Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 7/9/20
Rick Gehman
Last week's recap
Not a single bet was won last week, the first time that I can type those words this season. Plenty of our horses were in contention, including Viktor Hovland (win & top 5) finishing 12th and Wesley Bryan (top 20) finishing 21st, but you don't get credit for only being in contention. The Rocket Mortgage Classic found us down 5.84 units, bringing our season total down to plus-32.70 units. Over the last nine tournaments, we are up 39.7 units.
Event preview
This week begins an incredibly rare situation. The first of two straight weeks at the same course! This week will be the Workday Charity Open and next week will be The Memorial, both played at Muirfield Village Golf Club. The Workday Charity Open is technically a new event and replaced the John Deere Classic after that event was cancelled. We will use course history from The Memorial to shine some light on potential runners.
Winner - Patrick Cantlay (+1400) - 0.65 units
Top 10 - Patrick Cantlay (+185) - 0.65 units
Cantlay will enter next week as the defending champion of the Memorial but that shouldn't stop him from finding success this week on a course he loves. He has the win last year to go along with his 4th-place finish in 2018 and his 35th in 2017. Cantlay has been quiet, not playing much golf, but proves steady in every start. He finished 11th at the Travelers, his only event since the restart, and he gains strokes in all four major categories.
Winner - Justin Rose (+2500) - 0.50 units
Top 5 - Justin Rose (+600) - 0.80 units
Rose, now back with his trusty Taylormade clubs, has been a completely different player since the restart. His tee-to-green game is reminiscent of when he was the #1 player in the world back in 2018, and he doesn't have a finish worse than 13th in his last three trips to Muirfield Village.
Winner - Kevin Streelman (+6600) - 0.38 units
Top 10 - Kevin Streelman (+600) - 0.50 units
Streelman flashed his upside with a second-place finish at the Travelers Championship, his last start on TOUR. Now he goes back to Muirfield Village, a course with plenty of good vibes. Streelman finished 4th last year at the Memorial, marking his fourth Top-20 finish at the event in the last five years.
Top 10 - Cameron Champ (+750) - 0.40 units
Champ's two starts since the TOUR has returned are filled with things to love. He has a Top 15 finish in both and his statistical profile is off the charts. He's gaining strokes tee-to-green and a hot putter could push him over the edge.
Top 20 - Lanto Griffin (+500) - 0.60 units
Griffin missed out on a Top 20 by one shot last week, but has a Top 25 in each of his last two starts. He's perpetually undervalued by Bookmakers considering he's ranked #84 in the world, already a winner this season and has nine Top 20s this season.
Tournament Matchup - Joaquin Niemann (+110) over Gary Woodland (-130) - 1 unit
I don't normally like betting matchups with such volatile golfers like Niemann, but this is more of a play against Woodland. Woodland's weapon, his driver, has been non-existent since the restart. He's lost 9.19 strokes off-the-tee in his last three events and without that skill, he becomes very pedestrian.
Tournament Prop - Gary Woodland To Miss The Cut (+200) - 0.75 units
You know the drill - Woodland's our target this week as he's in the midst of his worst stretch in years. Additionally, this event will feature a full field of 156 with only the Top 65 and ties making the cut. There's very little wiggle room for error.
Here are the top 20 in Gehman's rankings for the Workday Charity Open:
#1 Justin Thomas
Coming off an uncharacteristic MC at the Travelers Championship, Thomas will look to notch another Top 10 at Muirfield Village. He finished 8th in 2018 and 4th in 2017 at The Memorial. He leads the field in Strokes Gained and has two Top 10s since the restar so there's no reason to panic from last week.
#2 Jon Rahm
It's been a slow restart for Rahm who missed the cut at Colonial and finished in the 30s at both the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship. There were some encouraging signs at Travelers, gaining strokes tee-to-green in all but one round.
#3 Brooks Koepka
All the trends for Koepka are pointing in the right direction. His off-the-tee game at RBC Heritage was absolutely elite and what we would expect from Koepka. It turned into a 7th place finish, his best result since the TOUR Championship.
#4 Justin Rose
Despite the missed cut at the Travelers Championship, Rose has looked like a completely different player since the restart. He's been excellent in nearly every facet, which led to a T3 at Colonial and a T14 at Harbour Town. Playing The Memorial, Rose doesn't have a finish worse than 13th in his last three trips.
