Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, January 27, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Take it from a guy who makes a living studying gambling, enjoying its vomit inducing highs and lows – there is nothing better when it comes to betting than horse racing. It’s a really exciting sport with such a fantastic variety of bet types that there are tons of ways to pad your bankroll.
The thing I like most about betting the ponies is that it’s over in a few minutes. Tired of yelling at Tom Brady for four goddamn hours? Sick of waiting for LeBron to kick it in to high gear during a three hour game? Well then do I have the sports betting fit for you!
I’m treating this as an intro to the racebook overall, so if you’re a veteran of the track then just skip to the part where I discuss the contenders. For those of you that are intrigued by the dirt oval, have a scan through and see if this is something for you.
QUICK GUIDE TO BETTING HORSES
Don’t bet on horses that much? Well I’ve got your back. If you know how to bet on horses then totally skip this section. There are loads of different options to choose from but let’s keep things simple.
There are two broad categories for wagers in horse racing. The first is straight bets, which are wagers on a single horse. The next category is “exotics”, which is the horse racing equivalent of a parlay. For the purposes of beginners, we’re going to shed light on a particular set of bets that make it easy for you to break in to the sport of kings. Is it still called that? Not sure. Moving on.
Straight Bets
To Win: Horse must finish 1st
To Place: Horse must finish 1st or 2nd
To Show: Horse must finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Basic Exotic Bets
Exacta: Bet two horses in exact order finishing 1st and 2nd
Exacta Box: Bet the top-2 finishers
Triacta / Trifecta: Bet tthree horses in exact order finish 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Triacta Box: Bet the top-3 finishers
Simple enough? The straight bets are as easy as they get, and the beauty about horse racing is that you can bet on the 2nd and 3rd place horses as well. The odds get reduced (obviously) but it’s still a nice, built-in hedge.
The exotics is where the money’s at and you can risk a little to win big. The payouts depend on the odds so I haven’t listed them, but you’ll get the idea. Take some time to learn something new, and you just may start earning some nice beer money on the side!
THE 2018 PEGASUS WORLD CUP FIELD
This is just the second running of the Pegasus World Cup, the world’s newest and richest horse race. It’s worth $12 million to the money finishers. By contrast, the Kentucky Derby has a purse of $2 million.
Why don’t more people care about it in the mainstream? Horse racing has a seasonal audience outside of those that keep track of it year round. So if you’re unfamiliar with the sport’s contenders in general, keep on reading.
Gun Runner (4/5 to win 2018 Pegasus) – When you see odds that are below even money, then you know that a horse is being rated heads and shoulders above his rivals. Gun Runner is a five-year-old who has been the toast of the sport for just under a year. He most certainly doesn’t have the name recognition of fellow generational talents like American Pharoah and California Chrome, but he’s easily the best racehorse in North America right now.
Gun Runner was last out winning the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic, which is the equivalent to the Super Bowl in horse racing despite being worth half as much as the Pegasus World Cup. It was a brilliant, wire-to-wire performance. That’s put him on course for 6-1-0 in his last seven starts, losing just once in the Dubai World Cup. He’s far and away the most accomplished competitor in this race and you can tell just by looking at his odds.
Sharp Azteca (6/1 to win 2018 Pegasus) – For the life of me I can’t figure out why this horse is the second favorite. The Pegasus is contested at 1 1/8th miles, and Sharp Azteca is a known sprinter. He’s a definite speedster, but he’s never competed at this distance. Sharp Azteca has only won a single race longer than a mile, it was the Monmouth Cup last year, a Grade-III race. I simply don’t see how the bookmakers can gift this horse such promising odds given that he’s never challenged a distance this great, nor a competitor as good as Gun Runner.
Collected / West Coast (8/1 to win 2018 Pegasus) – If you’re looking for an outsider to upset the heavy favorite, then there are two horses you should have a look at. The first is Collected and the next is West Coast, two up and coming horses who have a real shot at giving Gun Runner a stiff challenge.
