Champions Knockout Preview
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider.com
Favourable draws in the last 16 have meant that the two front-runners for the Champions League, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, are now both into 5/2 from 3/1 to win the competition. So it is shorter than evens that one of them will lift the trophy in Berlin in May. Bayern Munich face a tricky tie with Shakhtar Donetsk but one they will ultimately come through. Real Madrid have struck lucky in drawing German side Schalke 04, who are arguably the weakest team left in the competition.
Odds to win 2014-15 Champions League (Sportsbook.ag)
FC Bayern Munich 5/2
Real Madrid 5/2
FC Barcelona 11/2
Chelsea FC 7/1
Manchester City 14/1
Atletico Madrid 18/1
Arsenal FC 20/1
Borussia Dortmund 25/1
Juventus 25/1
Paris Saint-Germain 25/1
FC Porto 50/1
Bayer Leverkusen 100/1
AS Monaco 125/1
FC Basel 200/1
Shakhtar Donetsk 250/1
FC Schalke 04 300/1
At identical prices Real Madrid look by far the stronger bet. They have won an astonishing 21 games in a row in all competitions and are breaking all manner of records. They are the complete unit going forward. They have midfielders who can keep the ball and suck the life out of the opposition, and they also have some of the fastest attackers in the world, capable of destroying teams on the counter-attack. No other team can play so many ways. Real beat Bayern 4-0 away from home playing pure counter-attacking football, while they usually dominate their domestic matches through possession. No-one can match them at the moment.
Bayern were outclassed by Real last year and the gap between the two has, if anything, become wider since then. Part of the reason they are both 5/2 is that no team has ever retained the Champions League. This may be something of a freak, as occurrences of teams winning the competition twice in three years are very common, as are teams making it to consecutive finals. Plenty of sides won back-to-back European Cups, so it is only a matter of time before someone breaks this anomaly.
Before the draw, Barcelona and Chelsea were level in the betting, but Chelsea’s odds have lengthened to 7/1 after drawing PSG (who are 28/1), while Barcelona are still 11/2 after being matched with Manchester City (16/1).
This makes hardly any sense. According to bookmakers at Sportsbook.ag, Barcelona have drawn a team more likely to win the Champions League than Chelsea have, so why is it they who have shortened and not the Londoners? These ties are both repeats of last year. Chelsea and Barcelona won both, but narrowly. The Blues were three minutes from exiting the competition before Demba Ba’s late goal sent them through, while a red card for Martin Demichelis in the first leg in Manchester effectively handed the Catalans victory. City’s struggles in Europe make me cautious about taking them at 16/1. However Chelsea, who are another rare team who can genuinely play two different ways, are a strong bet now at 7/1.
Juventus face Borussia Dortmund in a really interesting looking clash. The two teams contrast hugely: Juventus are nearly invincible in domestic football but tend to come up just short against the best the continent has to offer; Borussia Dortmund, on the other hand, have had an appalling year in the Bundesliga. They lie 16th out of 18, but are Champions League specialists having made the quarter-finals last year and the final the year before. They also won their group ahead of Arsenal, giving them the advantage of playing the second leg at home. Interestingly, Juventus are slightly shorter win the competition at 25/1 to Dortmund’s 28/1. 10/11 may be a price worth taking on the Italians getting past Dortmund.
Another German club will be in action when Atletico Madrid meets Bayer Leverkusen. This looks far easier to call. Bayer have not quite lived up to expectations in the league this year and have nothing of the Atletico’s European experience. The Spaniards, who came within a minute of winning the competition last year, are 1/3 to make it through. They will be content with their draw.
After a series of bad luck in the Champions League knockout stages, Arsenal have finally been handed the draw all the second-placed teams wanted - Monaco. Monaco won their group despite scoring just four goals, but they are not a particularly good team and Arsenal should at least make the quarter finals this time. Their inability to compete with teams who are better than them means they are no sort of value at 20/1 to lift the trophy, but 11/8 to Arsenal to win the first leg at the Emirates to nil looks a solid bet.
Last, there is Basel vs. Porto, where Basel look an interesting bet at 7/4 to make it through. Porto won a relatively easy group, while Basel put in some excellent performances in theirs, most notably two positive results against Liverpool. They are having a better domestic season than their opponents, and are becoming regulars at this stage of the Champions League, so experience will not be a factor. This is nowhere near the best Porto team of recent years, and they could be vulnerable.
Top Bet: Real Madrid to win the Champions League at 5/2