Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 11/3/19
Texans (5-3) vs Jaguars (4-4) (@ London)— Season series has been swept last eight years; Houston (-7) won first meeting 13-12 in Week 2; neither team gained 300 TY, Texans’ only TD drive was 11 yards. Losing side scored 12 of fewer points in last five series games. Houston won three of last four games, despite allowing 27.5 ppg; they trailed five of last six games at halftime. Jaguars allowed 17 or less points in last three games; in their wins, they’re +8 in turnovers, in losses, -7. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Texans are 13-4 ATS in pre-bye games, winning/covering last four; Jaguars won three of last four pre-bye tilts. Dogs covered six of last eight series games; Texans are 4-6 ATS in last 10 games as a series fave. JJ Watt is out for the year.
Redskins (1-7) @ Bills (5-2)— Washington scored total of 36 points in last five games, with no TD’s on 14 drives in last two games; they’re 13-9 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog, 2-1 TY. Redskins’ last five games stayed under the total. Buffalo allowed 21-31 points in splitting last two games, after giving up 14 ppg in first five games; they’re 0-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. Since ’12, Bills are 33-25-1 ATS coming off a loss; five of their seven games stayed under total. Buffalo won six of last seven series games, losing last meeting 35-25; Redskins lost last three visits here, but also haven’t been here since ’03. AFC East favorites are 5-3 ATS this year outside the division, 3-3 at home; NFC East road underdogs are 5-2 ATS.
Titans (4-4) @ Panthers (4-3)— Tennessee scored 23+ points in their wins, 17 or less in losses (7 or less in 3 of 4 losses); they’re 2-0 in Tannehill starts, converting 11-24 third down plays- five of their last seven games stayed under total. Titans are 11-21 ATS in last 32 games as a road dog, 1-2 TY. Carolina won four of its last five games but lost two of three at home; they’re 9-11 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY. Panthers converted only 9 of last 40 third down plays; their last three games went over total. Home side lost four of last five series games; Titans won 37-17/30-3 in last two visits to Charlotte. AFC South road underdogs are 8-2 ATS outside their division; NFC South non-divisional favorites are 2-5 ATS, 2-4 at home.
Bears (3-4) @ Eagles (4-4)— Eagles won last four series games, last of which was 16-15 upset (+6.5) win in LY’s playoffs, when they tipped a last-second Chicago FG to seal the win. Bears lost last two visits here, 54-11/31-3. Chicago lost its last three games overall, allowing 25.7 ppg; they won both their true road games- this is their first true road game since Week 3. Chicago is 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog; they allowed 15 or fewer pints in their three wins, are 0-4 when allowing more than 15 points. Philly ran ball for 218 yards in LW’s 31-13 win, after running for 102.3 ypg the three games before that; Iggles are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY. Philly scored 31+ points in its wins, 18.5 ppg in their losses.
Vikings (6-2) @ Chiefs (5-3)— Chiefs lost last three home games but still lead AFC West; backup QB Moore played well in 31-24 home loss to Packers LW, but he ain’t Mahomes (check status), and has started only six games since 2011. Chiefs allowed 28+ points in four of last six games; they’re 17-19 ATS in last 36 home games. Vikings won last four games, have extra prep time after LW’s Thursday win; they were held to 16-6 points in their losses, are 6-0 scoring more than 16. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 26-18 ATS on the road. Home side won last five series games; Vikings lost last four trips to Arrowhead, all by 5 or fewer points. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road; AFC West teams are 10-12, 3-7 at home.
Jets (1-6) @ Dolphins (0-7)— How are the Jets a road favorite over anyone? Adam Gase coaches against his old team for first time here; he was 23-26 SU in Miami. Gang Green already has five loses by 14+ points; they’re been outscored 93-35 in three road games, are 3-5-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite. Jets converted only 9 of last 70 third down plays. Short week for 0-7 Miami team that covered its last three games, but has been outscored 130-20 in second half of games this season. Dolphins are -14 in turnovers, with only one takeaway in last four games; five of their last six games stayed under total. Dolphins won last three series games, by 3-8-7 points; Jets lost their last two visits here. Miami is 6-4 ATS in last ten games as a series underdog
Colts (5-2) @ Steelers (3-4)— Indy won three in row, five of last six games; they’re 3-0 ATS on road this year, with only road loss in OT vs Chargers in Week 1. Colts allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, are 5-0 allowing fewer than 30. Steelers won three of last four games after an 0-3 start, covering four of last five; they’re 7-10 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY. Wasn’t impressed by Monday’s win over a hideous Miami team, but Steelers have had a positive turnover ratio in each of their last six games (+9 for year). Pitt won last five series games, with last loss in ’08; Colts lost 14 of last 15 visits here, with that ’08 game the only win. AFC South non-divisional road teams are 9-2 ATS; AFC North home teams are 0-11 ATS.
Lions (3-3-1) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland lost its last two games, allowing 42-27 points; this is their first home game since Week 2. Raiders are 5-9-2 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Four of their last five games went over. Detroit lost three of its last four games; six of their seven games were decided by 6 or fewer points. Under Patricia, Lions are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs, 5-4 in games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Four of their last five games went over the total. Detroit allowed 91 points in last three games; they’ve held only one team (LAC) under 23. Detroit won last four series games, including last two visits here; their last loss to Oakland was in ’96. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road.
Buccaneers (2-5) @ Seahawks (6-2)— These teams came into the NFL together in ’76. Tampa Bay is playing its 5th straight game away from home; they’ve turned ball over 11 times on 29 drives the last two games (-9)- maybe Arians should call the plays? Bucs scored 32.5 ppg in four games with no or one turnover; they lost other three games by 14-16-4 points. Tampa is 2-5-4 ATS in last 11 games on artificial turf. Seattle won four of last five games but split their four home games, with both wins by a single point; they’re 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this year, 4-11-1 since ’17. Home side won five of last six series games; Bucs lost four of last six visits to Seattle. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 5-6 ATS; NFC West home faves are 2-6.
