NFL Betting News and Notes Week 3

Opening Line Report - Week 3
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

There are three games on the NFL’s Week 3 card that could easily show up again during the AFC playoffs: Texans at Patriots, Broncos at Bengals, and Jets at Chiefs. The NFC slate, meanwhile, is dotted with several key division battles, as well as intra-conference showdowns featuring the Vikings at Panthers and Bears at Cowboys.

Here are Week 3 betting lines, with early moves and differences between Las Vegas sports books noted. Numbers are the Las Vegas consensus as of Sunday night at about 11 p.m. ET.

Thursday, Sept. 22

Houston Texans (-2.5/-120) at New England Patriots

With rookie Jacoby Brissett expected to start for Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots open in the unfamiliar role of home underdogs. If the spread holds, it will be the first time New England catches points in Foxboro since it hosted the Broncos in November 2014.

The change from Garoppolo to Brissett has a huge impact on the betting line.

“If Garoppolo was healthy, we’d probably be looking at (New England) -4.5,” said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

While one school of thought says Bill Belichick’s Patriots are just fine no matter who plays quarterback, Salmons stresses Brissett’s lack of experience and the short week to prepare.

“It’s going to be difficult for him,” he said.

Salmons, meanwhile, isn’t quite sold on the Texans.

“They’re decent defensively, but Chicago led that (Week 1) game and let it get away, and Kansas City – as crappy as they played last week and got that lucky win (against the Chargers) – they made sure they didn’t win (Sunday). They really played a bad game. I mean, they turned the ball over and just played really stupid football.”

Early bettors, though, backed the Texans, grabbing opening numbers of -1.5 (CG Technology) and -2 (Westgate).

Sunday, Sept. 25

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5/even)

The Broncos are off to a 2-0 start, but open as road underdogs against a perennial playoff team that’s extremely difficult to beat at home. Is this the spot for Trevor Siemian and Co. to come down to earth?

“That was our thought process in putting the game up at 3.5,” Salmons said. “Denver is winning with their defense right now. You keep thinking that at some point, you need some kind of offense, but they really haven’t so far. … It’s hard to go too overboard on Denver, but they keep winning.”

There was a small early move on the Broncos, who were bet from +3.5 to +3.5 (-120) on Sunday night.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (pick ‘em/-110)

Oakland opened -1 at the Westgate, with the game moving to a pick ‘em after about an hour of wagering. Last year’s meeting between these teams, at Tennessee in Week 12, featured a similar point spread, the Raiders winning 24-21 as 1-point chalk.

Arizona Cardinals (-5/-115) at Buffalo Bills

There was some variance around Las Vegas with this opening number, as CG Technology hung Arizona -4 and the Westgate went -5.5

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (pick ‘em/-110)

Baltimore overcame an early 20-point deficit in Cleveland for the 25-20 win and cover (according to closing lines) to start their season 2-0. While victories over the Browns and Bills won’t convince many bettors, another beatable side awaits the Ravens – the 0-2 Jaguars, who weren’t exactly competitive in San Diego on Sunday.

This line ranged from Baltimore -1 to Jacksonville -1 on Sunday night.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-7/-105)

Miami hasn’t been a favorite of a touchdown or more since 2014. A home date against the Browns changes that.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4/-110)

The 2-0 Giants open as solid favorites against an 0-2 team they have dominated in recent seasons. New York lost the most recent meeting (20-14 at Washington in November) but won the previous five, including going 3-0 SU and ATS at home vs. the Redskins.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8 )

An 18-16 win as 10.5-point dogs at Green Bay in Week 10 began last season’s turnaround for Detroit, which finished the season on a 6-2 run, both SU and ATS. But just as you were thinking the Lions were back to being a factor, they come up empty as 6-point home favorites against Tennessee on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS when laying points at home since the start of last season, including Sunday’s 46-27 win as 12.5-point faves against the Niners. But the Vikes have an answer for that trend: they have covered the spread in their last eight games as road underdogs, as well as 10 of their 11 in the role.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10/-110)

Seattle opened -11 at the Westgate on Sunday before a 1-point move during the first hour of wagering in the 49ers’ direction. Through two weeks, the Seahawks have scored a total of 15 points and scored just one touchdown. At least they get an easy one at home next week. Right, Mr. Salmons?

“I don’t think anything’s easy with Seattle with the way they play offense,” Salmons said. “Their offensive line is just dreadful. They simply can’t score.”

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Bucs (-4/-110)

Early bettors were eager to lay the points with Tampa Bay, despite a lackluster showing at Arizona on Sunday, pushing the opening number of -3.5 up a half point at multiple Las Vegas shops.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5/-110) at Philadelphia Eagles

While this line was posted before oddsmakers had a chance to watch Philly play its second game of the season, there are reasons the Steelers are laying a number this large on the road. According to Salmons, those reason are the way Pitt has looked through two weeks, the Eagles playing on short rest and a rookie QB (Carson Wentz) going up against what evidently is an excellent defense.

Also, the Westgate anticipates public money on the favorite, especially since it’s a late kickoff.

“The public’s going to be betting Pittsburgh in that game, there’s no doubt about that,” Salmons said.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5/-110)

Despite Salmons’ aforementioned misgivings about the Chiefs, his shop opened Kansas City -4 vs. the Jets, before moving to -3.5 and then to -3.5 (even). At the Wynn, K.C. opened -3.5 and were bet to -3.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5/even)

The Colts opened -3 (even), a number snapped up by underdog bettors at multiple Vegas casinos, as it’s clear who has been the better team through two weeks of the season.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-4/-110)

William Hill and Coasts both opened Dallas a tick higher, at -4.5. Dak Prescott continues to impress, and Salmons has noticed the Cowboys have dominated time of possession (they held the ball for 35 minutes against Washington and 36 minutes against the Giants).

