Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting News and Notes

Richmond - Driver Tale of the Tape

Clint Bowyer (No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, four top fives, 12 top 10s
· Average finish of 12.870, seventh-best
· Average Running Position of 12.389, sixth-best
· Driver Rating of 93.5, sixth-best
· 220 Fastest Laps Run, seventh-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.427, ninth-fastest
· 6542 Laps in the Top 15 (70.9), seventh-most
· 569 Quality Passes, 10th-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry

· Four wins, 15 top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 7.333, series-best
· Average Running Position of 7.878, third-best
· Driver Rating of 109.8, third-best
· 645 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.884, series-fastest
· 8462 Laps in the Top 15 (87.9), second-most
· 723 Quality Passes, third-most

Kurt Busch (No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, six top fives, 14 top 10s
· Average finish of 14.240, eighth-best
· Average Running Position of 13.278, eighth-best
· Driver Rating of 94.3, fifth-best
· 469 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.589, fourth-fastest
· 6312 Laps in the Top 15 (63.0), ninth-most
· 627 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr (No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, ten top fives, 14 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.958, 12th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.419, ninth-best
· Driver Rating of 86.2, 12th-best
· 366 Fastest Laps Run, second-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.360, 11th-fastest
· 5579 Laps in the Top 15 (58.0), 11th-most
· 572 Quality Passes, eighth-most

Denny Hamlin (No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Three wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s; three poles
· Average finish of 9.773, third-best
· Average Running Position of 7.658, second-best
· Driver Rating of 110.3, second-best
· 744 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.857, third-fastest
· 7473 Laps in the Top 15 (84.8 ), third-most
· 570 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford Fusion)

· Three wins, 12 top fives, 21 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 8.160, second-best
· Average Running Position of 7.291, series-best
· Driver Rating of 110.4, series-best
· 672 Fastest Laps Run, 12th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.864, second-fastest
· 9370 Laps in the Top 15 (93.5), series-most
· 814 Quality Passes, series-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· Three wins, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 15.200, 10th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.700, 11th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.3, eighth-best
· 343 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.438, seventh-fastest
· 6217 Laps in the Top 15 (62.0), 10th-most
· 593 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kasey Kahne (No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet SS)

· One win, five top fives, ten top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 15.760, 11th-best
· Average Running Position of 15.712, 13th-best
· Driver Rating of 86.2, 13th-best
· 408 Fastest Laps Run, third-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.425, 10th-fastest
· 5503 Laps in the Top 15 (54.9), 12th-most
· 585 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry)

· Two wins, six top fives, 16 top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 16.840, 13th-best
· Average Running Position of 14.739, 12th-best
· Driver Rating of 90.5, seventh-best
· 373 Fastest Laps Run, series-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.489, sixth-fastest
· 6431 Laps in the Top 15 (64.2), eighth-most
· 601 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Brad Keselowski (No. 2 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· One win, four top fives, seven top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 14.250, ninth-best
· Average Running Position of 11.499, fourth-best
· Driver Rating of 96.9, fourth-best
· 402 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.561, fifth-fastest
· 4608 Laps in the Top 15 (71.9), sixth-most
· 450 Quality Passes, 11th-most

Kyle Larson (No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One top five, one top 10
· Average finish of 11.714, fourth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.461, seventh-best
· Driver Rating of 88.3, 10th-best
· 31 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.332, 12th-fastest
· 2086 Laps in the Top 15 (74.3), fourth-most
· 218 Quality Passes, 13th-most

Joey Logano (No. 22 Team Penske Ford Fusion)

· Two wins, six top fives, nine top 10s; two poles
· Average finish of 12.471, sixth-best
· Average Running Position of 14.609, 10th-best
· Driver Rating of 87.4, 11th-best
· 143 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.268, 13th-fastest
· 3552 Laps in the Top 15 (52.1), 13th-most
· 369 Quality Passes, 12th-most

Ryan Newman (No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet SS)

· One win, six top fives, 17 top 10s; one pole
· Average finish of 12.080, fifth-best
· Average Running Position of 12.168, fifth-best
· Driver Rating of 89.7, ninth-best
· 151 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-best
· Average Green Flag Speed of 115.436, eighth-fastest
· 7239 Laps in the Top 15 (72.2), fifth-most
· 764 Quality Passes, second-most

Federated Auto Parts 400
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

It's not likely we'll see as much drama Saturday night to make the playoffs as we've seen in years past at Richmond International Raceway in the 26th and final race of the regular season.

