Bojangles' Southern 500
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
Break out the grill, open up a can Pabst and turn on the TV for some late Sunday afternoon NASCAR racing. It's one of the great American traditions on Labor Day weekend. Since 1950, NASCAR has been running the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway's egg-shaped, high banked 1.366-mile layout. We don't work on Monday, so let's take it up a notch and party on Sunday.
This track oozes NASCAR history which is why fans have been coming to this track in the middle of no where in South Carolina for so long. It's tradition, and while NASCAR was resisting against it's historical importance for a brief period from 2005 to 2014 in favor of more traditional modern tracks, they saw the errors of their ways and brought the Labor Day weekend race back in 2015.
Rather than argue with angry fans about moving the Labor Day tradition, NASCAR embraced it and took things up full throttle asking teams to dress their race cars up in old school paint schemes. Last season Kyle Larson turned his No. 42 into a Mellow-Yellow Chevrolet, similar to what Kye Petty drove in the 1980's or Cole Trickle drove to a Darlington win in the movie "Days of Thunder." Just about every car entered this weekend will have something that will remind us of decades past. I love that!
“I like going to Darlington – it’s a fun place although it’s bit me a lot of times," Kyle Busch said. "I should have won probably twice as many races as I’ve won there, which is frustrating. I was glad to win there in 2008 and get my Southern 500 win – that was pretty cool. Why we’re good there? I don’t know, but it’s a place that a lot of the driver comes into play and I feel like all the JGR drivers obviously are really, really good. Of course, our equipment is good, too, and we can run fast there – run well there – and, if you can keep air in the tires, you might win.”
So, who is going to win? First of all, this thing is wide open. The track too tough to tame with four differing corners doesn't play favorites with anyone. She dishes out wrath and Darlington stripes to everyone alike. They call Darlington 'The Lady in Black' and she's looking at a moment in its history where so few drivers have conquered her. When Jeff Gordon retired with his seven Darlington wins, that left Jimmie Johnson as the active leader with three wins. Seven other drivers have one each. That's it. She's intimidating.
“A Darlington Stripe is pretty easy to receive," Busch said. "Running at Darlington is so tough and we are carrying so much speed there nowadays that you have to run right up there against the wall in order to get your car pointed correctly for the next corner, the next apex you have to make. So, running next to the wall in (turn) one and (turn) two and turning down coming off of two and carrying big momentum and big speed down the backstretch in order to set yourself up for turn three is important. Running high in three and four all the way through the corner, trying to keep the momentum going, because it’s such a tighter corner that the radius difference between each end of the track, you try to spread that radius as wide as you can and that’s right up against the wall. So, at any moment that car can slip and, during a run when the tires fall off, you have to be aware of one to two seconds of tire fall-off and your car is slowing down and at any moment you might slip a little bit and tag that wall. It can be very easy to do.”
Denny Hamlin has been the best among all active drivers with a 6.2 average finish in 11 career starts, which includes a 2010 win. He's been runner-up three times and has finished third and fourth, respectively, the past two seasons. After struggling to find speed for the first two-thirds of the season, the Joe Gibbs Racing squad is flexing their muscles in the past six races.
Hamlin captured the teams' first win of 2017 at New Hampshire, the 19th race of the season. Then Kyle Busch won his first of the year two weekend later at Pocono and then he won again at Bristol before the series took last week off. That's three wins in six races and only two races remain until the playoffs start at Chicagoland. I'd say they have themselves positioned nicely as a team to win a championship. Look to them this week as well.
Martin Truex Jr. has had no problem this season capturing wins with JGR equipment. He's team has been on a bit of a different program from the four JGR drivers, but it's proved to be one of the most successful in the Cup series as he leads with four wins and 951 points. Truex won this race last season and he should be considered the favorite this week.
Kyle Larson was third last season, 10th the year before and eighth in rookie campaign of 2014. That comes out to a seventh-place average which makes him second-best among active drivers behind Hamlin.
Jimmie Johnson was for the third and final time in 2012, but had a rough 33rd-place finish last season. Overall, he's third-best in the series with a 10.4 average finish.
