The 8-seed Miami Heat head back to Boston to face the 1-seed Celtics on Wednesday night at 7:30 PM ET on TNT. It’s Game 5 of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Can the Heat cover the 14-point spread as road underdogs? Keep reading for our Heat vs. Celtics betting prediction.
Boston leads the series 3-1.
The Miami Heat went 46-36 straight up in the regular season and are 2-4 straight up in the postseason this year. The Heat are 43-43-2 ATS this season.
The Boston Celtics went 64-18 straight up in the regular season and are 3-1 straight up in the postseason this year. The Celtics are 44-37-5 ATS this season.
Heat vs. Celtics Matchup & Betting Odds
501 Miami Heat (+14) at 502 Boston Celtics (-14); o/u 199.5
7:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, May 1, 2024
TD Garden, Boston, MA
TV: TNT
Heat vs. Celtics Public Betting Information
Our NBA Public Betting Information page indicates that 78% of public bettors are currently backing the Celtics when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Heat Daily Fantasy Spin
Heat guards Terry Rozier (neck), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip), and forward Jimmy Butler (knee) will all miss Wednesday’s Game 5 showdown with the Celtics. Butler averaged a team-high 20.8 points per game during the regular season while Rozier chipped in 16.4 points per game in that same stretch.
Jaquez had been filling in admirably for Butler this postseason to the tune of 12.8 points per game. With those three players out, Miami will likely give more minutes to a combination of Duncan Robinson, Haywood Highsmith, Patty Mills, and Delon Wright.
Boston Celtics Daily Fantasy Spin
Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis will miss Wednesday’s game and likely several contests after that. He is nursing a right calf strain. Porzingis has been integral to Boston’s success this season as he averaged 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game in 57 regular season starts.
With Porzingis out of the lineup, Boston big men Al Horford, Luke Kornet, and Xavier Tillman could all be candidates for increased roles in Game 5 and going forward.
Heat vs. Celtics NBA Betting Trends
Miami is 26-29-1 ATS when playing on 1 day of rest this season.
Miami is 21-27-1 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest this season.
Boston is 23-18-2 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Boston is 33-29-4 ATS after a win this season.
Heat vs. Celtics NBA Prediction:
Without Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier, or Jaime Jaquez Jr., I think Miami is finished. They will probably have trouble scoring and keeping the game competitive without those players in the lineup. Additionally, the Heat’s three losses in this series have come by an average margin of 18 points per game. Miami’s lone win in this series came in Game 2. The Heat shot a blistering 53.5% from beyond the arc in that contest. I can’t see them shooting like that again on Wednesday.
Boston won’t have Kristaps Porzingis for this contest, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Celtics backup center Al Horford should be able to fill in ably. Horford is playing the same amount of minutes (26.3) as Porzingis during this postseason, and he’s only averaging 4.3 fewer points per game. What’s more, the Celtics are 20-18-3 ATS when playing an opponent on equal rest and 43-35-5 ATS as a favorite this season. As a favorite of 8 points or more, the Celtics are 4-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games. I think Boston will win this game big and comfortably move on to the next round of the playoffs on Wednesday night.