The field is basically set unless we see any other driver outside the top-16 win. Drivers like Clint Bowyer in 17th, Erik Jones in 18th, Joey Logano in 19th and Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 22nd all need to win and are too far out to point themselves in.

Meanwhile the other drivers that are already qualified will be racing care-free with no worries and simply trying to gain more bonus points for the playoffs. They can go all out with no fear of anything. So what we've basically got this week is the entire field doing some daring stuff with nothing to lose and I enjoy that type of racing. It's kind of like the non-points All-Star Race on a short track without the $1 million check.

In the first race at Richmond this season in April, Logano came away with the win followed by his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski. It was Logano's second career win there and it should have been enough for him to qualify for the playoffs, but he had the points taken away after failing a post-race inspection, or in other words -- cheating. I like to call it creative engineering, but anyway, Logano has to win to make the playoffs.

Bowyer is also a two-time winner at Richmond and has always fared well on short flat tracks. Earnhardt Jr. is a three-time winner there and he'll have the loudest support from the Richmond crazies who know what's at stake in his final season as a full-time driver. Perhaps the best equipped to win right now among those needing to win is Jones just because he's had the same goods as teammate Martin Truex Jr.

Jimmie Johnson won his then-series leading third win at Dover on June 4, but he has seen a win since. he's got three Richmond wins, the last coming in 2008. However, it's important to note that over his last six starts there he's averaged a seventh-place finish.

The drivers that have showed the most consistent speed all season -- Truex and Kyle Larson -- had their best career Richmond results in this race last season. Larson finished second and Truex third, behind Denny Hamlin.

As far as what I think will happen, I don't see any reason to stray from a Joe Gibbs Racing driver. They've won four of the past seven races after going winless to start the season. Hamlin won last week at Darlington and finished third at Richmond in April. He's also a native Virginian with three wins there and a 9.7 average finish. The only driver in the series with a better average is teammate Kyle Busch at 7.3. Busch has four Richmond wins. Matt Kenseth has two wins and led the most laps there in April.

Busch has a reason why the JGR cars have been so good at Richmond.

“I think a lot of it comes from Denny (Hamlin), being that it’s his home track," Busch said. "I’ve been good there in Hendrick and JGR cars. But Denny and I really feed off each other an awful lot at Richmond. We use each other a ton there, just to be sure we can beat the rest of the competition, of course. We do like similar setups there, unlike some other places we run. Richmond is one of those places where we both know what it takes to get around and we’re both similar to one another in that we both run well. Matt (Kenseth) has only added to our information there as well.”

So basically we have the two best active drivers at Richmond who are the hottest drivers in the series of late. Sounds good to me.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1)
4) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
5) #20 Matt Kenseth (12/1)

Federated Auto Parts 400 Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

There will be a lot of drama on Saturday night at Richmond Raceway. This is the last chance that drivers have to qualify for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Several drivers have a lot to gain and a lot to lose with this week’s Federated Auto Parts 400 under the lights in the Commonwealth of Virginia. We’ll set the record straight on how things look right now and see who is worth your money for the 26th race of the NASCAR season.

As a reader astutely pointed out to us, we’ve been under the wrong impression on something for the majority of the season. Joey Logano, who, ironically, won the spring race at Richmond, is not in the playoff picture. Logano’s win was vacated due to a post-race inspection, so the #22 car is in win or go home format this week as it pertains to the NASCAR playoffs. A shout-out to @ShaiPlonski for setting us straight.

That is certainly a big deal in more ways than one, but especially this week. Thirteen* of the 16 spots in the NASCAR playoffs have been claimed by those that have won races and did not fail a post-race inspection. Those gentlemen are Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, and Kasey Kahne. As things currently stand, the last three in would be Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth, and Jamie McMurray. Right now, nobody can catch McMurray in points, so it will be win or go home for everybody below him in the standings. That means that we should see some very aggressive driving from the likes of Clint Bowyer, Joey Logano, Erik Jones, who has three straight top-five finishes, and Dale Earnhardt Jr., who needs a win to qualify for the playoffs in his final NASCAR season.

