Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 7/3/20
Weekly Bankroll Builder: July 3 Stronach 5 Play
July 1, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Weekly Bankroll Builder: July 3 Stronach 5 Play
Wednesday, July 1, 2020 by Host Brian Nadeau
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect.
Leg 1: Laurel Park R7 (3:50 ET) – 3upfm 16k N2L at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
I’ll try for a small upset with #6 PINS AND NEEDLES (4-1), who had a tough go of it early last time and lost some key early position, but a look at her prior two says she can play with these, and she figures to have a tactical edge on ‘Highway too, not to mention a recency edge as well. I contemplated singling #3 GENNIE HIGHWAY (3-1), who might be better than a really weak bunch, but the fact she hasn’t been out since September is a worry, and now she’s in for a tag too, and both rub me the wrong way, especially since she’ll be overbet too.
Pk5 A horses: 6,3 (listed in order of preference)
Maybe dropping in class and getting back to the turf will wake up #4 JUDI BLUE EYES (4-1), and her turf runs are solid, plus she’ll now run on the grass for the first time for Gonzalez, so she’s going to be my lone B, even though her 13-1-5-1 record is a bit disconcerting.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #3 Sunday Red (12-1), #9 Toma (6-1)
Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R9 – 3upfm AOC (25k/N1X) at 1-mile
I might be trying to be too clever, but I’ll put #8 FREE TO FLY (9-2) on top, since she goes off the claim for Delgado, a 4-for-11 move, and meets a pair who I don’t fully trust, though there’s little doubt she’s going to have to improve several lengths off what is a stiff rise in class. I also sided with her because #5 LIL MISS HOTSHOT (4-1), who is the gal to beat, has been 2nd in three straight, and is just 1-for-10 of late, so while she’s the most likely winner, I have some reservations as well. You also have to think #2 ALIZEE (3-1) will regress in her first start away from Navarro, especially since she rises in class off an off-the-turf win, so even though Doles is 24% with her newcomers, she’s a bit down on the top line for me.
Pk5 A horses: 8,5,2
The tactical speed of #4 SKY CHASER (7-2) makes her playable, and she comes out of a very good race for the level too, plus her overall recent form is sharp, and you’ll get a lot more value than this ML as well, so she’s worth a look as a supporting actress.
Pk5 B horses: 4
Potential B add-ins: #3 Champagne Bliss (8-1)
Leg 3: Laurel Park R8 – 3up allowance at 1-mile
You might not see a deeper, more competitive open allowance in Maryland all year, or maybe even the country, as this heat is that tough, and you could make a case for literally everyone entered. I’m going to get a little cheeky and go with the classy #6 NO DOZING (10-1), who may well have seen better days, but also might be a Lone F, and if you surmise he just didn’t like a sometimes quirky Tampa surface, while knowing he’s never been a two-turn horse either, then his form comes a bit more into focus and puts him in the mix at a price with these. The more likely winner is Maryland stud #8 ALWAYSMINING (3-1), who had no chance against tons better after a rough start last time, but has a class edge on these, and drew a perfect outside attack post at this one-turn mile as well. A September layoff says #7 CORDMAKER (7-2) might be prepping for two turns next time, but he’s too good to not use on the top line, especially since he’s got several one-turn races showing that would win this. I’m a sucker for two-turn types cutting back to one-turn, so I’ll lastly toss in #1a NAME CHANGER (9-2), a classy router and GIII winner that could trip out nicely just off the pace.
Pk5 A horses: 6,8,7,1a
This is a definite rise in class for #3 HARPERS FIRST RIDE (9-2), who aired against better with a big figure last time, but he’s clearly better than ever, and he’ll trip out here too, so he would hardly be a surprise, tougher group and all. A sharper early pace will help #2 JOHN JONES (6-1), who got caught dueling through slow splits at this trip last time but should settle better here, which will put him in the mix off the far turn, while going second-off the layoff too.
Pk5 B horses: 3,2
Potential B add-ins: #9 Honor the Fleet (12-1)
Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R10 – 3up MSW at 1-mile (turf)
Being a fresh new face against a so-so group of proven runners might be the key for #4 MONY (3-1), a first-time Ward runner who was a close 4th on debut in his lone start for Pletcher, and while it came some 15 months ago, there’s a slew of good works showing, for a trainer who is 20% off this elongated break, and 20% with newcomers too. Getting back to the turf should move up #6 JOE BENJAMIN (6-1), and his turf form is best here, as those runs two and three-back would put him right on the line with this group, plus he has plenty of speed too. A clean run would move #7 STRONG HEADED (12-1) way up, as he had a tough start last time, but his prior two were solid, and he has a stalking gear that should put him in the right spot off the far turn.