Collected finished second to Gun Runner in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic by just a few lengths, and really tried to give him a go during the race. He is a known quantity at this distance having won the Pacific Classic at 1 ¼ miles, and his brave showing at the Classic has given him plenty of supporters. But questions remain after he was dusted in the 2017 San Antonio Stakes, finishing 3rd in a strange performance.
If there’s any horse that really has a chance to threaten Gun Runner, it’s West Coast. There is a world of potential here. West Coast buried his three-year-old rivals in the Travers Stakes and the Pennsylvania Derby. Those races are essentially the two most prestigious competitions for three-year-old colts during the summer. Wins in one can provide a colt with serious momentum towards the big money events in the world championships (aka the Breeders’ Cup).
Advertisement
The fact that West Coast is also trained by Bob Baffert, arguably the best trainer in the world, should also boost perception. One of the things about horses West Coast’s age is that they can turn the corner in terms of maturity, and nobody knows that better than Gun Runner.
Like West Coast, Gun Runner was a late bloomer. He finished 3rd in the 2016 Kentucky Derby and the 2016 Travers Stakes before ascending during his four-year-old season to become the world’s best. Along the way, Gun Runner accumulated a polished record finishing out of the money just twice during 18 starts.
So if there’s a chance for a horse to do something miraculous in dethroning the soon-to-be-crowned 2017 Horse of the Year, I believe that it’s West Coast. Collected has shown flashes of brilliance but coupled them with dips of mediocrity too often. There is a chance that seeing Gun Runner again brings out the best in Collected, but I prefer the chances of West Coast literally and figuratively turning the corner.
The Remainder of the 2018 Pegasus Field - As you can see from the remainder of the odds listed below, the oddsmakers are really grading this race as a four-horse competition. Longshots always have a chance of creating havoc on the board but it’s usually pretty difficult to figure out which one is going to do the dirty work.
Of the longshots, Gunnevera is the highest rated but that’s purely because of his name value. He always seems to be in the mix, but never really shines on the big stage. He placed 7th in the 2017 Kentucky Derby and 5th in the 2017 Preakness Stakes on his way to a distant 5th place finish in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic. If you like him, then go for it but I think we’ve already seen this colt hit his peak.
Stellar Wind is the only female runner in the competition and she is an absolute treasure, but it’s hard to imagine her best matching that of Gun Runner and Arrogate. However, if you’re going to take a longshot at 30/1 than Stellar Wind certainly seems like the one to bank on. At her best she was beating Beholder, one of the greatest competitors of all time. However, she is also coming off her worst performance with an 8th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. That explains her odds. It’s hard to convince oneself that she has the gusto to beat this caliber of a field but you don’t have to risk a lot to get there.
Betting longshots because you like their name or have a feeling is sort of the point of goofy bets, but remember that the odds are what they are for a reason.
2018 Pegasus World Cup (1 1/8th Miles - $12 Million)
Saturday, January 27th at Gulfstream Park
BetOnline.ag 2018 Pegasus World Cup Odds
Post Position Horse Odds
1 Singing Bullet 30/1
2 West Coast 8/1
3 Stellar Wind 30/1
4 Sharp Azteca 6/1
5 Collected 8/1
6 Gunnevera 15/1
7 Fear the Cowboy 30/1
8 War Story 25/1
9 Toast of New York 20/1
10 Gun Runner 4/5
11 Seeking the Soul 25/1
12 Giant Expectations 30/1
*odds presented are morning lines at BetOnline.ag
HOW TO BET THE 2018 PEGASUS CUP
With events as big as this, spreading out some change across a variety of bets is usually the best idea. Some veteran horseplayers and gamblers will leverage some heavy bets, but if you’re new to this than don’t go crazy. Or whatever – go crazy. It’s your money.
My favorite plays are win bet on West Coast, an exacta on Gun Runner and West Coast and an exacta box with those two along with Stellar Wind. As stated in the guide above, you can box three horses in a bet that needs two of them.
The strongest bet is Gun Runner winning outright, and you’re not getting hammered here at -125 or 4/5.
With the Triple Crown around the corner on the first weekend of May, the 2018 Pegasus World Cup is a fantastic way to get your wheels greased for the track. Gotta fill that football void somehow right?