Bob Weir
Gulfstream Park's late Pick 4 on Saturday begins at 4:54 p.m. ET with Race 10 and ends with Race 13.
Nailed the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park the last two days, hitting for $827.65 on Thursday and $394.65 on Friday.
Gulfstream Park 10th (4:54 p.m. ET)
3 Good Credence (10-1)
Has competitive figures. The key difference is those figures were earned as a 2-year-old. With any growth or improvement, this filly could be a winner. The main concern is she was entered on Friday at a mile and scratched. The Friday race looked tougher on paper, but I'm a little concerned in the switch to six furlongs. Almost a single but definitely an "A" horse.
5 Wanderlust (9-2)
Is a little soft on Beyer Speed Figures, but this race could set up for an off-the-pace type. Her first race at Tampa Bay Downs fits this field style-wise, and that race has proven productive with three next-out winners. I'll forgive the last as she was on a fast pace and stopped. Change in tactics required.
6 Chart (4-1)
Great first race before trying the Grade 2 Davona Dale when she finished up the track. Was on the rail and was in tight most of that race. Stopped on turn and was not persevered with. Assuming there are no issues out of that last start, she's in the mix with a return to her debut race.
1 Boerne (7-2)
7 Lastchanceforlove (3-1)
Both won their debuts with wire-to-wire runs. I'm not convinced they can repeat here, but if one breaks poorly and the other clears, there is a chance. Will use both as "B" selections.
A: 3,5,6
B: 1,7
Gulfstream Park 11th (5:24 p.m. ET)
10 Battle of Blenheim (9-5)
Hard to find fault in this one. Won his last two races. The only concern might be the drop back to a $35,000 claiming race off the win, but I'm not as concerned right now with class drops. Logical win candidate.
8 Conviction Trade (15-1)
Has been running on the fringes against better. Gets a short layoff but has trained consistently over the last month. I think he fits here.
Also-eligible: 14 Souper Scat Daddy (6-1)
I don't love the post, but if he draws in from the also-eligible list he's a must-use. Has also been facing better. Runs hard every time.
4 Supreme Aura (6-1)
Has no real turf form to speak of, but it's an interesting move by a solid trainer (David Fawkes). Has turf breeding and is in good form. Claimed out of a win at essentially this level, given two months off and now returns on the turf with Paco Lopez up (trainer-jockey combo winning at 29 percent).
1 Sublime Appeal (10-1)
Horse has now run three straight solid turf races, finishing within two lengths in each. The interesting thing is he never gets bet (25-1, 13-1, and 68-1 in last three). His figures are competitive, and he should be forwardly placed from the rail. Could try to steal it.
A: 8,10,14
B: 1,4
Gulfstream Park 12th (5:54 p.m. ET)
2 J P's Delight (5-2)
Will need to be the speed of the speed in here being the closest to the rail of the speed horses. If he can hold his position, he should have more stamina as he's been racing in seven-furlong races and turns back to six furlongs. Will need to run every step of the way.
7 Heiressall (6-1)
Overmatched in her last start, losing by 11 lengths, but now gets back jockey Paco Lopez. I expect a pressing trip. She will likely have first run if the speed stops.
1 Princess Causeway (8-1)
I'm not convinced this filly can get up in time at six furlongs, but there is a chance of a total pace meltdown. She could be the one flying late.
9 Pacific Gale (7-2)
Raced at the Grade 2 and 3 levels all of last year. She did not win but was competitive for the most part. I'm not trusting her off the layoff, but she is definitely capable if she returns running.
A: 2,7
B: 1,9
Gulfstream Park 13th (6:25 p.m. ET)
9 Twenty Four Seven (3-1)
Claimed out of his last race by trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., whose runners are winning at 40 percent first off the claim. Has back class and has been given some time off after a hard-fought win. Can repeat.
4 Flyoff (4-1)
Finished second to Twenty Four Seven in his comeback race two starts back. Tried harder in his last race and ran a similar figure. Could be ready for his best performance making his third start off the layoff.
1 The Queens Jules (20-1)
Has the rail and speed. Comes off a win on the dirt and moves back to turf. His turf race three starts ago could win this. If he's let go early, he could spring a surprise.
