The Real Animal
Atlanta Falcons Under 7½
Entering last year and based on the 2014 season the Atlanta Falcons had the #32 or easiest schedule in the league facing only four of 16 regular season opponents that ended the previous season with a winning record. After a 5-0 start they ended 8-8 overall. They sacked the opposing QB just 19 times or lowest in the league in that category. This year by using the same criteria both Atlanta and San Francisco play the TOUGHEST schedule in the league. The Falcons have to play the two Super Bowl teams (Denver and Carolina) on the road. They did finally address a pass rushing need picking up Dwight Freeney last week but Freeney in his final seasons primarily plays on obvious passing downs only and is somewhat vulnerable to the run. Statistically Matt Ryan had his poorest TD/Interception ratio ever last year at 21-16. Now he is without longtime receiver Roddy White and slot receiver Devin Hester after previously losing tight-end Tony Gonzales a few years back. They overpaid to get former Bengal Mohamed Sanu, the former Cincinnati Bengal. The production they used to get from the tight end position has fallen off dramatically with Jacob Tamme. I still do not believe the Falcons did enough in the trenches in the offseason and they will be at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball. I’m shocked the Falcons kept employing offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. He and Ryan weren’t on the same page last year and Ryan’s numbers really suffered against the easiest schedule. The Falcons tried the same strategy a few years ago of picking up a pass rushing specialist like Freeney when they added Osi Umenyiora in his final seasons. His sack numbers fell off dramatically and I suspect Freeney’s will as well because his numbers were solid in part to the excellent secondary played by Arizona in recent years. While Devonta Freeman is talented at running back I doubt he has the size to withstand an injury-free season. Coach Quinn was criticized and deservedly so after finishing 8-8 after his teams’ 5-0 start. I’ll take the Falcons to go ‘UNDER’ the 7½-win -110.
Alan Harris
San Francisco 49ers Under 5½
If you've followed us in the past, you know that we are big fans of Chip Kelly. He kind of got a bad rap in Philly last season because of his decisions once he was named general manager, but the guy is a good coach that players seem to either love or hate. His system works well at times, but in all honesty it's probably better suited for the college game where he has a much larger roster at his disposal. Putting our Chip Kelly love fest aside, the 2016 49ers are in rebuilding mode, and wins are going to be hard to come by for them. Kelly will be better in that he was for the Eagles as he now just needs to worry about coaching and not making front office decisions. The problem that he is going to face is that there just isn't that much talent on his roster. Both Torrey Smith and Carlos Hyde should thrive in Kelly's up-tempo system, but after that there aren't any playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. The QB situation is a mess with Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick both getting reps with the first team, and the fact that a team thinks that Gabbert can go out and lead an NFL team every Sunday is really all that you need to know. Their defense was in the middle of the pack last season as they allowed 24.2 PPG, and we expect that number to go up in a big way if they are on the field as much as the Eagles defensive unit was on the field in the last two seasons. Throw in the fact that they play in a very tough NFC West and their first five games on their schedule are against the Rams, at Carolina, at Seattle, Dallas and Arizona and we could be looking at a 0-5 record to start the season. If that happens, and there is a very good chance that it does, we can't find six wins for the team in their remaining eleven games so we'll lay the price on the under as we think San Francisco finishes 5-11 at best here in 2016.
AFC East Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Buffalo Bills: Over 8 (+105), Under 8 (-125)
Miami Dolphins: Over 7 (+100), Under 7 (-120)
New England Patriots: Over 10.5 (-140), Under 10.5 (+120)
New York Jets: Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)
To start, all four of these division rivals will have to deal with the NFC West (Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco, L.A. Rams) and the AFC North (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland) as common opponents so it will be a tough year in general for the AFC East. That's why you've got the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins win total numbers all around the .500 mark as one of them looks to dethrone the Patriots reign atop the division.
