Ford EcoBoost 400 Preview
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Wow, this is it!
We've all been going at it strong since February, and after Sunday we'll go into hibernation for a few weeks until the 2017 NASCAR Sprint Cup season begins. Before I get started on the Championship 4 and who should win Sunday's Ford Ecoboost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, let me first thank you for visiting weekly and checking out what I have to say about the race each week.
So let's get on with who is going to be our 2016 Sprint Cup champion, and with it, I use all objectivity and won't reveal my personal rooting interest until the very end. And it's not who I think is going to win.
Last week's race at Phoenix gave us the final two pieces of the Championship 4 with Joey Logano winning and 2015 champion Kyle Busch finishing second. They'll join six-time champion Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards who already clinched a birth by virtue of each winning a race during the Round of 8.
None of the four championship eligible drivers have a point lead or deficit for Sunday's race. They're all tied and the eventual champion simply has to finish better than the other three. While there's 36 other drivers competing for the race win, the last two seasons have seen the eventual champion win at Homestead with another eligible driver finishing second. Kevin Harvick held off Ryan Newman in 2014 and last season Busch led the final six laps to finish just ahead of Harvick.
Sunday's race will have so many great storylines for each of the Championship 4. We've got Busch trying to be the first repeat champion since Johnson in 2010 while Johnson is attempting to win his seventh championship which would tie him with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for most in NASCAR history. Edwards has been the series runner-up twice, the last time in 2011 when Tony Stewart won the race to beat him. And then there's Logano who looked to be on his way to a title last season, but was taught a tough lessen during the Chase by a veteran as a form of payback. He's paid his dues and certainly is worthy of being a champion.
All four of the drivers are worthy of being champions. This season there wasn't any one driver that dominated, or stood out above everyone else. Five drivers are tied for the series-lead with four wins and nine drivers won multiple races. The entire season was very balanced with not one driver really standing out, which made it an outstanding season overall, maybe one of the best ever because of so much parity.
Let's take a look at each of the driver's resume and what makes them a good candidate to win on Homestead's high banked, 1.5-mile paperclip shaped oval. It's the 11th race this season on a 1.5-mile track, but the layout is unlike any other on the circuit.
Jimmie Johnson (2/1 to win title at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook): He's already considered one of the best all-time drivers with his 79 career wins, but seven titles puts him in an entirely different category in an era that is much more competitive than any other in NASCAR history. He won four races this season, but it was a real struggle for the team going winless from Race 6 all the way to Race 30 when he broke through with a win at Charlotte, which was his second win on a 1.5 this season. The odd part about Johnson and Homestead is that he's never won there in 15 starts. Part of the reason was because the old Chase format had a point structure and he could coast through without having to win. But still, no wins on this type of track is alarming for someone of his caliber. He's finished ninth there the past three seasons.
Kyle Busch (13/5): The Las Vegan battled hard at Phoenix just to have the opportunity to defend his title this week. He led the series with 17 top-five finishes and was second-best with 1,378 laps led. He won four races on the season, two of which were on 1.5-mile layouts (Texas and Kansas). However, his last win was 15 races ago at Indianapolis. He's finished sixth or better in his last three starts on 1.5s. His Homestead win last season was his first 11 starts and elevated his average finish there to 21.1.
Carl Edwards (3/1): His 9.3 average finish position at Homestead is the best among the Championship 4 drivers. He won there is 2008 and 2010, but he hasn't had a top-10 in his last four. What makes him such a good candidate this week is because he's been outstanding in his last two starts on 1.5-mile tracks. He led 61 laps at Kansas last month and finished second and then two weeks ago won at Texas which halted a 23-race winless streak.
Joey Logano (3/1): His Phoenix win last week was his first there and third win of the season. His 25 top-10 finishes are second only to Harvick. Like Edwards, Logano ran extremely well in the last two races on 1.5s, finishing third at Kansas and runner-up at Texas where he led a race-high 178 laps. During the Chase, he has two wins and a 7.9 average finish through nine races. Last year he had a career-best fourth-place at Homestead.