Browns (2-5) @ Broncos (2-6)— Denver didn’t allow an offensive TD in either of its wins; they’re 0-6 when giving up more than 13 points. Flacco (neck) is out; Brandon Allen gets his first NFL action- he started for 2.5 years at Arkansas in SEC. Backup QB Rypien also has no NFL snaps. Broncos are 1-3 at home, with two losses with 2 points- they’re 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog. Six of their eight games went under. Cleveland lost its last three games, giving up 30 ppg; they split their four road games. Since 2013, Browns are 1-3 as road favorites, 1-0 TY, when they beat Jets, who also had a backup QB playing. Denver won seven of last eight series games, losing 17-16 to the Browns LY- they won four of last five meetings played here.
Packers (7-1) @ Chargers (3-5)— Packers won last four games, scoring 32.5 ppg; they converted 14 of last 23 3rd down plays. GB won/covered all three road games, is 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite- five of their last six games went over. Chargers lost three of last four games; only one of their eight games was decided by more than 7 points. LA is 1-3 at home, with only win in OT; their home losses are by 7-7-7 points. Bolts are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog. Green Bay won 10 of last 11 series games; Packers won their last six visits to San Diego- hard to imagine stadium in Carson won’t be full of mostly Packer fans. NFC North teams are 11-7-1 ATS outside the division, 4-2-1 on road; AFC West teams are 10-12, 3-7 at home.
Patriots (8-0) @ Ravens (5-2)— New England defense has allowed only four TD’s on 96 drives, while scoring four TD’s of their own; they’re 17-10 ATS in last 27 games as a road favorite, 3-1 TY. Only one of its eight wins was by less than 14 points; their turnover rate is +17. Only close game (@ Buffalo) was only time they lost field position battle. Ravens are 13-4 ATS in last 17 post-bye games; they won last three games, scoring 26.3 ppg; they’ve scored 23+ points in every game this year. Baltimore is 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog. Six of eight NE games stayed under total. NE won 10 of last 13 series games (2-2 in playoffs); Patriots won three of last four visits to Baltimore. Average total in last three series games is 54.
Cowboys (4-3) @ Giants (2-6)— Dallas (-7) beat Giants 35-17 in season opener, with five TD drives of 75+ yards; they averaged 12.7 yards/pass attempt, scoring three TD’s of 20+ yards. Cowboys won last five series games, winning 30-10/36-35 in last two series games here- they lost here 24-22 to Jets three weeks ago. Dallas lost three of last four games overall; they’ve scored 31+ points in all four of their wins, 10-24-22 in their losses. Last two years, Cowboys are 1-3 ATS as a road favorite; they’re 5-3 ATS last eight times they were favored over the Giants. Big Blue lost its last four games, losing last two weeks by 6-5 points; under Shurmur, Giants are 1-7 ATS when getting points at home. Last four games, NYG opponents are 26-53 on third down.
NFL
Dunkel
Week 9
Thursday, October 31
San Francisco @ Arizona
Game 301-302
October 31, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
143.955
Arizona
124.276
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 19 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 9 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-9 1/2); Over
Sunday, November 3
Houston @ Jacksonville
Game 451-452
November 3, 2019 @ 9:30 am
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.691
Jacksonville
130.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-1 1/2); Over
Chicago @ Philadelphia
Game 457-458
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.777
Philadelphia
135.796
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4 1/2); Under
Minnesota @ Kansas City
Game 459-460
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
139.626
Kansas City
134.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); N/A
Tennessee @ Carolina
Game 455-456
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
131.064
Carolina
132.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+4); Over
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Game 463-464
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
136.731
Pittsburgh
132.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+1); Under
NY Jets @ Miami
Game 461-462
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
118.715
Miami
117.038
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 1 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5 1/2); Under
Washington @ Buffalo
Game 453-454
November 3, 2019 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
122.350
Buffalo
128.327
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 10
37
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+10); Over
Tampa Bay @ Seattle
Game 467-468
November 3, 2019 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
130.649
Seattle
129.201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+6 1/2); Under
Detroit @ Oakland
Game 465-466
November 3, 2019 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.880
Oakland
129.994
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+2); Under
Cleveland @ Denver
Game 469-470
November 3, 2019 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
129.042
Denver
131.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 3
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1); Under
Green Bay @ LA Chargers
Game 471-472
November 3, 2019 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
139.371
LA Chargers
129.331
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under
New England @ Baltimore
Game 473-474
November 3, 2019 @ 8:20 pm
Dunkel Rating:
New England
146.367
Baltimore
136.030
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3 1/2); Under
Monday, November 4
Dallas @ NY Giants
Game 475-476
November 4, 2019 @ 8:15 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.851
NY Giants
124.162
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 8 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
48
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Under
NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 9:
Road Teams: 73-46-2 ATS
Home Teams: 46-73-2 ATS
Favorites: 50-69-2 ATS
Underdogs: 69-50-2 ATS
Home Faves: 29-52-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 17-21 ATS
Road Faves: 21-17 ATS
Road Dogs: 52-29-2 ATS
O/U: 55-66
NFL's Top ATS Teams:
t1. Patriots 6-2 ATS
t1. Packers 6-2 ATS
t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
5. Niners 5-2 ATS
6. Colts 4-2-1 ATS
NFL's Worst ATS Teams:
32. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t24. Jets 2-5 ATS
t24. Bucs 2-5 ATS
t24. Browns 2-5 ATS
t24. Bears 2-5 ATS
t24. Ravens 2-5 ATS
BETTING ON THE BEST
Lamar Jackson went into Seattle in Week 7 and knocked off the league’s frontrunner for MVP on the back of 116 yards rushing on 14 carries. Jackson is doing things on the ground that have never been done in the NFL, averaging 101 yards on 14 carries and 0.5 TDs over his last four games. This stretch has seen the Baltimore Ravens quarterback go 4-0 Over/Under for his rushing-yard total.