Pk5 A horses: 4,6,7
The post and connections are the biggest reason to look to #1 SPIN FACTOR (4-1), as he drew perfectly for Maker and Zayas, but there’s not much pedigree here, and this is only a 9% first-turf barn, so tread lightly as well.
Pk5 B horses: 1
Potential B add-ins: #10 Salow (8-1), #8 Unbridled Tizzy (10-1), #9 Mr Matuschek (9-2)
Leg 5: Laurel Park R9 – 3up N1X at 1 1/16 miles (turf)
It looks like put up or shut up time for #1 J BERESFORD TIPTON (2-1), who has been knocking at the door with big figures (for this group) of late, drew best, and, quite frankly faces a group he’s supposed to beat, so he’s the single in the finale, as this just looks like a field he’s got to beat up on.
Pk5 A horses: 1
Both #5 TEN EYCK (9-2) and #4 SPEED GAME (5-1) were close to ‘J last time, so I’ll use them both underneath, but they also have shown their best, so I doubt a breakthrough will be coming today. Getting back to the turf and going second-off a long layoff will help #6 CANNON’S ROAR (5-1), who will be stalking in midpack, and that fast 2nd here in September says he’s not impossible.
* Please note that on the backup tickets I’ll be singling #4 Mony in Leg 4. *
Pk5 B horses: 5,4,6
Potential B add-ins: #8 ARANSAS (6-1)
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 6,3 with 8,5,2 with 6,8,7,1a with 4,6,7 with 1 = $72
Leg 1 B Backup: 4 with 8,5,2 with 6,8,7,1a with 4,6,7 with 1 = $36
Leg 2 B Backup: 6,3 with 4 with 6,8,7,1a with 4,6,7 with 1 = $24
Leg 3 B Backup: 6,3 with 8,5,2 with 3,2 with 4,6,7 with 1 = $36
Leg 4 B Backup: 6,3 with 8,5,2 with 6,8,7,1a with 1 with 1 = $24
Leg 5 B Backup: 6,3 with 8,5,2 with 6,8,7,1a with 4 with 5,4,6 = $72
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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis
July 3, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The 0.50 Late Pick 4 at Hawthorne Racecourse begins in Race 9. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and will be my focus. If there ever was a Pick 4 devoid of form this would be it. But with randomness sometimes comes an opportunity for a nice payout.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 9
1-I Am Will (3-1)-Makes the 1st start for new connections, was claimed for $8,000 on 3/10 and now in for a $4,000 tag + allowances. 9-year-old doesn't take many pictures these days but this spot is about as soft as it will get.
4-Sports Creek (7-1)-Leonard's choice over #3 and #9 takes a considerable drop in 2nd start off the bench. This is only the 2nd race since 9/1/2018 but Leonard should keep in play versus a suspect bunch.
6-In Your Eye (5/2)-Program chalk is 1-23 which spans the past 2-years but does get a positive driver change as Husted takes a spin. Won here in March with a 155.2 mile and raced 155.4 last week in the slop, should contend here.
Race 10
1-Brooklyn Flight (5/2)-Drops and has had post #9 in both races off the restart. Could get sucked around from this spot and sneak by late.
4-I Dreamed A Dream (6-1)-10-year-old is 0-23 and that could be enough to avoid but the entire field has won only 34 races in 2019-2020. Last was better and now tries Lasix for the 2nd time.
5-Heartland Desire (9/2)-Did race better in the slop when dropped to this level last week. Trip dependent but can pass horses late so best to consider.
10-Dinky Dune (7/2)-Has won 11 of 53 at Haw, was used hard early in last and faded. Wilfong could leave and find a close-up seat without draining the tank this time. Could take a picture with the right trip.
Race 11
6-Parklane Eagle (7/2)-Beaten chalk got on the engine last time and just missed. Willis barn has been going well, may get the top tonight and not look back.
7-Park Official (9/2)-Nice effort in the slop last week and now drops. Looks like a player but will need Wilfong to work the right trip.
Race 12
1-Chick Magnet (2-1)-Broke at the start last week in the slop and had no chance in 1st try for new barn. Looking for better tonight and will respect connections. Does have the speed to cash the top check if minds manners.
8-Hello Rooster (7/2)-Even effort in the slop after winning on 6/21. Leonard was the winning pilot then and is back in the bike tonight. Should be in the hunt if finds a live cover flow.