Obviously, the big news out of New England this summer is that Tom Brady will miss the first four games and QB Jimmy Garoppolo is at the helm. With games at Arizona, vs. Miami, vs. Houston, and vs. Buffalo for New England to start the year, I'm sure the Pats would be glad to get out of there with a 2-2 SU or better mark. That in itself makes the “Under 10.5 wins at +120 for New England look rather attractive.
However, that is most likely not the best bet of these four options because Garoppolo could surprise, and you know once Brady gets back he'll be looking to take out his anger/frustration on his opponent each week.
The best season win total bet in the AFC East from my perspective is on the “over” 7 wins at +100 for the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins beefed up their defensive line this off-season with the addition of Mario Williams to go alongside a healthy Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh. QB Ryan Tannehill is always a bit of a question mark, but he's got a couple of great young WR's at his disposal (Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker), and the duo of Jay Ajayi and Arian Roster at RB could make for a dynamic backfield.
Schedule-wise they open up with a brutal two-game road trip at Seattle and at New England, but going up to Foxborough without having to deal with Brady might be that early break the 2016 Miami Dolphins need. Miami's schedule also softens up dramatically after the bye (Week 8 ), and ending the year with three straight division games could be the difference between the Dolphins playing playoff football or not. This team should be able to find a way to go 8-8 SU or better and the fact that the 'over' 7 is at plus-money, and a flat number of “7” for push purposes puts this wager over the top for me in the AFC East.
Alan Harris
Chicago Bears Over 7.5
For some reason, the Bears seem to be a team that nobody is really talking about as a sleeper going into the 2016 season. They improved from 5-11 in 2014 to 6-10 last year in John Fox's first season on the sideline, and if history is going to repeat itself under Fox, they could be in for a big jump here in 2016. Both the Broncos and Panthers took huge leaps in Fox's second season with Denver, winning 13 games (up from 8 in 2011) while the Panthers won 11 games in 2003, up from seven in the 2002 season. 2015 offensive coordinator Adam Gase has left the team to become the head coach of the Dolphins, which may hurt Jay Cutler, who had a big of resurgence last year. Some of that will attributed to Gase, but it seems to us that Cutler may have figured things under Fox's system. He had his lowest interception total since 2011, and with the team now relying on the run a bit more, Cutler, in turn, is required to make less decisions. The defense should be better than the unit that gave up 24.8 PPG last season since Fox will have more of his guys in his system this year. All that being said, the main reason we think this team can win eight games is their fairly soft schedule. They open the season with games against the Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, Colts and Jags all before they face their first tough NFC North game versus the Packers in Week 7. Are the Bears going to go 6-0 in those games? The answer to that is no, but they are on par or better with all of those teams except the Cowboys in our opinion. They also close out the season with five games against the Niners, Lions, Packers (home), Redskins and Vikings, so there are three winnable games for them to end the season. Figure in the plus-money price on a team that we see with a chance to get to at least 8-8 under Fox.
AFC East Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Buffalo Bills: Over 8 (+105), Under 8 (-125)
Miami Dolphins: Over 7 (+100), Under 7 (-120)
New England Patriots: Over 10.5 (-140), Under 10.5 (+120)
New York Jets: Over 7.5 (-120), Under 7.5 (+100)
To start, all four of these division rivals will have to deal with the NFC West (Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco, L.A. Rams) and the AFC North (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland) as common opponents so it will be a tough year in general for the AFC East. That's why you've got the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins win total numbers all around the .500 mark as one of them looks to dethrone the Patriots reign atop the division.
Obviously, the big news out of New England this summer is that Tom Brady will miss the first four games and QB Jimmy Garoppolo is at the helm. With games at Arizona, vs. Miami, vs. Houston, and vs. Buffalo for New England to start the year, I'm sure the Pats would be glad to get out of there with a 2-2 SU or better mark. That in itself makes the “Under 10.5 wins at +120 for New England look rather attractive.
However, that is most likely not the best bet of these four options because Garoppolo could surprise, and you know once Brady gets back he'll be looking to take out his anger/frustration on his opponent each week.
