NFL: Streaks, Trends, Notes
Sportspic.com
New York at Detroit
In preseason wagering it's always best to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches simply don't give a damn other than concentrate on evaluating personnel before the real season begins. Which brings us to our NFLx pick between Jets and Lions. Now both coaches in this contest are in the hot seat after a dismal 2012 season with Jets finishing 6-10 while Lions ended 4-12. Both coaches should be out to get things off from the 'Get-Go' but were putting more faith in Lions Jim Schwartz as he owns a sparkling 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS mark in August games while Rex's troops failed to cover in any of the four preseason games last year and his squad has an 0-4 SU/ATS skid in warm-up openers.
Miami at Jacksonville
The Dolphins off a short week and sloppy loss to Dallas in the HOF game things may not improve much in Jacksonville. Everything is new in Jaguar country, new general manager, new head coach, new logo and new uniforms. Jags trying to establish a winning culture will be primed for this opener in front of the home crowd. Jags coach Gus Bradley a former defensive coordinator in Seattle expect the defensive troops to shine keeping Fish in check. Stick with the Big Cats as they move to 10-3-1 ATS in preseason holding opponents to 20 or less points while Philbin's troops run of futility in August falls to 0-6 SU/ATS.
Arizona at Green Bay: Preview & Pick
By Bovada.lv
Tonight’s game will mark the official head coaching debut of the Cardinals’ Bruce Arians, who got the job primarily based on his outstanding work in an interim role getting the Indianapolis Colts to the postseason last year.
According to the betting line at Bovada, the Packers are -3 home favorites with a total of 34.5. The two teams will be meeting during the preseason for the third time since 2009. In those games, favored Green Bay covered both contests, with both also going Over the number.
Sports handicappers have long since been aware of how prolific the Packer offense tends to be during the preseason, with Mike McCarthy’s squad compiling an outstanding 8-2 mark in favor of the Over since 2008. In addition, the team has gone Over in four of its last five exhibition openers.
The Cardinals, whose defense collapsed down the stretch last year, leading to the exit of former head coach Ken Whisenhunt, brought in Arians to improve the offense. He now has at his disposal veteran signal caller Carson Palmer.
Arizona already had a knack for putting points on the board during the preseason, with four of its last five openers going Over the betting line. In addition, the team has a 4-2 mark in favor of the Over since 2008 during the first two weeks of the preseason.
As previously mentioned, the Packers have had success scoring in these practice matchups. That’s one reason the totals have steadily risen for the team’s games, from averaging a 36 total in 2008 to 40 last year.
Tonight’s total plays into some more Over-friendly data pertaining to Green Bay. For example, over the past five years, when the total is between 34 and 39.5, the Over is 10-3. Also, the Over has been the call in each of the last four games in which a Packers’ preseason game has had a total under 36, and when the team’s opponent has been a NFC rival.
The lone danger in this play is how quickly players such as Aaron Rodgers are yanked out of the game. The Packers have already lost a member of the team’s offensive line, so they may be gun-shy about keeping starters in for too long. Still, past history and the presence of some offensive weapons for the Cardinals allows us to choose as one of our NFL Free Picks
Play Green Bay-Arizona Over 34.5
Friday Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The underdogs took home the money in four of six preseason games last night, improving to 5-2 ATS since Sunday's Hall of Fame game. The Ravens, Redskins, and Bengals all won outright in the road 'dog role, while the 'over' hit in five of the six games on Thursday.
Dolphins (-1½, 35½) at Jaguars
2012 Preseason Records: MIA (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), JAX (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Dolphins beat Jaguars, 27-26 in 2010
QB Rotations: MIA - Tannehill, Moore, Devlin
JAX - Gabbert, Henne, Kafka
Handicapper Analysis: ASA - Miami already has a game under their belt which should be an advantage here. The Fins lost in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday to Dallas, 24-20. However, Miami dominated the stats with seven more first downs and 421 total yards to just 266 for the Cowboys. The Fish averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding Dallas to only 4.6 yards per play. The score was obviously deceiving as the Cowboys first two TD’s came on a 9-yard drive after a Ryan Tannehill fumble and on a 75-yard interception return.
