Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 10/18/18
Georgia State Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Preview and Predictions in NCAAF
Both the Georgia State Panthers and Arkansas State Red Wolves are coming off defeats, although ASU's loss was probably a little more embarrassing. Well, since these teams are still harboring bowl hopes, there is definitely some meaning attached to their meeting on Thursday night, which comes before a national television audience at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, AR.
And obviously, since the Sun Belt Conference season has just gotten started, neither of these clubs are out of contention yet. Remember that the Sun Belt will have a championship game for the first time this year.
Georgia State's football legacy is not as rich as that is of Arkansas State, which has experienced seven winning seasons in a row. But the Red Wolves have had some problems covering numbers lately, which needs to be taken into consideration.
Trending Previews
TV: ESPNU, 7:30 PM ET. LINE: Arkansas State -14
ABOUT GEORGIA STATE: Their last game, two weeks ago, also took place an ESPNU, as they visited Troy, and Georgia State barely missed the "back door" in a 37-20 defeat, although a late touchdown pushed it over the total. The Panthers (2-4 SU and ATS) have had some difficulty hanging tough against better teams, but put everything together a couple of games ago, beating Louisiana-Monrovia 46-14, in a game where they have the ball for 38 minutes. Dan Ellington, who is a first-year starter, is making progress, as he's completing 63% of his passes and averaging 249 yards a game. He is also the team's leading rusher, with 270 yards, which may be a commentary on the running back situation. Brandon Wright is second best in the nation in average punting length, and Georgia State is third-best in punt return defense. By far, however, the guy most opponents have to keep an eye on his Penny Hart, the explosive wide receiver who is the active FBS leader in yards per game (with 81.7 for his career). Hart has caught 30 passes this season and led the Sun Belt Conference last year with 74 catches for 1121 yards. In that game against ULM, he also registered the first punt return for a touchdown in the program's history.
ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE: This team obviously harbored higher expectations it to go very quietly in a 35-9 defeat at home against Appalachian State last Tuesday. Of course, when you have made bowl appearances in seven straight seasons as they have, you are thinking that you should be able to compete for the Sun Belt title every year. So this has to be a big disappointment for Arkansas State (3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS), which lost for the first time in their last nine mid-week (Tuesday-Thursday) games and was celebrating the 1000th game in their program's history. The 28-21 loss to Georgia Southern still stings as well, because that was a conference game in which they yielded only ONE pass completion. Previous to that, they had chalked up non-conference victories over Tulsa and UNLV. But receiver Kirk Merritt has experienced some success over his last couple of games, catching 20 passes. And quarterback Justice Hansen leads all Sun Belt passers in yards per game (256.3). The Red Wolves are not getting the penetration they did last year from their defensive line, at least not yet. In 2017 they were sixth in the nation in Tackles or Loss per game, and the year before that they were #1. This year they are just 24th, and they have also regressed from sixth to 19th to now 46th in the nation in Sacks per Game. They have been vulnerable against the run, giving up 5.7 yards per carry, although they yielded fewer passing yards than any other team in the conference.
EXTRA POINTS
1. One of the "matchups" to keep an eye on involves Georgia State's Penny Hart against Arkansas State's punt coverage team, which is best in the nation, having allowed minus-14 yards.
2. It has been 123 games since Arkansas State was last shutout.
3. Arkansas State has burned money for its backers, covering just two games out of the last eleven.
PREDICTION: Arkansas State 33, Georgia State 23
Stanford Cardinal vs. Arizona State Sun Devils Preview and Predictions 10-18-2018 in NCAAF
An open date came at a good time for No. 24 Stanford, which expects to have running back Bryce Love in the starting lineup for Thursday's matchup at Arizona State. Love missed Stanford's loss to Utah two weeks ago with a left ankle injury but is healthy and rested heading into the contest against the Sun Devils, who are also coming off a break in their schedule.
