NFL Betting News and Notes Week 4

Betting Recap - Week 3
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com

National Football League Week 2 Results

Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 7-9
Home-Away
Straight Up 9-7
Against the Spread 9-7
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Vikings (+6.5, ML +220) at Panthers, 22-10
Bills (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Cardinals, 33-18
Eagles (+4, ML +170) vs. Steelers, 34-3

The largest favorite to cover

Seahawks (-10.5) vs. 49ers, 37-18
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Bears, 31-17
Packers (-6.5) vs. Lions, 34-27

Looking California

The Los Angeles Rams and Oakland Raiders posted road victories in Week 3. The Rams win might be the most surprising considering they entered the weekend with nine total points in two games, including ZERO touchdowns. RB Todd Gurley II accounted for two rushing scores himself in the Rams' 37-32 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After getting blanked in Week 1, LA is 2-0 SU/ATS over the past two. The Raiders rebounded from a home loss last weekend, improving to 2-0 SU/ATS on the road this season.

Feeling Minnesota

The Minnesota Vikings lost superstar RB Adrian Peterson (knee surgery) until at least December, if not longer, to injury last weekend. They lost QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) in the preseason. Trouble? What trouble? The Vikings used a suffocating defensive effort, sacking Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton eight times while picking him off twice to help the Vikes improve to 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota looks to keep it rolling with the New York Giants paying a visit to their new palace in downtown Minneapolis next Monday night.

Total Recall

The 'over' nipped the 'under' 9-7 in Week 3 after Monday night's 45-32 shootout featuring the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. In seven games between AFC foes, the 'under' finished 5-2. In five games between two NFC squads, the 'over' finished 6-1. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over/under' is 1-1. So far this season the 'over' is 9-7 in each of the first three weekends.

In games with lines of 47 or more points, the 'over' went 3-2 in five Sunday games. The game with the highest line of Week 3, the Monday Night battle of the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (53.5), also was a shootout and easily cashed the 'over'.

The five games with the lowest totals on the board saw the 'over' go 4-1, with only the Thursday night game between the Houston Texans-New England Patriots (38.5) going 'under' thanks to Houston's goose egg. The 'under' is 3-0 in three games for the Texans, as they're averaging just 10.7 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.7 PPG.

The 'over' went 2-1 in three primetime games in Week 3. Officially, the 'over/under' is 6-4 (60.0%) through 10 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

Bears RB Jeremy Langford (ankle) was carted off in the second half of the Sunday night game at Dallas due to an ankle injury and he did not return.

Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (knee) tweaked his knee late in the win against the Bears and he is scheduled for an MRI Monday.

Dolphins TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) was forced out of Sunday's game against his old team, the Browns, due to a possible concussion.

49ers TE Vance McDonald (hip) did not make it through the full game in Seattle due to a hip injury.

Packers TE Jared Cook (foot) was on crutches and wearing a walking boot after the team's victory against the Lions.

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (knee) checked out early in the rout of San Francisco, and there are reports Wilson might be dealing with an MCL injury. He'll be re-evaluated Monday.

Steelers WR Eli Rogers (toe) departed early in Sunday's rout at Philadelphia after suffering a toe injury and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

The Colts and Jaguars will tangle at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30am ET next Sunday. The two sides split their pair of divisional games last season, with the Jags snapping a six-game losing streak in the series in emphatic fashion Dec. 13, 2015 by a 51-16 score. The Jaguars covered both meetings last season, but they're just 2-5 ATS over the past seven in the series.

The Panthers head to Atlanta to battle the Falcons in a key NFC South matchup. Carolina is 5-2 SU in the past seven meetings in this series, and they'e 6-2 ATS in the past eight.

The Bears return home to face the Lions in an NFC North matchup. Lately this series has been all Detroit, with the Lions winning six in a row. The Lions are also an impressive 9-3 ATS in the past 12 matchups. Chicago's last win in the series came Dec. 30, 2012 in Detroit, and the last win against the Lions at Soldier Field came Oct. 22, 2012.

The Patriots will host the rival Bills in an AFC East tussle in Foxboro, the final game before QB Tom Brady returns from suspension. New England has rolled in this series, winning eight of the past nine meetings, with their only win coming in a meaningless Week 17 game in 2014 when the Patriots rested most of their starters. New England is 5-3-1 ATS over the past nine against Buffalo.

The Texans and Titans do battle in another AFC South fight. Lately it has been all Texans, going 4-0 SU in the past four against the Titans, with Houston covering five in a row. The Texans are also 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings in the series while winning seven of the past eight.

Opening Line Report - Week 4
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Records aren’t always what they seem in the NFL, as varying degrees of difficulty from schedule to schedule often plays tricks on the minds of bettors.

The Panthers and Bengals, for example, both fell to 1-2 with home defeats Sunday, but considering the teams Carolina (Denver, Minnesota) and Cincinnati (Pittsburgh, Denver) have lost to, it’s far too early to dismiss either.

Meanwhile, which of the five 3-0 clubs are for real?

It’s hard to make that case for Baltimore just yet. With their three wins coming against Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville (a combined record of 1-8 ), the Ravens still have plenty of convincing to do.

It’s easier to make the case for the Broncos, Vikings, Patriots and Eagles, as each has logged impressive wins.

So, as you’re handicapping Week 4 in the NFL, be prudent about how much weight you’re giving to records. Looks can be deceiving.

Here are Sunday night’s Las Vegas consensus lines for next week’s card. Totals are from CG Technology.

Thursday, Sept. 29

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

The Bengals have dropped two in a row, unable to hold serve at home Sunday against the Broncos following last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. The line for next week’s Thursday nighter opened a manageable -6 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, although that number didn’t last long, as it moved to -6.5 at the Westgate and opened -7 at other Vegas books.

The Dolphins, as 10-point favorites, needed overtime to get past the lowly Browns and third-string quarterback Cody Kessler on Sunday.

“It’s shocking how Miami plays up to certain teams and down to certain teams,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I’ve never understood that team for years now. At times they look good, and at times, it’s like how can they be this bad and stupid. They really should have lost today.”

Sunday, Oct. 2

Indianapolis Colts (-2, 49.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis was bet from -1 to -2.5 at the Westgate within the first hour of wagering Sunday, while the line remained as low as -1 at CG Technology. Here’s a friendly reminder that if you’re planning a night next Saturday, get your bet in before you hit the town, because this game from London kicks off early (9:30 a.m. ET ).