Jets at Lions (-3½, 36½)
2012 Preseason Records: NYJ (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), DET (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Jets beat Lions, 10-3 in 2005
QB Rotations: NYJ - Sanchez, G. Smith, Simms, McElroy
DET - Stafford, Hill, Moore, Lewis
Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - Detroit's Jim Schwartz has become one of the more predictable forces in preseason since taking over the Lions, going 12-4 straight up and 11-4 vs. the spread. New York has usually been a slow starter under Rex Ryan, going 0-4 in Week One of exhibition play, and this year's team has its third offensive coordinator in three years.
Patriots at Eagles (-4½, 41)
2012 Preseason Records: NE (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS), PHI (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Eagles beat Patriots, 27-17 in 2012
QB Rotations: NE: Brady, Mallett, Tebow
PHI - Vick, Foles, Barkley, Dixon
Handicapper Analysis: Antony Dinero - Talk of Tom Brady destroying the Eagles secondary has come out of Philly, where the Patriots have served as scrimmage partner since Tuesday. Considering both Michael Vick and Nick Foles are out to impress, not to mention the pace Chip Kelly and Bill Belichick are trying to instill, this game should be high-scoring.
Cardinals at Packers (-3, 34½)
2012 Preseason Records: ARZ (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS), GB (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Packers beat Cardinals, 28-20 in 2011
QB Rotations: ARZ - Palmer, Stanton, Lindley
GB: Rodgers, Harrell, Coleman
Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Yes, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but I do not expect to see much of him in this game, especially since their left tackle went down last Saturday and Green Bay just cannot afford any more injuries. The Packers have terrible back-ups that do not fit Mike McCarthy’s style of throwing the ball down the field. This team is so desperate for a quality back-up that they just signed Vince Young, a player that has not seen action since 2011.
Bears at Panthers (-2½, 34)
2012 Preseason Records: CHI (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), CAR (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Panthers beat Bears, 30-12 in 1996
QB Rotations: CHI - Cutler, J. McCown, Blanchard
CAR - Newton, Anderson, Clausen, Cameron
Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - New coaches in their first NFL preseason game are 5-14 SU and 2-17 ATS since 2000 if their team won three or more preseason games last year, including 0-8 SUATS if they open the preseason on the road. That's the case for new Bears head coach Marc Trestman and the Bears tonight.
Chiefs at Saints (-3, 36½)
2012 Preseason Records: KC (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), NOR (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Saints beat Chiefs, 30-7 in 2007
QB Rotations: KC: A. Smith, Daniel, Bray, Stanzi
NOR: Brees, Wallace, L. McCown, Griffin
Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - The Chiefs have been the worst preforming team in the preseason year after year - in the past 6 preseasons the Chiefs are an amazing 4-21 against the spread. However, let's not forget that when Andy Reid was with the Eagles, he hated this opening preseason game and put no effort into winning this game - the records don't lie as Reid in his last 8 preseason openers went a money making 1-7 if you faded the Eagles.
Texans at Vikings (PK, 35)
2012 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), MIN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Texans beat Vikings, 28-24 in 2012
QB Rotations: HOU: Schaub, Yates, Keenum, McGee
MIN: Ponder, Cassell, Bethel-Thompson
Handicapper Analysis: Pat Hawkins - The Texans have come out firing in the past two season when playing early preseason games as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their two open games in the last two preseasons. On the other hand, the Vikings have not out too much stock in the practice games under Leslie Frazier as he has gone 0-2 in opening practice games.
Cowboys (-1½, 35) at Raiders
2012 Preseason Records: DAL (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), OAK (1-3, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Cowboys beat Raiders, 3-0 in 2012
QB Rotations: DAL: Romo, Orton, Stephens
OAK: Flynn, Pryor, T. Wilson, McGloin
Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - Historically, favorites that won the Hall of Fame game are usually a good fade the next week, as the Cowboys are in that position tonight, especially as road 'chalk.' Dallas cashed as short away 'dogs last season at Oakland, 3-0, but with the roles reserved, the Raiders look to be the play.
