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NFL Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Sunday 10/8/23

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(@shazman)
Posts: 58019
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : October 7, 2023 9:57 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 58019
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Bills (3-1) vs Jaguars (2-2)  (@ London)
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 103-16.
— Bills have converted 26-52 third down plays this year. 
— Bills are 26-18-1 ATS in last 45 games as a favorite.
— Buffalo has outscored opponents 81-27 in first half.
— Bills outscored last three foes 55-9 in second half.
— Bills have 8 takeaways in last three games (+4)
— Last three games, opponents are 7-26 on third den.
— Josh Allen is 50-29 as an NFL starter.
— Bills are 21-13-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a win.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-0-1

— Jaguars are playing in England for second week in a row.
— Jaguars scored 21-23 points in wins, 9-17 in losses.
— Under Pederson, Jags are 7-6 ATS as an underdog (0-1 TY)
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down this season.
— Jaguars are 9-13 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Last three games, Jacksonville has only 3 offensive TD’s on 28 drives.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +10 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Pederson is 58-50-1 as a head coach (5-3 in playoff games).
— Lawrence is 14-24 as an NFL starter- he won a national title in college.
— Team total: under 2-1-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Teams split their last ten meetings.
— Underdogs covered last five series games.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.

Texans (2-2) @ Falcons (2-2)
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt their last two games.
— Houston scored 37-30 points last two games (9-20 first two games)
— Texans are 9-11-1 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Houston has converted 31-64 third down plays.
— Opponents have converted 27-57 third down plays.
— Houston is 6-4-1 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Stroud is 2-2 as an NFL starter.
— Texans are 3-9-2 ATS last 14 games against NFC opponents.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 19 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Texans have their fourth head coach the last four years.
— This is Houston’s first game this year on artificial turf.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Falcons scored 24-25 points in their wins, 6-7 in their losses.
— Atlanta didn’t take bye week after their game in England LW.
— Falcons won both their home games, 24-10/25-24.
— Under Smith, Falcons are 9-10-1 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Ridder is 4-4 as an NFL starting QB.
— Atlanta is 8-6-1 ATS in its last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Falcons are 7-6-3 ATS in last 16 games with a spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-1

— Home team won all five series games.
— Texans lost 48-21/26-16 in their two visits to Atlanta.
— Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Panthers (0-4) @ Lions (3-1)
— Carolina lost first four games (0-3-1 ATS), scoring 10-17-27-13 points.
— Panthers scored 27 points in game veteran QB Dalton started.
— In Young’s three starts. Carolina averaged 3.2/3.8/4.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Panthers are 14-42 on 3rd down in Young’s start, 10-19 in Dalton’s start
— Opponents are only 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina is 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— You’re reading armadillosports com
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Carolina is 17-25-2 ATS in last 44 games coming off a loss. 
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Detroit allowed 20-6-20 points in wins, 37 in their loss. 
— Lions played on Thursday LW, had couple days longer to prepare.
— Lions outscored last three opponents 54-13 in first half.
— Under Campbell, Detroit is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 26-11-1 ATS overall.
— Detroit scored 10 TD’s on its last 33 drives.
— Goff is 59-49-1 as an NFL starter, 15-19-1 with the Lions.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 9-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Carolina won eight of last ten series games.
— Panthers are 1-2-1 ATS in last four visits to Detroit.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Titans (2-2) @ Colts (2-2)
— Titans scored 27-27 points in their wins; they didn’t score TD in either loss. 
— Tennessee lost nine of its last 11 games SU.
— Titans lost their two road games, 16-15/27-3.
— Titans are minus-2 in turnovers (2-4) so far this season.
— First drive of their games, Titans ran 31 plays for only 62 yards.
— Titans are 12-6 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— Tannehill is 82-70 as an NFL starter (2-3 in playoffs)
— Titans are 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Tennessee is 9-3 ATS in last 12 AFC South road games.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-1

— Colts lost both home games, won both road games. 
— Three of four Colt games this season went over the total. 
— Indy has scored 21+ points in all four games.
— Last two weeks, Colts gave up 186-164 rushing yards.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games.
— Indy is 16-14-2 ATS in last 32 games coming off a loss.
— Colts are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or less. 
— Richardson is 1-2 as an NFL starter.
— This is 7th year in row Colts have a different #1 QB
— Team total: over 3-0-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Titans won/covered last four series games.
— Tennessee covered five of last six visits to Indianapolis.
— Last three series games stayed under the total.