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-9.5, 45.5)

The Browns are 0-3, but Salmons stresses wins against the Ravens last week and the Dolphins this week narrowly escaped them, and that their season-opening loss in Philadelphia looks better with every Eagles victory.

Yet, the Browns were spotted 10 points by Miami and are close to double-digit dog distinction again next week in Washington (the Wynn, in fact, was dealing Washington -10 even). The Dolphins and Redskins are not exactly NFL powerhouses. How bad can Cleveland be?

“They’re playing a third string quarterback, and it’s hard to play back to back on the road, especially when you lose the first one,” Salmons said. “Cleveland had a million injuries today, too, but they played hard, I’ll give them that. They should have won. I don’t know if that says a lot about Cleveland or it says a lot bad about Miami.”

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4.5)

While CG Technology on Sunday was dealing New England -4.5, Salmons is waiting to learn more about the Patriots’ quarterback situation before posting a number.

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at New York Jets

CG Technology put Seattle -1 on its board Sunday night, and the Westgate offered -2.5 on its advanced Week 4 lines issued last Tuesday. But if Russell Wilson can’t go and Trevone Boykin replaces him, the Jets will be favored, according to Salmons.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Considering the unrest in Charlotte this week, it’s hard to dismiss the distraction factor in the Panthers’ loss to Minnesota on Sunday, and Carolina is chalked up as the 3- to 4-point favorite on the road next week vs. the Falcons.

Detroit Lions (-2) at Chicago Bears

CG Technology opened Detroit -1 with an immediate shift to -2, while the Westgate opened -2.5.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5, 40.5)

There was a mix of -6.5s and -7s around Las Vegas on Sunday night, as Houston comes off extra rest to host this division rival.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 46.5)

Both of the Raiders’ wins this season have come on the road, and they’re now 7-1 ATS in their last eight away games, dating back to last season. Next week, they get over a field goal against a Ravens team that may be overrated by the public after three wins vs. inferior competition. While most Vegas books opened Baltimore -3.5, William Hill U.S. went -4.

Denver Broncos (-3, 44.5) at Tampa Bay Bucs

The Westgate opened the Broncos -2.5, but was pushed to -3 after about an hour of betting Sunday night. CG Technology opened -2 and moved to -2.5. Plenty of bettors will be happy to lay a field goal or less with the 3-0 Broncos in this spot.

“The simple analysis is Denver had the best defense in the NFL last year and you take away (Peyton) Manning and you put in some rookie (sic) no one knew anything about – and it’s easy to say anyone can throw a spiral, but Manning couldn’t, and this kid (Trevor Siemian) can throw it some,” Salmons said. “He’s gonna throw silly passes here and there, but their defense is still awesome. Each week Denver looks better and better and better.”

Siemian will eventually have to deal with adversity, however.

“I still think he’s gonna play some silly games and have some bad turnover games,” Salmons said. “It hasn’t happened yet, but I feel like it’s gotta happen at some point. There were a lot of people who thought it would happen (Sunday at Cincinnati), and it didn’t. He played great today.”

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at San Francisco 49ers

Different opinions were expressed by bookmakers at CG and the Westgate, as the shops opened Dallas -1.5 and -3, respectively. Naturally, the smaller number was bet up to -2 (-115) and the bigger number was bet down to -2.5

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

Most shops opened San Diego -3.5, while CG was on its own at -4.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-9, 43.5)

The Rams have shaken off their Week 1 embarrassment with back-to-back straight-up wins as underdogs, last week vs. Seattle and this week at Tampa. They’ll be catching a big number again next week, although CG was bet down from 10 to 9 on Sunday night.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 47.5)

While Pitt opened as high as -5.5 for Le’Veon Bell’s expected return, Coasts opened -5 and moved to -4.5 on Sunday night.

Monday, Oct. 3

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43.5)

The Wynn opened Minnesota -3.5 and CG hung -4.5, while all the other Vegas shops went with -4.

Best Bets - Week 4
By Sportsbook.ag

Week 3 of the NFL season was a good one for the sportsbooks as there were numerous underdogs that not only covered the spread, but won outright.

This feature last week on underdogs of 4+ points isolated all the games that applied, and further narrowed it down to Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA Rams (+190), and Philadelphia (+160) as those with the best chance to win.

Well all four of those underdogs won outright so bettors that pay attention to this weekly feature were able to come away with a big payday.

Week 4's list of sizable underdogs is a little shorter than what we've recently seen, and not counting the TNF game with Miami (+7.5), there are currently seven games that fit the “underdogs of +4 or more” and it's time to start narrowing down the teams that have the best chance to win outright.

Week 4 Underdogs that Qualify

Cleveland (+7.5); ML (+300)
Buffalo (+6); ML (+200)
Tennessee (+5); ML (+195)
New Orleans (+4); ML (+165)
LA Rams (+7.5); ML (+275)
Kansas City (+6); ML (+210)
New York Giants (+4.5); ML (+185)

Right off the bat we have some repeat offenders from last week as Cleveland, Buffalo, and the LA Rams all find themselves on this list once again. It's likely that Cleveland will make a weekly appearance on this list each week and while I don't think they'll end up 0-16 SU, they are not a team anyone can have too much confidence in putting a ML bet down on.

Buffalo is in New England to get the last crack at beating the Patriots without Tom Brady and do appear to be a solid underdog to back on the ML. At +200 the value is there to back the Bills in this AFC East rivalry game, and everyone knows how badly Rex Ryan wants to beat Bill Belichick any chance he gets. The Bills came out of their early season funk with a big win vs. Arizona last week and should definitely be considered.

Speaking of Arizona, they host the third repeat offender on this list in the Rams, and this is one of those situations where it's extremely tough to consider the Rams for another outright upset. Arizona is mad at themselves for how they played vs. Buffalo last week and should very well bounce back with a dominant win like they did in Week 2 after they felt they gave one away in a Week 1 loss to those same Patriots.

Regarding the rest of the list, there are two teams I've isolated as the best teams to pull off the outright upset this week and they are the New Orleans Saints (+165), and New York Giants (+185).

The Saints are 0-3 SU and desperately need a win to save their 2016 season and should be able to find one in Drew Brees' old stomping grounds out in San Diego. The Chargers are really banged up on the injury front and while the Saints defense is arguably the worst in the league again this season, they did play well in their lone road game (16-13 loss @NYG) and I expect a similar performance here. Brees and company on offense will continue to do their part and at +165 on the ML, this is one of the best wagers out there this week.