The best season win total bet in the AFC East from my perspective is on the “over” 7 wins at +100 for the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins beefed up their defensive line this off-season with the addition of Mario Williams to go alongside a healthy Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh. QB Ryan Tannehill is always a bit of a question mark, but he's got a couple of great young WR's at his disposal (Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker), and the duo of Jay Ajayi and Arian Roster at RB could make for a dynamic backfield.
Schedule-wise they open up with a brutal two-game road trip at Seattle and at New England, but going up to Foxborough without having to deal with Brady might be that early break the 2016 Miami Dolphins need. Miami's schedule also softens up dramatically after the bye (Week 8 ), and ending the year with three straight division games could be the difference between the Dolphins playing playoff football or not. This team should be able to find a way to go 8-8 SU or better and the fact that the 'over' 7 is at plus-money, and a flat number of “7” for push purposes puts this wager over the top for me in the AFC East.
AFC West Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Denver Broncos: Over 9.5 (+130), Under 9.5 (-130)
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 9.5 (-125), Under 9.5 (+105)
Oakland Raiders: Over 8.5 (-130), Under 8.5 (+110)
San Diego Chargers: Over 7.5 (+110), Under 7.5 (-130)
The Denver Broncos enter the 2016 NFL season as the reigning Super Bowl Champions, but without Peyton Manning at the helm, and Brock Osweiler gone in a trade, we should see Denver take a big step back this year.
The Broncos will still have that great defense that led them to the championship, but their QB position comes with numerous questions and concerns and until that gets figured out and we see someone like Mark Sanchez have some sort of success, the Broncos are a team that many bettors should take a wait-and-see approach with.
As far as the rest of the AFC West goes, we should see improvement from the other three teams in the division. Based on the season win total numbers alone, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to come out on top of the division, but Oakland and San Diego should be much better than they were a year ago.
Since all four of these teams have common opponents from the NFC South (Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Atlanta), and the AFC South (Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Houston, Tennessee), there are some wins to be had for these improved clubs.
That being said, there is one 'over' bet that stands out for a few reasons and it's the San Diego Chargers “over” 7.5 wins at +110.
Now there are many out there that believe San Diego will be in for another rough year as the team's future in the city remains in question.
Distractions like that are never good for a franchise and that can be a hindering, but on the flip side of that coin is the idea that these players will play their hearts out for the fans of San Diego and the fans will come out in droves to support a competitive team.
Getting to 8-8 SU doesn't exactly make the Chargers a championship contender, but that record would mean they would be competitive and that's what I believe we see from them in 2016.
RB Melvin Gordon struggled mightily in his 1st season, but a full year of off-season work should help this talented back get his footing in this league.
QB Phillip Rivers competitive drive will always keep this team in games, and WR Keenan Allen is on the cusp of breaking out into being one of the league's best at the position.
Defensively, the Chargers could have a few issues as they did last year, but with the Broncos taking a step backwards, they've got to feel that for the first time in a few years, they've got a legitimate shot at winning the division crown.
Looking at San Diego's schedule, there aren't really any stretches of really tough games back-to-back or three in a row and that should serve them well. They do have tough dates @Houston, @Indianapolis, and @Carolina, but that also means they get some of the easier opponents at home.
For an organization that hasn't had much of a home field advantage in recent years, maybe getting those more “winnable” games at home this year will help them out.
Again, you've just got to get to eight wins to win this bet and the (+110) odds on the return are too good to pass up here.
NFC East Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Dallas Cowboys: Over 9.5 (+110), Under 9.5 (-130)
New York Giants: Over 8 (-135), Under 8 (+115)
Philadelphia Eagles: Over 6.5 (+100), Under 6.5 (-120)
Washington Redskins: Over 7.5 (-105), Under 7.5 (-115)
The NFC East has been known for its parity in recent years as we've seen all four of these franchises come away with a division crown the past five years.
During that stretch, we've also seen that the division winner isn't crowned until the second last, or even last week of the season as these four organizations love to battle with one another and do what they can to come out on top.