7 Bondurant (8-1)
Banging around at this level for trainer Mike Maker. Has moved to the lead in his last two starts but has been unable to finish them off. A properly timed ride might get him there.
3 King of Spades (9-2)
Probably the best closer in the race. But he has not been able to get it done at Gulfstream Park (0-for-10). He will be running late but is more likely to finish underneath.
A: 1,4,7,9
B: 3
Wagers
All-A ticket
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($36)
Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,7 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 1,4 with 2,7 with 1,4,7,9 ($24)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 1,9 with 1,4,7,9 ($36)
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6 with 8,10,14 with 2,7 with 3 ($9)
Total: $129
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Jonathon Kinchen
Race 9 at Oaklawn Park on Saturday goes to post at 5:43 p.m. ET and offers a potentially lucrative Pick 3 that ends with Race 11.
Oaklawn Park 9th
2 Mr. Money (4-1)
Was arguably the best 3-year-old in the country at a few points last year before Maximum Security locked down the No. 1 spot. This horse's 3-year-old stablemate By My Standards came back to the races as a 4-year-old at the Fair Grounds and ran huge. I expect Mr. Money to do the same.
3 Tom's d'Etat (3-1)
This guy ran some big races last year, and he loves running fresh; he is 7-for-10 off a layoff. I expect to see his best, but I am not sure if it will be good enough to beat the A races from Mr. Money and Improbable.
14 Improbable (7-2)
The 2019 Kentucky Derby favorite, Improbable was his biggest enemy last year. Gate issues will need to be resolved, but this horse has showed some serious talent. I don't see Bob Baffert putting him on the plane to Arkansas for no reason.
A: 2,3,14
B: None
Oaklawn Park 10th
4 What a Country (8-1)
Was 18-1 against runaway winner Blackberry Wine. Was glued to the rail in that race, and that still might have been a good enough performance in a normal maiden that didn't contain Blackberry Wine. Should improve in second start.
8 Urbanite (10-1)
Was 6-1 on debut against Risen Star winner Mr. Monomoy and was far out of it and wide the entire race. I would expect him to run better in this spot. Square price.
10 Dean Martini (7-2)
Had a brutal trip into the first turn in his first start off the layoff and still almost got the job done. I expect a step forward on Saturday. Will need to work out a trip from the outside.
A: 4,8,10
B: None
Oaklawn Park 11th
12 Farmington Road (6-1)
I liked him in the Risen Star, and he had a horrible trip closing into a slow pace. I love him in this spot. Jockey Martin Garcia will need to put him in the race, and that shouldn't be too hard with the outside draw and the blinkers. The pick.
3 Mr. Big News (30-1)
His last race in the Risen Star was much better than it looked. He closed into soft pace and chased Modernist, who returned to run well in the Louisiana Derby. Big longshot.
4 Thousand Words (5-2)
I once made the prediction that this horse was guaranteed to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. He is a grindy type who will run as far as they will write races. Trainer Bob Baffert is the best dirt trainer in the world. Thousand Words will run his race but will need a clean trip to win.
A: 12
B: 3,4
Wagering strategy
I usually play the late Pick 4, but I can make a case for every horse in Race 12, the last leg of the Pick 4. And I think it is lazy and a bad habit to play the Pick 4 if you don't have an opinion in either the first or last race of the sequence. So instead I will play the Pick 3, which allows me to invest more in each ticket (a $10 all-A ticket in the Pick 3 versus, say, a $2 all-A ticket in the Pick 4).
Wagers
All-A ticket
$10 Pick 3: 2,3,14 with 4,8,10 with 12 ($90)
Two-A, one-B ticket
$2 Pick 3: 2,3,14 with 4,8,10 with 3,4 ($36)
Total wager: $126
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esports-betting-tips
Flamengo - INTZ-eSports : 1 @ 1.55 (LEAGUE OF LEGENDS: Circuito Brasileiro)
Vivo Keyd - KaBuM! e-Sports : 1 @ 1.33 (LEAGUE OF LEGENDS: Circuito Brasileiro)
Total Odds : 2.06 @ bet365
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