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Wednesday, April 1: Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Picks

March 30, 2020

From Declan Schuster (Hong Kong Jockey Club)

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
Wednesday, April 1, 2020
First Post: 7:15AM ET

Race 1: #11 Exponents, #4 Aurora Steed, #7 Great Son, #3 General Trump
Race 2: #4 Good Luck Money, #9 Little Thunder, #10 Golden Mission, #2 Gracious Ryder
Race 3: #14 Master Bernini, #4 Curling Luxury, #7 Hidden Spirit, #12 Winners Brother
Race 4: #7 Excel Delight, #6 Daily Beauty, #11 Sky Treasure, #2 Goldie Flanker
Race 5: #1 Jade Fortune, #14 Super Red Dragon, #11 All For St Paul’s, #3 King’s Race
Race 6: #11 Utopia Life, #4 Wind N Grass, #8 Flying Genius, #3 Mega Heart
Race 7: #6 Red Elysees, #4 Righteous Doctrine, #11 Owners’ Star, #8 Acclaimed Light
Race 8: #3 Buddies, #13 Elite Patch, #1 Glorious Artist, #2 Dances With Dragon

Race 1: Silvermine Bay Handicap (7:15AM ET)

#11 Exponents’ last win came off a mark of 28 on a Wednesday night at Sha Tin and having now returned to that mark, it appears as though lightning is preparing to strike twice, especially with that jockey, Grant van Niekerk getting the leg up again. His best is up to this and with even luck he’s going to take a power of beating. #4 Aurora Steed has steadily improved with each outing this term. His recent dirt trial caught the eye and if he handles the surface on race day, then he’s in with a leading chance, especially with Joao Moreira up. The Brazilian ace is fresh off a Sunday five-timer at Sha Tin. #7 Great Son joined the Paul O’Sullivan stable at the start of this season and since then has looked good. Zac Purton rode a double for O’Sullivan on Sunday and their good fortune can continue here. #3 General Trump is consistent, and he warrants respect.

Race 2: Kiu Tsui Handicap (2nd Section) (7:45AM ET)

#4 Good Luck Money steps out on debut for championship leading trainer Ricky Yiu. He caught the eye in a recent trial on the dirt at Conghua, cruising up to cross the line with stablemate Team Power who has subsequently finished second last Sunday at Sha Tin. He’s worth taking a chance on in a very open Class 4 contest. #9 Little Thunder is another who has caught the eye at the trials. He led that day and is a chance to employ those tactics here on race day as he looks to offset the wide draw. #10 Golden Mission is winless. He’s mixed his form but has shown his capabilities on his day and a recent trial on the dirt suggested he handles the surface. #2 Gracious Ryder is next best.

Race 3: Tung Wan Handicap (8:15AM ET)

Tony Millard has an exceptional record with stable transfers and #14 Master Bernini looks ready to join that list. Although he’s winless across 25 starts, he has shown steady improvement, especially on the dirt and with only 116 on his back, he can take this contest out. #4 Curling Luxury is the likely leader of this. He gets the services of Zac Purton here which is a good push and as a winner on the surface previously, he rates as a leading chance. #7 Hidden Spirit is looking for back-to-back course and distance wins. He remains in Class 5 off that win which is suitable, and he maps to get the right run from gate two. #12 Winners Brother is winless, but he turned his form around last start when missing by a short head at 94/1. He’s next best if he can reproduce that effort here.

Race 4: Kiu Tsui Handicap (1st Section) (8:45AM ET)

#7 Excel Delight is a course and distance winner already this season. He narrowly missed last start and he gets an excellent chance here to atone for that performance. Joao Moreira takes the reins again and he’s drawn to get the gun run from gate two. #6 Daily Beauty has shown steady improvement across his short three-start career. He’s another who has been favoured by the draw and at his second start on the dirt, he’s expected to improve sharply. #11 Sky Treasure is a three-time course and distance winner. He’s won off this mark before and if he finds the front early, he could take plenty of running down. #2 Goldie Flanker is next best.