That prevailing history goes a long way in why all four season win total numbers for these teams are relatively close and we could be in for another “crapshoot” of a season in the NFC East.
However, although the numbers might be tight and three of the four teams have the 'under' option listed as favorites, there is one team that stands out a bit more than the rest and that's the Washington Redskins. Washington won this division in 2015 with a 9-7 SU record and made some noise this spring when they signed DB Josh Norman.
Norman was an integral part of Carolina's run to the Super Bowl last year and many argue that he's one of the top defensive backs in the league. Yet, I'm not so sure Washington has all the pieces or will receive the “good luck” they did again this year and will struggle to make the .500 mark. That's why the best season win total bet in the NFC East is on “under” 7.5 wins for the Washington Redskins.
Washington did what they needed to do to get into the playoffs last year, but the fact that Tony Romo and numerous other Dallas Cowboys went down with injuries significantly helped their cause.
Philadelphia was a complete mess in Chip Kelly's last season there, and the Giants couldn't get out of their own way on numerous occasions, blowing fourth quarter leads in multiple weeks.
All of those scenarios added up to less victories for Washington's rivals – and in some cases direct wins for the Redskins when facing those teams – and it will be tough to see that repeat itself.
Furthermore, Washington's got a very tough schedule (as the rest of this division does) with the AFC North and NFC North on tap, but the Redskins have some of those games lined up back-to-back or sandwiched before or after tough divisional games.
Trips to Baltimore and Cincinnati won't be easy, and being the defending division winner also means dates with Arizona and Carolina are set for the Redskins as well.
Throw in home games against the likes of Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Green Bay (all playoff teams from a year ago), and getting to eight wins might be a pipe dream for Washington this year.
NFC South Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Atlanta Falcons: Over 7.5 (+115), Under 7.5 (-135)
Carolina Panthers: Over 10.5 (-105), Under 10.5 (-115)
New Orleans Saints: Over 7.5 (+110), Under 7.5 (-130)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 7.5 (+130), Under 7.5 (-150)
The Carolina Panthers rode a tremendous defense and a MVP-season from QB Cam Newton all the way to the Super Bowl last year and many are projecting another solid campaign for the Panthers in 2016. Based on these season win total numbers alone, Carolina should run away with the NFC South again, clinch the division by early December and begin their preparation for another deep playoff run. That very well could be the case, but their season win total number is set right where it should be, and I'm not so sure the rest of the NFC South will be as bad as these lines suggest.
Going through this division presented an interesting dilemma. Bettors love to get value and the best number and the Saints, Falcons, and Bucs are all listed at 7.5 wins with the 'over' option at plus-money. Only one of the three franchises eclipsed that number a season ago (Atlanta at 8-8 SU), but the Saints (7-9 SU) and Buccaneers (6-10 SU) weren't too far behind. They've all still got issues to deal with coming into the 2016 season, but I don't believe that all three of them will finish at 7-9 SU or worse. Which is where the interesting dilemma comes in. Which one of those three teams will be the one to get to 8-8 SU?
Tampa Bay has arguably the easiest schedule of the bunch given their last place finish in the division a year ago, but they've still got tough road games @Arizona, @Kansas City, and @Dallas to navigate through. Also, they've got a 2nd year QB in Jameis Winston who showed some very good play a season ago, but will have to continue to improve and make many more adjustments now that the opposition has a full season's worth of film on him. Tampa does offer the highest payout potential too at +130....
New Orleans at 7-9 SU last year were done in by their atrocious defense and there hasn't exactly been a huge upgrade there. Drew Brees is another year older and although he and Sean Payton combine to orchestrate one of the better offenses in the league on a yearly basis, trying to outscore teams 35-32 every week didn't exactly work out well for them last year. It would definitely be a concern again this year should the 'over' 7.5 at +110 be the pick.
