CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
The effect of big money in football is no more apparent than in the final round of Champions League group games. There is very little at stake. In all but one of the eight groups, the two richest teams sit top; only Tottenham Hotspur have underperformed. Only four places in the last 16 of the competition are up for grabs.
This means that the next two nights of football will see plenty of teams fielding weakened sides. The bright side of this is that it could lead to some interesting betting opportunities, especially just after the teams are named.
Barcelona remain the 3/1 favourites to lift the trophy, followed by Bayern Munich at 7/2 and Real Madrid at 11/2. Next come Atletico Madrid at 8/1, Man City at 11/1, Juventus at an appealing-looking 14/1, Borussia Dortmund at 16/1, PSG at 22/1 and Arsenal at 25/1.
The Banker: PSG -2 vs Ludogorets Razgrad at 6/4
Ludogorets Razgrad are winless in the Champions League this year, but due to the polarised nature of Group A they are still in with a chance of a Europa league spot. Only if Basel get a better result than them (they play Arsenal at home) will the Bulgarian champions miss out on European football in the first half of 2017. So if word comes from Switzerland that Basel are losing, then it does not much matter what Ludogorets do away to PSG. They have already conceded 14 times in six group games, and were dismantled 6-0 by Arsenal at the Emirates.
PSG are recovering from a shock 3-0 defeat at Montpellier at the weekend, so even if their side has a second-string feel about it, there is plenty of reward available for players who perform well. They are a class above Ludogorets and at 6/4 should be backed -2.
The Solid Bet: Besiktas to win at Dynamo Kiev at 11/8
Normally this would look a very short price away to a tricky and talented Dynamo Kiev side, but in a very tight group the Ukrainians have ended up with just two points from five games and are now guaranteed to finish bottom. For them, this game is a dead rubber.
Not so for Besiktas. If they win, they are guaranteed to qualify; if they draw, they need Benfica to beat Napoli. The incentive for them to win is huge. They have already proved their talent with an impressive 3-2 win away to Napoli as well as four other draws. Besiktas are unbeaten in the Turkish league this year and have the firepower to get that all important win in Ukraine.
The Outsider: Manchester City to draw with Celtic at 9/2
Manchester City’s title hopes were dealt a big blow at the weekend as they surrendered a 1-0 lead to Chelsea, who counter-attacked them to devastating effect to win 3-1 at the Etihad Stadium. They now face Celtic. Nothing is at stake for them. They cannot win the group and they are guaranteed to qualify.
For Celtic, the game is also technically irrelevant, but a trip down south for any Scottish team is a big event, and given their unassailable lead in the Scottish Premier League, this is a game they will take very seriously.
They held City to a thrilling 3-3 draw at Parkhead on matchday two. City will field a pretty weak team here - they looked tired towards the end of the Chelsea game. Brendan Rodgers has assembled a decent little squad at Celtic and at 9/2 they are good value to come away from Manchester with a point.
The First Goalscorer: Olivier Giroud for Arsenal at Basel at 4/1
There is still a bit at stake for Arsenal as they travel to Switzerland for their last group game. Their draw at home to PSG means that they must better PSG’s result to finish top. As the French side play Ludogorets at home, this is unlikely, but it does mean that Arsene Wenger will not pick a completely second-string side. One player who will get a chance is Olivier Giroud.
Despite losing his first team place to the red-hot Alexis Sanchez, Giroud’s goal record this year is still very respectable. He has become a useful substitute option for Arsenal. He scored a late equaliser at Manchester United as well as scoring a penalty against PSG. Assuming he starts he represents good value to score first at 4/1