The Giants are in a little tougher on the road against an undefeated Minnesota team who have beaten Green Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks. But the jury is still out on Minnesota's ability to put up points with their offense right now and that could pose a problem for the Vikings sooner than later. Yes, Minnesota's defense is the best in the league right now and Eli Manning is never shy about turning the ball over, but when the Giants play a complete game with limited mistakes for 60 minutes, they can beat anyone in this league.

With Minnesota being 0-7 ATS in their last seven appearances on MNF, expect this one to be close throughout.

NFL Week 4 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: The first of this season’s trips across the pond sees the Jaguars “host” the Colts in London, marking the fourth straight year the Jags will play at Wembley Stadium. It’s the first of three NFL games we’ll see played in England this month and will be the first time Indianapolis has made the journey. Jacksonville improved to 1-2 by beating the Bills 34-31 last year and will be facing an AFC South rival for the first time as this becomes only the second divisional game played overseas (Jets beat Dolphins 31-17 last year). All three international games involving the Jags have gone ‘over’ the posted total since they’ve surrendered 34.7 points, so Gus Bradley will have to reverse that trend to slow down a Colts attack that is averaging 27.0 per game, currently tied for third with New England in the AFC. Jacksonville snapped a six-game losing streak against Indianapolis last December, winning 51-16 thanks to four second-half touchdowns from Blake Bortles. Luck is 5-1 against the Jags, losing only his first encounter back in 2012, but missed both meetings last season.

Cleveland at Washington: The Browns are a missed field goal away from earning the first win of the Hue Jackson era, but didn’t cut kicker Cody Parkey in spite of him going 3-for-6 and blowing a 44-yarder at the gun in Miami. Rookie Cody Kessler is going to start again, which means Terrelle Pryor’s versatility will likely continue to be showcased. Top receiver Josh Gordon will be serving the final game of his suspension, so ‘Skins corner Josh Norman will likely see a lot of Pryor with rookie standout Corey Coleman also still out. Washington created turnovers in order to avoid an 0-3 start with an upset at the Giants and can get back to .500 if it doesn’t lose a third consecutive home game, something it hasn’t suffered through since 2013 and hasn’t experienced to start a season since 1998. DeSean Jackson sat out practice on Wednesday to rest knee and ankle injuries suffered last week, putting his availability in question. Barring a setback, he’ll likely be out there.

Buffalo at New England: Injured QB Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) threw in practice, as did Jacoby Brissett (thumb), so those hoping to see what Julian Edelman has retained from his Kent State days will likely be disappointed. The Patriots are looking to wrap up a 4-0 start without Tom Brady and have only trailed for 6:02 of a possible 180 minutes of game action without him. New England has beaten the Bills in eight of the last nine and is 28-3 against them since Dec. 2000. Rob Gronkowski is likely to play after debuting last week without getting a catch, drawing a single target in the red zone. Sammy Watkins didn’t practice Wednesday and is likely a game-time decision at best as he deals with recurring issues following foot surgery. Buffalo re-committed to its run game under newly appointed offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and played its best game of the season in an upset of Arizona. The Bills are hoping to get back starting left tackle Cordy Glenn but are still without suspended tackle Seantrel Henderson as they face a Pats defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per carry.

Seattle at N.Y. Jets: While on the subject of run defense, New York has given up the third-fewest yards of any team thus far (71.7 per game), although it has been victimized by long pass plays in addition to turnovers. The Jets are hosting the Seahawks for the first time since 2004 and haven’t lost a home date against them since 1983, back when they played in Queens at the now-demolished Shea Stadium. That streak encompasses five straight wins, the last of which came thanks to nearly 500 yards of total offense 12 years ago. History likely won’t repeat itself in that regard, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off a six-interception game, but defense can certainly be a driving force for the Jets since Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is attempting to gut it out through knee and ankle injuries and managed to produce just three points at L.A. in his team’s last road game. Seattle is allowing a league-low 12.3 points.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers can’t be overly concerned with a slow start, but are in danger of falling two games back in the NFC South unless they pull off this road win. Carolina hasn’t trailed its division since blowing out the Falcons 34-3 at the Georgia Dome to close the 2014 regular season in a winner-take-all game, but also suffered its only regular-season loss there last December, ending its perfect run at 14-0. The Panthers have already lost more games this season than they did in ’15 and have Cam Newton coming off a twisted ankle while RB Jonathan Stewart remains sidelined by a hamstring injury. The Falcons come off a short week and aren’t the picture of perfect health themselves. Matt Ryan finished off the Monday night win wearing a glove to protect a banged-up thumb but insists he’s good to go. He’ll be working with a receiving corps that has taken a few hits since Julio Jones (calf) is hurt and comes off a one-catch night while Mohamed Sanu (shoulder) is likely to play but hasn’t practiced this week.

Detroit at Chicago: Quarterback Jay Cutler was back at practice for Chicago on Wednesday, working his way back from a thumb sprain that kept him out of the Week 3 loss to Dallas. It’s still unclear whether he’ll play or give way to backup Brian Hoyer again, but it looks like primary running backs Jeremy Langford (ankle) and Ka’Deem Carey (hamstring) will be absent, leaving the ground game in the hands of rookie Jordan Howard and recent signee Joique Bell, formerly of Detroit. Chicago is one of only four winless teams, a boat the Lions would be in if not for Matt Prater’s game-winning field goal in Indianapolis in Week 1. They have replaced Calvin Johnson’s production via Marvin Jones, who leads the NFL with 408 receiving yards after hauling in six passes for 205 yards in Green Bay. After losing Ameer Abdullah (foot) for the season, Detroit’s run game struggled against the Packers, although falling behind 31-3 eliminated offensive balance. We’ll see if the Lions can get a ground game going behind rookie Dwayne Washington and Theo Riddick against a Bears defense that ranks 30th against the run. Green Bay ranks first. Detroit has won six straight in the series, last losing in 2012.

Tennessee at Houston: It should be telling to see how the Texans respond to the disappointing news that J.J. Watt is likely to miss the rest of the season after aggravating a back injury. They entered last Thursday brimming with optimism, invading New England with the intention of sending a message on a national stage. They delivered one, alright, but it wasn’t the one they were shooting for. It came through loud and clear as “not ready.” Now, after losing Watt, we’ll see whether Brock Osweiler can rally the troops at home and begin returning on Houston’s investment. The Titans came up short on a second straight comeback bid when Marcus Mariota’s fourth-down pass in the red zone sailed wide in a 17-10 loss to the Raiders, but they’ve been in every game thus far and have played games that have gone ‘under’ the posted total each time, same as Houston. These are the NFL’s two lowest-scoring teams, averaging 14.0 points per game. The Texans have won seven of eight in this series against the franchise that left town for Nashville in 1996, ending their run as the Houston Oilers.

