Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, March 28, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
PGA Tour Betting Preview
Houston Open
Golf Club of Houston – Par 72 – 7,441 yards
The PGA Tour has one final tune-up before the first Major of the year next week and many of the biggest names in the game are already booking early flights to Augusta this week to get a few extra days of prep in.
However, the field at the Houston Open still has its fair share of quality names in the field as guys like Justin Rose (+1000), Rickie Fowler (+1000), Jordan Spieth (+1100), Henrik Stenson (+1200), and Phil Mickelson (+1200) lead the field in terms of being favored here.
Mickelson is the only past winner of that group (2011) but Spieth did finish T2 here in 2015, while Stenson finished with a runner-up finish in 2013 and 2016. But just like last week's Match Play event where we saw many of the big names fall early, 100% focus on winning the Houston Open may not particularly be the case for these guys atop the favorites list.
The winner of the Houston Open does earn one of the last spots to Augusta National next week and that's probably more important then the prize money to most. That's another reason why guys who are already on their way to Augusta next week may be better to avoid more often than not this week. The last four winners of this event were not in the Masters Field previously, so it's not a horrible idea to go out on a limb and back someone who does have that extra motivation this week.
One guy who's going to be the early focus of the “get to Augusta” narrative at Houston will be Ian Poulter (+8000), who thought he punched his ticket with a strong performance into the Elite Eight of the Match Play event last week, only be told minutes before teeing off in that round that he still needed to win one more match. Poulter has not made it a secret that he wants to get to the Masters this year, so if you're into narratives like that, the crafty Englishman is definitely in good form and has plenty of motivation behind him.
This Golf Club of Houston course is one where guys need to score a lot of birdies with the winning score being -15 or better each of the past eight years. Capitalizing on the Par 5's is a must, but where guys will separate themselves is on Par 4 scoring and with their long iron ball striking.
The greens are relatively flat and easy to nail down (in stark contrast to what they'll see at Augusta), so keeping the ball out of trouble prior to reaching the green is a must. While Augusta National casts a large shadow over this event, let's take a look at a few of the golfers I'm backing this week:
Odds per - Sportsbetting.ag
Golfers to Watch
Daniel Berger (+2500) – Berger is next on the list outside of those big five favorites I mentioned at the top and while he didn't have the best form last week, a return trip to Houston might be exactly what he needs to rebuild some of his confidence. He's a guy that's already in the Masters field next week so there isn't that motivation looming over him, but a strong week would help grow his confidence heading into Augusta and his past course history at Houston suggests he'll be in it till the end.
Berger has finishes of 5th, T5, and T25 at this tournament the last three years respectively and that's tough to ignore. He's got Top 30 finishes in seven of his last starts in stroke play events and five of those seven were Top 15's or better. If he can put it all together for four rounds this week, a 25-1 payout is a nice thing to have in your back pocket.
Bud Cauley (+8000) – Cauley is a guy that missed the cut at Houston last year and has had an up-and-down two months or so. He's missed cuts in three of his last five starts, but the two cuts he did make ended up with a T20 finish at the Genesis Open and a T14 finish at the Arnold Palmer invitational. Cauley's a guy that's definitely hit or miss, but when he's on, he is someone to watch out for.
Cauley is a guy that's never been to Augusta in his career and the Alabama alum would love to make his first trip down Magnolia Lane this year. That's quite a motivating factor for him this week and if he can harness that into better play off the green (82nd in strokes gained off the tee) and into the greens (101st in strokes gained approach) he should be alive come Sunday afternoon. Being in contention at the Arnold Palmer until weekend rounds of 70 and 73 took him out was a good reminder that he's capable of winning on Tour. That 73 on Sunday came as he got his first taste of playing with Tiger Woods and all that craziness, so in a more normal setting this week for Cauley, look for him to be a longshot that could fly under the radar.
Kevin Streelman (+10000) – Speaking of longshots that could fly under the radar this week, Kevin Streelman definitely fits that bill and he's got the all-around game to do really well at Houston. Streelman ranks in the Top 30 in both strokes gained off the tee and in approach this year, is 14th in the tee-to-green numbers and 51st overall. The thing that really holds Streelman back has been his putting (183rd in strokes gained putting), but with flatter, easier greens out there in Houston, that shouldn't be a huge concern this week. Whether or not he gets the flatstack going on a little heater is anyone's guess, but at these odds I'm willing to take a shot that he will.
Streelman is also a guy that's looking to get back to Augusta after not being involved in the event last year after being at Augusta for four straight years from 2013 to 2016. His past results at Houston don't jump off the page (T49 in 2017, MC in 2016, T42 in 2015), but his game has been really consistent this year (11 for 12 in made cuts) and he could find himself in contention on Sunday.
Odds to win Houston Open - per Sportsbetting.ag
Justin Rose +1000
Rickie Fowler +1000
Jordan Spieth +1100
Henrik Stenson +1200
Phil Mickelson +1200
Daniel Berger +2500
Luke List +2500
Russell Henley +2800
Tony Finau +2800
Matt Kuchar +3300
Rafael Cabrera Bello +2800
Steve Stricker +4000
Byeong Hun An +4000
Charles Howell III +4000
Thomas Pieters +5000
Jason Dufner +5000
Keegan Bradley +5000
Jamie Lovemark +5000
Emiliano Grillo +6600
Chez Reavie +6600
JB Holmes +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Brandt Snedeker +6600
Shubhankar Sharma +6600
Jason Kokrak +6600
Bud Cauley +8000
Bill Haas +6600
Russell Knox +6600
Harris English +8000
Dylan Frittelli +8000
Ryan Palmer +8000
Patrick Rodgers +8000
Scott Piercy +8000
James Hahn +8000
Kelly Kraft +8000
Ian Poulter +8000
Jhonattan Vegas +8000
Sean O'Hair +8000
Brice Garnett +8000
Paul Dunne +10000
Seungsu Han +10000
Martin Kaymer +10000
Chesson Hadley +10000
Peter Uihlein +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Aaron Wise +10000
Shane Lowry +10000
William McGirt +10000
John Huh +12500
Lee Westwood +12500
If anyone is interested, I have my annual MASTERS pool.
For details click the link below.