“Their ball possession has been amazing, but their defense is spotty,” he said.

“Prescott is playing great,” Salmons added. “His running is adding a different dimension that teams have to account for, and they have to double (Dez) Bryant and it’s opening up the run. Prescott has looked great so far.”

Monday, Sept. 26

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3/-120)

The Westgate opened New Orleans -3.5, adjusting downward during early wagering, while CG Technology stuck at 3.5 as of this writing. The Saints appear to have a fine opportunity to get their first win of the season – they are 15-5 overall and 8-2 at home against Atlanta since Drew Brees arrived in 2006, a trend that will entice favorite bettors at a field goal or less.

NFL Week 3 Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos hit the road for the first time this season as Trevor Siemian looks to continue his impressive start, but it’s the defense that has been the driving force for the defending champs. Von Miller was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week and has four sacks through two games. Even with DeMarcus Ware (fractured arm) out, Denver’s pressure should pose major issues for the Bengals, who have largely struggled offensively outside of hitting a few big plays to A.J. Green against New York’s Darrelle Revis in the season opener. Considering Cincy barely won that contest, a loss in its first home game could cause panic among the natives. The Broncos won last year’s meeting in Week 16 in OT 20-17, but neither starting QB in that game, Osweiler and A.J. McCarron, are expected to be a part of this one since Andy Dalton is healthy again.

Oakland at Tennessee: Second-year QB Marcus Mariota went from looking dehydrated on the sidelines to producing the largest Titans fourth-quarter comeback in a decade. Both the offensive line and secondary have stood out thus far for the Titans, making the first 2-1 start since 2013 possible with the Raiders in town. Only Oakland and Indianapolis have surrendered over 30 points in each of the first two games, but the Colts have an excuse given all their injuries. The Raiders have too much talent on that side of the ball to be struggling this much and picked off Mariota twice in last season’s 24-21 win in Nashville. Derek Carr threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in that game.

Arizona at Buffalo: The Cardinals bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Pats by trouncing the Bucs, but now have to go across the country to face a desperate Bills squad that should benefit from a few days of extra rest after playing last Thursday. With the buzzards circling around Rex Ryan and New England on tap next week, this is a must-win for a team that still has Sammy Watkins (foot) gutting it out through pain and top DT Marcell Dareus suspended. The Bills have actually won five of six in this series dating back to 1986 when the Cards were still in St. Louis. The franchise hasn’t tasted victory in Buffalo since 1971 and is playing for just the fourth time in Orchard Park, where Arizona has never won at the newly renamed New Era Field.

Baltimore at Jacksonville: The Ravens rallied past the Browns to improve to 2-0 and saw TE Dennis Pitta make a triumphant return from what many felt would be a career-ending injury. Despite the good vibes, the combined record of Baltimore’s opponents entering this one is 0-6 and Joe Flacco has looked rusty as he returns from last year’s ACL and MCL tears, so the Jaguars have an opportunity to snap a five-game losing streak that dates back to December. Jacksonville hasn’t lost to Baltimore at home since 2001, winning the last two meetings. Jags kicker Jason Myers won last November’s Week 10 encounter with a 53-yard field goal at the gun, 22-20. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each caught TD passes from Blake Bortles.

Cleveland at Miami: Rookie Cody Kessler, who started for years at USC, will lead the Browns in place of Josh McCown (shoulder), becoming the third different player to open as Cleveland’s quarterback in as many weeks. The Dolphins have come up just short in losses in Seattle and New England and were encouraged by Sunday’s rally from a 31-3 deficit against the Patriots as QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm. Despite its 0-2 mark, Miami is about a double-digit favorite as it opens its home schedule but probably won't have top RB Arian Foster (groin), which means fumble-prone Jay Ajayi and rookie Kenyan Drake would have to carry the ground game as the Dolphins make their regular-season debut at the newly renamed and renovated Hard Rock Stadium.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Despite puzzling playcalling in the red zone, New York survived in an unexpectedly low-scoring game against New Orleans and can go up three games on the ‘Skins in the NFC East by taking care of business here. Victor Cruz made another clutch catch to set up the win, but all eyes here will be on Odell Beckham Jr. as he matches up with Josh Norman for the first time after last season’s memorable fight-filled duel when the corner was a member of the Panthers. Washington won last season’s final encounter 20-14 to snap a five-game losing streak at the hands of their division rival, but it has only beaten the Giants once at Met Life Stadium in the past eight meetings (2011).

Detroit at Green Bay: Although Aaron Rodgers’ two costly fourth-quarter turnovers prevented the Packers from a win at NFC North rival Minnesota on Sunday night, he’s clearly more comfortable with Jordy Nelson back as his security blanket. The Packers will make their regular-season debut at Lambeau against a Lions squad that saw all the momentum from their Week 1 win over the Colts dashed by a late collapse at home against the Titans. Detroit snapped a 24-game losing streak in Green Bay that dated back to 1991 with an 18-16 win last season, but is reeling after losing RB Ameer Abdullah for the season due to a foot injury. He was averaging nearly 7 yards per touch through the first two games.

Minnesota at Carolina: Franchise RB Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus on Sunday night and has opted for surgery, which means the Vikings will likely be without him the rest of the season. Sam Bradford connected with Stefon Diggs the way predecessor Teddy Bridgewater was starting to, helping balance out the offense, so they should be able to move the ball even without Peterson if that continues. Minnesota’s defense looks fierce enough to give Cam Newton fits in what looks like perhaps the top matchup in the entire league this week. Including the last two postseasons, the Panthers have won 14 consecutive home games.