Oakland at Baltimore: The Ravens have given up fewer points than anyone in the AFC through three weeks and have a perfect record to show for it after surviving three one-possession games that each could have gone the other way in the closing stages. While Joe Flacco has been inconsistent thus far as he returns from last November’s ACL and MCL tears, he completed 21 consecutive passes at one point in last week’s win over the Jags and has a chance to exploit the league’s worst pass defense, the only one in the NFL that has allowed over 1,000 yards thus far. The Raiders (2-1) have more wins than all of the Ravens’ opponents thus far combined (1-8 ) and won last year’s meeting in Oakland (37-33), but are 0-5 against the Ravens in Baltimore over the last 20 years, losing by a combined 84 points.

Denver at Tampa Bay: The Broncos took their act on the road for the first time this season and tamed the Bengals behind Siemian, but defense will continue to be the driving force behind a second championship and has contributed to the NFL fourth-largest scoring output. The Bucs have given up more points than anyone (101) and have seen Jameis Winston throw for as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns in losses the past few weeks, although the 22-year-old did set a new career-high with 405 passing yards against the Rams. RB Doug Martin (hamstring) is unlikely to return this week, which makes a home upset even more unlikely as Tampa Bay looks to snap a three-game losing streak against Denver that dates back to 1999.

Dallas at San Francisco: The Cowboys announced that Dez Bryant suffered a hairline fracture in his knee but haven’t ruled him out for this contest. Still, the possibility that rookie QB Dak Prescott will have to win a game without his No. 1 receiver is very real. Although Cole Beasley leads the team in receptions and targets, he benefits from the attention Bryant and tight end Jason Witten command. Terrence Williams would become Dallas’ primary deep threat. The 49ers can use all the help they can get considering they’ve given up 83 points in road losses to the Panthers and Seahawks after blanking the Rams at home in Week 1. The Cowboys have health concerns along their vaunted offensive line, so San Francisco has a chance to pull off an upset and win its first home game over its historical rival since 1997.

New Orleans at San Diego: After getting lit up at home on Monday night, the Saints make their first of three west coast trips looking for their first victory of any kind in 2016 since Week 17 of last season on Jan. 3. New Orleans has suffered through a winless preseason and dropped the first three games, mirroring what it did in ‘15. The Saints won in Week 4 last year, so a repeat here would be welcome, but watching awful defense waste the prouction of a Drew Brees-led attack that has posted 26.3 points and an NFL-best 341.7 yards per game has played out like a recurring nightmare. The Chargers have survived the loss of top receiver Keenan Allen (ACL), versatile back Danny Woodhead (ACL) and legendary tight end Antonio Gates (hamstring) but are still averaging 29.0 points per game and have enough juice to get back to .500. This game packs Week 4’s largest total, but dating back to 2000, all four meetings between these teams have produced at least 55 points, all going over the posted total.

Los Angeles at Arizona: The last of this week’s divisional battles gives the Rams an opportunity to win a third straight game and really shake up the NFC West. L.A. managed its first offensive touchdowns of the season, adding a 77-yard fumble return on defense. Case Keenum hit on a pair of huge pass plays and Todd Gurley found the end zone twice from 1-yard out in a 37-32 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Rams pulled of a 24-22 upset as a 7-point underdog in Glendale last season, so they should be a confident group coming in. After an embarrassingly flat effort in Buffalo, the Cardinals are in a great bounce-back spot, but Carson Palmer threw four interceptions and completed barely half of his 50 passes against the Bills and faces a defense capable of consistently disrupting his rhythm once again.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Week 4’s Sunday night showdown is a good one, joining Raiders-Ravens and the MNF clash as the only games between teams with winning records. Reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week Marcus Peters leads the NFL with four interceptions and has 12 in 19 games for a Chiefs defense that also has a league-high 32 pass breakups, 11 of which are credited to him. He left Wednesday’s practice with a flu that should clear up by the weekend and has the full attention of Ben Roethlisberger, who failed to throw a TD pass against the Eagles on Sunday but hasn’t had that happen in consecutive weeks since the final two regular-season games in 2011. He’ll have RB LeVeon Bell back as an option out of the backfield, so Kansas City will have to deal with a potent offense as it attempts to win at Heinz Field for the first time in four tries. The Chiefs, who probably won’t have Jamaal Charles (knee) back but are getting by nicely with backup Charcandrick West again, haven’t tasted victory in Pittsburgh since a win at Three Rivers Stadium back in 1986.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: This is a great test for both teams, who would each be undefeated if Manning hadn’t been so careless in the second half against Washington. Few teams have more weapons than the Giants, but the Vikings have shut down Mariota, Aaron Rodgers and Newton, surrendering an average of 13.3 points per game while putting a fierce, attacking defense on display. Surviving the loss of Adrian Peterson will be a week-to-week ordeal, but they should be ok here considering Sam Bradford knows the Giants well and Minnesota should benefit from a tremendous homefield advantage at the new U.S. Bank Stadium. New York has lost its last three games in Minneapolis and has surrendered over 40 points in each of the last two setbacks. That has to be disconcerting for the Giants considering they enter this game with depth issues in the secondary due to injuries.

NFL Week 4

Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) – Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2) – Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0) – Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2) – Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1) – Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3) – Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1) – Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.

Raiders (2-1) @ Ravens (3-0) – Baltimore’s 3-0 start was vs Bills-Browns-Jags, not exactly a tough start, but 3-0 is 3-0; Ravens have only nine TDs, but tried nine FGs- they’re 7-2 in last nine games with Oakland- they lost 37-33 at Oakland in Week 2 LY. Raiders are 0-5 in Baltimore, losing last three by 19+ points each, but last visit was in ’12. Oakland is on road for third time in four weeks; they’ve run ball for 153 yards/game so far, with +4 turnover ratio. Oakland foes are just 11-33 on 3rd down. Ravens are 10-17-1 in last 28 games as home favorite. Raiders covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Broncos (3-0) @ Buccaneers (1-2) – Tampa Bay allowed 77 points in losing last two weeks; they allowed defensive TD in both games. Bucs ran ball for 86 ypg so far- they miss injured RB Martin. Last 8+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-20-1 as a home dog- they gave up four TDs to Rams LW, after LA hadn’t scored a TD in first two games. Denver is off to 3-0 start in Siemian era; they’re 4-1-1 as a road favorite under Kubiak, 16-33 on 3rd down this year. Broncos are 6-2 vs Bucs, winning last three by 3-3-8 points; Tampa’s last series win was in 1999. Broncos are 2-1 here, with last visit in ’04. AFC West teams are 3-1 as favorites outside the division; NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games.