Jackson will have his toughest test this year versus the New England Patriots in Baltimore on Sunday night. The Pats haven’t allowed more than 18 rushing yards to a QB since Week 5, but New England hasn’t faced a talent like Jackson, who leads the league in yards per rush at 6.9 with that number jumping to 7.7 at home.
Buffalo’s Josh Allen ran for 26 yards on five carries and a score in just over two quarters in Week 4 versus the Pats, an indicator that New England can be susceptible to QB running. Grab the Over on Jackson’s rushing total on any number below 73 yards.
PRIMETIME 6-POINT TEASER
SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA (SF -4): Although we think it will be difficult for San Francisco to cover double digits on a short week, four points are much more realistic against an Arizona team that is crippled at running back. The Cardinals also don’t match up well versus the Niners defensively as Kliff Kingsbury’s defensive unit ranks 26th in rush DVOA defense, giving up 130 yards on the ground per game.
NEW ENGLAND AT BALTIMORE (NE +2.5): The Pats come into Sunday night’s game as 3.5-point road favorites — their smallest spread of the year. Tom Brady & Co. have traveled well going 3-1 ATS on the road with the only ATS loss coming against the Bills. The Ravens have held opponents to just 18.7 points a game over their last three and won’t run up the score against the league’s top DVOA defense.
DALLAS at N.Y. GIANTS (DAL -1): Dallas is coming off its bye, helping the receiving corp heal up as they face a New York Giants team giving up over 30 points a game in its last three outings. The Cowboys have won the last five meetings by an average margin of 12.4 points. The Giants have to find a way to stop Dak Prescott, who is averaging 287 yards passing with seven rushing touchdowns in his last 16 games.
SELLING THE SACK STREAK
We are 3-0 in the month of October with our Over sack props and looking to push that streak to four in a game we are expecting to see quarterbacks face down.
The Carolina Panthers have gotten to opposing QBs at a league-best rate of 4.3 sacks per game while also struggling to keep Kyle Allen horizontal, surrendering seven sacks last week and eight in the previous three games.
Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill won’t fare any better come Sunday as the veteran has been sacked nine times in 10 quarters since taking over the starting job.
This total will most likely be set at 6.5 as opposed to the usual 5.5 but is still a recommended play for any bettor looking to change things up. Hit the Over.
SWIMMING WITH DOLPHINS
The New York Jets are bad. That’s not surprising. But opening as 1-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins is a big slap to the face for Adam Gase’s squad, which has since been bet up to -3.
The New York offense has looked putrid since the Cowboys game, putting up just 15 points and 367 yards in their last two games. Over that same stretch, QB Sam Darnold’s unit has converted 4 of 20 third downs leading to a time of possession of only 24 minutes, which would rank as the worst mark in the league.
As bad as the offense is, the defense might be in worse shape heading into the Dolphins’ game. Middle Linebacker C.J. Mosley is out and defensive captain Jamal Adams seems to have lost his motivation, taking issue with being shopped at the trade deadline and had some choice words for the Jets’ GM
The spread scares us a bit considering the Dolphins’ second-half woes, but this Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense has a great chance to top its team total of 18.5 points after getting the taste of competitive football over the last two week. Take the Dolphins team total Over 18.5.
THE HYPE IS LOUD
One would think that the loss of Davante Adams would affect Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers’ offense. However, the Packers are a perfect 4-0 without the star receiver and averaging 32.5 points. That mark would put them tops in the league and nearly 10 points higher than their PPG with Adams on the Field.
Rodgers has also seen his passer rating jump 18 points up to 118.7 as he will look to take Matt LaFleur’s rolling offense to L.A. to face the Chargers. The Bolts have seen the weakest stretch of opposing QBs over the last five weeks: M.Trubisky, R.Tannehill, D.Hodges, J.Flacco, and J.Rosen. The Bolts went 2-3 SU (2-3 ATS) over those five games and allowed an average of 18.4 completions, 211 yards passing with one touchdown and one interception.
All the Rodgers hype has led to some bloated prop lines especially on his completions which sit at 25.5 — a number he has eclipsed just twice this year and no QB has topped versus LAC. The Chargers are also giving up 140 rushing yards at home which has us leaning on a heavier Green Bay rushing attack. We are hitting the Under on Rodgers’ completions of 25.5.
AS FIT AS A KITTLE
If you are a fan of betting on offensive/defensive matchups, then you have probably already circled tonight’s San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals game on your calendar. The Cards have the worst pass defense to opposing tight ends, allowing 90 yards on 8.3 passes per game to the big receivers. Tonight, the Cards will face one of the best in the business in George Kittle.
The 49ers are dinged up in the running-back department as Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert are questionable. This leaves the door open for Kittle to have a big game against the Cardinals linebacker Jordan Hicks who is allowing a 93 percent catch rate to TEs. Look for Kittle to pass his reception total of 5.5 — a number he has passed in four of his last five games.
THE BOYS ARE BACK IN TOWN
With the news that New York Giants receiver Sterling Shepard has shed his non-contact jersey after missing time with a concussion, it would mean that the Giants may finally get their full offensive unit for their Monday night game versus Dallas. It will be the first game that Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram Golden Tate and Shepard will share the field.
The Giants may not be winning of late but the offense has been competent as Daniel Jones is coming off a career-high in passing yards with 322 versus the Detroit Lions. The Giants showed that they can play catch up and put points on the board after trailing by double digits three separate times last week and losing by just five.
With the Cowboys defense being anything but consistent (19th DVOA defense), we are leaning on the Over of the Giants’ team total of 19.5.