The driver I'll be rooting for, but have no money wagered on, is Johnson's Hendrick teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. in what will likely be his final race at Darlington. He's never won thee in 21 starts but does have a respectable 14th-place average finish. He missed last years race with a concussion, but he finished eighth in 2015, second in 2014 and ninth in 2013.
The reason I won't have any money on Junior is just because it doesn't appear he or his team has any urgency to get some good gear. They're not looking like a team that is anywhere close to winning. For nostalgia purposes, I'd like him to to win and make the Chase in his final year. That is the only way he can make the Chase.
Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #11 Denny Hamlin (9/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3) #42 Kyle Larson (6/1)
4) #20 Matt Kenseth (15/1)
5) #78 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
Bojangles’ Southern 500 Betting Predictions
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes one stop each year at Darlington Raceway in the northeast corner of South Carolina. From the inaugural race in 1950 to 2003, the race was annually held on Labor Day Weekend. It was in November for one year in 2004 and then spent 10 years being in the month of May on Mother’s Day Weekend. In 2015, the race returned to Labor Day Weekend and was rebranded as throwback to the good old days of stock car racing.
Since the move back to 2015, the race has featured vintage paint schemes. Ironically, despite its throwback nature, Toyota cars have won each of the last two races at Darlington and when people think old school NASCAR, Toyota isn’t even a blip on the radar. This week’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 is the 25th race of the 26-race regular season. Next week, the drivers will be at Richmond and two weeks from now, the Cup Championship Playoffs start at Chicagoland. The drivers had a bye week last week to get geared up for the final two races and these are two important events for the drivers on the outside looking in.
Through 24 races, there have been 14 different race winners. Those with a win get automatic entry into the playoffs, which is a policy that could very well change in the future given what it means for this season and the 16 playoff spots. Those drivers that are safely in the playoffs are Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Blaney, Kurt Busch, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kasey Kahne, and Austin Dillon. Right now, Chase Elliott and Matt Kenseth are holding down the two remaining spots, with Jamie McMurray just eight points behind Kenseth and Clint Bowyer just 11 points behind. Elliott, Kenseth, McMurray, and Bowyer rank seventh, eighth, ninth, and 10th, respectively, in points, but they are not assured of anything from this point forward.
The 1.366-mile oval at Darlington Raceway goes out wider in turns 1 and 2, which are both at 25-degree banking. Turns 3 and 4 are at 23-degree banking. Darlington is a challenging track, where racers are almost up against the track more so than their competitors. This is a very quick track and one where we could see quite a few cautions, so it should be an entertaining race with a lot of drama.
Not surprisingly, Kyle Busch is the race favorite according to 5Dimes Sportsbook at +400. Busch has really gotten on track over the last few weeks. He didn’t pick up his first win of the season until the second race at Pocono about a month ago, but he picked up his second win last week at Bristol in the Night Race. He’s now second in points, albeit a distant second to Martin Truex Jr., who leads by 101 points. Busch’s lone win here came back in 2008. He hasn’t had a ton of success at Darlington, but he’s running so well lately that it’s hard to call anybody else the favorite. Busch wasn’t winning races earlier this year, but he’s still third in stage points behind Truex and Kyle Larson.
Speaking of Truex, he’s a close second favorite at +425. Truex excels on 1.5-mile tracks, but this one is a little bit shorter and has a little bit different of a layout. Even still, Toyotas have won each of the last two races and three of the last four at Darlington. Truex Jr. is the reigning champion after grabbing the checkered flag for his first career win in South Carolina. Prior to last year’s win, his best finish at Darlington was when he came in fifth back in 2012. Since his win at Kansas, Truex has two additional wins, a second, and four third-place finishes. Like Busch, his team is running well at the right time. He’s a good look this week as well.
Kyle Larson is +550 this week. Just when it looked like Larson was seeing the clock strike midnight on his Cinderella season, he emerged as the winner at Michigan two races ago. He had finished 28th, 33rd, and 23rd in the three races before that. He was ninth last week at Bristol on the short track. Larson has had a lot of speed on longer tracks this year, so he is very dangerous in this spot. Larson was third in this race last year for easily his best finish at Darlington, but he has four top-10 finishes here in four races. It looks like we could see a chalky race with one of the three favorites coming in with the title.