0.50 Pick 4
1,4,6/1,4,5,10/6,7/1,8
Total Bet=$24
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Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/3/20
July 3, 2020
JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 3, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
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LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE – 3rd RACE. POST TIME 1:58 PT
2 – HARVEST MOON (8/5)
Made her debut in a difficult spot when facing a seasoned group of winners in a first-level allowance turf miler last month and actually acquitted herself very well. The daughter of Uncle Mo made a strong bid on the turn to loom a threat and then stayed on nicely to be beaten less than three lengths to a stakes-quality filly, and today surfaces in a maiden race over a Los Alamitos main track that she received all of her early training over. With the switch to F. Prat for a barn that is solid with second-timers, she looks like a logical play and rolling exotic single at anywhere near her morning line of 8/5.
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BELMONT PARK – 9TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:36 ET
8 – DALIKA (5/2)
This German-bred filly seems to have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter after a series of long distance races that really didn’t bring out her best. A visually pleasing win at Churchill Downs in late May – she won despite traffic trouble and was geared down late – was a smart way to return to competition after a five month vacation and not much more will be needed to land the A. Stall, Jr.-trained filly in the winner’s circle in this listed grass dash for fillies and mares. J. Rosario stays aboard and should have her free of trouble from her comfortable outside post position. There’s value here at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it.
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Belmont Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Movie Score Price player had a ton of stretch trouble at huge odds last time yet just missed when a neck behind in 3rd, and while the 63-1 is long gone today, that will still scare some, and it's not like she meets any world beaters here; upset special.
#6 Hetty G. Heavy hitter made her first dirt start for Ward a winning one at CD last time, while stalking and pouncing, and the dirt racing on that circuit has been strong this spring, which says this class rise won't deter her; seems the gal to beat.
#2 Kiny Sox Fellow N2L riser looked good drawing clear here last time while posting the best recent figure in the field, and a repeat puts her on the line with these, though you wonder if a regression is coming off such a big run; mixed signals here.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 1, and that makes the risk-reward enough to find out if the run last time was a fluke or not, so give her a look in all the spots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's likely to fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win in the 6-1 range would add plenty of value to both sequences.
Belmont Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Topper T Stalker has been awful in his last two but now drops in class, and while blinkers is just a 1-for-33 move for Mott, this one will like getting away from an inside speed track like last time, has the best finisher in Rosario, and catches a field when literally every other runner he meets wants to be involved early in some way; mows them down late.
#6 Spokane Eagle CD invader rises in class off the Pino claim (15%) after a good 2nd against a weaker in Kentucky, but it's a great sign to see Irad to take the reigns here, and you'd think he can settle this veteran just a tad early too, which would help late, though there's little doubt he needs to improve more than a few lengths to get there first; exotics appeal.
#5 Eye Luv Lulu Unappealing ML favorite is one of the best off-track lovers in recent memory (20-8-5-2) but is just 3-for-35 on dry land, and many of those big runs were with the magician Dubb too, and while Atras is sharp too, improving off this barn is near impossible, not to mention the losing streak is at seven, and dates back a year and a half; no thanks.
Race Summary The race flow is the big bonus for the 3, as he's the one in here that has shown the ability to settle early and fire home late, so provided you get near that 6-1 ML you can play him in all the slots, while getting value by using him to end the early Pk5/Pk4, as a win in a toughie like this, in the $14 range, might play a lot longer in both sequences, and with such a positive race flow, he's getting all the best of it to pull it off.
Belmont Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 I'llhandalthecash Lightly raced and talented miss has teased more than a few times without winning and just had a nightmare trip at CD yet ran well to be a close 4th, gets a monumental jock upgrade to Jose Ortiz, and has the tactical speed to get the jump on the favorite; finally her time.
#8 Dalika Closer came off the break and mowed them down at CD last time, while lagging behind a crawling pace too, and Rosario fits her perfectly, as he's dynamic in these turf sprints, though spotting a few lengths to the pick off the turn won't make it easy; runs out of room late.
#3 Getmotherarose Fellow closer hasn't done a lot of running of late, but she came off the break and caught yielding ground last time, and was doing two turns before that, so she's back in her element here, and will get some pace, though getting there first is another question; using underneath.
Race Summary There's a decent chance the 4 simply isn't good enough against this kind, even if she puts it all together, but if you can sneak out 4-1 or so you can string along to find out one last time, so play her in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she should offer value, and it's not like she's all that far behind the 8 to begin with, so if she does deliver, she may finally break through.
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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Ellis Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Patriot's War The barn doesn't get good numbers with debuters, but there are some serious questions about those who have run. He's bred to love the trip and may not need to be a star to score here.
#1 Substantial Looks like the one to beat, but he has never gone long and didn't show a whole lot last time out when going short. Wouldn't be that interested at something like the 8/5 ML offering.
#6 Asher's Music Didn't show much at a huge price in the debut, but the longer trip might offer some hope for improvement at a fair price.