JAX THE RIPPER
The Jacksonville Jaguars will head to their second home this Sunday as the Garner Minshew-led Jags will take on the Houston Texans in jolly old London. Receiver D.J. Chark may lead the team in receiving yards, but Minshew has a new side piece that has been getting a lot of attention of late.
Chris Conley leads the Jags in receiving yards over the last two weeks hauling in seven passes for 186 yards and a score with catches of 70 and 47 yards. The 4.3 speedster has the ability to turn short catches into long gains and can get behind the defense as his 20.4 yards per reception indicates.
Also in Conley’s favor is that Houston is allowing over 300 yards passing on the road this year and fellow Jag receiver Dede Westbrook is questionable after being removed from last Sunday’s game.
Take the Over on Conley’s receiving yards on any total below 60 yards.
GONE IN 30 MINUTES
The Buffalo Bills bandwagon blew a tire last week with their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles and now have the Redskins on tap for Week 9. Many are starting to worry about the capabilities of their offense as Josh Allen has put up just 558 yards and been out produced by opposing offenses in back-to-back weeks — that includes the Dolphins.
Where the team is struggling the most is putting up points early; specifically in the first half where they sit 26th in first-half points with 8.7. Luckily for them, Washington is even worse in the first 30 minutes, scoring just 6.6 points in the first half and even less (4.3) over their last three games.
With the lowest total of the week at 36.5, take the 1H Under 19.5 points as it could be a cold and windy day in Buffalo.
Best spot bets for the NFL Week 9 odds: Raiders are ready to return home
Jason Logan
Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball, ranked fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaging almost 26 points per game over its last four outings.
Situational handicapping – more popularly known as spot betting – is a great way to find hidden value on or against a certain team. From letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots, these blips on the calendar are just one of the weapons NFL bettors can use in their fight against the bookmakers.
Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan combs through the Week 9 schedule and gives his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact the outcomes.
LETDOWN SPOT: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT L.A. CHARGERS (+3.5, 47)
The Chargers finally snapped their three-game losing skid thanks to some classic kicking from the Chicago Bears last Sunday. Chicago kicker Eddy Pineiro botched a game-winning field goal, allowing the Bolts to escape the Windy City with a much-needed 17-16 victory.
Los Angeles has been in some tight contests this season, with all but one of its first eight games decided by a touchdown or less. The Week 8 win allows the franchise to exhale but only after pinning offense coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as the sacrificial lamb, firing him on Monday after the team slogged through offensive issues in the first half of the schedule.
The Chargers return “home” to Dignity Health Sports Park, which will undoubtedly be overtaken by resident and vacationing Cheeseheads this Sunday. With some of the urgency erased following that win, and the offense play calling in flux, this could be a bad spot for the Bolts in Week 9.
LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6, 51.5)
The Buccaneers have been a sharp play in Week 9, drawing some action from the wiseguys for their trip to Seattle on Sunday. Tampa Bay has slimmed from +6.5 to +6, playing in what will be the team’s fifth straight road game, thanks to a chunk of scheduling that took the Bucs away from Raymond James Stadium (including across the pond to London, England and a Week 7 bye) for 49 days.
While the Seahawks are a formidable opponent and most teams wouldn’t look past that challenge, the homesick Buccos could be running on empty after crossing the country and dreaming of a full week in their own beds, heading into a Week 11 home stand with Arizona.
Tampa Bay has managed to cover the spread only once on this grueling four-game road stretch and is 6-8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2017.
SCHEDULE SPOT: DETROIT LIONS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2, 50.5)
We mentioned the Buccaneers’ long road home just within reach, but the Oakland Raiders are coming out the other end of a similar stretch of schedule that last saw them inside RingCentral Coliseum on September 15.
Oakland is playing its first home game since Week 2 and brings with it some momentum on the offensive side of the ball. After a 2018 in which the Silver and Black ranked among the basement in most scoring stats, this year’s Raiders are currently fourth in yards per play (6.2) and averaged almost 26 points per game over their last four outings – all away from home.
Detroit makes the cross-country trek to the Bay Area with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and has injury concerns around standouts Snacks Harrison and Darius Slay. Action seems to be siding with Oakland in his homecoming, moving the spread from -1.5 to -2.
Total Talk - Week 9
Joe Williams
It's Week 9 of the National Football League regular season, as we'll be past the halfway points after this weekend and heading for the home stretch. We have a return of several divisional matchups, an intriguing battle over in London for the final game of the season from England, as well as a potentially thrilling battle on Sunday Night Football betwee the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in Charm City.
2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 8 6-9 8-7 6-9
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 55-65-1 56-64-1 54-63-4
The betting public struck back in Week 8 with some small gains after getting dusted by the books in the previous three weekends. Last week we saw nine under results and six over results, which is generally a win for the books.
Heading into Sunday's London game between the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium, you might want to think 'over' in the UK matchups. The high side has gone 2-1 in the three games from England this season and that includes a 2-0 mark at the two battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, while the under hit in last week's Wembley game. We note that because that's the same venue as this weekend's battle.
Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 9 were not rewarded as the 'under' produced a 9-6 mark in the final 30 minutes. Through 121 games this season, the 'under' sits at 65-55-1 on the season and the low side also holds slight edges in both wagers for the first-half (64-56-1) and second-half (63-54-4).
Division Bell
We had no division battles in Week 8, so we take a look back at the previous week. There were a total of five divisional battles in Week 7, and the winning team in each game had more than 30 points in each outing. However, the losing team averaging just 12 points per game in those contests, with only Miami and Houston scoring more than 11 points. The under is now 23-12 (65.7%) in divisional games this season.