Race 5: Pui O Handicap (9:15AM ET)

#1 Jade Fortune steps back to Class 4 now which suits and with Zac Purton taking over he appears ready to win. He’s a Class 2 winner previously so the step back now to this grade should prove fruitful, especially off a number of solid Class 3 performances this term. #14 Super Red Dragon gets in light with only 114lb to carry from gate two. He’s drawn to get the gun run and with no weight on his back he remains a leading player. #11 All For St Paul’s is lightly raced but he has displayed plenty of ability across his short three-start career. With further improvement he can figure and he’s one who is more than likely not going to relish the added distance. #3 King’s Race has already recorded one all-the-way win this term and he’s expected to try similar here. He’ll run them along and is capable of holding on for prize money.

Race 6: Clear Water Bay Handicap (9:45AM ET)

#11 Utopia Life is unlucky not to have already won across his career but still, he gets an excellent chance to finally go on with it here. He’s drawn to get a nice run and with luck in the straight, he can deliver for Chad Schofield and Manfred Man. #4 Wind N Grass has shown steady improvement across his career and he tackles the dirt for the first time here. Suspect he handles the surface as he’s on the seven day back-up here in order to shed his maiden tag. #8 Flying Genius rarely runs a bad race and his forward style of running can ensure he’s in with a chance here. He’s drawn beautifully for Zac Purton who should be able to control the tempo and give him every chance. #3 Mega Heart has placed four times over this course and distance this season. He’s consistent and is not out of his depth against this bunch.

Race 7: Hap Mun Bay Handicap (10:15AM ET)

#6 Red Elysees narrowly missed over this course and distance two starts ago, before stepping out over 1650m to finish a close-up fifth. He’ll relish the return in trip to 1800m here and with even luck this is his to lose. #4 Righteous Doctrine is looking for back-to-back wins after ending his streak of 15 runs without a win. He’s found his groove and with Joao Moreira retaining the ride he warrants plenty of respect. #11 Owners’ Star is consistent and he hasn’t been too far away over this course and distance previously. This is suitable although still, more difficult. #8 Acclaimed Light is next best.

Race 8: Cheung Sha Handicap (10:50AM ET)

#3 Buddies ran a blinder last start on the turf and he returns to his preferred course and distance here. Joao Moreira hops up and has a three-time course and distance winner previously he rates as the one to beat, especially breaking gate three. #13 Elite Patch is a two-time dirt winner previously. He steps up in trip here which is the unknown but his last few runs have given the impression that he is ready for it and his latest trial caught the eye. Three out of #1 Glorious Artist’s four wins have come over this course and distance, each time with Zac Purton up and again this galloper warrants respect, especially in Class 2 which he is proven in. #2 Dances With Dragon bagged his first win for Caspar Fownes last start and lines up again here. He’s next best.
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Gjelstad and Norheim

Gjelstad and Norheim advise members to shop around for the best prices possible. If you can find odds equal or better to the odds listed below, you've got good value.

Nicaragua Primera Division

Chinandega v. Juventus Managua (5 p.m. ET)

Money line: Juventus Managua +110

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Juventus Managua.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Juventus Managua 1, Chinandega 0

Las Sabanas v. Real Madriz (5 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +225

Against the spread: At +0.5, back Real Madriz.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Las Sabanas 1, Real Madriz 1

Deportivo Ocotal v. ART Jalapa (6 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +230

Against the spread: At +0.5, back Jalapa.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Ocotal 1, Jalapa 1

Diriangen v. Walter Ferreti (8 p.m. ET)

Money line: Diriangen -163

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Diriangen.

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Diriangen 2, Walter Ferreti 1

Managua v. Real Esteli (9 p.m. ET)

Money line: Managua +105

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Managua.