Championship Prediction: I think Logano offers the best value at 3-to-1 odds just because of his consistency during the Chase. I personally want to see Johnson win his seventh title, and he's favored for a reason, but I just think Logano has the momentum.
As for who I think will win the race itself, I'm going with Martin Truex Jr. just because he's crushed 1.5-mile tracks this season winning twice (Charlotte and Chicago) and leading 883 laps between the 10 races at this distance. For his career, he's always been good at Homestead, even before his season of 1.5 domination since being affiliated with Joe Gibbs Racing. He's got a 10.1 average finish with a career-best runner-up in 2006. If there was one driver who we could agree on that was the most dominant, it would probably be Truex, who lead the most laps (1,809) on all tracks.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
2) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
3) #19 Carl Edwards (8/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
5) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)
Homestead-Miami Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com
Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Sunday's Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Who's HOT at Homestead-Miami
• Kevin Harvick has a 1.5 average finish in his two track starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, including a win in 2014.
• Defending race winner Kyle Busch has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four starts.
• Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin are the only multiple race winners (two each) in the last 10 races Edwards also leads all drivers with 568 laps led on the current track configuration.
• Matt Kenseth has a 5.0 average finish and 144 laps led in his three track starts with Joe Gibbs Racing.
• Jimmie Johnson has finished ninth in his last three starts.
• Brad Keselowski, who led 86 laps in this event last year, has a 4.0 average finish in his last three start
Who to Keep an Eye On at Homestead-Miami
• Martin Truex Jr. has a 3.3 average finish, one win and had combined to lead 239 laps in the three races (Texas and Chicagoland) with this weekend's tire combination.
• Joey Logano, who finished fourth in this event last year, led 178 laps two weeks ago at Texas en route to a second-place finish.
• Chase Elliott and Kasey Kahne each finished in the top 10 in each of the races at Texas and Chicagoland this season. Elliott's finishes were all in the top five.
• Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season at 8.9 and 11.9, respectively.
• Trevor Bayne, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson were among the drivers that tested at Homestead-Miami last month.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Jeff Wackerlin: Joey Logano
Pete Pistone: Jimmie Johnson
Robbie Mays: Jimmie Johnson
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson
Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish in the Last Five Races at Homestead-Miami
Kevin Harvick is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last eight races at Homestead-Miami. He's posted a 1.5 average finish in his two starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, including a win to score the championship in 2014. This season, Harvick ranks seventh in average finish (10.1) and has one win in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season.
Matt Kenseth has finished seventh or better in his three Homestead-Miami starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. He won in 2007 with Roush Fenway racing and has a 15.2 average finish in 16 starts overall. This season, Kenseth ranks ninth in average finish (11.3) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Martin Truex Jr. has posted a 14.5 average finish in his two starts at Homestead-Miami with Furniture Row Racing. This season, has two wins and a series leading 7.7 average finish and 883 laps led in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks. Truex recorded his last of seven top 10s at HMS in 2013 when he was driving for Michael Waltrip Racing.
Brad Keselowski has finished sixth or better in his last three starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway, including two consecutive third-place finishes. He led 86 laps in this event last year and tested last month at HMS. Keselowski has two wins and ranks eighth in average finish (10.8 ) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Ryan Newman has posted a 9.0 average finish in his two starts at Homestead-Miami with Richard Childress Racing, including a runner-up in the championship in 2014. This season, Newman ranks 10th in average finish (11.9) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Homestead-Miami, including a win in 2013. He's combined to lead 122 laps in 2013 and 2014, but failed to lead a lap last season after starting from the pole. Hamlin is coming off third top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks, finishing ninth at Texas.
Kyle Larson finished fifth last season to lower his average finish to 11.0 in three starts at Homestead-Miami. This season, Larson has only one top 10 and has yet to lead a lap in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks. Homestead is Larson's second-best 1.5-mile track on the schedule based on average finish. He tested at Homestead-Miami last month.
Joey Logano led 72 laps and finished fourth last year for his best finish in seven starts at Homestead-Miami. He's finished in the top five in five of the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, including the last two.