Divisional Game Results Week 7
Kansas City at Denver Under (49.5) Kansas City 30, Denver 6
Houston at Indianapolis Over (46.5) Indianapolis 30, Houston 23
Miami at Buffalo Over (42) Buffalo 31, Miami 21
Philadelphia at Dallas Under (50) Dallas 37, Philadelphia 10
New England at N.Y. Jets Under (43) New England 33, N.Y. Jets 0
London Totals
We have had three total games in London to date, with the first two games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium cashing over tickets, while last week's battle between the Rams and Bengals hit the under. The Rams didn't exactly light the world afire offensively, and the Bengals were...well...the Bengals. They're winless for a reason. This week's game features a potent offense from the Texans, and a subpar defense. For the Jaguars, they have also moved the ball quite well while checking in with a middling defense.
The Texans will be playing in their first game in England, although they have been involved in an International Series game, falling 27-20 to the Oakland Raiders at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Nov. 21, 2016, a game which hit the 'over'.
For the Jaguars, London has been a home away from home. This will be their seventh appearance in England, hitting the 'over' in five of the six battles. Last season's Week 7 battle against the Eagles was their first 'under' overseas, and that cashed just barely. In their only AFC South Division battle in London, they topped the Colts 30-27 on Oct. 2, 2016 for an 'over' result.
London Results - Past Nine Games
Week 8 - 2019 - Cincinnati vs. L.A. Rams Under (48) L.A. Rams 24, Cincinnati 10
Week 6 - 2019 - Carolina vs. Tampa Bay Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Week 5 - 2019 - Chicago vs. Oakland Over (40) Oakland 24, Chicago 21
Week 7 - 2018 - Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville Under (44.5) Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18
Week 6 - 2018 - Tennessee vs. L.A. Chargers Under (46) L.A. Chargers 20, Tennessee 19
Week 5 - 2018 - Seattle vs. Oakland Under (48) Seattle 27, Oakland 3
Week 8 - 2017 - Minnesota vs. Cleveland Over (38.5) Minnesota 33, Cleveland 16
Week 7 - 2017 - Arizona vs. L.A. Rams Under (45.5) L.A. Rams 33, Arizona 0
Week 4 - 2017 - New Orleans vs. Miami Under (51.5) New Orleans 20, Miami 0
Week 3 - 2017 - Baltimore vs. Jacksonville Over (38.5) Jacksonville 44, Baltimore 7
Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 8 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Cleveland at Denver: 43 to 39
Chicago at Philadelphia: 45 to 41 ½
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: 43 ½ to 40 ½
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: 46 to 48 ½
New England at Baltimore (SNF): 46 ½ to 44 ½
Tennessee at Carolina: 40 to 42
Minnesota at Kansas City: 46 to 48
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 8 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: Over 96%
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Under 91%
Tennessee at Carolina: Over 87%
Houston at Jacksonville (London): Over 83%
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (MNF): Over 79%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (72 percent) in the N.Y. Jets-Miami matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in New England-Baltimore (67 percent) battle on Sunday Night Football.
Handicapping Week 9
Week 8 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 0-0 13-22
NFC vs. NFC 2-3 14-14
AFC vs. AFC 1-4 11-10-1
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 18-18
Other Week 9 Action
Houston at Jacksonville (9:30 a.m. ET - London): The Texans will play in their first game in England, and just their second international game to date. The 'over' hit in their only previous non-United States battle. For the Texans, they have scored 23 or more points in each of their past four games, and they just missed the under by a half-point or point at most shops last week against the Raiders. Since tuning up Atlanta on Oct. 6 the Texans are averaging a robust 33.3 points per game across the past four, while allowing 24 or more points (32, 24, 30, 24) during the span. While that's all well and good, remember these players to a 13-12 battle in Houston back in Week 2, with the Texans coming out on top.
Tennessee at Carolina: The Titans hit the 'under' in five of their first six games, including a shutout loss Oct. 13 in Denver. They elected to make a change from QB Marcus Mariota to QB Ryan Tannehill, and so far the move is paying off over the former Dolphins' past two outings. After averaging just 11.0 PPG in five outings from Week 2 through Week 6, the Titans have posted 23 and 27 in a pair of wins and 'over' results. The Panthers hit the over in last week's game in San Francisco, but it was mostly the doing of the 49ers. They were dumped 51-13 in a crazy loss for the defense, which has allowed 27, 26 and 51 across the past three contests. As expected, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 in those outings. That's probably part of the reason this total has been on a move, up two points from an open of 40.
Chicago at Philadelphia: The Bears have dropped three in a row entering play in this one, now they get to face old buddy RB Jordan Howard and the equally hungry Eagles. The Bears have scored 16 or more points in six straight, and they're averaging 19 PPG across the past three. The 'over' is 2-1 in the past three games because the defense has gone south lately, mainly because the offense cannot stay on the field and the defense is likely getting worn down. Chicago's vaunted defense allowed 11.3 PPG over the first four outings, but they have yielded 25.7 PPG across the past three. Philly will be returning home after three straight road games which saw the 'over' hit in two battles, including last week's 31-13 win at Buffalo. Philly has hit for 20 or more points in seven of the first eight games, and they rank 21st in the NFL, allowing 24.9 PPG.
Minnesota at Kansas City: The Vikings offense sputtered last Thursday night in a 19-9 win over the Redskins, a big departure from their previous three games of production. In their past three Sunday battles the Vikings were averaging 36.0 PPG while allowing 20.0 PPG. Against the Chiefs, they'll need to be on point. Even with backup QB Matt Moore in for the injured QB Patrick Mahomes (kneecap) last week, the Chiefs posted 24 points in the first 'over' of the season on Sunday Night Football. The 'over' is 3-1 for Kansas City at home, and 2-0 against the NFC North Division so far this season.
N.Y. Jets at Miami: The one-win Jets and winless Dolphins lock horns at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday with draft position on the line. The Dolphins have resembled an NFL caliber offense over the past three games since a bye, averaging 17.0 PPG, which isn't much, but is much greater than the 6.5 PPG they averaged in the first four games Still, the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three home games for the Dolphins. The Jets have averaged just 7.5 PPG over the past two games, and the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 in three games against AFC East Division foes this season, posting 16, 14 and 0 in those three contests.