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Managua 2, Real Esteli 1

The model is backing Diriangen (-163) at home against Walter Ferretti. The model has also revealed strong money line picks for every other match on Wednesday.
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CARMINE BIANCO

SOCCER PLAYS

NICARAGUA CLAUSURA
Game: CD WALTER FERRETI AT DIRIANGEN FC
Date/Time: Apr 1 2020 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%

Play: DIRIANGEN FC -125

Nicaragua Premier League - CD Walter Ferreti at Diriangen FC

We'll once again turn to one of only 2 leagues (Belarus the other) that are continuing their domestic leagues. There are two season's of football in Nicaragua each season, the Apertura and the Clausura (think of it as the Opener and Closer of the year). It's Round 13 of the Clausura and Diriangen were moving along nicely atop the league before back to back set backs on the road (loss/draw) saw them drop to third. They'll return home where they have been solid over the past 3 seasons of the Clausura going 20W 8D 5L and over their past 20 home games have gone 11W 3L 6D with 12 clean sheets and furthermore 4-0-1 their past 5 with clean sheets in each of those. W Ferrati picked up a big win for us on Sunday for a 2-0 day but have not faired well recently in trips to Diriamba. They've picked up 3 of a possible 15 points with their last win coming in Apetura season of 17. We'll look for the home side here on Wednesday night to get back into the win column.

Index win probabilty: Diriangen FC 58% Draw 24% CD Walter Ferreti 18%

The play is Diriangen FC -125 (3 way betting line)

Play good to -1 on the 2 way betting line.
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Zachsbets soccer play

WEDNESDAY NICARAGUA BOMB

$1500 WAGER

DIRIANGEN / FERRETTI OVER 2 (3u*) BOMB

RIDING FERRETTIS RUN OF GOALS- 16 OF THEIR LAST 18 MATCHES HAVE SEEN AT LEAST 2 GOALS

DIRIANGEN HAS BEEN GREAT AT HOME SO WE HAVE TO ASSUME THEY WILL NET AT LEAST 1 OR 2 GOALS

FERRETTI HAS SCORED IN 11 OF THEIR LAST 13 ON THE ROAD SO IF THEY CAN NET 1 WE SHOULD PUSH AT THE WORST

4 OF THE LAST 5 MEETINGS HAVE SEEN AT LEAST 2 GOALS AND THE LAST 2 MEETINGS SAW 3 AND 4 GOALS
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Al Cimaglia: April 1-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

April 1, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Cal Expo has a 10-race card set to go at 3:30 PST with the 0.20 Pick 4 beginning in Race 7. Last night the Pick 4 pool was slightly over $92,000 and it was a very chalky sequence until a 20-1 shot took the final leg. The (6-2-1-5) 0.20 ticket paid $82.82.

Tonight's sequence will have another $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

4 Joker John (6-1)-Will toss last with an interference break, usually tries hard and should be in the mix with this crew.
5-Lickcreek Speedway (5/2)-Kennedy can put this mare in play to use one big move to take control.
6-California Rock (2-1)-Consistent plus likes to win and that's a very good combo. Plano can find cover or make an early move to get the lead. Looks like a major player.

Race 8

1-King Of The Crop (6-1)-Steps-up after winning off a nice trip and is Svendsen's choice over #5. Shooting for a nice price to add some pop to the Pick 4. Might be able to top this field with a smooth trip.
2-Bunkerhill Bill (9/2)-9-year old fits with these but is basically an on the engine type and he can take that kind of trip here. Should be able to get the top and Roberts will look to control the pace.
5-Almost Cut My Hair (8-1)-Won on 3-6 with a pocket ride versus similar and could get the same trip here.
7-Pancetta (6-1)-Plano's choice over the #3 and #8 seldom wins, just 2-28 over the past 2 years. But can score against this crew with a top effort. Plano beat cheaper on 3-6, he knows how to work the right trip to take another photo.

