NFL Betting Recap - Week 7

Betting Recap - Week 7
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 7 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-3
Against the Spread 7-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 4-8
Against the Spread 4-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-5-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 63-39-1
Against the Spread 43-58-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 45-57-1
Against the Spread 37-64-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 49-53-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Saints (+4.5, ML +190) at Bears, 36-25
Cardinals (+3.5, ML +165) at Giants, 27-21
Ravens (+3, ML +135) at Seahawks, 30-16

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-6) vs. Raiders, 42-24
Jaguars (-4.5) at Bengals, 27-17
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos, 30-6
Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles, 37-10
Rams (-3) at Falcons, 37-10

A Little East Coast Swing

-- The Arizona Cardinals (+3.5, ML +165) kick the road and took care of the New York Giants by a 27-21 score, as rookie QB Kyler Murray outdueled fellow first-year QB Daniel Jones in the raindrops left over from the remnants of Tropical Storm Nestor. The Cardinals have now won and covered three in a row, and they're 3-3-1 SU and 5-2 ATS overall. The 'under' cashed for the second time in three trips to the Eastern Time Zone for the Cards, too. They make on final trip in Week 10 to the Eastern Time Zone, and that's after the clocks change, too, when they meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The San Francisco 49ers (-10) also headed east and were stuck in the muck and mire at FedEx Field in Landover, Md. against the Washington Redskins. In fact, this game was played on a natural grass surface, as opposed to the field turf at MetLife Stadium, so it was even more sloppy and muddy. The game featured no touchdowns on either side, and just three field goals by the 49ers, serving as yet another reminder to always double-check the weather before finalizing those wagers each week. The 49ers have been to the Eastern Time Zone three times in the first seven weeks, hitting the 'under' twice. They return one more time to the Eastern Time Zone in Week 13 when they battle the Baltimore Ravens.

Another west coast team visiting the Eastern Time Zone was the Los Angeles Rams against the Atlanta Falcons. Under the dome, the Rams and Falcons needn't worry about weather-related issues, but this game hit the 'under'. It was actually no fault of the Rams, as they racked up 37 points, but the Falcons lost QB Matt Ryan (ankle) to an injury in the second half, and they managed just 10 points to go well 'under' (54.5) the total. Like the other two NFC West teams above, the Rams have hit the 'under' twice in three trips East, with one more trip to meet the Pittsburgh Steelers on Week 10 after a bye.

Huge Shock

-- If you were holding a Los Angeles Chargers (+2) ticket you're probably still shaking your head. The Bolts worked it all the way down to the 1-yard line of the Tennessee Titans inside the final minute. A long play to RB Austin Ekeler was ruled down at the 1 after instant replay. Then, RB Melvin Gordon ran it in, only to be ruled down short of the goal by replay. He got another crack at it and fumbled short of the line, as the Titans held on for the 23-20 victory. At least the total wasn't also in play, too.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Rams-Falcons (54.5) game, which went well under. The other four games on the board with totals of 48 or higher also went under, including the Cardinals-Giants (50) battle, the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos (49.5) game with a total of just 36 points, and the Baltimore Ravens-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) contest which had a total of 46 points.

The gift of the day was in the Jacksonville Jaguars-Cincinnati Bengals (44), as the Bengals were overmatched all day, but they kept fighting to the end for 'over' bettors. QB Andy Dalton scored a late rushing touchdown with :23 remaining, cutting the lead to 27-17, putting the total over by just a half-point at some shops, and an unfortunate push at others. In fact, if Scott Van Pelt includes NFL in bad beats this week on his ESPN segment, this game HAS to be on there. In fact, there were just 27 total points on the board until Jacksonville had a pick-six with 4:18 to go.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (37) game. This game was supposed to be a snoozefest, but the Saints nearly took care of the over themselves. For the most part this game was out of hand, although the Bears actually successfully covered an onside kick late, and nearly had a second one, making things interesting at the end. When the dust clear, there was a total of 61 points on the board, the third-highest total of points in any game on the schedule.

-- The 'under' went 2-0 in the first two primetime games of Week 7, with the Monday Night Football contest between the New England Patriots-New York Jets (43.5) still pending. The 'over' is just 5-16 (23.8%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) dislocated his kneecap and he is expected to miss at least a couple of weeks after exiting Thursday's game in Denver on a quarterback sneak. Enter QB Matt Moore for head coach Andy Reid, who has had success with backup quarterbacks before.

-- As mentioned, Matt Ryan (ankle) left Sunday's game and he is set to have an MRI on Monday to determine the severity.

-- Lions RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) exited early and he will have further testing to determine his availability for Week 8.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) left Sunday's game in Detroit due to a hamstring issue, and he will have a precautionary MRI. He feels optimistic he'll be ready for Thursday's game against the Redskins.