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Colts offense stumbled against the Broncos sturdy defense last week, but they still won. However, they'll need more than 15 points if they want to top the Steelers on the road. Indianapolis has hit the 'under' in their past three road outings, and they're averaging just 20.7 PPG in three games away from home, including 19 and 19 in the past two regulation games, both 'under' results. The Steelers defense has been better over the past four games, although they hae played a pair of winless teams and a toothless Chargers offense during the span. Still, the 'under is 4-1 over their past five outings. The offense has scored 20 or more points in six straight despite some injury woes.
Detroit at Oakland: The Lions rank fifth in the NFL in passing yards per game, posting 282.7 yards, and they're 31st in total yards allowed (420.4) and 32nd in the NFL against the pass (289.7). Detroit has allowed 23 or more points in five straight games, and six of the seven overall, hitting the 'over' in four of the past five, and five of seven. Defense also isn't a strong suit for the Raiders, as they're 31st against the pass (288.0). Look for QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr to hook up in a shootout, and subsequently plenty of points.
Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Buccaneers roll in on a 5-0 'over' run, posting 31, 55, 24, 26 and 23 across their past five games on offense, while allowing 32, 40, 31, 37 and 27 on defense during the same span. Tampa Bay's games have looked like college scores, and the Seahawks have to be licking their chops. The Seahawks have hit the 'over' in each of their past three home games, averaging 24.3 PPG on offense while yielding 27.3 PPG during the three-game span.
Cleveland at Denver: The Browns were expected to be a juggernaut on offense, but they have struggled with consistency, turnovers and discipline through the first seven outings. They hit the 'under' last week in New England, and the under is 3-1 in four games away from the shores of Lake Erie this season. They're averaging 19.0 PPG in four road games, and those numbers are skewed a bit due to a 40-point outburst in Baltimore on Sept. 29. In their three 'under' results the Browns are posting just 13.0 PPG. The Broncos make a change to QB Brandon Allen for the injured QB Joe Flacco (neck). The Broncos have struggled mightily on offense, averaging just 11.7 PPG over the past three, and 15.0 PPG in four outings at home, hitting the 'under' in three games at Mile High.
Green Bay at L.A. Chargers: The Packers offense has been on fire, posting 23 or more points in six straight outings, cashing the 'over' in five of those outings. That including a 3-0 record against three previous AFC West clubs. They're averaging 33.4 PPG in three meetings against AFC West teams this season while allowing 21.4 PPG in this battles. The Chargers have been the complete opposite, hitting the 'under' in six of the past seven, including 2-0 vs. NFC North teams. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three at home.
Heavy Expectations
There are just one game listed with a spread of double-digit points for Week 9, with the home team listed as favorites. The total is 36.5 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.
Washington at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Redskins play their fifth game this season as a double-digit underdog. They have scored a total of 16 points (5.3 PPG) across their past three as a double-digit 'dog, and they have hit the under in five in a row overall. Washington will be using rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in his first NFL start, and he can't be any worse after the offense totaled nine points in the past two games. The Bills hit the 'over' in their only previous game this season as a double-digit favorite in Week 7, and the 'over' is 2-0 in their past two games at home.
Under the Lights
New England at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football battle will be much anticipated, and the SNF game saw the 'over' hit last week after an 8-0 'under' run to start. This game might be a return to the under. New England's defense has been sick, allowing just 234.0 total yards per game and 7.6 PPG to rank No. 1 in each category, while allowing 85.2 rushing yards per outing. That will be put to the test with the dynamic QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens are averaging 204.1 rushing yards per game to lead the NFL, with Jackson good for a team-high 576 yards on the ground. They're averaging 30.6 PPG to rank No. 2 in points scored, too, so they'll be the biggest challenge for New England's defense to date.
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Cowboys and Giants square off Monday night in New Jersey. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven divisional games for the Cowboys, while going 12-3-1 in their past 16 games following a bye week. It's the complete opposite, with the under hitting in four in a row for the Giants, and 4-1 in their past five appearances on MNF. However, the over is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in New Jersey. Remember, RB Saquon Barkley is back from injury to help spur the offense along.
Sunday Blitz - Week 9
Kevin Rogers
GAMES TO WATCH
Titans at Panthers (-3 ½, 42) – 1:00 PM EST
Tennessee (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) is right back in the AFC South race after picking up consecutive home wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. Ryan Tannehill has given the offense a spark at quarterback the last two weeks as the Titans scored 23 and 27 points following a two-week stretch of seven combined points. Granted, both games came down to the end but Tennessee is coming off consecutive wins for the first time this season, while the Titans already own road underdog victories at Cleveland and Atlanta.
The Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) limp home after getting blasted by the undefeated 49ers last Sunday, 51-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Carolina fell into a 27-3 halftime hole as the Panthers saw their four-game winning streak snapped, while quarterback Kyle Allen was intercepted three times. The Panthers had scored 34 points or more in three of their previous four wins, as Carolina returns to Bank of America Stadium for its second home game in the last seven weeks.
Carolina has won six consecutive home games against AFC foes since 2016, while Tennessee is riding a three-game winning streak against NFC squads on the road since last season. The Panthers routed the Titans in Nashville in their previous matchup in 2015 as 3 ½-point favorites, 27-10, as the starting quarterbacks in that game were Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.
Best Bet: Titans 27, Panthers 24
Vikings (-4, 47) at Chiefs – 1:00 PM EST
The race atop the NFC North continues to be a good one between Green Bay and Minnesota, who are separated by one game heading into Week 9. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off their fourth straight victory after holding off the feisty Redskins, 19-9 in a Week 8 Thursday night battle as Minnesota failed to cover as 16 ½-point home favorites. Kirk Cousins continues to play well by throwing 10 touchdowns passes in the last four contests, while completing 23-of-26 passes against his former team for 285 yards last week.