Race 9

1-Bettor In The Bank (2-1)-Comes off a nice win and is back in at the same class. 10-year-old has won 24 of 62 CalX starts and should be bet hard. Looks like a player but is trip dependent.
2-Mystery Dragon (4-1)-Even effort in last when dropped to this level. Looking for better and will respect the Roland-Q. Schneider combo.
6-Mister Hat (4-1)-Mister cashes checks but doesn't like to win. This is a significant drop-in class and best to respect tonight.

Race 10

1-Custards Dungeon (5/2)-Odds-on favorite comes off a win last weekend at this class and now draws the rail. Looks like a serious threat and should be bet hard again.
3-Therealgoods (3-1)-Won 4-back and lost last 3 by 1-length or less at this level. Beaten chalk should be right there again.
8-My Muddy Buddy (6-1)-Roberts sticks, and this is a more comfortable spot. Hasn't won since 1-11 but that was against similar. Could do the same here if brings a top try.

0.20 Pick 4

4,5,6/1,2,5,7/1,2,6/1,3,8
Total Bet=$21.60
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Purrs Again Lifetime maiden is 0-for-24, so you know to tread lightly here, but he's really picked his game up in his two starts here this winter, drew perfectly, and most important of all, meets no one here he's supposed to be scared of; finally his time.
#3 American Driven Lightly raced runner added Lasix last time and was a solid 3rd, after a bit of trouble too, has a ton of upside off just three starts, which is more than most can say here, is another who drew well, and will be a square price too; big chance.
#5 Old Fort Deep closer beat 'Driven last time, so clearly he's a player here, but his lack of speed is a real worry, as he's at the mercy of the pace, and will likely have to pass them all, which is not ideal when you're 0-for-15; using underneath only.
Race Summary Obviously you need to tread lightly when talking about a lifetime 0-for-24 maiden, but he seems like a new horse here, and his tactical speed is going to play well too, plus he'll be a better price than his main rivals, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, because, as dad said, water always finds it's level, and this one might have finally found his.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#7 Cliffy Intriguing firster goes for a Dini barn that routinely brings a well-meant debut runner to Saratoga, so this is a barn that knows the score, and note Camacho is here, and he's 6-for-18 riding for this barn at the meet; thinking this one can run some.
#1 Ponzan Pace player just missed when a 2nd at the level last time going 7Fs, so this slight cutback could work here, as this is a demanding distance but there's some foundation here, not to mention his overall dirt form is best here; looms the one to beat.
#3 Mozano Tricky read is the ML favorite and probably wins this with either of his last two, but those were against slightly lesser, so he has to step up in class, so at underlaid odds there's reason to think he could falter here; very scary, but there are hurdles.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 7, as you'd like to see him taking a lot more action that this 12-1 ML would suggest, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, and in the early Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, even though this is a group there for the taking, and he goes for a barn that is very underrated in this type of spot.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6
Picks Notes
#3 Calypso Key Class dropper really woke up last time with a close 5th, still has upside off just five starts, meets an extremely weak group, and needs only reproduce that last run to beat these; too good.
#9 Marchenwald ML favorite got back to the turf and was 2nd, just beaten a neck, at the level last time, so he's the main danger here, but the wide draw and possible bounce are concerns; second-best.
#10 Dakota Beach Logical contender makes the often pivotal third start of his form cycle and was a clear, albeit very distant, 2nd last time at the level, though he needs to run faster here; mixed signals here.
Race Summary That 4-1 ML seems very fair on the 3, who will like the drop in class and seems to be coming up to a lifetime best run, so play him in all the slots at 3-1 or better, while using him in the Pk5 and late Pk4 as well, since there are others who will get played here, even though it's the pick who looks like he's getting all the best of it.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#5 Criminal Didn't fire on the turf in the comeback run at Sam Houston, but the back dirt form fits really well here. Would take the 3/1 ML price.
#2 Rookie Season Most likely winner just ran off the screen with cheaper last time out, and the three best races of his lifetime have come over the local strip. Price will be prohibitive, and there is at least some chance he doesn't run back to that.
#3 Covington Quality Looks best of the rest with a decent allowance try at Remington under his belt to end the year, and if he can fire off the layoff he'd be in line for a piece of this.
Race Summary Criminal is capable of something better than he showed on the turf last out, and if the favorite doesn't fire his A+ shot, this one may be there to take advantage.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Seynatawnee Solid run off the bench might set her up for better on the move around two turns, and her tactical speed should keep her in the mix early.
#3 Magic in Motion Gp Has been on a tear for Broberg and will be a short price here, and there is a small chance that the pace gets honest enough to leave her vulnerable.
#6 Soaring Now Spying type should be in line for a good go today, and that Fair Grounds form looks plenty competitive with this bunch. Would want this one on my tickeets.
Race Summary Seynatawnee is worth a little price look. The sprint comeback was solid, and she owns a couple of decent back route races that feel like they might prove competitive here.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#11 Plenty of Munny No match for the runaway winner last out, but she drops again for this one and has enough pace to find a spot from the high draw.
#1 Luneaction Showed some pace on the sloppy track before stopping badly in the debut, but she may fare better with that race under her belt. Rail draw is no bargain for her speed, but the price will be right.
#9 Our Lizzy Lou Running lines aren't much to look at, but she has been in with better on major circuits through her entire career, so it wouldn't be any surprise to see her get home here.
Race Summary Plenty of Munny should get a pretty good run from close range, as he's fast enough to overcome the wide post. Quincy Be Quik can win this, too, but something tells me he might be an overbet trap horse.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Cal-Expo - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 SOULDUST Invader appears good fit for high-percentage barn.
#2 MARYS PRETTY GIRL Three wins and a second in March at this level.
#5 JUNE MORNING Failed to sustain first-over bid, value remains.
Race Summary British Columbia invader Souldust was off the gate at the start, trailed in a single-file alignment for more than a half mile and finished willingly in mid-track while no threat to a streaking, odds-on winner. The barn wins at 25 percent, so try 6-1 and 6-2 exactas.

