Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 3/25/20
By Mike Dempsey
After a couple of days playing the ponies in Oklahoma and Nebraska, we have a little normalcy returning to our wagering on Wednesday with Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs in the mix.
We fared okay yesterday with four recommended exactas in the eight races making up my Best Plays Report from Will Rogers Downs and Fonner Park, the payoffs $30.60, $53.60, $9.80 and $9.40.
I feel much more comfortable playing the Florida tracks and we have a big week at Gulfstream Park. On Friday there are three stakes races and Saturday is Florida Derby Day with seven stakes on the betting menu.
The $1 million Florida Derby (G1) is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The Run for the Roses has been pushed back to Saturday, Sept. 5 because of the Coronavirus crisis.
Gulfstream Park is located in Hallandale, which is in Broward County and Vice Mayor Sabrina Javellana is not thrilled that racing is still going.
Only essential businesses are supposed to be open, and while Gulfstream Park has closed their casino and restaurants, the racing is going on without spectators, limiting the amount of people at the track.
Gulfstream Park is owned by the Stronach Group, and the company got the go ahead to continue racing at Santa Anita. There is word the company is considering suing the county to keep racing going at Gulfstream Park is necessary.
The list of tracks that are still running is shrinking. Among the tracks still scheduled to run are Gulfstream Park, Santa Anita, Tampa Bay Downs, Fonner Park, Will Rogers Downs, Los Alamitos, Turfway Park, Remington Park and Oaklawn Park.
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $200 for new players.
My Best Plays Report for Wednesday includes my nine strongest plays from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.
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Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:
GP Race 1 Md $16,000 (1:00 ET)
#12 Rapstorerocks 8-1
#10 Mayito 7-2
#9 First in Line 6-1
#11 Hero Up 4-1
Analysis: Rapstorerocks makes his sixth career start and catches a field here the Breen trainee should be able to handle. Last out the colt was bumped early, had to steady on the backstretch and then got caught in tight quarters and had to steady again in the stretch in a sixth-place finish, beaten 2 1/2 lengths. The colt has shown mild improvement and now gets a jock upgrade here to Paco. He has a solid turf pedigree, by Red Rocks out of an Arch mare that has dropped four winners and three have won on turf. He was my top pick last Friday at 5-1 when the card got canceled does not draw as well here but should be a fair price.
Mayito returns off a two month break here for the Saffie barn that has been very live at the meeting. He returns a gelding (the horse not the trainer) and is coming off a solid second last out at Tampa Bay Downs against $32,000 foes. He ran second in his debut and then was fourth second out. He gets jammed in her for $16,000 for a barn that is 32% winners with newcomers to the barn. he is out of an Arch mare, her first foal to ace.
Wagering
WIN: #12 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 10,12 / 9,10,11,12
TRI: 10,12 / 9,10,11,12 / 7,9,10,11,12
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
TAM Race 6 Md Sp Wt (3:18 ET)
#1 Enjoy the Music 9-2
#6 Idle Time 7-2
#2 North Dakota 8-5
#9 Winter's Wonder 8-1
Analysis: Enjoy the Music returns off a 3 1/2 month break here for the Delacour barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. His last was his first go on turf, stalking the early pace and finishing evenly in a third-place finish. The winner Bye Bye Melvin drew away to win by 8 1/4 lengths and then came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in his next outing on Jan. 8. He is by Pioneerof the Nile out of a stakes placed Indian Charlie mare, her first foal to race. The barn can have them ready to go off the break and the 9-2 morning line looks fair on this guy who still appears to have some upside on turf.
