Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets, 9/10/2018 Prediction & Odds

Marlins vs. Mets Prediction

The New York Mets are massive favorites to beat division rivals the Miami Marlins at 7:10 p.m. ET with Jacob deGrom on the hill. With no value in the side, where is the value in the total for bettors?

Game Snapshot & Odds

905 Miami Marlins (+268) at 906 New York Mets (-305); 6.5 runs

Monday, September 10, 2018

7:10 p.m. ET, Citi Field

TV: MIA (FSFL); NYM (SNY)

Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Mets as a -305 favorite. As of this writing, 79% of the betting tickets wagered at online sportsbooks are on the Mets to beat the Marlins on the moneyline. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our MLB Public Betting Page for updated figures on this game.

Marlins’ Brigham allows four runs in MLB debut

Jeff Brigham allowed four runs in three innings on four hits in a loss to the Blue Jays on Sunday. Brigham couldn’t command anything in his limited work, walking four hitters and throwing just 47-of-82 pitches for strikes. It was the 26-year-old’s big-league debut, so it’s at least somewhat understandable that there were some nerves here. Still, his lack of swing-and-miss stuff and fits of control issues make him a tough sale as a fantasy starter. He’ll try and rebound from this effort with his next start, but that hasn’t been scheduled as of yet.

Mets’ deGrom hurls gem vs. Dodgers, breaks Doc Gooden’s record

Jacob deGrom allowed one run over six innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Monday. DeGrom broke Dwight Gooden’s single-season major-league record -- established in 1985 -- by allowing three earned runs or fewer for the 25th consecutive start. He’s gone at least six innings and allowed one run or fewer in 16 starts this year, yet the Mets’ record is somehow only 9-7 in those contests. The 30-year-old right-hander further cemented his status as the consensus choice for the NL Cy Young Award, tossing six innings of one-run ball against a loaded Dodgers lineup. He struck out six batters and only issued one walk. He also helped his own cause with a pair of hits, including a game-tying RBI single in the fifth inning. He's recorded an RBI in four of his last six starts. deGrom is 8-8 with a major league-leading 1.68 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 230/42 K/BB ratio in 28 starts.

MLB Betting Trends

Miami

The Marlins are 10-25 in their last 35 games overall.

New York

The Mets have won six of their last eight games overall.

Prediction:

As noted in the intro, there’s no value in laying -305 on the money with the Mets. There have been too many times this season when the Mets have blown one of deGrom’s gems and you won’t have much success betting games where the money line is that extreme. So let’s take a look at the total.

The over is actually 10-2-2 in deGrom’s last 14 starts versus the Marlins and 6-2 in his last eight home outings versus Miami. While the Marlins may not scratch across many runs versus deGrom, the Mets should do plenty of damage against Brigham and with the total set too low, I’m rolling the dice on the over.

 

The Pick: Marlins/Mets over 6.5