Cowboys (2-1) @ 49ers (1-2) – Dallas scored 29 ppg in winning last two games, scoring 7 TDs on last 19 drives; WR Bryant has hairline fracture in knee (check status). 49ers allowed 83 points in losing last two games, even with +1 turnover ratio both games. Niners allowed eight TDs on foes’ last 25 drives. Cowboys covered five of last six games as a road favorite; they are 2-7-2 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points; 49ers are 8-3-1 in last 12 games as home dog, 4-1 in last five where spread was 3 or less. Home side lost four of last five series games; Dallas won three of last four visits here- average total in last seven series games is 55.6. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs outside its division; NFC West teams are 2-4.

Saints (0-3) @ Chargers (1-2) – San Diego could easily be 3-0, but blew late leads in losing both road games. Saints’ QB Brees played first five years of career in San Diego, going 30-28 as a starter. NO won by 5-7 points in last two games vs Chargers- this is Brees’ first game back here since leaving the Bolts. Short week/long trip for Saints squad that allowed 417+ yards in all three games so far- they lost to Giants without allowing an offensive TD. San Diego is 5-8 in last 13 games as home favorite; Saints are 6-3-1 in last ten games as a road underdog. Saints have forced only five 3/outs on 28 drives, 4th-least in NFL. NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread outside division; AFC West teams are 7-3.

Rams (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2) – Redbirds are 11-8-1 as home favorite under Arians, but 4-6 in last 10 tries; they got smoked 33-18 in Buffalo LW, turning ball over five (-4) times; Buffalo’s three TD drives were 53-52-47 yards. Underdogs covered all three LA games; Rams upset Seattle/Tampa last two weeks, holding off Bucs in red zone as game ended LW- they scored four TDs in Tampa, after not having any on offense in first two games- they averaged 6.6/6.8 yards/pass last two games, solid numbers. Arizona won four of last five series games, with three wins by 17+ points; Rams split last six visits here, which is much shorter trip now that team is in LA.

Chiefs (2-1) @ Steelers (2-1) – Pitt lost 23-13 at Arrowhead LY, ending 3-game series win streak; Chiefs lost last five visits here, with four of those losses by 8 or less points. KC’s last win in Steel City was in ’86. Steelers are 13-6 in last 19 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year; they got whacked 34-3 in Philly LW after allowing only two TDs on 19 drives in winning first two games- they’ve forced only four 3/outs so far, tied for least in NFL. Pitt gets RB Bell (suspension) back this week; rumors had him taking some practice reps at WR. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside its division, 4-2 as underdogs. Chiefs had eight takeaways in win over Jets LW; their only TD drive (defense scored two) was 35 yards.

Giants (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0) – Giants’ three games were decided by total of six points; they beat Saints without scoring offensive TD, then lost 29-27 at home to Redskins LW, blowing 21-9 lead, allowing TD plays of 44-55 yards. Minnesota’s defense/special teams have three TDs, making up for offense (three TDs) that is getting used to new QB Bradford (beat Giants twice LY while with Eagles). Vikings are 9-2 as home favorite under Zimmer; Giants are 4-6-1 in last 11 games as a road underdog- they passed for 690 in two home games last two weeks, should enjoy climate inside dome. Minnesota allowed total of 40 points in three games; they gained only 284-211 yards in last two games, but lead NFL with a +8 turnover margin.

Armadillosports.com

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Houston Texans' opened 6.5-point favorites in their Week 4 matchup versus AFC South rival Tennessee Titans but have since been bet down to -4.5 to -5.0 points thanks to J.J.Watts re-injuring his back. Both teams have a chip on their shoulder. Texans' are reeling from a 27-0 thumping up in Foxboro, the Titans from a controversial end zone non-interference call with 12 seconds remaining in a 17-10 home loss to Raiders.

A slew of negative betting trends going against Tennessee in this spot. Titans are a money-burning 4-12 against the betting line, 1-14-2 against the spread vs the AFC South including 2-9 ATS handed 4.5 or less points by a division rival. Additionally, Titans enter 2-11-2 ATS vs a division opponent off a loss, 1-5 ATS last six as visitor in the series.

However, a key to NFL handicapping is to search for hidden gems among a sea of football betting tips. Those doing so will be quick to point out, Houston's devastating loss last week serves as an alarm. Texans have not responded in front of the home audience following a 20 or more point spanking its previous game. In the past five such situations the result has been a 1-5 record against the betting line. Matching that, Texans have struggled at home during Pumpkin month going 2-6-1 ATS.

Despite negative trends lean is Titans facing a Houston squad missing Watts.

Pick Six - Week 4
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 3 Record: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS

Review: The only favorite to come through last week was the Chiefs, who dominated the Jets as three-point favorites. The Lions managed a backdoor cover as 7½-point road underdogs at Green Bay after erasing a 31-3 deficit in a 31-24 loss. The Steelers and Bengals each lost in the favorite role, but the Redskins were able to rally to knock off the Giants as short underdogs.

Seahawks (-2½, 40) at Jets

Seattle
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Seahawks leave the west coast for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories for the first time. Seattle blasted San Francisco last Sunday, 37-18 after being held to 15 points in its first two games. Quarterback Russell Wilson left with a sprained left knee, but he is expected to play on Sunday. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest amount of points in the NFL with 37, 10 behind Philadelphia. However, the Seahawks have struggled on the road against AFC foes under Pete Carroll by posting a 3-9 SU and 3-7-2 ATS record since 2010.

New York
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

The Jets couldn’t get out of their own way last week at Kansas City by turning the ball over eight times, including six interceptions thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City cruised past New York, 24-3, as Fitzpatrick was picked off twice in the end zone. The Jets still own a solid 4-1 ATS record as an underdog during Todd Bowles’ tenure as head coach, including a home ‘dog victory over the Patriots last December. The Jets are hosting the Seahawks for the first time since 2004, as New York has lost each of the past two meetings to Seattle in 2008 and 2012.

