2002 Buzz Word Sports records
SEASON NFL: 130-94, +73.45 UNITS!!
SEASON NBA: 125-98, +49.85 UNITS!!
SEASON MLB: 672-582, +151.85 UNITS!!
Recap of 12/2:
It was a close one, but the Jets came through as 6.5-point underdogs on Monday Night to make our 5-Unit Top Play a winner... we also nailed the Miami Heat in our biggest NBA play, as well as Toronto and the Knicks - however, the NBA card became a wash when Orlando and Indiana couldn't get the job done, and our Miami Under play became toast when the teams went to overtime...
All in all, a profitable day, and a well-needed one after the events of this weekend, which saw us get the short side of the stick in game after game in the NFL (the Chicago/Green Bay game alone was a 14.7 point swing due to a meaningless touchdown)... the fact that we were able to still swing a profit in the NFL this weekend despite some bad breaks shows just how close we were to yet another massive day...
Anyway... upwards and onwards... we have several great plays in the NBA, as there are some lines that are WAY off right now... and they seem to be swinging our way even further, so enjoy!
12/3 TOP NBA PLAYS:
Milwaukee @ Washington 7:05 PM EST
Milwaukee +5 over Washington (4 Units)
Milwaukee/Washington Over 188 (1.5 Units)
In the last ten times these two teams have matched up against one another, things have pretty much gone according to expectations, as the favorite has gone an amazing 9-1 ATS in the series... normally that type of trend would favor the Washington Wizards, as they have been installed as a 5 point home favorite in this contest against the Milwaukee Bucks... however, it is of our opinion that the wrong team in this game has been favored, as the Wizards should not be favored against anyone right now, let alone a Bucks team that is exceeded expectations this year...
The Wizards have now lost six straight games overall, including two straight at home... and while Washington may have a 5-4 record at home overall, it's tough to be impressed with home wins over Cleveland, Miami, Utah (during their early season struggles), and a Shaq-less Lakers... meanwhile, in their last four home games against quality teams (Indiana, Seattle, New Jersey, Philadelphia), the Wizards have pulled the oh-fer, helping push their home record to a horrendous 1-7 ATS, and their overall record this season to just 3-13 ATS...
Milwaukee's 8-8 mark may not earmark them as a quality team this season by most standards (by the way, Washington is 0-9 ATS against winning teams), but their 11-4-1 ATS mark shows us that the Bucks are performing much better than expectations... and while Milwaukee is just 2-6 SU on the road this season, they are an amazing 7-1 ATS in those contests... we are also willing to give the Bucks the benefit of the doubt with their SU road mark, as their losses have come against some of the strongest home teams (Philadelphia, Phoenix, Indiana, Detroit, Minnesota, and the Lakers with Shaq) in the league... and in those contests, the Bucks lost by more than five points just once, indicating that a break here or there would have swung the game the other way...
Against weaker opposition on the road (Golden State, New York), the Bucks have come through both times with the SU win and cover... and considering that the Bucks have been playing some of their best ball of the season, while the Wizards are a complete mess, and just loss Juan Dixon for several weeks, there is little reason why the Wiz should be favored in this contest... the Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four contests on the strength of a defense that is allowing just 87 ppg in that time... meanwhile, in their attempts to get back in the win column, Washington has started neglecting their defense, allowing 95+ points in their last two games... and any lack of defensive intensity against a dangerous Bucks team that has seen Michael Redd more than step in for Ray Allen will certainly doom the Wizards to a seventh straight overall loss...
Milwaukee has won six of their last seven games against the Wizards, and have scored at least 98 points in ten straight contests against Washington, an offensive number the Wizards haven't reached since mid-November... toss in the fact that Washington is a miserable 0-6 ATS this season with two or more days rest, and it seems to us that laying points with the Wizards is a death wish here... IF the Wizards win, it will be by no more than 2-3 points, but we sincerely doubt even that situation will occur, as the Bucks come through with their third road win of the season over unworthy competition...