#5 Viktor Hovland
Hovland is proving that he's not only one of the game's best young players but one of the game's best players, period. He's returned four Top 25 finishes in the restart including a T12 last week at Detroit Golf Club.
#6 Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay offers excellent history at Muirfield Village, winning The Memorial in 2019 and finishing 4th in 2018. He's only played once since the restart and it was a solid 11th place at the Travelers Championship.
#7 Xander Schauffele
It's been a mixed bag of results for Schauffele since the restart. His high profile lip-out at Colonial dropped him to a 3rd place finish. He competed well at the Travelers Championship, finishing 20th. He lost the putter on the weekend (losing 2.99 shots) but the rest of his game was sublime.
#8 Collin Morikawa
Speaking of high profile lip outs, Morikawa had his own in the playoff at Colonial and has struggled since. It was a T64 at Harbour Town before the first missed cut of his career at the Travelers Championship. He took some much need rest last week, giving him an opportunity to reset.
#9 Sungjae Im
The TOUR shutdown negatively impacted Im more than most. He was scorching before the break and hasn't been able to put it together since. He's still one of the most talented players on TOUR and ranks 15th in Strokes Gained.
#10 Hideki Matsuyama
Matusyama's 65 on Saturday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic is the perfect example of how low he can go. Few players offer that elite upside and he's notched three Top 15 finishes in the last five years at The Memorial. But it's all about consistency with him. Yes he shot a 65 on Saturday but had two other rounds over 70. He's still one of the worst putters on tour and instills very little confidence on a weekly basis.
#11 Patrick Reed
A missed cut last week for Reed is not concerning at all, because that's exactly the type of player he is. He will miss cuts as evidenced by last week and the RBC Heritage but he will contend with winning upside as evidenced by his 7th at Colonial and his victory at the WGC Mexico.
#12 Rickie Fowler
Fowler is in the midst of going through well documented swing changes which can always take time to figure out. Last week's T12 finish provided plenty of reason to be optimistic moving forward. His last three trips to Muirfield Village have yielded finishes of 14th, 8th and 2nd.
#13 Gary Woodland
I'm worried about the lack of consistency for Woodland in the restart. He opened with a Top 10 at Colonial then backed it up with a 62nd at Harbour Town and a missed cut at TPC River Highlands. However, being one the best ballstrikers in the field is always a positive.
#14 Matthew Wolff
One could argue that finishing 2nd after starting the final round with a three-shot lead is a failure, but it might not have mattered what Wolff shot, DeChambeau was going to chase him down at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It was his best finish in nearly a year.
#15 Joel Dahmen
Dahmen took the week off in Detroit which is about the only thing that can stop him from finishing in the Top 20 right now. He has five such finishes in his last six starts.
#16 Kevin Streelman
Streelman flashed that massive upside with the 2nd place finish at the Travelers Championship, his second runner-up finish in six starts. His record at The Memorial includes a 4th place finish last year and three more Top 20s since 2015.
#17 Matt Kuchar
Kuchar hasn't played well since the restart, but few golfers can match his history at Muirfield Village. He won in 2013 and has seven Top 10s in his 14 career starts.
#18 Marc Leishman
He's only missed one cut in eleven career trips to Muirfield Village including his 5th place finish at The Memorial last season. Leishman is never a safe option, but his win at Torrey Pines shows that he retains plenty of win equity.
#19 Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick is almost boring with how consistent his results are. It was a missed cut at the Travelers that ended a 20 event stretch of making the weekend. He's likely to finish somewhere between 20th and 40th but being able to count on that can be comforting.
#20 Harold Varner III
We've seen flashes of brilliance from Varner this season, it's just about putting it all together for four rounds. He's gained at least five strokes on Approach in half of the four events since the restart which is a very good sign moving forward.
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Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/09/20
July 9, 2020
JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 9, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
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BELMONT PARK – 7th RACE. POST TIME: 4:32 ET
3 – On Base (5-1)
Was entered and scratched out of last week’s Kent Stakes at Delaware Park and instead surfaces in this more realistic first-level allowance race in his first outing in more than four months following an impressive Tampa Bay Downs maiden win at this nine furlong trip. The 3-year-old son of Empire Maker didn’t show much in his debut but left that form far behind when adding blinkers, display good tactical speed, and then pulverizing his foes in the final furlong despite racing a bit green and erratic. There’s no doubt that the natural talent is there, and as he gains experience this J. Thomas-trained colt could be more than just okay. At 5-1 on the morning line we’ll gamble that he’s progressed sufficiently to handle this more difficult assignment.