The Chiefs (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) will likely be without last season’s MVP Patrick Mahomes for a second straight game after missing last Sunday night’s 31-24 loss to the Packers recovering from a dislocated kneecap. Kansas City has dropped three consecutive home games and last lost three games in a season at Arrowhead Stadium back in 2013. Matt Moore will start at quarterback once again, but the running game has been non-existent by being held to 88 yards or fewer in the last four contests (1-3).
The Vikings lost their first two road games of the season at Green Bay and Chicago, while scoring a total of 22 points in those defeats. Minnesota has rebounded in the past two away victories against the Giants and Lions (granted lesser competition), but the Vikings posted 70 points in those wins. Kansas City’s offense obviously takes a hit without Mahomes, but the Chiefs scored 20 points without the former Texas Tech star in the final three quarters at Denver before putting up 24 against Green Bay.
Best Bet: Vikings 24, Chiefs 20
Buccaneers at Seahawks (-4 ½, 53) – 4:05 PM EST
Tampa Bay (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) shocked many people in its Week 4 blowout of the NFC Champion Rams, 55-40 as nine-point road underdogs to improve to 2-2. The Buccaneers haven’t won since by dropping three consecutive games, while allowing 31, 37, and 27 points in this stretch. The most recent defeat came at Tennessee last Sunday as two-point underdogs in a 27-23 setback to drop to 2-2 on the highway. Jameis Winston has been intercepted seven times in the last two games, as the Buccaneers are riding a five-game streak to the OVER.
The Seahawks (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) built a 24-0 halftime lead at Atlanta last Sunday before holding off the Falcons, 27-20. Due to the questionable status of Falcons’ quarterback Matt Ryan all week, there wasn’t a line on the game until Ryan was ruled out and Seattle closed as a 7 ½-point favorite. Following that non-cover, the Seahawks fell to 1-5 ATS this season when laying points, which includes an 0-4 ATS mark at CenturyLink Field. Seattle will look to sure up its defense at home as the Seahawks have yielded 33, 29, and 30 points in their last three contests in the Pacific Northwest.
The Bucs have not covered in a loss this season (0-5 ATS), but Tampa Bay owns a 5-1 ATS mark since last season as a road underdog of four points or more. This total is the highest that Seattle has seen this season, as the Seahawks cashed the OVER in all three opportunities on totals of 50 and higher in 2018. Tampa Bay defeated Seattle in the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2016 as five-point underdogs, 14-5.
Best Bet: Seahawks 30, Buccaneers 20
BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 51 – Lions at Raiders
Oakland is playing at the Coliseum for the first time since Week 2 as the Raiders spent the last five games on the road. In the middle of this stretch, the Silver and Black traveled to London to face the Bears as Oakland finished UNDER the total in its two true home games to start the season. Although that was a long time ago, the Raiders have hit the OVER in four of the last five contests, but are 2-0 to the UNDER in totals of 50 or higher. The Lions’ offense has been hit or miss at time this season, but Detroit scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. In their highest road total at Green Bay, the Lions finished UNDER the total of 47.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Bears head to Philadelphia in a playoff rematch with the Eagles as Chicago tries to end a two-game skid. Teams that lose consecutive home games and hit the road are worth a strong look since bettors are normally down of them, as that is the case for Chicago. The Eagles blew out the Bills last Sunday, but Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS this season at Lincoln Financial Field, while failing to cash in seven of their past 10 home contests.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Westgate Superbook released the Broncos as a one-point home favorite against the Browns on October 22, five days before the Week 8 card took place. After the news came down that Broncos’ quarterback Joe Flacco will be sidelined and former Arkansas standout Brandon Allen will make his first NFL start, this line flipped significantly. Cleveland is listed as a 4 ½-point favorite even though the Browns own a 2-5 record and have dropped three consecutive games. Denver has lost three games this season by two points each, all on field goals in the final minute.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
The Dolphins are seeking their first win of the season. You probably knew that, but Miami has covered in three consecutive games, as the ‘Fins are an underdog once again when the rival Jets invade Hard Rock Stadium. In last season’s two matchups with the Dolphins, Jets’ quarterback Sam Darnold was intercepted six times as New York scored 18 points and was swept by Miami. Of course the Dolphins aren’t the same team as last season, but the Jets enter Sunday’s action with a 1-9 record in their past 10 road contests.
SNF - Patriots at Ravens
Matt Blunt
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The lock on 'overs' in SNF games this year was finally cracked open last week, as the Packers and Chiefs brought the back-and-forth shootout that everyone would have expected from them at the beginning of the year, even if the home side had an understudy taking the place of their star. It was nice to see two NFL teams make the most of their scoring opportunities and cash in with TD's and not FG tries, as there have been too many teams throughout the league that have played too conservative in that spot and/or have kicking issues to boot.
That makes it two straight weeks with relatively easy winners on SNF for this piece, and as we've arrived at November this week I'm looking to make it three in a row.
This week we've got another great game for the SNF crew, as New England visits a Baltimore Ravens team that's always given them fits for the better part of a decade now. Obviously, Belichick and Brady are still there in New England, but Baltimore's going to look much different this time around for New England as QB Lamar Jackson is about as opposite as it gets in terms of their former QB Joe Flacco.
This should be a great test for a Patriots defense that's gotten heaps of praise in recent weeks for all that they've done this year – I think I heard that New England would still be something like 6-2 SU if the offense hadn't scored a single point all year – but context always matters, and is generally forgotten a lot in this industry, and there isn't an offense New England has faced that brings the challenge that Baltimore will bring here. Remember the Ravens have also had two weeks to prepare for this game as well.
With a point spread that will undoubtedly have recreational/public bettors siding with the Patriots and the Ravens being a popular play from the 'sharps', let's get into where your money should be going on Sunday night.
