Weekly European Soccer Betting Analysis
By: Monty Andrews
Covers.com
The busy and exciting world of European soccer can sometimes be difficult to navigate for bettors. Monty Andrews takes a look at some of the most important news stories, odds, key injuries, and betting trends to help with your footy wagers.
Fixture of the Week - Chelsea v. Man City
Two of the top teams in the English Premier League square off this weekend at Stamford Bridge as surging Chelsea host table-leading Manchester City. The Blues come into this one as slight +190 underdogs on Bet365 despite having won 10 of their previous 12 league matches. But a Chelsea defense that has surrendered just five goals over its first six games will face a significant challenge from Man City (+140), which have outscored opponents by an absurd 15-0 margin over their previous three games. Chelsea has the upper hand in recent history, having won the past two encounters in the series.
Where's the Offense?
Few teams in Europe have played as many low-scoring affairs as Leganes (+650), who look to continue their defensive dominance Saturday against visiting Atletico Madrid (-200). Leganes have claimed 10 out of a possible 18 points to open the season despite scoring just five goals through their first six games; their three goals surrendered are tied for the second-fewest in La Liga. Atletico have also been solid on the defensive side of the ball, limiting foes to just four goals through six games while scoring 12 themselves. With this game expected to be the lowest-scoring on the slate, bettors are getting +140 odds on the over.
Dortmund Dominance
No team has been able to tame Borussia Dortmund through the first six games of the Bundesliga season. Next up: Augsburg (+550), which comes into this one having played the visitors to a draw in each of their previous two encounters. Augsburg rank fifth in the table with 11 out of a possible 18 points, and haven't lost since their season opener. But Dortmund (-225) presents a major challenge to the hosts, having rolled to five wins and a draw through six matches while conceding just one goal along the way. Dortmund has posted a clean sheet in three straight league away matches, and is listed at +137 to repeat the feat Saturday.
Best of the Rest
AC Milan and Roma square off at San Siro Stadium on Sunday, with both teams looking to take control of Serie A's second tier. Host AC Milan (+155) are coming off a humbling 2-0 road loss to Sampdoria, and will be looking to end an ugly stretch that has seen them drop three straight games to Roma by a combined 8-2 margin. The visitors (+162) will almost certainly make a game of it, having won each of their previous nine league road games. Roma have been leading at half and full time in eight of those nine victories, and Bet365 is offering +300 odds of a repeat this weekend.
News
Chelsea are cautiously optimistic they can sign all-world midfielder Eden Hazard to a new contract that will pay him 300,000 euros per week. Retaining Hazard is critical for the Blues, who are listed on Bet365 at +500 to win this year's league championship.
Real Madrid continues to lock up their core, inking center back Raphael Varane to a deal that will keep him with the club until 2022. Varane joins Dani Carvajal, Isco, Marcelo, Karim Benzema, and Marcos Llorente, all of whom have re-upped this month.
Bayern Munich had some fun in its Champions League tie with Paris Saint-Germain, activating 36-year-old Tom Starke as their third-string goalkeeper. Starke is an instructor in Bayern's academy; he filled in for Manuel Neuer, who is out with a broken foot.
AC Milan are retaining Suso for the long-term, signing the veteran wing to a contract that will keep him with the club through the 2022 campaign. Suso has a league-best 11 assists since the start of last season for Milan, which is +2,500 to claim the Serie A title.
Injuries
Crystal Palace will seek their first goal of the EPL season without star striker Christian Benteke, who is expected to miss the next six weeks with a knee injury. Crystal Palace are listed at -200 by Bet365 to be shut out yet again this Saturday at Old Trafford.
Sevilla center back Simon Kjaer is dealing with ongoing fitness issues and is questionable for his club's La Liga tilt with visiting Malaga. Kjaer missed Tuesday's 3-0 Champions League victory over Maribor; Sevilla is -334 to prevail this weekend.
Schalke are down two players who were injured in last week's loss to Hoffenheim: Jorge Andujar Coke will miss six weeks with a knee injury, while a back ailment will sideline Alessandro Schopf a few weeks. Schalke is a +137 fave Friday vs. Bayer Leverkusen.
Polish striker Arkadiusz Milik will be sidelined several months after suffering an ACL injury in Saturday's 3-2 triumph over SPAL. Bet365 has Napoli as a heavy -800 favorite against visiting Cagliari this weekend, and +175 to win the Serie A crown.
Trends
Road warriors Swansea will look to continue an incredible stretch that has seen them record four consecutive clean sheets away from Liberty Stadium. The visitors are listed by Bet365 at +350 to extend that streak Saturday at West Ham.
Fans expect high-scoring affairs when Barcelona are in action - and they haven't disappointed, going over 2.5 total goals in 21 of their previous 24 league games. Bettors are getting -700 odds on the over in Barca's Sunday tilt with Las Palmas.