Cal-Expo - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 CENALTA DIESEL Price stab in field that is a combined 0-for-85 this year.
#4 GENE EUGENE Backed up on sloooow track, starts rested, Kennedy’s choice over top one.
#1 IMMA TANK Chased longshot, overhauled by deep closers, starts from rail.
Race Summary Cenalta Diesel, in range of the leaders after a :56.3 middle half, is worth a price stab in a field loaded with runners returning on 2- or 3-day rest. Play a 1-4-7 exacta box.

Cal-Expo - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 BUNKERHILL BILL Piling up the checks at age 9, overdue for another win.
#5 ALMOST CUT MY HAIR Troubled trip as beaten favorite, loves to win.
#7 PANCETTA Gets pace to run at, re-united with Plano, use on exotic tickets.
Race Summary Bunkerhill Bill is fast, game, ultra-consistent and starting from a more favorable post. Give him the nod at 9-2 in his bid for a 30th career victory. Play 2-5 and 2-7 exactas.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 Californiasummer After being unplaced in the Bold Accent Stakes, she finished with interest and was 4th for a claiming price; she gets six furlongs today and jockey Erik McNeil, who has done well lately, should have her moving well at the end.
#2 Irish Contessa Wound up in lower claiming races after running an allowance and stakes races last year; won the Pepsi Stakes here last year and can press early here. Fits.
#7 Heaven's Creation Sprinted away for an easy win last out and probably benefit from racing over the winter in Louisiana; a forward factor throughout.
Race Summary Californiasummer gets to stretch out today and gets a hot pace to chase; cold be rolling late.

Fonner Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#2 Possibly in Love Has a win and a 2nd in two career starts, both at this meet; should have no problem stretching out to two turns.
#6 Shade of Justice Has been in some good races and ran evenly in the muddy last time out; can track the top choice andcould give it a go late.
#9 Active Merry Made a decent last run last time and can get her number on the board here.
Race Summary Possibly in Love was sharp in her two races and has a great chance to lead for every stride of this one.