What Bettors Need to Know: Friday's NFL Preseason Action
Covers.com
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-3.5, 36)
The quarterback battle between Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith has been a hot topic at Jets camp, but we finally get a sampling tonight. Sanchez will get the start and play a couple of series at most and Geno should get the chance to play a series with the starting unit.
New RB Reggie Bush gets unleashed tonight and has reportedly looked great in camp. Bush gives Detroit a weapon on screen passes out of the backfield and the coaching staff has lined him up at WR in red zone plays as well.
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 42)
The two squads have held multiple joint practices together leading up to Friday's game. Brady will get a few snaps tonight and attempt to get acclimated with his new corps of targets to throw to.
Michael Vick will reportedly get the start for the Eagles, but he is locked in a QB battle with Nick Foles. Also look for rookie QB Matt Barkley to be featured prominently in the second and third quarters.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5, 35.5)
The Dolphins will certainly look to play better this time around than they did against the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game. The Dolphins lost 24-20 and failed to cover as 3-point faves in the annual game last Sunday. Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline should be ready to play tonight, so the passing game should look much better.
Maurice Jones-Drew will not play tonight so starting running back duties will go to Jordan Todman. The second year RB out of UConn had three carries for eight yards in 2012.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 34)
The Bears got some bad news earlier this week when they learned that CB Kelvin Hayden will miss the entire season after tearing his left hamstring. Friday's game will give us the first glance of the relationship between quarterback Jay Cutler and head coach Marc Trestman.
Cam Newton and most of the Panthers' starters will see limited action tonight. Newton is expected to get 10-to-15 snaps before Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen take over quarterbacking duties.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-3, 37)
The new-look Chiefs get a test run tonight with head coach Andy Reid, QB Alex Smith and TE Anthony Fasano, among others, being watched closely. But perhaps even to be watched more closely will be the debut performance of the No. 1 pick in the 2013 draft, RT Eric Fisher.
Sean Payton makes his return to coaching duties after serving his one year suspension. The Saints were 2-2 SU and ATS and 3-1 O/U in the 2011 preseason with Payton at the helm.
Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 35.5)
The two squads played in Houston in Week 16 last season, with the Vikings winning 23-6 and covering as 7.5-point road dogs. Houston is carrying a lot of injuries on defense and will feature a ton of inexperience in the game versus Minny. As a result, their already porous special teams could suffer.
Christian Ponder and the Vikings offense started camp in poor form but started to play with some zest toward the end of the first week of training camp. Ponder and new target Greg Jennings started to click and will look for that relationship to grow throughout the exhibition schedule, starting tonight.
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-2, 35)
The Cardinals preseason opener should be used as a litmus test to see how new quarterback Carson Palmer gels with Larry Fitzgerald and the rest of the receiving corps. 'Zona QBs posted a passer rating of 39.8 on passes thrown to Fitzgerald last season.
QB Aaron Rodgers played the entire first quarter in last year's preseason opener, but that probably won't be the case tonight. The injury to LT Bryan Bulaga was a devastating hit to an offensive line that allowed Rodgers to be sacked 55 times a year ago (including playoffs). Reports claim that rookie David Bakhtiari will be utilized in the starting role either at the open LT or at RT spots.
Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (+1.5, 35.5)
The Cowboys got their preseason off to a great start by winning the Hall of Fame game 24-20 over the Dolphins and covering as 3-point dogs. Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo did not play versus Miami, but will feature prominently against Oakland tonight.
Raiders starters are reportedly scheduled to play the entire first quarter, though RB Darren McFadden could potentially play a bit less. Also, all four Raider QBs will see action with Matt Flynn starting followed by Terrelle Pryor, Matt McGloin and, finally, Tyler Wilson.