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KEENELAND – 8th RACE. POST TIME: 4:57 ET
4 – Mom’s Red Lipstick (15-1)
Tackles older rivals in her 3-year-old debut in a difficult and contentious second-level allowance sprint but has a touch of real quality and probably is better than her morning line of 15-1 gives her credit for. The daughter of Race Day was miles the best in her debut win last summer at Arlington Park and then captured the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes impressively before concluding her juvenile campaign with good runner-up effort in the Glorious Song Stakes despite a less-than-ideal trip. She makes her first start over conventional dirt after a recent bullet drill at Churchill Downs (:46 1/5 fastest of 97), so we’ll assume she’ll handle the main track just fine. We know she can fire fresh and the gamble is that she’s grown up and matured in her first outing in eight months. We’ll take a shot.
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Belmont Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Madam Deputy Cox firster (15%) lures Castellano and is by hot young sire Constitution, has a slew of works showing for this, and meets two sketchy MSW dropping favorites; call to come out running.
#7 Belleza MSW miss hasn't been out since a distant 2nd to a repeat winner in Nov., so the layoff and the fact she's in for a tag off of it isn't a great sign, plus she'll be overbet; underlaid contender.
#5 Allure Fortune The other MSW dropper was a decent 3rd on debut in Sept. then returned last month and was awful, so sure, the drop works, but yikes, she didn't do any running off the break; no thanks.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 6, as you want to see her live and taking money, and if that's the case it's a great sign, since the two favorites don't inspire and have some serious knocks, and so you can play the pick in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.
Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Simply Sweet Mott firster (10%) is out of BC Juvenile Fillies winner Sweet Catomine, so there's a serious pedigree here, and that 6/29 bullet work sure says she can run, which is something the proven gals haven't really shown in spaced; look out.
#6 Back Channel ML favorite was a distant 2nd on debut for Rice, who never cranks them and is 26% with second-out maidens, so you know she's firing today, but it's not like the debut was any great shakes, plus she'll be overbet too; second-best.
#10 Harlem Heights Phipps homebred has a big pedigree herself and showed a bit of talent in a pair of 2yo starts, but that Oct. layoff is a worry, especially since you can surmise has a bullet circled on Saratoga for the serious run; tabbing for next time.
Race Summary We've got another tote tab here, as the 6 is supposed to be at or even below this 6-1 ML, and if that's the case play her in all the slots, and especially to in the early Pk5 (tab the DD from R5 into this one), and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as she could fall through the wagering cracks a bit, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.
Belmont Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 On Base Rousing MSW winner added blinkers and that sure did the trick in his second start at Tampa, and while these are the big boys here, he fits on paper, has a world of upside, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#5 No Word The chalk for Pletcher was a good 3rd to a potential Brown star last time, and a repeat wins this, but the cutback could hinder his chances, as his shorter runs weren't as solid as that 1 1/4-mile effort last time; still, plenty scary.
#1 Sharocket Local MSW winner finally got over the hump last time, and while taking on winners is never easy, he has some confidence now after so many nibbles, and that can often be a springboard to another big run; looms in the mix.
Race Summary You should get fair value on the 3, and you need it too, as this is a significant rise in class, but he tipped his hand last time and should be able to build on that sterling run, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win in this deep field would add plenty of value to both sequences.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Emerald Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Bearcreek Mountain Finished with some energy in the comeback run, and if he's able to move forward off that one, he's right there tonight.
#3 Balius Ran okay locally in the debut and then held his own against some better groups at Golden Gate. Looks like the one to beat, but not sure he has to win this.
#7 Hard to Deny Blinkers go on for this one after a couple of really even kinds of runs. The addition of the blinkers might be enough to get him in the mix a bit earlier.
Race Summary Bearcreek Mountain rallied nicely in that comeback run, and he has a bit of upside with that recent start under his belt in a spot where his main competition will be running off the bench.
Emerald Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Code Charlie Draws better than his main pace rival, and he should be breathing down that guy's neck from the start. Maiden win here was solid, and he was in too deep last time out.