Idle Time debuts for the Clement barn that is 28% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The gelding has a solid enough turf pedigree, by Into Mischief out of a Mr. Greeley mare that has dropped two other foals to race, both winners including one turf winner. A steady string of works on the morning tab and the barn has been very live here, winning at a 38% clip.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,2,6,9
TRI: 1,6 / 1,2,6,9 / 1,2,4,6,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:
GP Race 7 Clm $16,000 (4:05 ET)
#2 Verdict Is In 5-2
#8 Keepsakekitten 9-5
#9 Earthquake 8-1
#7 Allgorilla 4-1
Analysis: Verdict Is In stalked the early pace and battled on gamely in the stretch to miss by just a neck last out in a runner up finish versus $20,000 foes. The gelding was 6 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. The Plesa trainee earned a career top speed fig and Paco sticks as the gelding drops in for a $16,000 tag here. He has landed in the exacta in 3 of his 5 trips over the grass here. A repeat of his last makes him tough in this spot.
Keepsakekitten got a good trip last out at Tampa Bay Downs. The colt tracked the early pace while saving ground and finished gamely to win by a neck over $25,000 starter optional claimers. Two back in his first start against winners he was a good second behind repeat winner Monforte, who was one of four in that race to win next out, winning his next two starts including a starter stake. He is in good hands with the Saffie barn that is having a strong meeting, hitting at a 27% clip. The logical one to beat but our top pick is going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,7,8,9
TRI: 2,8 / 2,7,8,9 / 2,4,7,8,9
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Gulfstream Park
R2: #7 Zandrea’s 10-1
R4: #11 We Connected 20-1
R4: #9 Still Schemin 8-1
R5: #8 Tara 8-1
R6: #2 Kiffle 12-1
R7: #9 Earthquake 8-1
R9: #4 Surf and Turf 8-1
R10: #10 Healy’s Hope 10-1
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE
Gulfstream Park - Race 1
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Maiden Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 86 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 1:00P
(RAIL AT 36 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. LOVEDISC is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HERO UP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAYEZ: Ho rse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FIRST IN LINE: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimu m of 50 starts). Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. LOVEDISC: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
11
HERO UP
4/1
5/1
6
FAYEZ
12/1
6/1
9
FIRST IN LINE
6/1
7/1
3
LOVEDISC
9/2
7/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
11
HERO UP
11
4/1
Front-runner
78
84
102.6
76.5
67.5
6
FAYEZ
6
12/1
Front-runner
81
79
91.2
74.0
65.5
7
BERRY HILL
7
8/1
Front-runner
0
0
84.4
64.5
55.5
3
LOVEDISC
3
9/2
Alternator/Stalker
78
76
87.8
71.6
58.1
10
MAYITO
10
7/2
Trailer
71
65
59.6
67.8
57.8
2
LAST JET OUT
2
20/1
Trailer
71
52
50.2
50.2
33.2
9
FIRST IN LINE
9
6/1
Alternator/Trailer
0
0
76.8
76.8
70.8
12
RAPSTOREROCKS
12
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
83
72
77.0
67.2
58.7
1
CRUMB CAKE
1
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
66.4
30.3
13.3
5
ANYWHERE ROAD
5
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
64
48
60.7
35.1
16.1
8
PROUD COUNTRY
8
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
58.8
45.5
30.5
4
SOY BORRACHO
4
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
50.6
39.3
21.8
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Will Rogers Downs - Race 6
Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) Pick 4 (.50) (Races 6-7-8-9)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 59 • Purse: $19,800 • Post: 3:45P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Class. NINETHIRTYTURBO is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NINETHIRTYTURBO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8
NINETHIRTYTURBO
2/1
4/5
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
VISIONS OF INDIANS
1
10/1
Front-runner
0
0
60.7
19.0
12.0
8
NINETHIRTYTURBO
8
2/1
Stalker
66
63
80.6
59.7
54.7
5
SHADES OF GLORY
5
5/1
Alternator/Stalker
0
0
38.4
41.8
34.3
3
EURO SUPRISE
3
7/2
Trailer
0
0
54.0
50.2
47.2
6
BUD MINISTER
6
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
0
0
6.2
23.5
16.0
7
DAYTIME WHISTLER
7
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
20.2
14.4
4.4
Unknown Running Style: MI SILVER HAZE (8/1) [Jockey: Medina Jose Angel - Trainer: Williams J Alan], BAPTISM (3/1) [Jockey: Kimes Curtis - Trainer: Dixon Tim].
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