San Francisco at Seattle: It's obvious that Russell Wilson is operating at less than 75 percent due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 1 and the offense has struggled immensely as a result, producing a single touchdown and 15 total points through the first two weeks. The 49ers have been able to put points on the board behind Blaine Gabbert, so this game could get very interesting if the Seahawks continue to sputter. Top receiver Doug Baldwin (knee) and starting RB Thomas Rawls (leg) are both dealing with pain, so even if they play, the Seahawks appear limited given Wilson’s issues and the struggles of their offensive line. San Francisco is 1-7 against the Seahawks over the past few years, last winning at home in Dec. 2013. The Niners haven’t won in Seattle since 2011, losing five straight by a combined margin of 140-53.

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay: The Rams have only scored nine points in two games, but arrive in Florida 1-1 after taking down the Seahawks. Case Keenum will look to lead the offense to their first touchdown against a Bucs defense that got carved up in Arizona, but any chance of another upset hinges on turning over Jameis Winston, who went from being Week 1’s highest-rated QB to one of Week 2’s worst. Top RB Doug Martin (hamstring) won’t play, which will thrust Charles Sims into a starting role, backed by Jacquizz Rodgers. One of these teams will be a surprising 2-1 and tied for the lead in their division after this is in the books.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Keystone State’s NFL reps square off in the final game before Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension, so Pittsburgh hopes to get to its bye week unbeaten by continuing to ride DeAngelo Williams, who topped 10,000 career yards and is making the most of increased opportunities. The Eagles will be playing on a short week after defeating Chicago on Monday night, so you can understand why the surprising Carson Wentz and his teammates are a home underdog despite the rookie’s unexpected success. Philadelphia is 47-28-3 against the Steelers, but have lost two of the last three meetings over the past 12 years, including the most recent one (16-14) in 2012. The last three games in the series have gone well under the posted total.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City: Neither of these teams are likely to win their division, but both veteran squads expect to make the playoffs. That makes this showdown pivotal as one we’ll likely look back upon as a potential tiebreaker in the AFC playoff race. The Chiefs are expected to get Jamaal Charles back from his knee injury for his 2016 debut, while Jets WR Brandon Marshall survived his own knee scare last Thursday night and is listed as ‘probable’ here. Eric Decker (shoulder) and Quincy Enunwa (ribs) should also play as they try and pick up where they left off in combining for 317 yards on 18 receptions in a Thursday night win over Buffalo.

San Diego at Indianapolis: The Chargers have lost key offensive players to torn ACLs in each of the first two weeks, watching RB Danny Woodhead suffer the same fate that befell WR Keenan Allen in the season opener. The 0-2 Colts have seen their secondary decimated by injuries and are struggling with keeping Andrew Luck clean and giving him time to throw. Indy opened last year with consecutive losses before Luck led a wild 35-33 comeback win in Tennessee to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2011. The Colts shuffled their offensive line in that game and got clutch catches from Philip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief, receivers being counted on to continue making progress this season. We’ll see if history repeats itself, though Moncrief may miss time with a shoulder injury and is ‘questionable’.

Chicago at Dallas: The Bears will be back in prime time, looking to prevent Dak Prescott and the Cowboys from a second straight win. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott has excelled in leading the Dallas ground game and keeping pressure off Tony Romo’s replacement, so all eyes will be on him to continue his strong start. Since the Monday night game featured so much attrition among the defense and also saw QB Jay Cutler (thumb) injured, the Bears are going to need an inspired effort from a depleted group to avoid an 0-3 start for the second straight year under John Fox.

Monday, Sept. 26

Atlanta at New Orleans: This NFC South clash means everything to the Saints. Either they pull off a victory that renews hope in the Crescent City and rejuvenates the belief that having Drew Brees under center is like having a chip and chair or despair sets in early. The alternative, very simply, would feature finger-pointing. New Orleans would come out of Monday night 0-3, winless in two home games and very unhappy since blame could be laid anywhere. Sean Payton’s defense let it down in the season-opening loss to Oakland, while his offense managed a single touchdown in New York last Sunday. The Falcons are on the road for a second consecutive week and swept both games in this situation last season, winning in Weeks 2 and 3 at New York and Dallas en route to a 5-0 start. New Orleans swept the 2015 meetings.

NFL Week 3

Cardinals (2-0) @ Bills (0-2) – Buffalo fired its OC after 37-31 loss LW; not sure how that helps; they had three extra days to rest after loss to Jets. Curious to see how the play calling changes, since players/owner met about play calling before OC was fired. Arizona covered its last eight road openers (6-2 SU); under is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers- they split first two home games, despite a +7 turnover margin. Redbirds are 8-2 as road favorites in Arians era; they’re 4-6 vs spread coming off a win. Arizona covered its last eight road openers. Bills won five of last six series ganes. Cardinals are 1-3 in Buffalo, with last visit in ’04, only win in 1971. Buffalo covered nine of its last 11 games as a home underdog.

Raiders (1-1) @ Titans (1-1) – LeBeau’s defense allowed only one TD on 18 drives in first two games; they rallied from down 15-3 in 4th quarter to even record at Detroit. Oakland has allowed 69 points in two games, giving up eight TDs on 21 drives. Raiders allowed 1,035 TY in two games, giving up six TDs, four FGs in 11 red zone drives. Tennessee won three of last four series games; five of last seven series games were decided by 5 or less points. Raiders are 2-5 in Tennessee; they beat Titans 24-21 (-1) LY, outgaining them 407-249, converting 8-15 on 3rd down. Oakland covered six of its last seven games as a road underdog. Tennessee is 9-15-1 in its last 25 games as a home favorite.