Giants (1-3) @ Dolphins (3-1)
— Short week for Giants after Monday’s 24-3 loss to Seattle
— Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games. 
— Giants are averaging only 252 yards/game this season.  
— Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
— Under Daboll, Giants are 6-2 ATS as a road underdog (0-1 TY).
— Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
— Last two games, Giants have one TD, eight 3/outs on 21 drives.
— Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
— NFC East teams are 5-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Miami won/covered three of first four games, scoring 37.5 ppg.
— Miami is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Dolphins have scored 20 TD’s on 44 drives.
— Under McDaniel, Miami is 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— In four games, opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Dolphins are 11-15 ATS in last 26 games vs NFC opponents.
— Three of their four games went over the total.
— Tagovailoa is 24-14 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Giants won four of last five meetings.
— Big Blue is 1-1 ATS in last two visits to Miami.
— Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Saints (2-2) @ Patriots (1-3)
— Saints split first four games, scoring only 15.5 ppg.
— Saints have only 4 offensive TD’s on 41 drives.
— Last two games, Saints were outscored 30-6 in second half.
— Last two games, opponents converted 16-33 on third down.
— Saints have been outscored 13-3 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Saints are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games with spread of 3 or less.
— NO is 6-8-1 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 4-0 in Saints’ games this season.
— Saints were under 80 rushing yards in three of their four games.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— New England lost both home games, 25-20/24-17.
— Last two games, Patriots have one offensive TD on 23 drives. 
— Since Brady left, NE is 26-28 SU in regular season, 0-1 in playoffs.
— Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games.
— Mac Jones is 17-19 as an NFL starting QB.
— Patriots are 7-6-3 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC opponents.
— Patriots are 17-17-1 ATS in last 35 games coming off a loss.
— AFC East teams are 5-5 ATS outside the division.
— Under is 3-0-1 in New England games this season.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: 2-2

— Patriots won four of last six series games.
— Saints are 2-2 ATS in last four visits to Foxboro.
— Over is 3-3 in last six series games.

Ravens (3-1) @ Steelers (2-2)
— Ravens won/covered three of four games; they lost in OT to Colts.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Ravens are 8-12 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore converted 27 of their first 57 3rd down plays.
— Ravens are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— Under is 15-10 in their last 25 road games.
— Under is 3-1 in Baltimore games this season.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— QB Pickett was banged up last week (check status)
— Steelers scored 26-23 points in wins, 7-6 in losses.
— Steelers have been outgained by 115 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in last seven games decided by 8 or less points.
— Three of four Steeler games stayed under the total.
— Steelers have seven takeaways in last three games (+3)
— Pitt is 27-15-1 ATS in last 43 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
— Pittsburgh is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
— 2nd-year QB Pickett is 9-7 as an NFL starter.
— Team total: under 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Steelers are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six series games.
— Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.

Bengals (1-3) @ Cardinals (1-3)
— QB Burrow (calf) is hampered by calf injury; lot fewer long passes.
— Short week for Cincinnati after Monday night’s win.
— Cincy averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Bengals have only three TD’s on 40 drives this season.
— Bengals gave up 173+ rushing yards in three of four games.
— Cincinnati is 6-4-1 ATS in its last 11 games on natural grass.
— Bengals are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Cincinnati is 14-7-1 ATS in last 22 games coming off a loss (0-1-1 TY). 
— Bengals are 4-4-1 ATS in last nine games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games.
— Team total: under 4-0. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Arizona is 1-3 SU, but they covered three of four games.
— Cards have outscored foes 64-41 in 1st half, were outscored 61-24 in 2nd half. 
— Arizona hasn’t turned ball over in last three games (+3 TO’s for season)
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Cardinals are 10-6 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— QB Dobbs is 1-5 as an NFL starter.
— Arizona is 10-5 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— Last three games, Cardinals allowed 10 TD’s on 23 drives.
— Last three Cardinal games went over the total.
— Team total: over 4-0. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— Cardinals won four of last five series games.
— Three of the four wins were by exactly 3 points.
— Bengals lost 34-31/17-14 in last two visits to Arizona.
— Three of last four meetings went over the total.