Those looking at drivers with a lot to gain this week have to look at Matt Kenseth at +1150. Kenseth needs a win to feel safe. He won this race back in 2013 and he has been running at a high level of late. He has a top-five finish in four of his last six races and he won Stage 2 last week to pick up some much needed bonus points. Kenseth has some mixed results at Darlington. He was sixth last year and 21st the year before, but scored a top-five finish back in 2014. It’s a tough spot for Kenseth, who needs to be aggressive and play for a win, just to remove all doubt, but crashing out and finishing towards the bottom of the pack would be devastating and could put him in a must-win situation next week at Richmond. Given how Toyota has run lately and how Toyotas have run at Darlington, he’s a decent gamble at a good price.
Teammate Erik Jones is getting very close to that first Cup Series win. Jones is at +1750 this week. He finished second with the most laps led and the pole last week at Bristol. He was third in the race at Michigan. Jones could very well sneak up and steal a spot with a win. The 21-year-old Michigander ran pretty well at Darlington in his debut there in the Xfinity Series last year when he finished sixth. We never have to worry about equipment with Jones, who is a Joe Gibbs Racing team member. We have to worry about his inexperience. It seems like he’s getting stronger as the season goes along with four straight top-10 finishes.
If you’re looking for other low prices, Kevin Harvick (+800) and Denny Hamlin (+700) both have back-to-back top-five finishes at Darlington. Harvick has had a down season overall, but he also has a win here back in 2014. Hamlin is coming on strong, with three top-five finishes in his last four races. He also has a win here back in 2010. It looks like a good weekend for Toyota, so focus your bets on those drivers.
Bojangles' Southern 500 - Drivers to Bet
By: StatFox.com
The drivers head to Darlington Raceway for the Bojangles’ Southern 500 on Sunday, and there are only two races left until the postseason begins. That means that guys will be driving with some extra intensity in this one, as they need to improve their rankings before the playoffs begin. This race is one that Jeff Gordon was the king of, but you can say that about plenty of other events. Regardless, Gordon won this race six times in his career and no other driver has won more Bojangles’ Southern 500 than him. As for active drivers, the one that will be the most confident out here in this race is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson is the only driver in this race that has won this event twice in his career, and Hendrick Motorsports has had one of its drivers win this thing 11 times. That is six more victories than Joe Gibbs racing, which is the second-best team at the Bojangles’ Southern 500. As for last year’s winner, that would be Martin Truex Jr. He finished in 3:57:54 and will definitely be a threat to win a second straight here this year. With that out of the way, here’s a look at some of the best values:
Martin Truex Jr. (7-to-2) - As previously mentioned, Truex Jr. is the defending champion here at Darlington and that is going to give him some confidence when he’s out on the track on Sunday. Truex Jr. also happens to be driving very well recently, as he won the I Love New York 355 three races ago and has also finished inside the top-three in two other races in the past four. He might not be getting very favorable odds at 7-to-2, but that is just because he truly stands out as a favorite here. He’s worth a unit or two.
Kevin Harvick (8-to-1) - Kevin Harvick won the Bojangles’ Southern 500 back in 2014, but he has also raced well here in the past two of these races as well. Harvick finished in fifth place in 2015 and then came in second last year. He clearly enjoys driving at Darlington Raceway and will certainly be a contender to win this thing on Sunday. He also has some very favorable odds at 8-to-1, so he is worth backing for at least a little.
Matt Kenseth (10-to-1) - Matt Kenseth is going to be a good value this weekend, as he is getting 10-to-1 odds and definitely has a shot to win this thing. Kenseth won the Bojangles’ Southern 500 back in 2013, and he finished in 3:32:45. That was the fastest time anybody finished this race since 1999, but that 1999 race was also shortened due to intense rain. Anybody that has done that well on a course should be considered a factor, so don’t be afraid to take him.