Browns (0-2) @ Dolphins (0-2) – Cleveland blew 20-0 first quarter lead LW, now start 3rd QB in three weeks (USC rookie Kessler). Dolphins drop way down in class here, after losing to Seattle/Patriots- over last decade, they’re 11-26 as home favorites. Miami won three of its last four home openers, are 4-7 vs spread in last 11, with last seven HOs going over total. Cleveland ran ball for 265 yards in first two games- they were outscored 39-3 in second half of the games. Browns won four of last six series games, splitting last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. Five of last six series totals were 33 or less. Miami was outscored 30-6 in first half of its games; all four of their TDs came in second half of games.

Ravens (2-0) @ Jaguars (0-2) – Baltimore rallied back from down 20-0 in Cleveland LW; they outscored first two opponents 26-0 in second half, are 10-8-1 vs spread in last 19 road games. Jacksonville is 11-21-1 vs spread in its last 33 home games; they allowed 65 points in losing first two games. Jax is 3-2 in last five series games, beating Ravens 22-20 (+5) LY, in a game where Baltimore outgained them 397-258 but was -3 in turnovers. Ravens are 2-6 in last eight visits here, losing last two 30-2/12-7. Since ’12, Baltimore is 12-14-3 in games with spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, Jaguars are 8-15. NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Lions (1-1) @ Packers (1-1) – Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opener, won it late, then blew 15-3 lead LW and lost at home to Titans. Lions snapped 21-game skid at Lambeau LY, then lost rematch on last play of game, on long Hail Mary pass- two games were decided by total of six points. Green Bay gained 294-263 TY in splitting first two road games- over last 7 years, Pack is 33-19-1 as a home favorite (9-5 in last 14 NFC North games)- they won eight of last nine home openers (6-2 last 8 at as favorite in HOs); four of their last five HOs went over total. Detroit is 6-11 as an underdog under Caldwell, 6-7 on road; last 8 years, they’re 6-10 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bengals (1-1)– Cincy is 12-6-2 vs spread in last 20 games as home faves; they won last six regular season games the week after playing rival Steelers. First road start for Denver QB Siemian; last 6 years, Broncos are 8-10 as road underdogs. Denver won five of last six series games, going 3-2 in last five visits to Queen City- they beat Bengals 20-17 (-3.5) in OT LY. Cincy is 9-3 in last 12 home openers, winning last four- they’re 6-3-1 as favorites in HOs. Denver won its last three road openers, is 6-3 in last nine. Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos’ last 14 road openers, 7-1 in Bengals’ last eight HOs. Bengals had only 103 yards on ground in first two games, 690 passing- they’re 7-27 on third down, need more balance.

Vikings (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1) – Minnesota is 15-2 vs spread in its last 17 regular season games; Vikes are 10-3 as road dogs under Zimmer. Bradford was 22-31/254 in his first Minny start, nine days after his trade from Philly. Vikings forced six turnovers (+5) in their first two games- they won field position by 9-12 yards. Minnesota is 7-5 in series with four of last five decided by 10+ points; they’re 1-2 here, with last visit in ’11. Since 2013, Carolina is 13-4-2 as a home favorite; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Panthers are 16-30 on 3rd down this year; they’ve outrushed opponents 333-213. One of Bradford’s many season-ending injuries happened here, when he played for the Rams.

Redskins (0-2) @ Giants (2-0) – Redskins’ QB Cousins is in contract year, on hot seat after 0-2 start; he threw awful end zone INT in huge spot vs Dallas LW. Washington lost its last three road openers by 18-11-11 points; they’re 8-14 as road underdog last three years, 7-9 under Grudne. Supposedly Josh Norman will shadow Odell Beckham all over the field. Big Blue won five of last six series games, including last four here, by 4-14-11-11 points. Giants are 9-8 as home favorites last 3+ years; they scored only 13 points in four visits to red zone vs Redskins LY. Big Blue outgained Saints by 129 yards LW but didn’t score offensive TD- their only TD was on blocked FG. Redskins threw 92 passes, ran ball 29 times in their first two games- not good.

Rams (1-1) @ Buccaneers (1-1) – Rams haven’t scored TD on 22 drives; they’re 6-27 on 3rd down- they did get 2+ first downs on each of last five drives LW to help win field position (+7 yards) as they held on to upset Seattle. Tampa Bay allowed 64 points, 637 PY in splitting pair of road games to start year. Bucs lost last three home openers; they scored 14.5 ppg in last four. Under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 HOs. LA is 7-12-1 in last 20 games as a road underdog, 2-6 in game following its last eight upset wins. TB was 1-6 as home favorite last two years; they’re 21-36-1 vs spread at home the last seven years. Rams won last four series games, winning 28-13/19-17 in last two visits here- they beat Bucs 31-23 in St Louis LY.

49ers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1) – Wilson’s ankle is an issue for Seahawks, who scored one TD on 22 drives in first two games- they lost field position by 7-10 yards. Seattle is 7-1 in last eight series games, including last four by combined 84-26; 49ers lost last five visits here, with four of five by 10+ points. Seahawks ran ball for 431 yards in two wins over Niners LY. SF has six takeaways (+2) in first two games this year. Seattle is 15-6 in its last 21 games as an NFC West home favorite; 49ers are 1-7 as an NFC West road dog- they’re 3-9 in last 12 games as a road dog overall. Hawks are 25-14 in last 39 games as a home favorite overall. NFL-wide, favorites in divisional games are 3-8 this season, 3-4 at home.