Fonner Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Thetrashmanscoming Was in some outstanding races last year, ships in from Oaklawn and can get a form reversal in this one.
#2 Phlash Drive Stablemate of the top choice is perfect in four starts and gets his 1st chance to stretch out to a mile; very quick and he would not be a big surprise.
#1 Mr. Tickle Has won six of his last seven and was a tremendous $5,000 claim by owner-trainer Marissa Black last August. Will be rolling late.
Race Summary Thetrashmanscoming was outrun in some top-notch races and has a good chance to show some late run here.
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Bob Weir

Tampa Bay Downs

Late Pick 4 on Wednesday begins at 3:30 p.m. ET with Race 5 and ends with Race 8.

Tampa Bay Downs 5th
5 One Fine Ride (8-1)
This 7-year-old gelding is one of the more accomplished horses in this low-level claimer. He has now had back-to-back poor races. He was claimed two starts back by 26 percent trainer Jose Delgado and tried a two-turn route at Tampa, something he has never been successful at. He has predominantly been a longer-sprint, one-turn horse. Today's six-furlong distance may be a touch short for him, but the competition is not that tough.

8 I'm a Cool Man (12-1)
Will need to show speed to have any chance. Last time out he took a pretty good bump out of the gate and was squeezed back. If you can forgive that, his previous races put him in contention.

11 Perp (5-1)
Was claimed two starts back by 18 percent trainer Nick Caruso. Improved in straight $6,250 claimer and now drops to a $5,000 conditioned claimer. Could be compromised by post position, but has a shot if able to work out a trip.

12 Game Day Drama (9-2)
Has a similar pattern as Perp (finished third to Perp's second in the last race). Usually shows more speed than he did last time, and I expect to see him pushed here to gain position coming out of the 12 hole.

6 Never Have I Ever (5-2)
Takes a big drop and tries dirt for the second time. His lone try was not promising, but he did stumble out of the gate and show speed before stopping on the turn. I will take a stand against him at the expected price and only use him as a backup. If there are scratches, this would be the first horse to elevate to the "A" level.

Backup (or "B") horses will be 9 Jrock (12-1), who's returning to dirt after little success on the Turfway Park polytrack, and 10 Sent From Heaven (6-1), who has primarily raced on turf and synthetic; three of his last four races are in the vicinity of what's needed here.

A: 5,8,11,12
B: 6,9,10

Tampa Bay Downs 6th
3 Calypso Key (4-1)
I liked Calypso Key in a similar race last week, but she ended up scratching. On Wednesday she still looks like a fit. Her last race was her best yet. It was a reversal of tactics as this 5-year-old mare closed for the first time after repeatedly showing early pace and stopping. Hard to love, but the last effort was something new, and she now drops a level. Might be ready for her best yet.

9 Marchenwald (5-2)
Is now 0-for-14 and 0-for-6 on the turf. Her last race was probably her best, and a repeat gives her a shot to finally break her maiden.

10 Dakota Beach (7-2)
This 3-year-old has now run two competitive races. Has improved from 2 to 3 but still will need some breaks from this post. Dakota Beach will be a "B", but move up to the "A" level in case of a scratch.

I will also include 5 Cosi Momosi (15-1), 7 Foot Rub Love (20-1) and 8 Goneasagirlcanget (8-1) as backups. All are 3-year-olds and have not proven to be consistent losers on the turf as others in here have.

A: 3,9
B: 5,7,8,10,13 (AE)

Tampa Bay Downs 7th
3 Carmichael (6-1)
Returns as a 3-year-old following a lone start at 2 in a Keeneland maiden special weight race won by Wells Bayou (winner of the recent Louisiana Derby). Carmichael started slow in that race, made a wide move on the turn and raced on to the finish. With natural progression from 2 to 3, his Beyer speed figure from the last race looks good relative to the rest of this field.