Eagles (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)
— Eagles won road games: 25-20 (-4) at NE, 25-11 (-5) at Tampa
— Eagles won first four games (2-1-1 ATS), scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Philly has 8 takeaways in three games (+4 turnovers)
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 29-13 SU.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 6-7 ATS as road favorites (2-0 TY).
— Eagles have nine TD’s on their last 31 drives.
— Hurts is 29-13 as an NFL starter.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 13-12-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Team total: over 3-0-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

— LA scored 30-29 points in its wins, 23-16 in their losses.
— Rams led or were tied in second half of all four games.
— Rams were outscored 49-19 in 2nd half the last three weeks.
— Rams are 17-32 on 3rd down in wins, 8-25 in losses. 
— LA ran ball for 164 yards LW (84 yards/game first three games)
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-3-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Stafford is 95-106-1 as an NFL starter, 21-13 with the Rams.
— Rams have only two takeaways in four games (minus-3 TO’s).
— Under McVay, Rams are 24-32-2 ATS in games coming of a win.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 2-1-1

— Eagles won seven of last eight series games.
— Rams are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Philadelphia.
— Last four series games went over the total.

Jets (1-3) @ Broncos (1-3)
— Jets lost last three games, by 20-5-3 points.
— Jets have been outscored 61-28 in first half of games.
— First four games, Jets gained 4.7/5.0/3.4/5.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Last three games, Jets were outgained 1,141-722.
— Last two games, Jets converted 8-36 third down plays.
— Jets are 8-15 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 11-12 ATS in games coming off a loss
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
— AFC East underdogs are 1-3 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 2-1-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Broncos are 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS so far this season.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Three of their four games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Denver won LW in Chicago, despite trailing 28-7 in 3rd quarter.
— Broncos are 4-9-1 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Denver lost 14 of its last 18 games SU.
— Last three Broncos games went over the total.
— Russell Wilson is 118-74-1 as an NFL starter, 5-14 with Denver.
— AFC West teams are 3-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 2-2. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Jets’ OC Hackett was fired as coach of the Broncos LY.
— This summer, Sean Payton ripped Hackett’s coaching in Denver.
— Broncos won five of last seven series games.
— Jets are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Denver.

Chiefs (3-1) @ Vikings (1-3)
— Chiefs won last three games, by 8-31-3 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs have outscored opponents 75-25 in first half.
— Last two weeks, KC was outscored 18-10 in second half.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC opponents.
— Mahomes is 78-20 SU as an NFL starter.
— Opponents have converted only 17-51 third down plays.
— AFC West teams are 3-9 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— Vikings are 1-3 this year, with losses by 3-6-4 points.
— Minnesota was 11-0 LY in games decided by 8 or less points (1-3 TY).
— Minnesota has turned ball over 11 times already (minus-8).
— Vikings lost their two home games, 20-17/28-24.
— Since 2018, Vikings are 17-26-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Minnesota didn’t allow an offensive TD in LW’s 21-13 win at Carolina.
— Cousins is 74-69-2 as an NFL starter, 1-3 in playoffs.
— NFC North teams are 4-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
— Team total: under 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-1

— Home team won last five series games.
— Chiefs lost 16-10/45-20 in last two visits to Minnesota.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.
— Chiefs upset Minnesota in Super Bowl IV, a long time ago.

Cowboys (3-1) @ 49ers (3-1)
— Three Dallas wins were by a combined score of 108-13.
— Cowboys gave up 222 YR in only loss, 28-16 at Arizona. 
— Last two years, Dallas was 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Cowboys have outscored opponents 42-10 in second half. 
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 14-49.
— Dallas is 15-10 ATS in last 25 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys outgained first three opponents, 1,440-1,039.
— QB Prescott is 66-41 as an NFL starter.
— Cowboys have nine takeaways in three games (+7 turnovers). 
— NFC East teams are 5-5-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

— San Francisco scored 30-30-30-35 points in 4-0 start (3-0-1 ATS). 
— 49ers have outscored opponents 50-18 in 2nd half.
— San Francisco has run ball for 153 yards/game.
— 49ers are 9-1 ATS in last ten games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers have 14 TD’s on 36 drives this year
— 49ers are 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Since beginning of LY, 49ers are +20 in turnovers (+6 in four games TY)
— 2nd-year QB Purdy is 11-1 as NFL starter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Team total: over 3-1. Opponents’ team total: over 3-1

— Teams split their last six meetings.
— 49ers beat Dallas 19-12 here in LY’s playoffs.
— Cowboys are 2-2-1 ATS in last four visits to Santa Clara.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

 
Posted : October 7, 2023 9:59 pm
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