Clint Bowyer finished 43rd last year in this event to snap a streak of four consecutive top 10s at Homestead-Miami. This season, Bowyer has a 25.0 average finish and has yet to finish in the top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks with HScott Motorsports.
Carl Edwards is a two-time winner at Homestead-Miami, but has not finished in the top 10 in his last four starts there. He finished 11th last season in his first track start with Joe Gibbs Racing. Edwards, who ranks second in average finish (9.2) at HMS, tested last month at the track. He also ranks sixth in average finish (9.1) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks and is the latest winner at Texas.
Kasey Kahne has yet to finish in the top 10 in four Homestead-Miami starts with Hendrick Motorsports. His last of four top 10s came in 2011 with Red Bull Racing. Kahne is one of only three drivers that have finished in the top 10 in each of the last four races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Kyle Busch won this race last year to take the championship for his fourth top 10 in eight Homestead-Miami starts with Joe Gibbs Racing. This season, Busch has recorded two wins and has finished in the top 10 eight times in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks, including the last four.
Jamie McMurray scored his only top 10 in the last seven Homestead-Miami races in 2014 - fifth. This season, McMurray has yet to lead a lap at a 1.5-mile tracks and has two top 10s in the 10 races held.
Kurt Busch has posted a 9.5 average finish in two Homestead-Miami starts, including an eighth-place finish last year. Busch's lone win at the track came in 2002 on the old configuration. This season, Busch ranks fourth in average finish (8.9) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks. Last month, Busch participated in the two-day test at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Ryan Blaney finished 17th in his first Sprint Cup start at Homestead-Miami last season. This season, Blaney has posted three top 10s in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks with the last coming at Chicagoland. Last month, Blaney tested at HMS.
Paul Menard scored his only top 10 in 10 starts at Homestead-Miami in 2014 - fourth. This season, Menard has recorded a 23.7 average finish and has yet to finish in the top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Jimmie Johnson has yet to win at Homestead-Miami, but has finished ninth in his last three starts there. This season, Johnson has posted two wins, 406 laps led (ranks second) and an 8.8 average finish (ranks third) in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Austin Dillon has posted a 19.5 average finish in two starts at Homestead-Miami. This season, Dillon has one pole (Texas) and three top 10s in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks. Dillon participated in the two-day test at Homestead-Miami last month.
Danica Patrick has posted a 20.7 average finish in three starts at Homestead-Miami. Her best finish in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks this season came at Charlotte last month - 11th.
Aric Almirola scored his last of two top 10s at Homestead-Miami in 2012. This season, Almirola has recorded and average finish of 23.6 and has yet to finish in the top 10 in the 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks.
Sprint Cup Championship 4 Preview
By: StatFox.com
Homestead-Miami Speedway will be hosting the Championship 4 when the Sprint Cup Series heads to Florida for the Ford EcoBoost 400. The guys gunning for the championship in this race are Jimmie Johnson (6-to-1 to win EcoBoost 400), Kyle Busch (6-to-1 to win EcoBoost 400), Carl Edwards (15-to-2 to win EcoBoost 400) and Joey Logano (15-to-2 to win EcoBoost 400). Busch was the winner last year, so it’d be very impressive if he were to take two in a row. It would not, however, be as impressive as what Johnson has done in his career. Johnson won five Sprint Cup championships in a row from 2006 to 2010. He won it again in 2013, and he’ll be eager to do it again this year. It’s worth mentioning that Logano and Johnson are the only two drivers of the four that haven’t won this race.
It should also be pointed out that this race isn’t amongst the four of them. Kevin Harvick is not going to be crowned a champion of the Sprint Cup Series, but he could win this race. He is one of the favorites at 6-to-1, as he won here in 2014 and drives well in Homestead. Both Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are worth mentioning as well. Stewart and Biffle are tied for the record for most wins in this race, as each of them have won three times in Homestead. They are both some serious value plays as well, as Stewart is getting 66-to-1 odds and Biffle is getting 100-to-1 odds. Both would pay off huge if they won and crazier things have happened. With that being said, tune in and enjoy this race. It should be the most exciting event of the season.