7 Sense of Justice (7-2)
Similar to Carmichael, this Godolphin-owned horse returns after a long layoff. (His lone start came at 4½ furlongs at Parx in July). Ran hard after getting away a little slow. Has had three straight five-furlong works and could be a good thing.

1 Sky Mischief (3-1)
Is the lone horse with recent competitive form. If the return horses don't fire, he is likely. I will take a shot that one of the top two choices comes back strong and will use Sky Mischief only in a backup role.

A: 3,7
B: 1

Tampa Bay Downs 8th
6 Our Country (2-1)
Is the obvious and deserving favorite. After winning his maiden at Saratoga, he tried three successive graded stakes races, finishing within three lengths in all. Considering his results, Wednesday's return in an allowance race to move through his conditions and regain confidence makes sense. His connections will try to use this as a springboard for future 3-year-old stakes. Assuming he has progressed at all, he is a very likely winner.

2 Bitcoin Passion (9-2)
Won his first race for the red-hot Christophe Clement. He needs to improve, but he's been given two months since his winning race. Visually, his win was a little better than the final figure and time indicate. I will take the positive impression and think he might be poised to win if Our Country does not come back with his best effort.

Both 4 Alley Oop Johnny (5-1) and 7 Me and Mr. C (5-1) will be backups. They have both run competitive races in non-graded stakes and fit Wednesday's race.

A: 2,6
B: 4,7

Wagers
All-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 5,8,11,12 with 4,9 with 3,7 with 2,6 ($32)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 6,9,10 with 4,9 with 3,7 with 2,6 ($12)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,8,11,12 with 5,7,8,10,13 with 3,7 with 2,6 ($40)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,8,11,12 with 4,9 with 1 with 2,6 ($8)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,8,11,12 with 4,9 with 3,7 with 4,7 ($16)

Total: $108
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Jonathon Kinchen

Late Pick 4 at Will Rogers Downs begins with Race 7 at 5:15 p.m. ET and ends with Race 10.

Will Rogers Downs 7th
2 Dial Em In (5-2)
Comes back off a win in just 15 days and does so for hot trainer Robertino Diodoro, who has won at 30 percent over the last year coming back between 11 and 19 days. The race doesn't seem to have a ton of pace, and that is why we will use the other Diodoro as well.

5 Very Boisterous (7-2)
Pace figures suggest this one could be close to the front in a race that doesn't seem to have much pace. With Diodoro having two in the race, I would assume this one would be sent along while Dial Em In will do her running late. Comparing class levels from track to track can be tough, but this is definitely a drop in class for Very Boisterous. Diodoro calling the shots is another positive.

4 Royal Soprano (3-1)
Comes in off a layoff, but that could be a good thing in this paceless race; fresh horses usually like to run early. This filly's pace figures suggest she is the most likely to end up on the lead, but we need to see what Very Boisterous does.

A: 2,5
B: 4

Will Rogers Downs 8th
2 Save the Day (8-1)
Two simple facts: One, this one is trained by Scott Young, who is winning at 40 percent at the meet. Two, Save the Day was entered for $30,000 at Fair Grounds and scratched, and now she is in for $15,000.

3 Quincy Be Quik (3-1)
This one's first race against maiden special weight company makes her live for this race. The second race and the layoff cause concern, but this is such a big drop in class.

11 Plenty of Munny (7-2)
This one has some early speed. Ran for $25,000 last time at Sam Houston but now drops in for $15,000 second off the layoff. I'm hoping this one has a little more in the tank when they turn for home.

9 Our Lizzy Lou (5-1)
I hated the last race going two turns in the mud but loved the sprint race two starts back. Not sure which filly we get, but I am forgiving her last race based on the distance.

A: 2,3,11
B: 9

Will Rogers Downs 9th
3 Blue Bomber (7-2)
The race conditions are important when handicapping a race. How and why does Blue Bomber get to run in this race? Horses in this race are either for sale for $5,000 or they have run for $5,000 in 2019-2020. In these spots you want to find a horse who is much better than the qualification requirements and just snuck in. Blue Bomber is that horse. He won by five lengths in a $5,000 claimer back in May 2019, and who was his trainer then? Diodoro. Single.