Jets (1-1) @ Chiefs (1-1) – Three extra days of rest for Jets after Thursday win in Buffalo; Gang Green is 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games. Jets are 4-0-1 vs spread as underdogs in Bowles era (2-0 this year). Chiefs kicked four FGs in loss at Houston LW with no TDs, after rallying back from down 24-3 to win opener- they’ve been outscored 34-6 in first half of games. Last 8+ years, KC is 13-24 as a home favorite, 10-13 under Reid. Home team won last five series games; Jets lost 27-7/24-10 in last two visits here- their last win in Arrowhead was in 1998. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-8 vs spread this year. Under is 15-10 in games at Arrowhead since Reid has been Chiefs’ coach.

Chargers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2) – Chargers outscored first two opponents 42-3 in first half of games. San Diego pounded Jags LW, after blowing 24-3 lead in Arrowhead in opener. Bolts are 17-6-1 as road underdogs under McCoy, 7-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. San Diego DC John Pagano visits his brother Chuck, Indy’s HC.Colts are 2-5 in last seven games as home favorite; they allowed 73 points in losing first two tilts, running for only 165 yards. Colts are 9-10-1 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Chargers won six of last seven series games, winning last three over Colts by 6-22-10 points- they’ve won last three visits to Indiana, but last one was six years ago.

Steelers (2-0) @ Eagles (2-0) – Philly hasn’t turned ball over yet, won field position in first two games by 17-12 yards, as rookie QB Wentz plays like a vet. Eagle defense also KO’d #1 QB for both opponents. Since 2010, Iggles are 0-8 vs spread as a home underdog. Over last 8+ years, Steelers are 12-20-1 as road favorites- they’re 16-31 on 3rd down this year, have allowed only two TDs in winning first two games by 22-8 points. Teams split last six series games; Pitt lost last eight visits here, with last visit in ’08, last win at Franklin Field in 1965. Under is 10-6 in Steelers’ last sixteen road games Over last 8+ years, favorites are 26-14 vs spread in Eagles’ non-divisional home games.

Bears (0-2) @ Cowboys (1-1) – Not only is Chicago off to dismal 0-2 start, QB Cutler hurt his right (passing) thumb Monday, isn’t expected to play here, leaving Hoyer (15-11 in 26 career starts) as starting QB, with Matt Barkley likely backup. Road team won three of last four series games; Chicago won 27-20/34-18 in last two visits here. Only second half points Bears have scored came on punt return when issue had been decided. Chicago is 5-3-1 as a road dog under Fox; they’re 7-3 in last 10 as non-divisional road dog. Dallas split first two games, which were decided by total of 5 points; over last six years, Cowboys are 8-27 as a home favorite, 5-16 in non-divisional games.

Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (0-2) – New Orleans is 15-5 in last 20 games of this rivalry; they beat Falcons 31-21/20-17 LY. Atlanta lost four of its last five visits here. Saints lost first couple games by total of 4 points- they didn’t allow offensive TD LW, after giving up 35 points to Oakland in home opener. NO is 4-10-1 in last 15 games as a home favorite. Falcons scored 59 points in splitting first two games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as a road dog- they have allowed eight TDs in first two games, four on plays of 23+ yards. Saints are 7-10-3 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 12-2 vs spread in Atlanta’s last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points.

NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Week 3
By Monty Andrews
Covers.com

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 43)

Vikings’ pass reliance vs. Panthers’ struggling safeties

Two significant developments have turned the Minnesota offense completely upside-down. The loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating leg injury prompted the Vikings to cough up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And who knows how the team will react after learning that running back Adrian Peterson is out for what could be several months with a torn meniscus.

The result should be a much more balanced passing attack than the one the Vikings used last season, when they threw on just over 51 percent of their offensive plays. They're already up to 57.6 percent through two games this season, and passed on 61.4 percent of their plays in Bradford's first game in a Vikings uniform last week. Look for that number to hold or even rise now that Peterson is on the shelf for a while.

They'll have their hands full in Carolina this weekend, but the Panthers' secondary hasn't been the same since saying goodbye to Josh Norman in the offseason. While the cornerbacks have been decent - particularly right-side specialist Bene Benwikere - the safety tandem of Kurt Coleman (41.9) and Tre Boston (54.9) have both posted failing grades to date, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for Bradford and his receiving corps to take advantage.

Daily fantasy watch: Stefon Diggs

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48)

Lions' banged-up backfield vs. Packers' stifling run defense

The Vikings aren’t the only team dealing with running back issues. Division rival Detroit will be looking at a contingency plan for at least the next eight weeks after losing primary rusher Ameer Abdullah to a foot injury. And judging by how well the Packers have defended the run this season, don't expect Detroit to make any inroads on the ground this weekend.

Green Bay has limited opponents to just 78 yards on 48 carries through two games - an absurd 1.6 YPC average that is far and away the lowest in football. They've held foes to a long run of 12 yards while allowing only one touchdown. Tackles Mike Daniels (82.4) and Julius Peppers (78.3) have been outstanding, while defensive end Nick Perry (84.3) has been one of the best at his position. Clay Matthews (37.4) has struggled, but he should get much better.

The Lions' offensive line has impressed early on, but that won't matter with a backfield consisting of two players, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, who have just one game of 10-plus carries on their combined resume. Riddick isn't a good between-the-tackles runner, and Washington is simply too raw to be counted on for big things. Look for the Packers to obliterate the Lions' ground game, forcing Matthew Stafford to air it out early and often.