As far as the standings go, every driver will be pushing for a win this week, so we could see the most exciting race of the season on the three-quarter-mile oval in Richmond. Elliott, Kenseth, and McMurray are both clear of the pack in terms of points, so crashing out isn’t a big deal. That’s good for the viewer, to say the least.

Per this week’s odds at 5Dimes Sportsbook, a trio of Toyotas leads the charge with Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr. all at +550. Toyotas have claimed four of the last eight wins in the fall race at Richmond, so it probably comes as no surprise. It also comes as no surprise because those three drivers have combined for eight wins this season. Busch’s best track just might be Richmond, which is ironic because he has never won this race. He has four wins in the Cup Series race in the spring and six wins in Xfinity races. This is one that he has never gotten. You know that’s a motivating factor for him. Also, those that are in the playoffs need the wins for bonus points in the playoffs, so there’s some extra incentive there as well.

Truex has 1,000 points this season, 107 more than Kyle Busch. He has had a phenomenal season and has caught a good piece of most of the races this year. To go along with his four wins, Truex has 17 stage wins. The new scoring format has been a big help to him, as he has 334 stage points to lead the way over Kyle Larson, who has 265. Truex is winless at Richmond in both the Xfinity Series and the Cup Series. He did lead the most laps in this race last year en route to a third-place finish, which is his best career finish at this track. He actually hasn’t run particularly well here, so he’s a reputation-based favorite with a little bit of recency bias built in. He can win any week on any track, but others may be a better option.

Something about this night race suits Denny Hamlin. He has no spring race wins at Richmond, but three in the night race, including last year’s in an overtime finish. Hamlin’s team is getting hot at the right time. Over his last eight races, he has two wins and six top-five finishes. In that span, he’s climbed all the way to fifth in points. Hamlin didn’t have a win until the race at New Hampshire and it seemed to break the seal of frustration for his team. He’s certainly a good grab at this price and it wouldn’t be a stunner to see Hamlin and Busch run 1-2 most of the day.

Moving on down the board a little bit, let’s look at the longshots with something on the line. Joey Logano’s season has gone downhill of late, but he may be worth a bit of beer money at +2250. Logano needs this win. Without the safety net of his win in the spring at Richmond, it’s win or go home time. Obviously Logano and those that don’t qualify for the playoffs still fill out the field and can still win races, but that’s not enough for the competitive spirit of these guys, nor is it enough for the sponsors that pay good money for playoff drivers. Logano hasn’t cracked the top-12 since the Brickyard. He’s only done is four times since that win was taken away. He’ll have to be a reckless risk-taker here, but he certainly has that streak in him.

Erik Jones is an outstanding grab at +2500. He’ll be backed by Toyota equipment, which is always nice, and he’ll have some drivers looking out for him. A win from Jones would knock Jamie McMurray out if he falls behind fellow Toyota driver Matt Kenseth. You know that teams are looking out for each other this week. It doesn’t hurt that Jones has finished third, second, and fifth over his last three races, including the most laps led three weeks ago in the night race at Bristol. If you want to spray some money on a longshot, Jones is undoubtedly your guy.

Finally, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is almost worth a thank you bet at +8150. He did a fine job of carrying on his father’s legacy and he’s actually done pretty well at this track in the past. Junior has not won the fall race, but has three career wins in the spring race. It would be nice to see him make the playoffs given everything that he has gone through over the last year with concussions and the realization of what racing has done to his body. He doesn’t have the equipment and hasn’t had a great run since the road course at Sonoma, but $10 or $15 to have some rooting interest isn’t going to bust the bankroll.

Coverage of the Federated Auto Parts 400 will be on Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC Sports Network. The playoffs begin next week at Chicagoland Speedway with the Tales of the Turtles 400 on Sunday afternoon.

Richmond Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Jeff Wackerlin
Racingone.com

Detailed driver notes and statistics to help set your fantasy racing lineup for Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway.

Who's HOT at Richmond

• Defending race winner Denny Hamlin has the best average finish (3.3) and most laps led (249) in the three races with the current tire combination.
• Kevin Harvick has posted a 6.7 average finish in his seven track starts with Stewart-Haas racing and finished fifth in the last three races.
• Matt Kenseth, winner of this event on 2015, led 164 laps from the pole in the spring.
• Kyle Busch leads all drivers in wins (4 - all in the spring race) and average finish (7.3).
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in the last three races and led 193 laps in this event last year.
• Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last seven races dating back to his win in 2014.
• Brad Keselowski, who led 110 laps in the spring, has finished in the top five in his last two starts.
• Kurt Busch, winner of the 2015 spring race, has finished in the top 10 in the last three races.