Best Bet: New York +2½

Panthers (-3, 50) at Falcons

Carolina
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The defending NFC champions have stumbled out of the gate with losses to the Broncos and Vikings through three games. Carolina managed 10 early points against Minnesota, but were held scoreless in the final three quarters of a 22-10 home defeat as six-point favorites. Quarterback Cam Newton has thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions through three contests (5), as four of the interceptions came in the two defeats. The last time Carolina visited Atlanta in 2015, the Falcons snapped the Panthers’ 14-game winning streak in a 20-13 victory as seven-point underdogs.

Atlanta
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Falcons have been impressive the last two weeks by putting up a combined 80 points in road victories at Oakland and New Orleans. In Monday’s 45-32 triumph over the Saints, Atlanta’s running game shifted into high-gear with 217 yards on the ground, including three touchdowns from Tevin Coleman and 152 yards from Devonta Freeman. In spite of the win at New Orleans, the Falcons have struggled against division foes under Dan Quinn by compiling a 2-6 SU/ATS record the since the start of 2015. However, the Falcons have thrived in the role of an underdog by putting together a 7-2 ATS mark in nine games when receiving points.

Best Bet: Atlanta +3

Raiders at Ravens (-3½, 46½)

Oakland
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Raiders’ defense has been eaten up through three games, allowing a league-worst 476 yards a contest and an average of 340 yards through the air. Oakland managed to hold Tennessee to 10 points in last Sunday’s 17-10 road victory, while causing three takeaways for its second consecutive 2-1 start. The Silver and Black closed as a short favorite in Week 3, but the Raiders have been terrific in the role of a road underdog in Jack Del Rio’s tenure by posting a 7-0 ATS mark. Oakland looks to beat Baltimore for the second straight season after knocking off the Ravens as six-point home ‘dogs last September, 37-33.

Baltimore
Record: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Ravens weren’t expected to lead the AFC North following three weeks, but Baltimore has picked up three wins over teams that own a combined 1-8 record. John Harbaugh’s squad edged past Jacksonville last week, 19-17 as the Ravens have scored only four touchdowns this season, while kicking nine field goals. Baltimore finished last season at 0-6-2 ATS as a favorite, but have improved in that category this season by covering two of its first three when laying points. The Ravens have stepped up defensively by ranking second in yards allowed (254.3) and third in passing yards given up (168.3).

Best Bet: Baltimore -3½

Broncos (-3, 43) at Buccaneers

Denver
Record: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, winning each of their first three games. Denver took care of Cincinnati as a short road underdog last Sunday, 29-17 as Siemian threw a career-high four touchdown passes, including a pair of connections with Emmanuel Sanders. Since the start of last season, the Broncos have excelled as an underdog by going 8-0 ATS, but have compiled a 5-7-2 ATS mark as a favorite. Denver is visiting Tampa Bay for the first time since 2004, as the Bucs covered as underdogs in losses in the Mile High City in 2008 and 2012.

Tampa Bay
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Buccaneers shot out of the gate with an impressive road victory over the Falcons as Jameis Winston threw four touchdown passes. However, Tampa Bay has taken a step back the last two weeks by falling to Arizona and Los Angeles, while allowing 77 points in those two defeats. Winston racked up a career-high 405 passing yards against the Rams, but the Bucs dropped to 0-3 in his three career games when putting up at least 300 yards. Since the start of last season, Tampa Bay has compiled a 3-6 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium, while cashing only once in the past five overall in the underdog role.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay +3

Cowboys (-2, 45½) at 49ers

Dallas
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

The Cowboys rebounded from a one-point opening week setback to the Giants to beat the Redskins and Bears the last two games. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott threw a touchdown pass and ran for another in last Sunday night’s 31-17 blowout of Chicago to pick up their second home cover in the past nine opportunities at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season after going 1-1 SU/ATS in this situation in 2015. Dallas will be without big-play threat Dez Bryant as the wide receiver is sidelined with a knee injury.

San Francisco
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 400/1

The 49ers return home following consecutive road blowouts at Carolina and Seattle, as San Francisco’s lone victory this season came at home against Los Angeles in a 28-0 shutout. San Francisco’s defense has been sliced up the last two weeks by giving up 73 points to the Panthers and Seahawks, while dropping to 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. The UNDER has been nearly automatic at Levi’s Stadium since the beginning of 2015, finishing UNDER the total in eight of the previous nine home contests.

Best Bet: San Francisco +2

Rams at Cardinals (-8, 43)

Los Angeles
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Rams are surprisingly sitting atop the NFC West through three games alongside the Seahawks at 2-1. Technically, Los Angeles has the early tie-breaker advantage over Seattle thanks to a Week 2 home victory, but the Rams’ offense exploded in a 37-32 triumph at Tampa Bay last Sunday to cash outright as 3½-point underdogs. Running back Todd Gurley finally busted out by rushing for 85 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Case Keenum threw his first two touchdown passes of the season. The Rams have won and covered four consecutive games in the underdog role since Week 14 of last season, while knocking off the Cardinals as seven-point ‘dogs last October, 24-22 at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

It’s been a rough start for the defending NFC West champions, who have lost two of their first three games. The only good news from this 1-2 start is both defeats came to New England and Arizona, a pair of AFC foes. Arizona fell behind Buffalo last Sunday, 17-0 and never recovered in a 33-18 setback as five-point road favorites. Carson Palmer was intercepted four times in the loss, as the Cardinals’ quarterback was never picked off more than two times in a game in 2015. Palmer diced up the Rams’ defense last season by throwing for 352 and 356 yards, while Arizona owns a solid 7-1 mark at home off a loss since 2013.

Best Bet: Arizona -8

Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 3 Recap

The ‘over’ posted a 9-7 record last weekend and most of the results were never in doubt. Atlanta, Washington and Denver have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in their first three games while Houston is the only team to watch the the ‘under’ cash in all of its games. Through three weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 25-22-1

Quick Observations

Total Talk followers have now seen the “Thursday Night” angle start 2-0 this season with the New England-Buffalo matchup pending in Week 4.

Houston was shutout last Thursday at New England, the second blanking of this season. The Rams earned the first bagel in Week 1 to San Francisco (28-0) and rebounded in Week 2 with a 9-3 win over Seattle, which is rare. In the previous five seasons, teams off shutouts were 7-14, now 8-14 the L.A. victory. From a total perspective, they averaged just 16.6 points per game and that trend continued with the Rams only scoring nine points.

Sticking with shutouts, the 49ers have allowed a combined 947 yards on defense and 83 points since beating Los Angeles 28-0 in the Monday Night opener.