Total Talk
This total opened up at 46 and thanks to about 65% support for the low side, the number has dropped a half-point to stay relatively steady at 45.5 the rest of the way. Given how historically good the Patriots defense has looked in basically every game, you can understand why the 'under' was the first look for the majority, and with Belichick's history of containing and shutting down young QB's by throwing very different looks at them, the 'under' is a reasonable look for sure.
However, I'm not sure many of those young QB's that Patriots teams have owned in the Belichick era have had the dynamic skill set that Lamar Jackson has. His speed can break pretty much any contain their is, and his throwing accuracy (and reads) are getting better and better each week as he's asked to do more in that area. New England will throw some exotic looks at him for sure, and some will likely have some success, but it's not like Baltimore can't adjust to that themselves, and when you've got the best athlete on the field by a wide margin, adjustments just come easier.
At the same time, New England's defense – while worthy of the praise they've gotten from a statistical standpoint – the context in who they've played definitely matters. Yes, I know you can only play who's on the schedule in front of you, but in terms of yards gained per game by the offense, New England's faced the 32nd ranked offense (NYJ) twice, the 31st ranked offense (Miami), the 30th ranked offense (Washington), the 28th ranked offense (Pittsburgh), the 24th ranked offense (NYG), the 20th ranked offense (Cleveland) in a weather-affected game, and the 19th ranked offense (Buffalo). There are only 32 teams in the league so that's about as soft as it gets.
Furthermore, only one of those Patriots opponents comes into Week 9 this week averaging more than 20 points per game, and that's Pittsburgh at 21.4 points per contest. The Jets, Dolphins, and Redskins top out at 12.4 points per game (Washington), while the other three teams – Cleveland, NYG, and Buffalo are all between 19 and 19.8 points per game.
Sure, you could argue that facing New England's defense for at least one of their games contributes to those low numbers, but logic and basic reasoning would tell you that none of those teams are really any good this year (sorry Buffalo fans) at least from an offensive standpoint. That's not the case with Baltimore as they are the only other team – besides the Patriots – that averages over 30 points per game this season (30.6) and that number isn't aided by the plethora of defensive/special teams scores (5) New England has put up this year.
And even if you wanted to look at the other side of things and say, “well Baltimore's numbers are skewed because of the 59 points they put up on Miami” well, they are slightly for sure. But the Ravens have also scored at least 23 points in every game this year, and it's not like New England didn't put up 43 points on Miami themselves.
All that being said, New England has put up 27 or more in all but one of their games – as they should vs the level of opponent they've faced – and I do think they approach that number against Baltimore this week. Tom Brady and company can't be thrilled about all this chatter that the defense has carried the Pats to this 8-0 SU record pretty much by their lonesome, and it's not like you can't put up points on this Ravens defense who have already had games where they've allowed 33 and 40 points too.
At home, Baltimore will get theirs too, as this game could end up looking a lot like last week's SNF game where we get two winning teams trading scores and going blow for blow against one another. After all, maybe last week's 'over' result broke the dam on 'overs' happening in these prime time games and that's really the only way I can look here.
Side Spiel
Reading all of that talk about the total would suggest that I believe taking the points with Baltimore would be the side to look at, and in theory that's probably the case. New England is going to be the 'public' side here, and oddsmakers are probably going to need the Ravens ATS and/or SU to snap a lot of parlays and teaser cards from earlier in the day. But the Patriots make a habit of outperforming their numbers and I'm not willing to step in front of that with a number that's hovering around -3.
Now some will tell you that the 'look ahead line' on this game was New England -6.5 and given that New England covered in those nasty conditions last week and Baltimore didn't play, a 'move' like that is something to weigh heavily. But comparing look ahead lines to what's actually posted during the week, and what ends up being the closing number is one of the biggest shams going.
I say that because that line of thought operates under the assumption that look ahead lines are the “true” or “correct” line on a game, and movements come based on what happens in games the week prior. That's not true at all, and it's why you see so many big moves relative to those early look ahead lines. Plenty of bettors understand how egregious those look ahead lines can be – it's why oddsmakers also take smaller limits on them – and they bet them accordingly. I mean who wouldn't love taking the Ravens at +6.5 right?
That was a bad number and the betting action tells you that. Bettors willing to get out well ahead of the market take advantage of these off-market numbers and then adjust their position accordingly throughout the week when lines settle into place. That doesn't mean that Baltimore is the play now, it means at +6.5 they were well liked by bettors. Nothing more and nothing less. Breaking this game down at the current line of New England -3.5 is a totally different scenario to address outside of what happened in the early markets and it's that concept that ends up getting lost when bettors are discussing what look ahead lines were relative to where they end up going.
And this line of New England -3.5 is arguably right where this line should be in my view, and outside of moving the price tag on the juice for it, chances are it hovers in this range until game time, depending on how much Patriots love comes in from the masses. It's not a play I'd want to touch with either side, but if you are interested in doing something with the side, teasing up the Baltimore Ravens through the key numbers of 7 and even 10 (on a 7-pt teaser) is how I'd look to play it.
Final Thoughts
The side at the current number is not something I'm interested in at all outside of teaser options, but it is the total that does appear to be the better bet. This game has the stench of something like 27-24 written all over it for one of these two teams, although the winner probably needs to hit their average of 30+ points to assure themselves of a victory.
I do expect New England's defense to get “exposed” a bit in the sense that they've put up all these fantastic defensive numbers against the doldrums of the league offensively – Baltimore ranks 2nd in yards gained per game with 434.9.
At the same time, Brady and company on that side of the ball for New England make sure to quiet the noise about their unit being well behind their defense. Baltimore's defense can be had through the air – ranks 26th in passing yards allowed – and it will be that aerial attack that gives New England a chance.
Hopefully those floodgates on 'overs' cashing a few more times in SNF games the rest of the year did open up after last week's result, as we should get two straight SNF 'overs' cashing when all is said and done this week.
Best Bet: Over 45.5 points