FINAL PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE 102, WASHINGTON 93
San Antonio @ Houston 8:35 PM EST
Houston +3.5 over San Antonio (3.5 Units)
Everyone is expecting another schooling of Yao Ming by Tim Duncan and company tonight... and frankly, we can understand why many would believe the Spurs would win this game, as they have taken 9 of the last 10 matchups against the Rockets... however, we're just not convinced that this edition of the Spurs is good enough to go on the road and take down a decent team, as age seems to have caught up with the team this season... San Antonio is a pathetic 1-6 ATS on the road in their last six games, covering only against the pathetic Cleveland Cavaliers... in fact, San Antonio's only road wins this season have come against Cleveland, Memphis, and a Shaq and Fox-less Lakers team... why should the Spurs suddenly be expected not only to win in Houston, but cover a 3.5 point spread?
The Spurs are being OUTSCORED by a 91.9 to 90.2 margin on the road, while the Rockets are outscoring teams at home by a 95.3-88.8 margin... and while San Antonio may have dominated the Rockets in the past, this is just not the same Spurs team that once dominated several teams they have lost to this season (hell, they lost to Denver AND Golden State this season)... There is no reason for the Spurs to be favored here, other than the fact that public perception sees the team for what they once were, not the shell of a competitor they currently are... I guess it's amazing what a 22-point home victory over the previously red-hot Jazz will do for your reputation... however, as we learned when the Spurs crushed Denver at home only to lose SU as a road fav against Phoenix in their next game, performing well on the road is a much different animal than taking down the competition at home.... San Antonio's blowout win in their last game may very well work against them, as San Antonio is just 1-6 ATS after a SU win of 20 points or more, and 1-6 ATS on the road after a double-digit SU win...
The Rockets are 5-1 SU at home, and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as a small dog (six points or less)... they're held their last three home opponents to 83 ppg, while the Spurs have averaged less than 87 ppg in their last five road contests, and have covered the spread just once in their last seven road outings... San Antonio's past dominance over the likes of Golden State and Denver has meant nothing this year when the Spurs have been on the road, and we're expecting a similar result tonight, as the Rockets take their home record to 6-1, while the Spurs drop to 1-5 SU in their last six road games...
FINAL PREDICTION: HOUSTON 89, SAN ANTONIO 84
New Orleans @ Chicago 8:35 PM EST
Chicago +2.5 over New Orleans (3 Units)
Once again, we have a case of the wrong team favored tonight... the Hornets have gone just 2-6 SU on the road this season, defeating only the Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks, and yet they are still favored in tonight's game against the Bulls, who despite their 0-6 road trip are still a winning team at home, and have lost only to Dallas and Boston - two teams that are early contenders to meet in the NBA Finals... the fact that New Orleans is a road favorite in this contest is one thing, but to be favored with the knowledge that Baron Davis is out is just ridiculous...
The Hornets looked lost against the Celtics last time out without their floor general, losing to a team they had dominated in the past by nine points, and failing to cover the spread... and without the Baron to guide them this evening, the Hornets offense appears doomed to resemble the outfit that has scored 87 points or less in six road losses this season, including a pathetic 79 points in their last visit to Chicago, a SU loss as a road favorite...
In addition to Chicago's SU win over the Hornets at home this season, they have also taken down the Nets and have blown out the Grizzlies, making Chicago a respectable 3-2 SU at home this season... and there really is no place like home for the Bulls after a long and arduous road trip, as Chicago has now gone 3-0 SU and ATS in their first home game after a road trip of 5+ games... on each occasion, the Bulls were a home dog, and on each occasion, they won straight up, beating the spread by an average of 9.3 ppg...
All in all, with the Bulls relaxed and back at home, we expect them to take out their frustrations from their 0-6 road trip on the Hornets, who still need to prove that they can win on the road before we lay points with them...
FINAL PREDICTION: CHICAGO 98, NEW ORLEANS 88
OTHER NBA PLAYS (no analysis):
Memphis @ LA Lakers 10:35 PM EST
Memphis +11 over LA Lakers (2.5 Units)
Minnesota @ Sacramento 10:05 PM EST
Sacramento -9 over Minnesota (2 Units)
Thanks for looking, and good luck tonight!!
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