And then there is Atlanta, the Falcons got past this number last year but have their own concerns coming into the year as well. They've also got the tougher schedule of the bunch with Green Bay and Philadelphia as non-common opponents, and road games in Denver and Seattle that could be problematic.
So what it comes down to is which one of these three teams do you believe will do the best within the division, possibly beating the Panthers once, and taking care of business against the other two? That's a tough choice in itself, but I'm almost certain one of these three will finish the year 8-8 SU or better and right now you can get plus-money odds on all three of them. That's quite the value for bettors right now, you've just got to do your homework and decide for yourself.
Gun to my head, I'd end up settling on Atlanta 'over' 7.5 wins at +115 because they showed me a little more on both sides of the ball than the other two did a year ago and shouldn't regress much at all with the likes of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones still toeing the sidelines.
NFC North Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Chicago Bears: Over 7.5 (+105), Under 7.5 (-125)
Detroit Lions: Over 7 (-115), Under 7 (-105)
Green Bay Packers: Over 10.5 (-150), Under 10.5 (+130)
Minnesota Vikings: Over 9.5 (-145), Under 9.5 (+125)
The NFC North should be a two-horse race in 2016 with the division crown likely to be decided between Green Bay and Minnesota. Both franchises made the playoffs a season ago, with Minnesota taking the division title, but the Packers are the prohibitive favorites to dethrone Minnesota this year and make a lengthy playoff run. In fact, Green Bay is the favorite in the NFC to make the Super Bowl, and only New England is more of a favorite to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
To get to that point, Green Bay will have to end up winning double-digit games and that's why there win total line is heavily juiced on 'over' 10.5 wins. If anything, the temptation to take the +130 on the 'under' with Green Bay should exist, but it's clearly not the best season win total bet of these four division teams.
The honor of being the best bet in the NFC North belongs to the Minnesota Vikings on 'over' 9.5 wins at -145.
Minnesota surprised a lot of people with their 11-5 SU season and division crown in 2015, only to see a successful year be remembered by a botched FG attempt in their Wild Card game. But that missed kick by Blair Walsh has likely motivated this whole Vikings team to give themselves another chance at glory and it begins in Week 1 of 2016. They've still got a suffocating defense that will be Top-10 again this year, and RB Adrian Peterson still plans on being ultra-productive as he gets further away from that 30-year-old mark.
QB Teddy Bridgewater did his part in racking up those 11 victories last season and another year under his belt should only allow him to keep improving. Double-digit victories is a very real possibility for this team and given the juice on this price, odds makers believe it's more likely to happen than not.
Schedule-wise, Minnesota has the opportunity to get off to a blazing start with three of their first five at home and trips to Tennessee and Carolina mixed in. After that comes the bye week, but then all of their non-division home games come against the better teams on their schedule like Arizona, Dallas, and Indianapolis. Of the two divisions Minnesota and the rest of the NFC North have in common (AFC South, NFC East), Minnesota's road games in those scenarios are all against the projected “weaker” teams in those divisions and that's a huge advantage.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. Jets Under 7½ +100
If you spend nearly your entire offseason hoping and praying that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be your starting quarterback, you are likely going to get what's coming to you. That's exactly where the New York Jets find themselves because “The Beard” is back after last season's huge collapse! Fitz threw three interceptions in the final three series of the season to sink the Jets playoff hopes AND THEY WANTED HIM BACK! With Tom Brady's four-game suspension, expectations are unusually high around the AFC East with the belief there might finally be a crack in the foundation of New England's decade plus dominance in the division. While we're not delusional enough to believe the Pats will fold without Brady, we can't blame the rest of the AFC East for thinking they've got a chance but the Jets' season win total is over 7½ -130. A laughable number considering Gang Green might be hard pressed to win four games this season. Let’s also not forget that the posted number of wins of 7½ does not take into consideration the inevitable injuries that occur during the season. The Jets are not deep enough to overcome said injuries. The Jets chose to surround Fitzpatrick with another Bears reject in Matt Forte, a back who’s best years are clearly behind him. Throw in a head case like Brandon Marshall, who is capable of dividing a locker on a moment's notice and you've got recipe for disaster on the field. When things get tough, head-cases cause trouble and there could be a whole lot of that very early this season for the Jets. The New York media will feast off a guy like Marshall. The cherry on top of this shit sundae is an incompetent head coach in Todd Bowles