Draws have been the order of the day in Freiburg, which have been level at both half and full time in each of their previous four home matches. If you're feeling optimistic of a repeat, you'll get +500 odds for a Draw-Draw half-time/full-time result.
Lazio have seen plenty of goal celebrations, having gone over the 2.5 goal total in 14 of their last 15 Serie A matchups. Lazio and Sassuolo are installed as -175 faves to see three or more combined goals scored this weekend.
Saturday's Best Bets
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
All eyes will be on Stamford Bridge in Matchday 7 as Chelsea (+170) and Manchester City (+150) square off at 12:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Since losing its opener, the Blues have gone 7-1-0 in all competitions and they’ve outscored opponents 13-1 in four games at home. Meanwhile, City sits on top of the EPL table (5-1-0) and it’s been absolutely dominant both on offense (21 goals) and defense (2 goals). The Citizens have scored five-plus goals in its last three wins, which ties an EPL record dating back to 1958. Chelsea was the only team to sweep Manchester City last season (3-0, 2-1). Plus, Manchester City coach Pep Guardiola hasn’t won a game in regulation in his career against Chelsea, going 0-3-4. I believe the oddsmakers are telling you something with City listed as a slight favorite and despite Pep’s record, I believe his team will get the better of the Blues on Saturday.
Best Bet: Manchester City +150
Tottenham sits in fourth place of the Premier League with 11 points and its slowly regaining its form after a 2-1 home loss to Chelsea in late August. Since then, the Spurs have gone 2-2-0 in league play and the two wins have come on the road, not at Wembley Stadium. The club has also gone 2-0 in Champions League play and they did notch a 3-1 win over Borussia Dortmund at the aforementioned venue. The Spurs remain a great defensive team and despite giving up a pair in last Saturday’s 3-2 road win over West Ham United, I’m going to come back with the ‘under’ in their game this week at Huddersfield. The newly promoted club has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in six games and Tottenham hasn’t posted back-to-back ‘over’ results yet this season. NBCSN will provide coverage of this early kick at 7:30 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Best Bet: Under 2½ (+115) Tottenham-Huddersfield
Based on current form, I thought Manchester United (-650) would be listed as a larger favorite over Crystal Palace (+1750) for Saturday’s matchup (10:00 a.m. ET). The Red Devils are playing on a short week after earning a 4-1 Champions League over CSKA Moskva this past Wednesday from Russia. Still, they’ve outscored teams 12-0 at Old Trafford this season and that’s produced a perfect 4-0 record. Palace remains winless (0-6) and it hasn’t scored a goal this season. Despite the poor numbers, the club has been competitive in all but two games when it lost to Huddersfield (3-0) in its home opener and last Saturday’s 5-0 drudging at Manchester City. I still don’t believe Palace will score but I believe Manchester gets held in check and earns a lackluster 2-0 win at home.
Best Bet: Under 3 (-115) Crystal Palace-Manchester United
German Bundesliga
Could this be the year that Borussia Dortmund finally unseats Bayern Munich? There’s definitely turmoil at Bayern and the club just fired their coach Carlo Ancelotti after the team dropped a 3-0 Champions League decision this past Wednesday at Paris Saint-Germain. The setback came after the team let a two-goal lead slip in a 2-2 draw at home last Saturday to Wolfsburg. Despite this stretch, the team is only three points behind Dortmund and Bayern is still 1-1 in the CL group stage with four matches left.
Sticking with the Champions, Dortmund (0-2) has dropped identical 3-1 decisions to both Real Madrid and Tottenham in Group H. It’s tough to imagine them coming back from this start and a spot in the Europa League seems likely. After losing to Los Blancos, Dortmund rebounded with an emphatic 5-0 win in league play but that outcome was at Signal-Iduna Park. On Saturday, they visit Augsburg (+565) at 9:30 a.m. ET and it’s only allowed two goals in three home matches. I expect another tough effort by the home ‘dog but would expect Dortmund (-220) to barely come away with a victory in a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Under 3 (-119)
Spanish La Liga
Barcelona (-1100) and Real Madrid (-870) both play at home this Sunday and the pair are expected to win easily. On Saturday (2:45 p.m. ET), Atletico Madrid (-175) will be in action and they currently sit in second place of the latest La Liga standings. The club is coming off a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Chelsea in the Champions League this past Wednesday at home with the Blues scoring in the final minute. Manager Diego Simeone praised Chelsea for the win and should have his club ready to rebound at Leganes (+585) this weekend. Atletico hasn’t dropped back-to-back games this season and it hasn’t happened in all competitions since last December. Leganes has only allowed three goals in six games but the offense has managed just five and that’s part of the reason you’re looking at a low total.
Best Bet: Under 2 (-105) Atletico Madrid-Leganes