Keep an Eye On at Richmond

• Jimmie Johnson (8.3), Jamie McMurray (9.7) and Kyle Larson (10.3) each rank in the top 10 in average finish in the three races at Richmond with the current tire combination.
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (9.2), Clint Bowyer (10.8 ) and Trevor Bayne (11.0) each rank in the top 10 in average finish at short tracks this season.
• Erik Jones and Ryan Newman have each finished in the top 10 in the last three races this season. All of Jones' finishes were in the top five and he's combined to lead 265 laps in that span.
• Aric Almirola started 25th and finished ninth in the spring at Richmond - his only top 10 this season not on a restrictor-plate track.
• Daniel Suarez finished 12th in his first Richmond start in the Cup Series in the spring.

MRN.com Staff Picks

Jeff Wackerlin: Martin Truex Jr.
Pete Pistone: Kyle Busch
Robbie Mays: Denny Hamlin
Tyler Burnett: Matt Kenseth
John Singler: Denny Hamlin

Driver Notes - Ordered by Average Finish (Top 15) in the Last Five Races at Richmond

Joey Logano is the only driver that has finished in the top 10 in each of the last seven races at Richmond, including two wins. He won in April, but the win was encumbered by NASCAR. Since the penalty at Richmond, Logano has only finished in the top 10 three times and has a 22.0 average finish in the last five races this season.

Kevin Harvick has finished in the top five in five of his seven Richmond starts with Stewart-Haas Racing, including the last three races. Harvick has won three times at Richmond with the last coming in the 2013 spring race. He holds the second-best average finish (5.0) in the three races with the current tire combination. This weekend, Harvick will make his 600th career start in a chassis (No. 899) that he's eight top 10s and led 697 laps with in 11 starts since 2014.

Kyle Busch is a four time winner at Richmond, but has yet to take the checkered flag in the September race. He finished ninth last year in this event for one of three top 10s in the last four races.

Jimmie Johnson has finished 11th or better in the last six races at Richmond. His last of three wins cane in this event in 2008. Johnson holds the sixth-best average finish (8.3) in the three races with the current tire combination.

Denny Hamlin has finished sixth or better in his last four Richmond starts, including a win in this event last year when he led 189 laps. The win was his third in 22 starts. He also holds the best average finish (3.3) and has led the most laps (249) in the three races with the current tire combination. Hamlin has finished fourth or better in four of the last five races this season, but his win last weekend at Darlington was encumbered by NASCAR. He will also be without his crew chief Mike Wheeler this weekend.

Brad Keselowski has finished eighth or better in five of the last seven races at Richmond, including a win in this event in 2014. He led 110 laps in the spring en route to a second-place finish. Keselowski holds the third-best average finish (5.7) in the three races with the current tire combination

Kurt Busch has finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races at Richmond, including a win in the 2015 spring race. Busch has finished eighth in the last two races.

Jamie McMurray has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at Richmond. McMurray is tied for the eighth best average finish (10.3) in the last three races this season.

Kyle Larson scored his first top 10 in seven Richmond starts last year in this event, finishing second.

Kasey Kahne finished 22nd in April to snap a streak of two consecutive top 10s at Richmond. Kahne does have one win at Richmond, but it was back in 2005 when he drove a Dodge for Ray Evernham.

Daniel Suarez finished 12th in his first start at Richmond in the Cup Series in April.

Martin Truex Jr. has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts at Richmond. He led 193 laps and finished third in this event last year. Truex holds the fifth-best average finish (7.3) in the three races with the current tire combination

Aric Almirola finished ninth in April for his fourth top 10 in 11 starts at Richmond.

Matt Kenseth started from the pole and led 164 laps in the spring at Richmond. He finished 23rd in the race after having a tire go down. Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in three of the last five races, including a win in this event on 2015.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. scored his last of 14 top 10s at Richmond in this event in 2015. His last of three wins came in 2006 when he was racing for Dale Earnhardt, Inc.