As for the aforementioned Brady suspension, the Jets will not benefit, as they don't see the Pats until late November and they could be out of the division race long before that with a brutal slate of games to open the season. The Jets could go 0-6 or worse to start the year. They open the season at home versus the Bengals (a tough game to be sure), then play four of their next five on the road in some nasty barns. New York plays at Buffalo in Week 2 with a Kansas City chaser in Week 3. Then, after a home date with Seattle in Week 4, they head out for back-to-back roadies in Pittsburgh and Arizona, only to come back home to face the Ravens in Week 7. The Jets hit the road again for games at Miami and Cleveland, that won't be gimmes, before the L.A. Rams visit MetLife right before the Jets’ bye. At best, the Jets might be 3-7 heading to the break but that's being optimistic. They could just as easily be 2-8 or even 1-9. They close out the last six games of the year with the Patriots x2, Bills, Dolphins, and Colts and they also have one more brutal trip out west to play the 49ers, a spot that is always tough for an East Coast team. It is very likely to be extremely difficult for the Jets to sniff the seven-game win mark, let alone go over it and we certainly have no interest in paying a premium to do so. It is of our humble opinion that this is a bet that must be made.
NFC West Win Totals
By Sportsbook.ag
Arizona Cardinals: Over 9.5 (-235), Under 9.5 (+190)
Los Angeles Rams: Over 7.5 (+185), Under 7.5 (-220)
San Francisco 49ers: Over 5.5 (+100), Under 5.5 (-120)
Seattle Seahawks: Over 10.5 (-130), Under 10.5 (+110)
The first thing that stands out when you look at the NFC West season win total numbers is the fact that there are a lot of big numbers in terms of price out there. Both the Cardinals and Rams have options that are over -200, and no matter how confident you may be in a bet, that's always a steep price to pay. A loss there means you've got to make up typically two bets somewhere else for your bankroll and that's definitely not an ideal position to be in.
Aside from that, the win total numbers suggest that the Seahawks and Cardinals will duke it out for the division crown and that's tough to dispute. The 49ers simply don't have the developed talent throughout their roster to be considered a contender, and the Rams and their new digs in LA have that to adjust to along with likely giving the bulk of the snaps to a rookie QB. This isn't about picking a division champion though and those two teams have already seen plenty of action on their season win total numbers.
However, the best bet on this board in terms of both price and odds has to be taking the Seattle Seahawks 'under' 10.5 wins at +110.
First off, Seattle's got the highest number here and while they will likely be a good team once again, asking them to go 11-5 SU with the schedule they've got is tough. The Seahawks have to go to New England (when Brady is back), to Green Bay, to New Orleans (who always play well at home no matter the record), and have their home-and-home with Arizona could result in 3+ losses alone. Throw in the rest of the AFC East (Miami, Buffalo, NYJ) and NFC South (Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina), and the glory days of Seattle running over this NFC West division like they did a few years ago may be over with.
Yes, Seattle still has many of the key players from their back-to-back Super Bowl teams, but RB Marshawn Lynch is gone and while Thomas Rawls did admirably filling in for Lynch last year, it remains to be seen what he can do as the #1 guy and if he can be durable enough to last the entire season in that role.
Admittedly, this wager could end up being a nail-biter as Seattle could easily finish with 10 wins, but sometimes that 11th one is hard to get. The home dominance we saw from Seattle a few years back has been cracked with “just” a 5-3 SU mark in the Pacific Northwest a year ago, and 10-6 SU might be the record Seattle finishes with this season. Throw in the +110 odds and this has got to be one of the better season win total bets in the NFC West.