Betting Recap - Week 15
December 18, 2017
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
Overall Notes
National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-0-2*
Against the Spread 9-5-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 7-7-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
*No underdogs cashed straight up, although Rams (+1) were underdogs 30 minutes before kickoff before closing as a pick 'em. Chiefs (+1) were also underdogs for a majority of the week before closing as a late pick 'em on Saturday.
The largest favorite to cover
Vikings (-13) vs. Bengals, 34-7
Jaguars (-10.5) vs. Texans, 45-7
Ravens (-7) at Browns, 27-10
Lions (-5) vs. Bears, 20-10
Controversy reigns supreme
-- It was a weekend fraught with controversy, and bettors also found themselves twisting in the wind awaiting the decision of on-field officials and replay officials in two key games. In the New England Patriots-Pittsburgh Steelers key AFC showdown, Ben Roethlisberger appeared to hit Jesse James with a touchdown with just a few seconds remaining in regulation to take a 30-27 lead, pending the extra point. However, after instant review, it was determined James did not completely control a ball which certainly looked like a catch. Perhaps the ball wiggled slightly, but the call on the field was a touchdown and it probably should have remained as such. Two plays later Roethlisberger made a terrible decision, throwing an interception on a deflection in the end zone, and the Patriots held on for a win. Instead of the underdogs and moneyline bettors cashing Steelers tickets, it was the Patriots covering the 2 1/2 closing number as favorites. In addition, the turnover and lack of a touchdown helped 'under' (53) bettors hang on. It is something people will talk about for a long time.
-- The Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders battled to the very end and there were two things setting Twitter abuzz after the dust settled and the result was determined. First off, there was a measurement for first down where the ball and marker appeared to be even. Referee Gene Steratore, working his first game involving the Cowboys since the infamous Dez Bryant 'not a catch' playoff game against the Packers, actually folded a piece of paper or an index card to see if it would fit between the football and first-down stick. Head coach Jack Del Rio lost his mind, but the Raiders still had a chance down the stretch. In the closing seconds, Derek Carr was stretched for the end zone and a potential go-ahead touchdown, but he lost control of the football around the 1-yard line and the ball was fumbled, hit the pylon and was correctly ruled a touchback by the letter of the law. However, it's an idiotic rule that needs to be changed, perhaps to giving the fumbling team the ball at the spot of the fumble, similarly to when a player fumbles the ball forward, then recovers and cannot advance it - moving back to the spot of the fumble. And don't get me started on the 55-yard spot foul pass interference which gave the Raiders a chance to win in the first place. The 55-yard penalty was the longest penalty in the NFL this season, and that's another rule that should be changed, similar to college, where a penalty for pass interference is just 15 yards. I mean, even a blow to the head is 15 yards. Offensive pass interference 60 yards down the field would only be marked off as 15 yards back. So how does this make sense again?
Total Recall
-- As mentioned, the Patriots-Steelers game (53) had a controversial ending affecting the total. That game had the highest total on the board, by the way. The L.A. Rams-Seattle Seahawks game (47.5) was headed for an 'over' result early, as the Rams were dominating 34-0 at half. However, the scoring slowed down and 'under' bettors suddenly had a chance. At the end of three quarters it was 40-7, but still under. There were no field goals or touchdowns in the fourth quarter, so good news and a miracle win, right? Wrong. A penalty in the end zone on Seattle's offense resulted in a safety spoiling the fun. Officially, the game went 'over' by 1 1/2 points.
-- Three other games had totals of (47), L.A. Chargers-Kansas City, Green Bay-Carolina and N.Y. Jets-New Orleans. Saturday's AFC West went 'under' thanks to a late defensive stop. The Packers-Panthers featured plenty of offense and easily went over, while the Jets-Saints game probably shouldn't have hit. With 1:51 left, the Jets scored to cut the lead to 24-19, missing the two-point conversion. After a failed onside kick attempt, Mark Ingram rattled off a 50-yard touchdown run to seal the win - and send the game 'over' after the were just 37 total points on the board at the two-minute warning. Ouch.
-- There was just one game on the board with a total in the 30's -- Houston-Jacksonville (39.5). The Jaguars hopped on the Texans early and often, building a 31-0 lead. The second half wasn't high scoring by any means, but the 'over' had cashed by the end of the third quarter with the Jags leading 38-7. The game finished 45-7, well over the mark.
-- The 'Under' finished 3-0 in the three primetime games during Week 15, and the 'over' is 25-21-1 (54.3%) through the first 46 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Atlanta Falcons-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (48.5) game pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (knee) sustained a knee injury, but he has avoided a torn anterior cruciate ligament and/or major injury
-- Steelers WR Antonio Brown (calf) suffered a partially torn left calf muscle and he is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season, perhaps being ready to return in the postseason.
Looking Ahead
-- The Vikings will travel to meet the Packers in a rematch of the Oct. 15 meeting at U.S. Bank Stadium. Green Bay hopes that doesn't end in similar fashion, as that was the game Aaron Rodgers suffered his fractured collarbone injury. The Vikings won 23-10 and covered in an 'under' result. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four for Green Bay, and 6-1 over their past seven outings. While the 'under' hit in the first meeting, and is 4-1 in Minnesota's past five at home, the 'over' is 4-1 in their past five on the road.
-- The Saints host the Falcons in a rematch of a Week 14 game last Thursday. The Falcons held on for a 20-17 win and cover at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia. The Saints have lost and failed to cover their past two on the road, but they're 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS across their past six games on their home field.
-- The Patriots are double-digit favorites against the visiting Bills in a rematch of a Dec. 3 battle in Buffalo. That game, which resulted in a 23-3 win by the Patriots as 7 1/2-point favorites, will be remembered mostly for Rob Gronkowski's cheap shot on Tre'Davious White which resulted in Gronk serving a one-game suspension. He returned Sunday in Pittsburgh, and looked fresh, which is bad for the rest of the NFL. The Patriots enter the game on a roll, going 8-1 SU over their past nine, and 7-1 ATS over their past eight outings.
-- The Panthers host the Buccaneers in Charlotte. Carolina won a defensive battle in Tampa Bay back on Oct. 29 by a 17-3 score, but the 'over' has cashed in five straight for the Panthers lately as their offense has taken off. The Panthers also roll into this game with a 6-1 ATS mark, and the hot streak started with that road win against the Bucs. Meanwhile, Tampa has lost and failed to cover in each of the past three, while the 'over' is 3-1 in their past four outings.