Daily fantasy watch: Marvin Jones

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47.5)

Ravens' impressive O-line vs. Jaguars' not-so-improved D

Much of the focus in this one will be on the quarterbacks, with Ravens veteran Joe Flacco and his pass-heavy attack taking on Jaguars counterpart Blake Bortles and his high-octane offense. But when it comes to which signal caller will fare better, the line play appears to be slanted heavily in favor of visiting Baltimore. And that could very well decide things in a matchup that oddsmakers believe will be a tight one.

The Ravens' offensive line has been solid this season, led once again by elite right guard Marshal Yanda (87.6), who is actually grading slightly lower than he has the past two seasons. Tackles Ronnie Stanley (77.0) and Ricky Wagner (81.0) have also held their own, helping limit Flacco to four sacks over the first two games. The line is by no means perfect, but it has been good enough to help propel the team to a 2-0 start.

By comparison, the Jaguars' defensive front has been a disaster through two games, allowing a combined 65 points to the Packers and San Diego Chargers. Three of the team's four starters at guard or tackle are scoring lower than 49 on PFF, and even defensive tackle Malik Jackson (77.8 ) has seen his effectiveness wane compared to his previous two seasons. Look for Flacco to have a clean pocket, and for the Baltimore running backs to chew up good chunks of yardage.

Daily fantasy watch: Justin Forsett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5)

49ers' aversion to penalties vs. Seahawks' flag fiesta

The 49ers are looking to bounce back from last week's 46-27 thumping at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, and they'll be in tough despite Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson still working his way back to 100 percent from a high ankle sprain. But San Francisco has been one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL through two weeks, and that philosophy could lead to strong field position against a Seattle team that needs some work on its discipline.

Despite participating in a league-high 308 plays, the 49ers have had just eight accepted penalties (tied for 30th in the NFL) for 60 accepted yards (31st). Add in the one declined penalty they've incurred, and their nine total penalties ranks last in the league. The list includes three offensive holding calls (one declined), one face mask flag, two illegal contacts and just one false start. Through two games, San Francisco hasn't had a single pass interference call on either side of the ball.

By comparison, Seattle has incurred 18 penalties (fifth-most) for 183 accepted yards (third-most). The Seahawks were whistled for a whopping 10 penalties totaling 114 yards in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, with Kam Chancellor picking up a pass interference and face mask call and Jermaine Kearse nailed for a pair of offensive pass interference flags. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who ranked seventh in penalties in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, fourth in 2012, second in 2011. A similar lack of discipline Sunday could mean big field position gains for the 49ers, which might translate to points.

Daily fantasy watch: Torrey Smith

Pick Six - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Broncos at Bengals (-3, 41)

Denver
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The post-Peyton Manning era in Denver hasn’t been a disappointment, as the Broncos have picked up home victories over the Panthers and Colts. Denver’s defense stepped up with a pair of second-half defensive touchdowns in a 34-20 triumph over Indianapolis last week as six-point favorites. Last season, the Broncos covered in all six opportunities as an underdog, while cashing in Week 1’s comeback win against Carolina as a slight ‘dog. Denver held off Cincinnati at home last December, 20-17, but failed to cash as 3 ½-point favorites.

Cincinnati
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Bengals play their home opener on Sunday after dropping a 24-16 decision to the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season, the Steelers. Cincinnati has been outgained on the ground in both games, while picking up only 46 rushing yards on 18 carries against Pittsburgh. The Bengals own an 11-4-1 record in their past 16 regular season home contests with three of those losses coming to division foes. Cincinnati has won and covered five consecutive September home games since 2013, including three victories by double-digits.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -3

Redskins at Giants (-4½, 46½)

Washington
Record: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

The Redskins captured the NFC East championship last season at 9-7, but Washington has stumbled to an 0-2 start following home losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas. The Cowboys and Redskins went back and forth before Dallas scored a touchdown with five minutes left to grab a 27-23 victory at FedEx Field. Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards in the defeat for Washington, but the ‘Skins fell to 1-4 in their last five home contests. Washington wrapped up the 2015 season with three consecutive road victories, all in the underdog role. However, the Redskins have lost four straight meetings at Met Life Stadium, including three in a row by double-digits at New York.

New York
Record: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Giants have squeezed by in both of their victories over the Cowboys and Saints, winning the two games by a combined four points. New York’s offense failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 16-13 triumph over New Orleans, as the Giants relied on its special teams for three field goals and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. New York’s defense has given up only two touchdowns through two games resulting in a pair of UNDERS, as the Giants closed out last season with four consecutive OVERS. However, New York has gone OVER the total in five of the previous six home divisional contests since 2014.

Best Bet: Washington +4½

Lions at Packers (-7½, 48)

Detroit
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

The Lions melted down late in last Sunday’s 16-15 home setback to the Titans, blowing a 15-3 fourth quarter lead. Detroit cashed as an underdog in Week 1 at Indianapolis, but couldn’t take home the money as six-point favorites against Tennessee, dropping to 2-7 the last nine years in Week 2. The Lions snapped a 23-game losing streak at Green Bay in last season’s 18-16 triumph as 10-point underdogs, while losing the second matchup with the Packers on Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary touchdown in the final seconds at Ford Field, 27-23.