A: 3
B: None

Will Rogers Downs 10th
1 Sensing Mischief (8-1)
This is definitely my first 8-1 morning-line single I have ever given out on SportsLine. Singling horses like this is feast or famine, but I have a very compelling argument. This 3-year-old filly was less than 2-1 in each of her first three starts. When lightly raced horses are bet heavily it's because they have shown ability in their morning workouts. Pedigree, trainer stats and jockey are not enough to make a horse less than 2-1 without good works in the morning. In September, when she ended up at this distance facing maiden claimers, she won by open lengths with a figure that would handle Wednesday's field with ease. She came back facing winners where she showed speed and faded but still had a good final figure. On March 17 she showed up at Will Rogers off an 82-day break and ran poorly but on a muddy track. I love the rail draw for horses with speed because it usually gives the rider only one option: Send to the front!

A: 1
B: 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11

Wagers
All-A ticket
$10 Pick 4: 2,5 with 2,3,11 with 3 with 1 ($60)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$3 Pick 4: 4 with 2,3,11 with 3 with 1 ($9)
$3 Pick 4: 2,5 with 9 with 3 with 1 ($6)
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5 with 2,3,11 with 3 with 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 ($30)

Total wager: $105
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Paul Leiner

Horse Pick 4/1" We hit the exacta and Dakoma Rose came in 3rd. Today I have a pick from Tampa Bay Downs.

Race 6 Tampa Bay Downs
$10 win/place/show #8 Goneasagirlcanget
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9350 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 VERY BOISTEROUS 7/2

# 4 ROYAL SOPRANO 3/1

# 2 DIAL EM IN 5/2

VERY BOISTEROUS is the top bet in this race. Tough to pass on this filly with Eikleberry in the irons. A solid 72 avg class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this field. She has been running admirably and the speed figures are among the top in this group of horses in this race. ROYAL SOPRANO - Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figs of this field in her last outing. Has posted formidable Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races in the past. DIAL EM IN - Has formidable Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this competition. Strong gains have been scored by gamblers using this jock and handler tandem as of late.
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs
PURCHASE

04/01/20, TAM, Race 5, 2.30 ET
04/01/20,TAM,5,6F [Dirt] 1:08:03 CLAIMING. Purse $9,000. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 1. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $5,000.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.00 7 Greeley's Farewell 10-1 Alencar W Ferraro M. Anthony SW 42.86 1.12/$1
099.58 8 I'm a Cool Man 12-1 Martinez W Hernandez. Jr. Sandino 32.52 1.09/$1
098.16 10 Sent From Heaven 6-1 Garcia J A Simms John 32.52 1.09/$1
097.31 6 Never Have I Ever (IRE) 5/2 Gallardo A A Rivelli Larry JTE 32.52 1.09/$1
096.83 4 Sum Overture 12-1 Allen. Jr. R D House Gary F. 32.52 1.09/$1
095.84 12 Game Day Drama 9/2 Mena R Vaccarezza Carlo F 32.52 1.09/$1
095.58 5 One Fine Ride 8-1 Mawing L Delgado Jose H. C 32.52 1.09/$1
094.53 2 Fielding Gold(b-) 30-1 Jurado E Johnson Jennifer A. 32.52 1.09/$1
094.39 11 Perp 5-1 Garcia W A Caruso Nick Joseph 32.52 1.09/$1
093.80 9 Jrock 12-1 Leon J A Guciardo Kathleen A. 32.52 1.09/$1
093.32 3 Red Rose Cat 20-1 Ferrer J C Yanez Moises R. L 32.52 1.09/$1
092.69 1 Wanna Salsa 30-1 Mendez K Burns Patty A. 32.52 1.09/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 41.38, ROI 1.34/$1
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