EPL Notebook - Week 27
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Swansea City remains the best ‘over’ bet in league play, going 20-6 to the high side. The defense has allowed a league-high 57 goals and only posted four clean sheets in 26 games. Delving into those numbers further, the Swans have seen three-plus combined goals scored in 12 of their 26 games. That run could come to an end on Saturday as Burnely visits Liberty Stadium. The Clarets own the worst road record (0-2-10) in the Premier League and they’ve been outscored 25-6 as visitors. The total is 2 ½ and shaded to the ‘under’ (-135).
Middlesbrough (17-9) and Stoke City (16-10) have both produced solid ‘under’ bets this season and that’s why the pair are starting at a low total (2) for this week’s encounter. They played to a 1-1 draw earlier this season in August and a similar result at Bet365 Stadium is very likely in the rematch. The Potters have scored three goals in their last five games and all of those came at home. The Boro has scored a league-low 19 goals this season and only eight in 13 away games, which has led to a 9-4 ‘under’ mark as a visitor.
Rotten Cherries
Bournemouth (+1150) is listed as the largest underdog in Matchday 27 as it visits Old Trafford for a matchup against Manchester United (-400). When you look at the form and talent of both clubs, you can argue that the numbers should be higher.
The Cherries have only earned two points (0-2-5) in seven games this year and they enter Saturday’s match with a four-game losing streak. They’ve had serious issues on defense, allowing two-plus goals in 14 of their last 17 league games and 51 overall on the season. Only Swansea City (57) has surrendered more goals. As visitors, Bournemouth has been outscored 30-15 this season and that’s produced a 2-2-9 record with the eight points coming against weaker foes.
United sits in sixth place and that’s a little surprising since the club is unbeaten in its last 16 league games (9-7-0). The Red Devils have been super on defense, allowing 21 goals this season and only nine at home. If you include all competitions, Manchester has gone 14-6-0 in its last 20 at Old Trafford.
Manchester defeated Bournemouth 3-1 on the road at Aug. 14 and also defeated the Cherries by the same score last season at home.
NBCSN kicks off the weekend with national coverage at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Two Straight?
After firing manager Claudio Ranieri last week, Leicester City responded with an impressive 3-1 home win over Liverpool, which snapped a five-game losing streak. The Foxes will be looking to win successive EPL matches for the first time since last April during their championship run.
The oddsmakers have made Leicester (-125) a healthy favorite on Saturday and deservingly against Hull City (+375). Scoring first has been key for the Foxes and they are 6-0 this season when doing so, a perfect mark no other team in the league has been able to accomplish.
Hull is also playing under a different manager with the new boss being Marco Silva, who took over for Mike Phelan. Since the coaching change, Hull has gone 4-2-4 in all competitions and they’ve earned eight points (2-2-2) in league play. The improved defensive play has been noticed as the Tigers have only allowed six goals during this span and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1.
The Tigers have only won once on the road (1-2-10) this season and they’ve been outscored 28-6 as visitors. While the Foxes haven’t been great this season, they’ve been much better at King Power Stadium with a 6-3-4 record.
Leicester City and Hull have split their last four matchups (1-2-2) and that includes a 2-1 victory by Hull City at home earlier this season.
Sunday School
It’s rare to see a team enter a match with a nine-game unbeaten run (6-3-0) and still be listed as a very heavy underdog but that’s the case with Everton (+450) this Sunday. The Toffees face the daunting task of trying to beat Tottenham (-165) at White Hart Lane, something nobody has been able to do in league play this season. The Spurs have gone 11-2-0 at home and they’ve outscored opponents 30-5 over this span, which is just incredible.
The Toffees don’t own the best overall road mark (4-4-5) but they haven’t dropped a decision since Boxing Day and managed to capture nine of a possible 15 points (2-3-0). They only allowed three goals during this span and that has helped the ‘under’ produce a 4-1 mark.
These teams met in Matchday 1 and they played to a 1-1 draw from Goodison Park. That outcome has been a very consistent trend in this series. In the last seven meetings, the pair have combined for three goals just once and that production has led to a 6-1 ‘under’ record during this span.
Despite those tendencies, the total for Sunday is listed at 2 ½ and shaded slightly to the ‘over’ (-125).
NBCSN will provide national coverage at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Heavy Road Chalk
Manchester City at Sunderland
The fans at the Stadium of Light should be entertained this week as Manchester City (-375) meets Sunderland (+1000) on the road. The Black Cats are headed to relegation and a win in this spot seems next to impossible, especially against the juggernaut of City. The Citizens have won five straight in this series and the offense has scored 10 goals in its last two games, both non-league games. City hasn’t been perfect (9-0-4) on the road but they’ve scored more away goals (28) this season. Sunderland does sneak up on people every now and then and draws versus Liverpool (1-1) and Tottenham (0-0) were great results that should be noted, plus they only dropped a 1-0 decision to Chelsea at this venue. The total does seem inflated at 3 ½ and if the Cats can withstand an early punch, a tough match could be on hand for City.
Chelsea at West Ham United
Everybody keeps waiting for the league leaders to fall but Chelsea (-175) continues to grind out points and maintain its comfortable cushion on first place. The Blues haven’t lost in any of their five games (3-2-0) in 2017 but the two draws did come on the road – a pair of 1-1 results to Liverpool and Burnley.
West Ham (+500) has gone 2-2-1 since the New Year and surprisingly seven of its points came on the road. The Hammers sit in the middle of the table and while that standing could have you believing an upset is possible at London Stadium on Monday, you might want to think again. West Ham is 0-5 versus the Top 4 clubs this season and they’ve been outscored 17-5 in those games. One of those losses came to Chelsea, who defeated them 2-1 at Stamford Bridge on Aug. 15.
The draw (+310) could be tempting as well but we’ve only seen one tie between the pair in the last 10 encounters.