Looking Ahead

-- Vikings QB Kirk Cousins will face his former team, the Redskins, on Thursday night in a home battle at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Redskins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on a Thursday, while the Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances on Thursday.

-- The Seahawks travel east to meet the Falcons, and they might be facing QB Matt Schaub if Ryan isn't ready to go. Unlike those teams mentioned above, Seattle has hit the 'over' twice in their two trips into the Eastern Time Zone already this season. Seattle has alternated non-covers and covers in their first seven games, going 3-4 ATS so far.

-- The winless Bengals and Rams will square off at Wembley Stadium in London in the third International Series game of the season. The favorite/undedog is 1-1 SU/ATS so far through the first two games in London, but the 'over' has cashed in each of the two England games. The last time the Bengals were in England they tied the Redskins 27-27 at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 30, 2016. The Rams lost at Twickenham Stadium in that same season a week earlier by a 17-10 count to the Giants. They're 1-2 SU/ATS in their three previous U.K. battles.

-- The Bills hit their first 'over' of the season in a win over the Dolphins in Week 7. The Bills and 49ers have the most 'under' results at 5-1. Buffalo hosts Philadelphia in Orchard Park on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, the Niners host the Panthers coming off a bye.

NFL Week 8 opening odds and early moves: With Chiefs minus Mahomes, Packers are road faves
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes won't be slinging for Kansas City against Green Bay in Week 8 and likely a couple weeks beyond that. The Chiefs opened as 3-point home underdogs for the Sunday night clash.

Week 8 of the NFL season is on deck, featuring an NFC-AFC clash that’s missing one of the league’s biggest stars. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs (+3)

Under the Sunday night lights, Kansas City won’t have prime-time quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a dislocated knee in the second quarter at Denver in Week 7. The Chiefs (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) still went on to win easily 30-6 as 3-point favorites behind backup Matt Moore, but will most certainly face a stiffer challenge minus Mahomes this week.

Green Bay stubbed its toe at home in the Week 4 Thursday nighter, but has otherwise been spotless this season. The Packers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) rolled over Oakland 42-24 as 5.5-point favorites in Week 7.

The opening number was a healthy distance away from last week’s look-ahead line for this contest.

“The look-ahead number was Chiefs -4 before the Mahomes injury,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “We reopened with Green Bay a 3-point fave. Keep an eye on the other players Kansas City has been missing the last few weeks. They have a number of other key veterans that should be back soon.”

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5)

New Orleans was without Drew Brees the past five weeks, yet went 5-0 SU and ATS in that stretch to stand atop the NFC South. The Saints (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) went off as 4-point underdogs at Chicago in Week 7 and emerged with a 36-25 victory.

Arizona is coming along much better than expected under rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury and rookie QB Kyler Murray. The Cardinals (3-3-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) nabbed a 27-21 road win over the New York Giants catching 3.5 points to win and cash for the third straight week.

There’s a chance Brees returns this week from a thumb injury, but Murray thinks that might be more talk than anything else.

“We opened this game Saints -7.5 and are up to -8.5,” Murray said. “I don’t see the Saints pressing Brees into action here. They have been winning without him and have a bye next week.”

Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

San Francisco is one of just two remaining undefeated outfits, joining New England in that respect. The 49ers (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) battled through the rain at Washington in Week 7, slogging out a 9-0 victory as 10-point faves.

Carolina ripped off four consecutive SU and ATS wins without Cam Newton, who’s been out with a foot injury. The Panthers (4-2 SU and ATS), coming off their bye week, rode backup Kyle Allen to a 37-26 Week 6 win laying 2 points at Tampa Bay.

“The 49ers are 6-0 SU, but they’re going to need more from their offense to keep winning deep into the season,” Murray said. “The Panthers are coming into this game off their bye week. It could be a tricky spot for San Francisco.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)

One team is putting itself in playoff position, the other is sub-.500, but it’s a bit of a surprise as to who’s who.

Buffalo is out to a 5-1 SU start (4-2 ATS), with the only loss a more-than-respectable setback to New England. The Bills struggled through three quarters against winless Miami, but scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 31-21 giving a hefty 17 points at home.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia dropped two in a row and four of its last six to fall to 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. The Eagles went to Dallas as 3-point underdogs and got run 37-10 in the Week 7 Sunday nighter.

“It’s off the board now, but we opened Bills -1.5,” Murray said, noting this game was taken down ahead of Philly’s Sunday night loss, but it will go back up Monday morning. “The Eagles are on the third of three straight tough road games, after playing at Minnesota and at Dallas the last two weeks. The Eagles need to get healthy quickly, or they will fall out of the NFC playoff picture.”