Reds vs. Mets Monday Prediction
The Reds and Mets open a new series at Citi Field starting on Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Given the Tanner Roark-Zack Wheeler matchup, as well as the Reds’ struggles on the road this year, are the Mets a safe play as a money line favorite?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Monday, April 29, 2019
7:10 p.m. ET, Citi Field, New York, NY
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new Baseball Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
According to our MLB Public Betting Chart page, 75% of the betting tickets are on the White Sox to beat the Tigers on the moneyline.
Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Spin
Scott Schebler hit a two-run double in Sunday's loss to the Cardinals. Schebler went up to get a breaking pitch riding in on him in the ninth inning, pulling it inside the first base bag to score two runs. It was his only hit in four at-bats, and just his second hit in his last 32 at-bats as he's struggled mightily at the dish to start the year. The 28-year-old is hitting a paltry .139/.262/.250 overall.
New York Mets Fantasy Spin
Pete Alonso hit his first career triple in the Mets' win over the Brewers on Sunday. The ball nearly traveled over the wall in left field but instead caromed back into play, with Ryan Braun taking a spilled beer to the head. Alonso then scored on a Todd Frazier RBI single. The rookie sensation has a terrific .306/.398/.684 batting line with 18 extra-base hits (including nine home runs) through his first 27 major league games. He's up to 20 runs scored and also has 24 RBI.
MLB Betting Trends
The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games versus the Mets at Citi Field.
The Mets are 21-6 in their last 27 games versus the Reds.
In searching for value, the best play tonight is the Mets’ runline (-1.5, +130). There’s no question they have the edge in the pitching matchup, as Wheeler is missing bats at a 10.5% rate and currently owns an elite 25.0% contact rate. Meanwhile, Roark owns healthy walk (7.0%) and hard-contact (30.4%) rates but his SIERA is up to 4.43 and unlike Wheeler, he’s not striking out many hitters (19.5%). The Mets also offer the better offense and with the Reds just 4-10 on the road, New York is worth the -1.5 gamble.
The Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (+130)