There have been two totals listed in the thirties this season, both easy ‘under’ winners. Five totals have closed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those contests.

Still early to get a solid sample size but halftime bettors have watched the Vikings and Titans go ‘under’ in the 1st half in each of their first three games, while the Buccaneers and Redskins have been great second-half ‘over’ (3-0) bets.

Off to London

Indianapolis and Jacksonville will meet at Wembley Stadium this Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England in the first of four international games set for the regular season. This will be the 15th game played in London and total bettors have seen a 7-7 stalemate through the first 14 games.

It should be noted that Jacksonville has played in this matchup three times and the ‘over’ has connected in all three with an average score of 55 combined points per game. The Jaguars are 1-2 and the lone win came last year when they outlasted the Bills 34-31 in a game that saw three defensive scores.

The total on this game is hovering between 49 and 50 points, which seems a tad high knowing the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 encounters between the pair. However, Jacksonville did blast Indianapolis 51-16 last season at home but that game was also helped with three scores from non-defensive units.

West to East

My colleague at VegasInsider.com Kevin Rogers wrote a piece this summer on Time Zone Trends in the NFL and how East and West coast teams fared with travel to opposite coasts. It’s a solid read that points out angles to follow from last season, which included a quick note on total results.

In the 2015 regular season, West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and that tendency has carried over this fall with three straight wins to the high side.

Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40½

Make a note that we included Arizona as a West Coast team along with Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco and the newbie – Los Angeles.

Week 4 has two games that fit the above situation:
Oakland at Baltimore
Seattle at N.Y. Jets

Divisional Action

We’ve got six divisional games set for Week 4 and it appears the familiarity angle has helped the offensive units early in the season with the ‘over’ going 9-4 in the first 13 divisional games played this season.

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville:

Buffalo at New England: Due to the quarterback situation with the Patriots, no early total was posted on this game but does it matter? New England has averaged 27 PPG with backups and Buffalo’s total defense is ranked 23rd. What should be noted is that these teams have played to a pair of shootouts in the last two meetings from Buffalo (37-22, 40-32) while the last two encounters from Foxboro were low-scoring affairs (17-9, 20-13). As of Friday evening, a few shops were holding anywhere between 43 and 44 on this total.

Carolina at Atlanta: Does this matchup really warrant a total in the fifties? When you look at Atlanta’s offensive (34.7 PPG) and defensive (30.3 PPG) scoring numbers, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. However, the low side has hit in six straight in this series and the Falcons have been held to 12 PPG during this low-scoring stretch versus the Panthers.

Detroit at Chicago: The number on this game jumped from 46 to 47 ½ and both clubs have been plagued with key injuries to defensive starters. If you’re going to ride total trends in this series, then make a note that ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run from Soldier Field and the ‘over’ has gone 4-0 in the last four between the pair from Ford Field.

Tennessee at Houston: Tough total to handicap here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of points posted. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series yet the total (40½) is the lowest number posted in Week 4. The Texans held the Titans to six points in each of the two meetings last season but Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota played in neither of those meetings and for whatever reason, the former Oregon standout has played much better on the road in his young career.

Los Angeles at Arizona: The total has gone 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but three of the last four playing in the desert have seen the ‘over’ connect. Arizona has averaged 25 PPG during this stretch. Even though the Cardinals were held to 18 last week in their loss to the Bills, they put up more yards than Buffalo but turned the ball over five times.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ cash last Sunday and Monday night, the Bengals and Dolphins easily went ‘under’ (46½) their closing number this past Thursday. Including those results, bettors have seen the total go 5-5-1 through 11 primetime games.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Watching the Steelers only score three points last week was very surprising and I doubt will see that production again, especially with running back Le’Veon Bell returning to action this week. However this Kansas City defense is on fire right now and since allowing 21 first-half points to San Diego in Week 1, the Chiefs have surrendered just five field goals in 2½ games (10 quarters). This pair has met four times since 2011 and the ‘under’ cashed easily in every game (13-9, 16-13, 20-12, 23-13).

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: The Giants and Vikings have both seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games and Minnesota could easily be 3-0 if its defense didn’t score twice in Week 1. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ team last season (12-4-1) and that trend has continued. The offense plays very slow, averaging 57.3 plays per game (ranked 29th) and their defense (295 YPG, 13.3 PPG) is ranked in the Top 5 in both yards and points. New York isn’t clicking on offense (21 PPG) right now and it’s TD-FG (6-5) ratio isn’t a good sign for ‘over’ bettors. These teams played outdoors in Minnesota last season and the Vikings routed the Giants 49-17 as the ‘over’ (45) easily cashed.

Fearless Predictions

Our teaser wager kept us in the black last week ($90) and kept the overall bankroll growing after three weeks ($280). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Baltimore 46½

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 40½

Best Team Total: Under Dallas 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Oakland-Baltimore 37½
Under Los Angeles-Arizona 52
Under Denver-Tampa Bay 52

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Hello to our friends in London!

The NFL once again sends you their tired and weak with the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars for the first of three London NFL games this season. But this is actually London's home team, kind of. It's their club at least one game a year through an agreement that expires in 2021. Soon they'll probably have hooligans protecting the club like a proper English football firm.

The best thing about the London NFL games is they get to legally bet at bet shops all around Wembley Stadium. And the fans no longer cheer the loudest when an extra-point or field goal is score.

Here in the states the Colts opened as 1-point favorites over London's Jaguars and Indianapolis money has pushed Indianapolis to -2.5 The total opened at 49.5 and its down to 49 as of Friday afternoon.

William Hill sports books reported they have 80 percent of the cash on the Colts. After six straight Colts wins over Jacksonville, the Jags finally won in December, 51-16. The Jags covered both games last season and an 0-5 ATS streak against them..

Washington has a couple different numbers in Las Vegas for their home game against the Cleveland Browns, who showed some fight last week in their overtime loss at Miami. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Redskins -9 and on Friday they went to -7.5. That's the low number. The high number is -9.5 at Aliante. Most everyone is is -8 or -8.5. The total jumped from 45.5 to 46.5 on Wednesday. William Hill Has 90 percent of the cash on Cleveland taking the points.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett are both 'questionable' for the New England home game against Buffalo. Both were limited in practice and who starts will be a game time decision. Most books still don't have the game on the board as they await for concrete information. CG Technology books have the Patriots -6 (-115) and Station Casinos has them -6.5. Boyd Gaming has the only total in town posted at 43.

