last year that was run in the day. He also finished second in this event in 2015, which was postponed to a day race. Harvick's last of three wins came in this event when he drove for Richard Childress Racing.

Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in all of the last six races at Richmond dating back to his win in this event in 2014. Last year he finished eighth in the spring race that was run during the day.

Kyle Busch leads all drivers with four wins at Richmond with the last coming in the 2010 spring race. He's scored two runner-up finishes in two of the last three races, including this event last year after leading 78 laps.

Jimmie Johnson has finished third in the last two spring races at Richmond, both run in the day. Last year he led 44 laps. Johnson's only finish outside the top 10 in the last five races came last September - 11th. His last of three wins at Richmond came in the 2008 September race, an event that was also run in the day, but with the COT car.

Brad Keselowski scored his lone win at Richmond with a dominating performance in the 2014 September race, leading 383 laps. Last year in the spring race, which was run in the day, Keselowski led six laps and finished 11th. Keselowski finished fourth last September for his sixth top 10 in 15 starts.

Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in the last two Richmond spring races that were run in the day. He dominated the 2015 race that was postponed to Sunday by leading 291 laps en route to his second win at the track. He posted a 9.0 average finish in the two races last season that will use this weekend's tire combination.

Jamie McMurray is coming off his seventh top 10 in 28 starts at Richmond. He's posted a 10.0 average finish in the last two spring races that were run in the day.

Kasey Kahne posted the second-best average finish last season in the two Richmond races that will use this weekend's tire combination. He's finished in the top five in the last two spring races, which were contested in the day.

Kyle Larson is coming off his first top 10 at Richmond, finishing second last September. Along with the standings, Larson leads the series in driver ratings and is second in laps led at short tracks this season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. has posted five top 10s and an average finish of 15.2 in 17 Richmond starts with Hendrick Motorsports. His last of three wins came in this event in 2006 with Dale Earnhardt Inc. This season, Earnhardt has had tough luck at short tracks with a 36.0 average finish in the two races.

Denny Hamlin is coming off his third win at Richmond after leading 189 laps. The win was part of a streak of three finishes of sixth or better. He led the series in average finish (3.5) in the two races at the track last season with the current tire combination.

Aric Almirola has posted a 16.9 average finish in 10 starts at Richmond. His last of three top 10s came in the 2015 September race - fourth.

Clint Bowyer finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight Richmond starts with Michael Waltrip Racing. This year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Bowyer has a 4.5 average finish in the two short-track races, including a second last weekend at Bristol.

Chase Elliott has recorded a 15.7 average finish in his three starts at Richmond. His best finish came last year in this event - 12th. This year, Elliott has posted a 5.0 average finish in the two short-track races.

Martin Truex Jr. posted the fifth-best average finish (6.0) last year in the two races at Richmond with the current tire combination. This year, Truex has led 158 laps in the two short-track races.

Toyota Owners 400 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond for the Toyota Owners 400 on Sunday. Jimmie Johnson will be the confident driver when these guys hit the track, as he won the Food City 500 last week. Clint Bowyer came in second in that race, and Kevin Harvick was the guy that finished third. Harvick won this race back in 2013, but he is far from the most successful active driver in this event. That would be Kyle Busch, who has four victories in this race in his career. Partly because of Busch, Joe Gibbs racing has seven victories in this race all time. That is not the most for any team, though. That distinction belongs to Petty Enterprises, which has eight wins here. As for the most successful manufacturer, that is Chevrolet. Chevy has been a driving force behind 21 victories in this race, and the last one came in 2015. With that out of the way, here is a look at some of the best values for this weekend:

Kyle Busch (5-to-1) - Kyle Busch has not yet won a race this season, but he has a very good chance of doing so on Sunday. Busch has been ridiculous at Richmond International Speedway in his career, as he won four straight Toyota Owners 400s from 2009 to 2012. And while Busch hasn’t won this race since 2012, he does have a third place finish in 2014 and a second place finish in 2016. He flat out knows how to get the job done in Richmond, and he is an excellent play at 5-to-1.

Kevin Harvick (8-to-1) - Kevin Harvick is another driver that has not yet won this season, but he could very well change that this weekend. Harvick is driving very well coming into this race, as he finished fourth in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 two races ago and third in the Food City 500 last week. Harvick also happens to have experience winning this race, as he was the winner at the Toyota Owners 400 back in 2013. That combination of recent success and track success makes him a good value at 8-to-1.

Kurt Busch (35-to-1) - To say this season has been rough on Kurt Busch would be an understatement, but he is still a good driver and is capable of turning things around fast. Busch has finished outside of the top 20 in five of the past six races, but he does have some recent success at Richmond International Speedway. Busch won this race back in 2015, and he has also finished inside the top 10 at two of the past four installments of the Toyota Owners 400. Expect a good effort out of him on Sunday, and don’t be afraid to back him for a little at 35-to-1.

Austin Dillon (65-to-1) - Austin Dillon has not quite had the breakout season that he was hoping for, but he is a very interesting value play this weekend. A win by Dillon at 65-to-1 would pay out huge, and he is still a talented enough driver to take a chance on here. He already has one top-five finish on the season, so it’s not like he is never giving himself a chance to win. Look for him to give himself another chance on Sunday, and don’t allow yourself to regret not putting a quarter-unit or so on him.