Green Bay
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Packers held off the Jaguars in Week 1, but were tripped up by the Vikings in Week 2 in a 17-14 defeat as short favorites. Green Bay’s offense was held to 263 yards in last Sunday’s loss, as the Packers have yet to bust the 300-yard mark in two games. Under Mike McCarthy, Green Bay owns an 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS record in home openers, while scoring at least 27 points in five of their last six openers at Lambeau Field. In 2014, the Packers won and covered all three home divisional games, winning by an average of nearly four touchdowns. Last season, Green Bay lost all three NFC North contests at home, while scoring 16 points or fewer in all three defeats.

Best Bet: Detroit +7½

Vikings at Panthers (-7, 43)

Minnesota
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Vikings lost their starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in training camp to a season-ending knee injury. It got worse for Minnesota when star running back Adrian Peterson suffered a knee injury that will sideline the former rushing champion for a majority, if not the rest of the season. The Vikings found a way to knock off the Packers, 17-14 as short home underdogs, as Sam Bradford performed well in his Minnesota debut by throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Minnesota owns an 11-3 ATS record as a road underdog under Mike Zimmer, but two of those losses came as a ‘dog of a touchdown or higher.

Carolina
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Panthers rebounded from their late meltdown in a Week 1 defeat at Denver as Carolina blasted San Francisco, 46-27 as 12-point home favorites in Week 2. Cam Newton torched the 49ers for 353 yards and four touchdowns as Carolina extended its winning streak at Bank of America Stadium to 14 games. The Panthers have covered nine of their past 11 home contests, including a 3-1 ATS mark in this stretch as a favorite of seven points or more. Carolina is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2011, while the Panthers look to avenge a 31-13 road drubbing to the Vikings in 2014.

Best Bet: Carolina -7

Steelers (-3½, 46) at Eagles

Pittsburgh
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

Both Keystone State teams have jumped out to 2-0 starts, as the Steelers has held their first two opponents to a total of two touchdowns. Pittsburgh dominated Washington in the opener, followed by a 24-16 home triumph over Cincinnati to improve to 2-0 for the first time since 2010. The Steelers have owned the NFC recently by winning six of the past seven interconference games since 2013, including three consecutive victories in the favorite role. Dating back to the start of 2015, Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in nine of 11 road games, while allowing 20 points or less in four straight as an away favorite.

Philadelphia
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Eagles are more of a 2-0 surprise than their Pennsylvania counterparts, as rookie Carson Wentz has led Philadelphia to victories over Cleveland and Chicago. Granted, both the Browns and Bears have combined to start 0-4, but Wentz has yet to throw an interception, while the Eagles’ defense has allowed 24 points. With the departure of Chip Kelly and hiring of Doug Pederson, Philadelphia isn’t playing uptempo football this season after closing out last season on a 7-2 run to the OVER. The Eagles have limped to a 4-7 record in the past 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field, as two of those wins are over Cleveland and Buffalo.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3½

Jets at Chiefs (-3, 43)

New York
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Jets’ offense was flying high in last Thursday 37-31 victory at Buffalo, racking up nearly 500 yards of offense, including 374 yards through the air from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte continued to run the ball well in his second game with the Jets, finding the end zone three times, while both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall eclipsed the 100-yard mark receiving. The Jets own a 2-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog under Todd Bowles, while New York hasn’t won consecutive away games since 2010.

Kansas City
Record: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Chiefs overcame a 21-point deficit in their Week 1 overtime triumph over the Chargers, but Kansas City failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 19-12 setback at Houston. That loss snapped an 11-game regular season winning streak for Kansas City, but the Chiefs will carry a six-game hot streak at Arrowhead Stadium going into Sunday. The Chiefs have failed to cover four consecutive home games since last December, but in all four of those contests, Kansas City was listed as a 6½-point favorite or higher.

Best Bet: Kansas City -3

NFL: Streak, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Washington at New York

There are bad spots and there are really bad spots like the one Washington Redskins find themselves in Sunday afternoon when they visit MetLife Stadium to take on G-Men.

It's always a challenge winning on the road in the NFL and an even bigger hurdle winning in a division rivals back yard. When it comes to Washington - 'Proof is in the Pudding'. The Redskins have had a bumpy road lately going 5-19 SU in their last 24 road games with a money-burning 8-16 record against the betting line. Adding to the problem, Redskins have faltered as visitor in this divisional rivalry going 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS last eight on Giants home field, 3-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS last fifteen trips into New York.

Not that you don't have ample reason to bet against the Redskins. But, last week's loss for Washington does not bode well for the team's chances as the team is 1-4 ATS against the betting line off loss the previous effort facing a division opponent off win including 0-3 ATS in a hostile setting. Expect Giants to continue their dominance over Redskins while improving the current 5-2 ATS mark hosting a division rival.

Detroit at Green Bay

Lions pulled off a WK-10 win at Green Bay last year. What are the chances they'll have a repeat performance ?? Slim to none. Winning at Lambeau Filed has been an obstacle for Lions. In the last 24 trips into Green Bay the result has been 1 Win, 24 Losses (6-17-1 ATS).

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay

We do know Rams have won/cashed four straight in the series. But, this could be a good spot for Bucs. The Rams have a habit of faltering against the number in WK3 (1-8 ATS), have a money-burning 5-10-1 ATS record after playing Seahawks, 1-4 ATS skid after beating Seattle.

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Week 2 Recap

Another solid back-and-forth week in the totals market as bettors watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 with the lone push coming on Monday and that outcome between the Eagles and Bears was helped with 27 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes.

Second-half scoring surges were a common theme last weekend and bettors playing the ‘under’ in a few late games caught some tough breaks in the below games.

Colts-Broncos: 35 points in second-half, two defensive scores by Denver in fourth
Falcons-Raiders: 39 second-half points
Jaguars-Chargers: 31 points with Jacksonville adding meaningless score with 1:03 remaining

Through two weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 16-15-1 through 32 games.

