CL Best Bets - Round of 16
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The first four matches of the Champions League knockout stages saw two big-hitters all but guarantee their exit from the tournament.
Arsenal’s 5-1 defeat away to Bayern Munich was sadly predictable for many of their fans, but PSG’s 4-0 win over Barcelona was a result that stunned Europe. And it was deserved: the French side absolutely dominated against their illustrious opponents and could have won by more.
Elsewhere Real Madrid beat Napoli 3-1, while Benfica set up a fascinating second leg with Borussia Dortmund after a 1-0 win in Lisbon.
Tuesday, Feb. 21
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Atletico Madrid
Both Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid have enjoyed more success in Europe this year than in their own domestic leagues. Bayer lie eighth in the Bundesliga, although their performances have perhaps merited more than the 30 points they have at this stage. Atletico, meanwhile, still look set to make the top four in Spain, but have all but given up on any hopes of winning the league. They are fourth.
But Diego Simeone’s side are still one of the trickiest opponents in Europe. They knocked out Barcelona and Bayern Munich to make the final last year. Before that, however, they only edged past PSV Eindhoven on a penalty shootout - and that is the game punters should look to for comparison.
Atletico are better than Bayer, but they are not the kind of team to blow away a slightly inferior opponent away from home in Europe. It is likely that Simeone will be happy with a draw - and with Atletico’s fearsome defence, that should not be too hard to come by.
Best Bet: Draw at 11/5
Prediction: 1-1 at 5/1
Manchester City vs. Monaco
Few teams have caught the eye in Europe this year quite like Monaco. Playing some stunning, open football, the side from the Principality lie three points clear of PSG at the top of Ligue 1, having scored an incredible 76 goals in 26 games - though this may slightly flatter them: they are a clinical team, but they are massively overperforming on their expected goals.
They travel to Manchester City scenting a shock. City have never quite cracked Europe, and even during their journey to the semi-finals last year, few ever really thought they would win it. Many thought that had changed when they beat Barcelona 3-1 earlier in the season, but given how Barça collapsed against PSG, and how City’s season has faltered since then, there is still a sense that Monaco have a good chance here.
At 5/1 they are, quite simply, worth a bet. Tottenham Hotspur, whom Monaco knocked out in the group stage, would be a fair bit shorter than 5/1 to win at Man City: the price just seems wrong. City are always vulnerable against good attacks, and Monaco certainly have that.
Best Bet: Monaco to win at 5/1
Prediction 3-1 to Monaco at 40/1
Wednesday, Feb. 15
FC Porto vs. Juventus
As has become the custom in Italy, Juventus are already running away with the league title. They are seven points clear of second placed Roma, having won 21 of their 25 games. They travel to Portugal in what looks like a pretty winnable tie against 2004 winners FC Porto.
Porto came second in a group involving Leicester City, although their 5-0 demolition of the unlikely English champions, who enjoyed a bit of luck to come top, shows that this will not be an easy tie. Juventus are the masters of grinding out results when they are not playing very well. They have mastered hard-ish games like Porto away down to a fine art. They won all three away games in their group, including a mightily impressive 3-1 win away to Sevilla on the penultimate matchday.
Porto have a decent defence, but Juventus should have enough to get a win, though it may be close.
Best Bet: Juventus to win by one goal at 13/5
Prediction: 2-1 to Juventus at 17/2
Sevilla vs. Leicester City
It is possible that no team has ever been in as bizarre a situation as Leicester City. They have not scored in 2017 league play. On current performances they are the Premier League’s worst team. They were knocked out of the FA Cup by Millwall of the third tier - who had ten men for most of the second half.
And yet here they are, in Seville, for a Champions League knockout match. They are still the champions of England. But Sevilla, one of Europe’s most improved sides, will surely be too much for Claudio Ranieri’s struggling team. Jorge Sampaoli’s men are third in La Liga, and have now risen up to the level of Atletico Madrid in being able to challenge Spain’s big two.
I expect this to be an absolute thumping. Leicester look utterly lost at the moment. They are ludicrously easy to defend against and their back four are slow and disorganised. At present, there really is nothing positive to say about them. Even at 2/5, Sevilla look value.
Best Bet: Sevilla to win to nil at 11/10
Prediction: 4-0 to Sevilla at 14/1