NFL Betting News and Notes Week 6
By Ian Cameron
Sportsmemo.com
I think we know the Oakland Raiders aren’t great but they did play a solid football game and certainly good enough to beat Atlanta. The Raiders outgained the Falcons 474-286 which included 149-45 yard rushing 325-241 yard passing edges. Oakland also nearly doubled Atlanta in time of possession. What was the difference? Oakland failed to capitalize on Atlanta’s turnovers. Atlanta capitalized on Oakland’s turnovers including a huge 79-yard INT touchdown return for by Asante Samuel to give Atlanta a 20-13 – it came when Oakland was driving in Atlanta territory and looking to take the lead. The Falcons stand alone as the only undefeated team in the NFL at 6-0 but it’s becoming clear they have become an overvalued commodity in the betting markets. Atlanta won the game 23-20 but never sniffed a pointspread cover as 9.5-point home favorites. It’s a clear indicator there are no bargains to support the “dirty birds” these days.
Another example of statistical dominance not equaling a straight up win was with the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys played arguably their best game of the season and it still feel short against the Ravens. Dallas had a whopping 30-19 edge in first downs, outgained Baltimore 481-316, outrushed Baltimore on the ground 227-86 and even had a slight passing yardage advantage 254-230. What was the difference here? Dallas took far too many penalties which constantly killed their drives. The Cowboys had the lone turnover in the game which the Ravens of course converted into touchdown. Last but not least, Baltimore got a huge momentum swinging special teams’ kickoff return touchdown by Jacoby Jones right after Dallas had scored seven points of their own to get back within four. It’s the little things that continue kill the ‘Boys. Self-inflicted wounds consisting of penalties, turnovers, poor special teams – including Dan Bailey’s missed FG at the end of the game which would have won the game – and also poor clock management down the stretch. Their failure to run another play and make it an easier kick for Bailey in the final seconds was inexcusable. All that being said, it was yet another underdog ATS winner in a game involving the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas games have seen the underdog go 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games.
Speaking of underdogs, they were barking loud and proud in Week 6 with a 12-2 ATS mark. Overall on the season, NFL underdogs are 57-32-2 ATS after Week 6 which is the second highest amount of underdog pointspread winners after the first six weeks of an NFL season in 35 years.
Two head coaches that all bettors must be wary about betting against this week are Jim Harbaugh and Bill Belichick. Why is that? Both head coaches have been absolute monsters ATS when their teams are coming off a SU loss. Harbaugh is a perfect 4-0 ATS after a defeat with San Francisco. Belichick is 33-18 ATS off a loss during his tenure in New England. These two head coaches will get to prove their strong ATS “bounce back ability” off a SU loss this week with San Francisco hosting Seattle on Thursday night and New England hosting the NY Jets on Sunday.