Race Summary Patriot's War lands in what feels like a fairly modest spot for this debut run, and the barn has had a really good stretch over the last several months.
Ellis Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 Hard to Access Adds blinkers for this and brings a bullet work with her to this second try, and while she'll obviously need much better than she showed in the debut run, the equipment change that led to the recent work seems like a positive one.
#3 Sariah Sariah Has seemed to be working forwardly for this debut run, and she may still offer a playable kind of price. Useful here.
#6 Zebra Cake Debuter has a progressive looking worktab, the pedigree has some win-early appeal. Would want a fair offering on the board.
Race Summary Hard to Access is a bit of a shot here, but she has plenty of room to improve, and the addition of blinkers and the recent bullet work offer some hope that she's ready to do just that today.
Ellis Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Truculent Has only run one bad one when last in the Grade I Champagne last year behind Tiz the Law, and the November FG graduation run was pretty solid. He handled the turf in his only run over it, and he's a logical alternative to the guy outside of him.
#2 Limnery The clear one to beat, but he always gets bet and really hasn't been a serious danger for the win inside the final sixteenth in most of his recent races. He can win here, but you're allowed to try and beat him.
#9 Clear for Action Speedy player sheds the blinkers today, and that might allow for a bit more relaxed trip today. His best stuff keeps him in the mix with the top pair.
Race Summary Truculent will need to fire fresh, but he has been heading in the right direction and handled the local turf nicely here last year.
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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks
Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #5
Picks Notes
#8 IDEAL WHEEL Loomed boldly, flattened out in comeback at Pocono.
#7 YUPPER Sustained first-over rally to catch the 3-to-5 favorite.
#1 IC A FREE SPIRIT Has a lot of seconds and thirds on resume, draws rail.
Race Summary Ideal Wheel raced close-up to the stretch but lost contact with the favorites through a :27 closing quarter at Pocono Downs. Early position will be the key to finding the winners’ circle today. Play 8-1 and 8-7 exactas.
Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 MAGICAL WINNER K Could be now or never to regain winning form from last year.
#2 Y A MUSCLEMAN Earned top recent speed figures, moves outside in, won nine times in ’19.
#8 PINK PISTOL Mare can use her speed well despite starting from post 8, use in exotics.
Race Summary Magical Winner K takes an all-or-nothing type class drop as he looks to recapture his 3-year-old form. He can be excused for drawing post 10 last week, lures McNair to drive and faces weak field. Play 6-2 and 6-8 exactas.
Meadowlands - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 PEAKY SNEAKY Could play spoiler with ideal set-up for top connections.
#7 I’M VERY SPECIAL Big number in latest, can rate, versatility comes in handy.
#2 LADY LOU Ran to fast qualifiers in popular victory, steps up in class.
Race Summary In a field loaded with speed, Peaky Sneaky could rally for an upset victory for a hot barn. She’s at least usable as part of a 2-5-7 exacta box.
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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Omaha City Pressed the pace and gave way inn his debut, which came on dirt. The Temple City colt is bred to run on grass and will likely have a significant improvement here. Gets Hall of Famer Prado along for the ride.
#10 Futmini Moves over to the turf after a third on debut. Improved position from the start and has a good chance to improve on grass.
#9 Ninja Has a long list of mostly decent works as he makes his debut today. Would not be a major surprise at 1st asking.
Race Summary Omaha City gave way on the dirt but is more suited for grass and be a threat from the start.
Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Krammy Boy Was on the board in six of his last seven and was 3rd at this level last time. Can get the mile and the pace sets him up for a strong late move.
#3 French Quarter Was an easy winner against quality claimers, has often bounced around several levels and has been in many different barns. The 9-year-old is always eligible to bring his best for the trip.
#7 R U Lucky Was up in time in two of his last three and likely will be part of the pace; capable of sticking around.
Race Summary Krammy Boy can benefit from following a fast pace and is capable of getting past the front runners late in the game. Well suited for this one.
Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Champagne Bliss Improved position going short and should appreciate the mile. Makes her 3rd start off the claim by Nihei stable and can take aim at this group. One to hold off.
#4 Sky Chaser Was close up in sprints and has the chance to get on the front end here; fits very well here.
#8 Free to Fly Comes off a win going five furlongs and was claiming by Delgado stable; can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary Champagne Bliss will have plenty of targets in this one and has shown the ability to finish; gets the ideal trip today.
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Alan Scozzari
GUARANTEED B WAGER
Italy Serie B Chievo 0 -0,5 +110
TIP OF THE DAY C WAGER
Poland Ekstraklasa LKS Lodz – Wisla UNDER 2,5 +110
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