#4 Tiz Manny Finisher owns solid local performances from last year, and the hope here is that he'll get a decent pace from the two forward players in this easier spot.
#2 Violent Behavior Reliable type usually shows up, but he's still 1-for-17 and hasn't been a serious win threat late in his last few races. Beat him to cash, but he'll get bet.
Race Summary Code Charlie might get a little overlooked with the other two listed here likely to take their share of cash, and the hops it that he'll put away the other pace early on and find something left to hold off the Golden Gate shippers.
Emerald Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Sunshine Emily Must overcome the layoff here, but she has been a huge handful when facing claiming company in her career, and the overall form is better than it looks with a trio of tries with better clouding the form.
#2 Fortune's Freude Form can be hit or miss, and though she has done most of her good work going long, she owns some decent sprint races would make her competitive here.
#7 Guardian One Has been in with much better than this for quite some time, so she's a player on the drop with some solid back sprint races to her credit.
Race Summary Tough race. Sunshine Emily has speed off the bench, and the hope is that she'll run them off their feet. She has been very tough at this kind of level in the past and goes for a barn off to a hot start.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 WISENHEIMER Chased odds-on, co-favorites at notch above, one to beat.
#6 IZOH Sustained first-over rally to beat lesser after six months away.
#3 APLOMB HANOVER Drops, starts from better spot in third start of cycle.
Race Summary Wisenheimer followed a pair of 4-to-5 shots around the track while saving ground and got caught late for third. He gets class relief, draws the rail and seeks his 35th victory. Play 1-3 and 1-6 exactas.
Yonkers - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 AMATEUR HOUR Benefits from return, draws rail in weak field, no excuses today.
#7 ROCK N ROLL ROSIE Invader starts fresh, trying to recapture 2019 form (41/7-9-5).
#5 LINE DANCER Led clear, held second at this level early in the year at Yonkers.
Race Summary Amateur Hour is 2-51 the last two years, but she has a recent race over the strip, takes a class drop and should be forwardly placed from the rail in a field that is a combined 4-66 this year. Play 1-5 and 1-7 exactas.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#10 SABINE PASS Can upset if he minds his manners, poor post offset by inflated price.
#8 THE REV Lost contact with 2-1 winner through :27 final quarter as the favorite.
#1 MARTY MONKHOUSER Led until late at half-mile track, will be underlay.
Race Summary Probably a week early on Sabine Pass with post 10 starting spot; however, his price will be good and he finished a willing third last week despite racing a bit erratically early and being parked by the favorite. Play a 1-8-10 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 Cash for Gold Is perfect in two starts, each at a sprint, and he's on the front end and from well off the pace; likely to grasp onto the mile distance and can finish well vs. these.
#1 Twobirdsonestone Made up considerable ground going short in his 1st of the year and will welcome the two turns of this one; capable of strong rally.
#5 Slovak Power Won going two turns in his finale of 2019 and was a good 3rd in a sprint in his 1st of the year; can be close-up throughout and will have a good opportunity to be in front turning for home.
Race Summary Cash for Gold has sprinted clear late in both starts, each against Indiana-breds; looks like he could develop into a standout in restricted races and can continue to advance through his conditions.
Indiana Grand - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Sista of War Pressed the pace and tired in his 1st of the year, which came at Churchill Downs; has been with some outstanding rivals and can excel in her 1st Indiana Grand appearance.
#7 Liraz Set the early pace and gave way in her debut at Gulfstream; goes with blinkers off and Cox barn is always worth a look.
#6 Bee House Ran evenly in his only start, which came at Kentucky Downs last year; bred for the grass and can be a strong player throughout.
Race Summary Sista of War has the speed to get into good position and has the experience to take on all comers here; likely to dig in during her 1st local visit.
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes
#6 Betcha Ran well in stakes races last year and opened her season with a 2nd; capable of a stalking run today and can improve in her return.
#10 Sandy's Newsgirl Crushed stakes rivals last time as she was able to lead comfortably throughout; likely to get more pressure in this one but a repeat win would not be a surprise.
#1 Real Deputee Was a well-beaten 3rd running longer on turf and can improve in her return to dirt; was an easy maiden winner three races back and fits here at a price.
Race Summary Betcha ran a solid 2nd in her 1st of the year, has the chance to close follow the leaders and can make an impact late.
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