Quick Observations

It’s rare to see totals listed below 40 points in the NFL these days but the first one of the season saw the ‘under’ (38) connect easily as the Rams beat the Seahawks 9-3.

After seeing the two highest totals go ‘over’ in Week 1, bettors watched the highest numbers in Week 2 go ‘under’ the number. (Saints-Giants 54, Buccaneers-Cardinals 49).

Five teams (Buccaneers, Redskins, Jaguars, Raiders, Colts) in the NFL are allowing 30-plus points per game through two weeks and four of them are allowing 395 total yards of defense. The one outlier is Jacksonville (325 YPG) and it’s actually outgained its first two opponents but turnovers (4/1) have been killers.

The Chargers are averaging 21 points in the first half this season, which is the best in the league. The Raiders lead the league with 23 PPG in the second-half. For those interested, Cleveland has only scored three points in the second-half this season and Baltimore hasn’t allowed a point in the final 30 minutes of each of their first two games.

Cody Kessler will be the fourth rookie quarterback to start a game this season when he suits up for Cleveland against Miami. Bettors could be hesitant to back the young guns but Carson Wentz (29 PPG) and Dak Prescott (23 PPG) have been decent and the Patriots just scored 27 on Thursday with Jacoby Brissett under center.

Non-Conference Action

Through two weeks of the season, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 in 12 non-conference games and this week’s card has two matchups on tap. I dug up some numbers on this week’s games and there are some strong scoring tendencies for both visitors.

Arizona at Buffalo: This will be the first road game of the season for the Cardinals and bettors saw the club go 6-3 to the high side last season when away. Digging deeper into Arizona, we found out that the team is averaging 26.4 PPG on the road in non-divisional games since head coach Bruce Arians took over. The Buffalo defense (400 YPG) hasn’t looked sharp this season and followers of this column are aware that this matchup fits the “Thursday Night Total” system since the Bills played the midweek game in Week 2. The Bills offense will have a new coordinator in Anthony Lynn running the show this Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Steelers have seen the ‘over’ go 11-3 in their last 14 games versus the NFC and they’re averaging 29.7 PPG during this span, which includes their 38-16 win at Washington in Week 1. The Eagles defense (286 YPG, 12 PPG) has started off very strong but facing Big Ben is a huge step up in class from RG3 and Jay Cutler.

Divisional Battles

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Tale of two different tapes for this matchup with the Redskins 2-0 to the ‘over’ while the Giants have seen the ‘under’ connect in their first two games. New York’s defense (16 PPG, 308 YPG) has looked much better early in the season while Washington’s unit (408.5 YPG, 32.5 PPG) continues to look suspect. QB Kirk Cousins has struggled in his career (1-3) versus the Giants with 8 interceptions (3 TDs) and this appears to be a better New York defense. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Detroit at Green Bay: Three of the last six meetings in this series have seen exactly 50 points scored, while the pair combined for 31, 26 and 34 points in the other three contests. Those outcomes have produced a 3-3 total mark during this span. You might be surprised but Detroit’s offense (411.5 YPG) is much better than Green Bay (287 YPG) thus far and even though the Lions put up 15 points last week, three touchdowns were called back on penalties.

San Francisco at Seattle: This is the lowest total (40 ½) on the board and it could be hard making a case for the ‘over’ based on what we’ve seen from Seattle. The Seahawks defense (9.5 PPG) is miles ahead of their offense (7.5 PPG) and the health of QB Russell Wilson remains a concern behind an average offensive line. Surprisingly, the 49ers are averaging 27.5 PPG after two games but that number was helped with plenty of short tracks due to turnovers. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and San Francisco has scored a total of 26 points in the last four encounters.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s easy ‘under’ winner between the Patriots and Texans, I’m guessing the bookmakers are happy with the primetime results this season. We’ve seen one unexpected shootout, a few low-scoring affairs and some great middle opportunities for savvy players. Headed into this weekend, the ‘under’ holds a slight 4-3-1 edge.

Chicago at Dallas: Very tough total to handicap here due to the quarterback situation for both teams but the early money has pushed the odds from 45½ to 44. Brian Hoyer will get the start at QB for Chicago and while he’s not special, he’s capable. In 10 starts for the Texans last season, the team scored 20-plus in seven of those games. Dallas QB Dak Prescott hasn’t looked like a rookie but he’s been held back with the club trying to establish the run (60 carries) the first two weeks. Defensively, Chicago is better than advertised while the Cowboys “bend but don’t break” plan has worked, so far. These teams have played three times since 2012 and the ‘over’ has connected easily with combined scores of 52, 73 and 69 points posted.

Atlanta at New Orleans: These “indoor” teams always seem to warrant a high total when they get together based on public perception but bettors should be aware that the ‘under’ is on a 6-3-1 run in this series. Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ cash in its first two games behind an offense (451 YPG) that is clicking on all cylinders and it will be facing a New Orleans defense (452 YPG) that has looked atrocious. The Saints offense has always played better at home and the Falcons defense has surrendered 59 points in their first two games.

Fearless Predictions

Fair to say we never had a shot on either of my first two plays but the team total connected easily and the teaser was never in doubt. Despite dropping 10 cents ($10), the bankroll ($190) is still in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Philadelphia 46½

Best Under: Minnesota-Carolina 42½

Best Team Total: Over 26 Indianapolis

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Minnesota-Carolina Under 51½
Arizona-BuffaloOver 38
Atlanta-New Orleans Over 44½