The Westgate opened Seattle -3 (EV) for its road game at the New York Jets. It went to -2.5 (flat) quickly and has been steady. The total has dropped from 41.5 to 40. The Seahawks offense finally came to life last week with a 37-18 win against the 49ers while the Jets come of an awful turnover infested game at Kansas City. After the public parlay bettors all stayed from their Seahawks last week, they're all over them this week.

The Carolina Panthers opened at -3.5 and are now 3 (flat) for their game at Atlanta. Cam Newton has been beat up in two losses to the Denver and Minnesota defenses. The Falcons give up 30 points a game. The total has moved up from 50 to 50.5.

Detroit opened as 2.5-point favorites at Chicago and it moved to -2.5 on Monday where it stayed until Wednesday when it moved when the Westgate went to -3 (EV). They're 3 (flat) now, while the total has gone from 47 to 47.5 with a brief stop at 48. The Lions have swept the Bears the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-3 and still banged up using back-up Brian Hoyer at quarterback.

The Houston Texans don't have All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt and apparently there are a few bettors and bookmakers that think his value to the number is worth 1.5-points. On Sunday night, Houston opened as a 6.5-point home favorite against Tennessee. On Tuesday the number dropped to -5.5 and on Thursday it dropped from -5 to -4.5. The total is consistent at 40.5.

Baltimore has won and covered all three of their games, but are only -3.5 at home against Oakland. A little bit of money came in on the Raiders so the Ravens are now -3.5 (EV). The total hasn't moved off 46.5

The Denver Broncos are also a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS, but they're rapidly increased rating makes them -3 at Tampa Bay. Bettors pushed the number from an opener of -2.5 to -3 real quick on Sunday when the number opened. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

Dallas opened -3 at San Francisco and settled at -2 on Thursday. The total has dropped from 46 to 45.

San Diego opened as 3.5-point home favorites over New Orleans, and got as high as -4.5, but settled at -4 on Wednesday. The total shot up from 52 to 53.5 after the Saints Monday night performance.

Arizona opened as 9-point favorite over Los Angeles on Sunday night bettors jumped on the 'dog Monday and on Wednesday the number moved to -8. The total opened 43.5 and sits at 43.

Pittsburgh opened as a 5.5-point home favorite over Kansas City and boosted the number to -6 Monday. It got as low as -4.5 on Thursday before settling at -5. The total has gone from 47.5 to 47.

The top public parlay plays of the week so far are the Broncos, Seahawks, Cowboys and Lions. The bettors got buried last week with their parlays so we'll how strong and confident they come to the window this week.

SNF - Chiefs at Steelers
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

After two sluggish performances to start the season the Chiefs played to their expected abilities last week against the Jets in a 24-3 win. Sunday night we'll get to witness who the real Chiefs are as they visit Heinz Field for match against the Steelers who are listed a 5-point favorites with a total set at 47.

Pittsburgh comes with a 2016 story completely opposite of the Chiefs. After winning and covering its their first two games, the were buried 34-3 last week at Philadelphia as 3.5-point road favorites. No TD's for Ben Roethlisberger and one interception. The Steelers offense, considered by many to be the best in the NFL, only gained 251 yards with the running game only producing 29 yards.

The Steelers rush attack should get a boost Sunday as Le'Veon Bell returns from a three game suspension. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says Bell is worth a half-point to the number.

So what's it going to be Sunday night? Will the Chiefs go on a run similar to last season when they figured things out after a 1-5 start to win their final 10 regular season games? Will the Steelers bounce back at home and completely forget about last weeks disaster? Or did the Eagles lay down a blue print for all other teams to follow on how to slow the Steelers offense?

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate SuperBook opened Pittsburgh 5.5-point favorites on last Sunday night and Monday morning they pushed the number to -6. However, on Tuesday there was some respected money taking +6, and then Wednesday they found takers at the dead number of +5.5 and then on Thursday morning, they moved to -4.5. The total has dropped from 47.5 to 47.

TURNOVERS IMPORTANT?

You can't adjust ratings too much on turnovers, but when a pattern starts it's hard to ignore. The Steelers have a -1 turnover ratio and the Chiefs are +5. Of course, Ryan Fitzpatrick had a lot to do with that disparity at Kansas City last week with his offense giving away 8 balls, but still, the number resonates. The Chiefs were doing something right, and this is supposed to be a possible AFC representative to make a Super Bowl visit. Whatever happened the previous week last shouldn't weigh too much into a wagering decision, but the Steelers looked awful last week. By the way, the Eagles 3-0 start has been aided by a +6 turnover margin, which is second behind the Vikings (+8 ).

PROPER RATINGS?

I haven't lowered the Steelers in their rating this season despite last weeks result, but the Chiefs were lowered a half-point after their come-from-behind win against the Chargers in Week 1. It really was a good finish, but they were lousy in the first-half. KC's rating has remained intact the last two weeks, even though the Chiefs looked really good last week against a quality team in the Jets. My line says the Chiefs shouldn't be getting +5 or more, and that's with including Le'Veon Bell to Pittsburgh's equation.

TRENDS

Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in last seven road games.
Kansas City has failed to cover its last four following an ATS win.
Kansas City has gone Under total in five of last seven games.

Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in last nine games following a loss.
Pittsburgh has gone Under in six of its past seven games.

RECENT MEETINGS

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the Chiefs have covered four of the past five. The last four meetings have stayed Under, including last October when the Chiefs won 23-13 as 3.5-point home favorites. Bell rushed for 121 yards and Antonio Brown caught eight passes for 124 yards, but Landry Jones was starting QB with Roethlisberger injured. The Big Ben effect was huge as Pittsburgh converted only 2 of 10 third downs.

DIVISION ODDS

The Chiefs came into the season 8/5 to win the AFC East as the second choice behind Denver at 3-to-2. The gap has widened with Denver looking so spectacular with its 3-0 start. They are now 4/5 and the Chiefs are 9/4. The Raiders are 9/2 and the Chargers are 12/1.

Pittsburgh has gone from EVEN to 5/7 after three weeks of play. Baltimore is 9/4, Cincinnati is 7/2 and Cleveland is 300/1.

SUPER BOWL ODDS

Because of the Patriots (7/2) winning without Tom Brady and Denver (12/1) doing well, their Super Bowl odds dropping has changed the complexion of the rest of the AFC. Pittsburgh has gone from 8/1 up to 10/1 and Chiefs from 20/1 to 25/1.