Austin Dillon (80-to-1) - Austin Dillon has had an up-and-down season thus far, but he did earn his first ever Monster Energy Cup Series victory earlier in the year and came in seventh in Michigan two weeks ago. Dillon now heads to Darlington, where he looked very solid in a 12th place finish a year ago. He is a good value at 80-to-1 and it would only take a very small play to pay out nicely.
Darlington Fantasy Racing Preview
By: Pete Pistone
Racingone.com
MRN's Pete Pistone gets you ready for Sunday’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway with a look at some of the drivers in the field for the 25th Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race of the season.
Who’s HOT at Darlington
Kyle Busch: Definitely the hottest driver in the series with his recent wins and finishes at the front of the field. Busch is a former Darlington winner and has only finished outside the top 10 one time in his last five Darlington races.
Jimmie Johnson: It’s easy to dismiss Johnson at this time of the season, especially since he’s going through another one of his less-than-stellar summer stretches. But Johnson is typically very good at Darlington, so disregard his problem-filled 33rd-place finish a year ago.
Martin Truex Jr.: The better question is what track is Truex not a favorite at these days. The defending race winner maybe doesn’t have a stellar overall Darlington career to lean on. But the way he’s running in 2017, back-to-back trips to Victory Lane is a distinct possibility.
Kevin Harvick: He leads the list in best average finish over the last five races at Darlington with a 5.8 average finish - with his last four outings adding up to finishes of fifth, first, fifth and second last season.
Denny Hamlin: He’s right behind Harvick on average finish for the last five Darlington races at 6.0 thanks to four top-five runs, with the only blemish a 19th-place performance in 2014.
Who's NOT
Danica Patrick: "The Lady in Black" has not been kind to the only lady in Sunday’s field. Patrick has struggled at Darlington to the tune of a 29.4 average finish the last five times out and was 24th last year.
Paul Menard: His high-water mark since 2012 was a 13th that season and since then, Menard hasn’t finished any better than 16th, last year.
David Ragan: Lots of rumors swirling around Front Row Motorsports these days in regards to next year, but Ragan will have to improve greatly at Darlington this weekend to put that speculation on the back burner. He has an average finish of 32.0 dating back to 2012.
Aric Almirola: Richard Petty Motorsports is also in the rumor mill for next season and Almirola’s name has popped up in recent scenarios. Like Ragan, he’ll need to step it up at Darlington to get the spotlight back on performance as he’s finished 23rd in the last two races there.
Ryan Blaney: Has one of the coolest paint schemes in Sunday’s throwback race with the Wood Brothers retro look. But Blaney’s two Darlington Cup outings have been anything but memorable with a 30th and a 13th.
Who to Keep an Eye On at Darlington
Matt Kenseth: He has two shots left to win in the regular season and Darlington might be his best bet. Kenseth won in 2013 and has only finished outside the top 10 once in the last five years.
Joey Logano: He needs a win to earn a playoff berth and brings optimism to Darlington, where he finished fifth last season and fourth the year before.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: It’s bound to be an emotional weekend for Earnhardt, a student of the sport, as he makes his last Darlington appearance behind the wheel. Earnhardt missed last year’s race with his concussion but had three straight top-10 finishes prior.
Kyle Larson: In three Darlington Cup Series starts, Larson has finished 8th, 10th and 3rd. He also participated in the Goodyear Tire test.
Brad Keselowski: He’d like to get some momentum going into the playoffs with a strong finish to the regular season. Keselowski has been second and ninth the last two seasons. He also participated in the Goodyear Tire test.
Rookies Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez: Each will be making their first Cup Series start at Darlington but have top 10s in the XFINITY Series there with Suarez finishing third in two starts. Jones, who participated in the Goodyear tire test, is coming off the best race of his young Cup career, leading 260 laps en route to a runner-up finish at Bristol.
MRN.com Staff Picks
Pete Pistone: Martin Truex Jr.
Jeff Wackerlin: Denny Hamlin
Robbie Mays: Brad Keselowski
Tyler Burnett: Kyle Larson
John Singler: Jimmie Johnson