CL Best Bets - Tuesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Matchday 5 of the Champions League takes place this week, and for some teams this is their last chance to stay in touch with the top two places in their group, and to qualify for the last 16 of the competition.
Barcelona and Bayern Munich are level at 10/3 favourites, with Real Madrid available at 6/1. Atletico Madrid are next at 10/1. Manchester City are 11/1, Juventus are 14/1 and Borussia Dortmund are 18/1.
The Banker: Leicester City to beat Club Brugge at 8/15
Leicester have only won three Premier League games all season and their 2-1 defeat at Watford on Saturday even raised fears of a relegation battle for last season’s champions. But on the evidence of the Champions League so far, very few games in the Premier League are easier than their task tonight - a home game with Club Brugge. If Leicester win, they will make it very difficult for FC Porto to overhaul them and finish top of the group.
The Foxes won 3-0 in Belgium on Matchday 1. Brugge have no points, and were even beaten 4-0 by FC Copenhagen, before back-to-back single-goal defeats to Porto. Their defence of their Belgian league crown has improved of late. They won 1-0 away to Sint Truiden at the weekend, but Leicester are a wholly different challenge, and there is little to suggest that they can get anything.
Leicester are a good bet at 8/15.
The Solid Bet: Both teams to score in Sporting CP v Real Madrid at 4/7
Real Madrid would have originally seen Group F as a fairly straightforward battle between themselves and Borussia Dortmund for top spot. But they have only won two of their four games, and need a point away to Sporting to guarantee qualification, with a tough match against Dortmund coming up. Real needed a very late winner to beat the Portuguese side last time out, and they were shambolic defensively in a 3-3 draw away to whipping boys Legia Warsaw in their last game.
Real’s defence has been good in La Liga, but in Europe they have conceded seven goals in four games. Sporting are the second highest scorers in Portugal, and swept aside Arouca 3-0 at the weekend. They are 17/4 to win the match, with Real at 4/6, but a better bet may be Both Teams to Score at 8/15.
The Outsider: CSKA Moscow to beat Bayer Leverkusen at 3/1
CSKA Moscow need to beat Bayer Leverkusen to have any chance of progressing to the knockout stages from Group E, the tournament’s tightest group. The return fixture in Germany ended in a 2-2 draw, and at 3/1 bookies may have underestimated the Russian side for this match. Bayer look nothing like value at 21/20.
The temperature will be 23?F in the Russian capital tomorrow night - conditions CSKA are much more used to than their opponents. CSKA ground out a solid 1-0 win away to Arsenal Tula at the weekend - they had the added advantage of playing on Friday night, and so having an extra day’s rest to Leverkusen, who lost 3-2 to Red Bull Leipzig 24 hours later.
A trip to Russia looks a daunting task for mid-table Leverkusen, and they could come unstuck.
The First Goalscorer: Radamel Falcao for Monaco vs Tottenham Hotspur at 11/2
This game is huge for both sides. To put it simply, Spurs need to win, while a draw is fine for Monaco. Spurs have been some way below their high standard from last season, and were fortunate to win 3-2 against West Ham United on Saturday - a daunting trip to their eternal nemeses Chelsea on Saturday night means this is a huge week for Mauricio Pochettino’s side.
Radamel Falcao endured two nightmarish years in English football, first with Manchester United and then with Chelsea, but he has recently hit form back at his parent club, Monaco. He opened the scoring in his side’s 3-0 win over Lorient last weekend, as well as hitting back-to-back braces against Nancy and CSKA Moscow in recent weeks.
At 11/2 he looks good value to break down Spurs’s defence.
CL Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Four groups got one game nearer their conclusion last night, with quite a few teams securing qualification to the next round of the Champions League. Monaco’s win over Spurs means they win Group E and Bayer Leverkusen will come second. Spurs and CSKA Moscow face a play-off for the Europa League spot.
Group F all comes down to Real Madrid’s home game with Borussia Dortmund: if Real win, they win the group; anything else, Dortmund do.
Leicester have won Group F leaving FC Porto and FC Copenhagen to battle for second place. And in Group H Juventus’s late winner means that they only need a home win against Dinamo Zagreb to finish top. If Lyon beat Sevilla in France they will pip the highly-rated Spaniards to second.
The Banker: Napoli to beat Dynamo Kiev at 4/9
Group B is still very tight, with Benfica and Napoli on seven points, Besiktas on six and Dynamo Kiev on one. Benfica and Napoli still have to play each other again, meaning that Dynamo Kiev now cannot qualify for the second round. This means they have little to play for away to Napoli, while the home side are in a closely-fought race.
Napoli got an important 2-1 win away to Udinese last time out and, after a tricky start, they lie sixth in Serie A. But barring a disastrous 3-2 defeat at home to Besiktas, they have looked the best team in the group so far. They tore Benfica apart, winning 4-2, at home, before a 1-1 draw where they had much the better of the game. Napoli had never lost at home in the Champions League before that Besiktas defeat, and at 4/9 they are a banker to win.
The Solid Bet: Ludogorets Razgrad to beat Basel at 8/5
Both Ludogorets Razgrad and Basel have drawn one and lost three. The draw was with each other - a 1-1 stalemate in Switzerland and defeats to Arsenal and PSG. Basel have the greater Champions League pedigree, but Ludogorets are the narrow 8/5 favourites, with Basel 8/15.
There is still a lot to play for here: a Europa League run would be fantastic for both sides, and it is Ludogorets’s home performances that have given the Bulgarian team the best cause for optimism. They went 2-0 up against Arsenal before losing 3-2. But for much of the game they matched their illustrious rivals. Basel, meanwhile, have only scored twice - both at home. Their away matches to PSG and Arsenal both ended in meek 3-0 defeats where they barely threatened.
Ludogorets have looked the more dangerous team, and hope advantage could give them the edge here.
The Outsider: PSG to win at Arsenal at 2/1
Arsenal are firmly in the title race in the Premier League, but their matches against good teams this year have been marked by a run of good luck for the North London side. Other than their 3-0 win over Chelsea, the Gunners have been poor in their most important games this year. They were incredibly lucky to escape with 1-1 draws from PSG and Manchester United. They lost 4-3 at home to Liverpool and were unspectacular in a 1-1 home draw with Spurs.
PSG had a dodgy start to the season, but they are motoring towards the top of Ligue 1 after five wins in their last six games. They have only conceded once in those matches. Arsenal are 29/20 to win this match, but their displays against the best sides this year do nothing to justify that price. Back PSG to win at 2/1.
The First Goalscorer: Edinson Cavani for PSG against Arsenal at 4/1
Arsenal simply could not deal with Edinson Cavani’s movement in the first fixture between the Gunners and Paris Saint Germain. It was only some appalling finishing from the Uruguayan that prevented him getting a hat-trick. But he did score the first goal of that game - in the first minute, indeed. And with PSG good value to win the match, it would be a good idea to take their top marksman to score the game’s first goal at 4/1. He has 11 in Ligue 1 this year and seems to have put his early-season jitters behind him.