THURSDAY CFB SELECTION
Vanderbilt +9 over WAKE FOREST
One of Thursday’s kickoff games will be an ACC-SEC clash as Wake Forest hosts Vanderbilt. It has been a long time since Vandy has had a successful season and last year followed the same pattern. High hopes for a winning season and bowl game were dashed early; however, the team was much more competitive than its 2-9 record might indicate, as they suffered 6 defeats by a combined 15 points. Wake Forest also missed out on a bowl appearance with a disappointing 4-7 mark. The Demon Deacons also hung tough in their defeats, losing 6 games by seven points. They even dropped a couple in OT, losing at conference foes Clemson and NC State.
Jay Cutler is perhaps the best college quarterback that gets little attention. He hasn't done a lot of winning at Vanderbilt, so the fact that the SEC coaches recently voted him the league's top signal caller speaks volumes. He completed 61 percent of his throws for 1,844 yards and 10 touchdowns last season while tossing just five interceptions. With good size, a strong arm and tremendous athleticism, Cutler is clearly an NFL prospect. He actually contemplated leaving school early, but decided to come back for his senior season. Like Cutler on offense, the Vanderbilt defense possesses a star of its own in linebacker Moses Osemwegie. Another NFL prospect, he earned First Team All-SEC honors last year, and will again be the leader of the Commodores stop unit. His main job here will be to slow down the Wake Forest running attack.
There are some tremendous passing teams in the ACC, but Wake isn't one of them. The Deacons relied heavily on the run last year, and more of the same should be expected this season. Chris Barclay is back for another season, off his 1000-yard year which earned him First-Team All-ACC honors. Unfortunately, for him and his team he will miss this opener because of a violation of team rules. While Wake has solid back-ups in the backfield, Barclay would certainly have been a nice pressure release for Ben Mauk, who gets his first college start here. Just a sophomore, he has beaten out Cory Randolph for the starting job. Randolph is the better runner, but Mauk is easily the better passer. It remains to be seen if Mauk can handle the pressure of the starter’s role. If his passing is off and the running game is lacking without Barclay and Randolph, look for Cory to jump back in behind center. The Wake Forest defense ranked a poor 71st nationally in total defense last year, and was particularly vulnerable through the air. The cornerbacks are new starters and could be exposed by Vanderbilt’s Jay Cutler.
Without Barclay and with a relatively inexperienced quarterback, Wake Forest will be an uneasy favorite. As it is, they are 0-7-1 as a non-conference favorite and 1-7 ATS as a home fave. Going back 25 seasons, they are 0-11 ATS as a non-conference favorite of 7+ points vs. non-military schools. We may also catch them peeking ahead here, as they have a huge game at Nebraska next week. We note that since 1999, college teams are 0-6 ATS (not as a dog of more than 9 points) vs. non-conference opponents before playing at Nebraska.
The Commodores entered the 2004 season with 21 returning starters and high expectations for competing for the program's first winning season and a bowl game since 1983. Instead, the Commodores lost five of their first six games and blew realistic opportunities to beat Ole Miss, Rutgers and Kentucky. They simply couldn’t handle the pressure they were unaccustomed to. There are no such unrealistic expectations this season, so naturally they should be more relaxed and surprise some teams. Wake Forest may be the first team they catch off guard, as we look for the Demon Deacons to have their hands full with the Commodores. This is likely to be a back-and-forth affair decided late by a TD or less, and while Wake may get the SU win, we look for Vanderbilt to at least beat the spread.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WAKE FOREST 24 VANDERBILT 20