Love's return provides an immediate boost for the Cardinal, who opened the season with four straight wins before allowing an average of 39 points in back-to-back losses to No. 4 Notre Dame and Utah. Quarterback K.J. Costello threw for 381 yards against Utah, but coach David Shaw doesn't want anyone thinking Stanford's offense has abandoned its run-first mentality. "Some people will write that we should change what we do, that we should just throw the ball all over the yard," Shaw told reporters. "Those people don't understand what it's taken to get where we are and how many games we've won in the philosophy that we have." Stanford has won five of its last six meetings against Arizona State, which needs an improved defensive effort after allowing an average of 227.3 rushing yards over the past four games.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Stanford -2.5
ABOUT STANFORD (4-2, 2-1 Pac-12): Love rushed for 301 yards and three touchdowns in last season's 34-24 victory over the Sun Devils and was sorely missed in the 40-21 loss to Utah, when Stanford was held to 42 rushing yards. Kaden Smith, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Trenton Irwin all topped 100 receiving yards in the loss, but Costello committed three turnovers and has a 12-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio through six games. Linebackers Bobby Okereke (team-high 43 tackles) and Joey Alfieri (3.5 sacks) lead the defense, which has allowed only seven passing touchdowns.
ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (3-3, 1-2): Eno Benjamin set a single-game school rushing record with 312 yards against Oregon State before finishing with 120 yards and two touchdowns against Colorado. The Sun Devils' explosive offense includes dynamic wide receiver N'Keal Harry (six touchdowns) and quarterback Manny Wilkins, who has thrown 11 touchdowns against one interception and appears fully healthy following an apparent injury late in the Colorado game. The Sun Devils have recorded only three interceptions - including one by cornerback Chase Lucas, who has 19 solo tackles but struggled in the loss to Colorado.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Arizona State has had four of its six games decided by seven points or fewer.
2. Stanford is 18-5 under Shaw when coming off a loss.
3. The Sun Devils have committed only two turnovers this season.
PREDICTION: Arizona State 27, Stanford 24
Stanford at Arizona State
October 16, 2018
By Joe Nelson
This week’s Thursday night game is a Pac-12 clash between Stanford and Arizona State. While the conference may have already played its way out of the national playoff hunt, both division races are still up for grabs and these teams are still viable contenders to play for the championship in December. Here is a look at the Thursday night game to start the next week of college football.
Match-up: Stanford Cardinal at Arizona State Sun Devils
Venue: At Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona
Time/TV: Thursday, October 18, 9:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Stanford -2½, Over/Under 56
Last Meeting: 2017, at Stanford (-17) 34, Arizona State 24
Stanford was expected by many to be not just a Pac-12 contender, but a serious threat to make a run at a spot in the College Football Playoff. The season started out impressively with wins over San Diego State and USC, holding those respectable foes to a combined 13 points in home victories. Stanford then seemed to perhaps be a team of destiny with an improbable comeback to win in overtime at Oregon as well.
In a huge game at Notre Dame in a matchup of teams in the top 10 of the polls in late September, the Cardinal were blown out with a 38-17 defeat. The next week playing without star running back Bryce Love, Stanford fared just as poorly back at home with a 40-21 loss to Utah. Stanford is still 2-1 in Pac-12 play, but has a difficult game remaining at Washington in a few weeks as another good but mildly disappointing season for David Shaw appears to be underway.
Last year, Stanford won the Pac-12 North and lost a competitive Pac-12 Championship game with USC before losing in a tight Alamo Bowl against TCU. The 9-5 finish matched the most losses for Shaw since he took over in 2011, but the team had high hopes for 2018 with Love returning and K.J. Costello showing great promise after taking over at quarterback midway through the 2017 season.
Shaw has an impressive track record currently with a 77-24 record at Stanford halfway through his eighth season, going 51-15 in Pac-12 play while winning five division titles and three conference championships. Shaw has two Rose Bowl wins as well, but the Cardinal have lost at least two games in every season to never seriously threaten in the national picture and this year’s team will be no different already with two defeats.
Last year’s team had the worst statistical defense that Shaw has fielded and the defense so far this season has struggled, allowing 400 yards per game despite only surrendering 22 points per game. Opponents have rushed for 164 yards per game against Stanford while the Cardinal has shockingly been one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation, averaging 86 yards per game on the ground with 3.1 yards per rush.
Love finished second in the Heisman voting last season with 2,118 rushing yards, 19 touchdowns and 8.1 yards per rush. He has missed two games this season and has barely average half of last season’s per carry average posting 4.3 yards per rush and only 327 total yards at this point in the season for a very disappointing senior campaign. He is a question mark this week with the lingering ankle injury.
Costello didn’t play the full season last year, but he already has thrown more interceptions and taken more sacks in his six starts this season for Stanford. He has thrown for 12 touchdowns on nearly 8.9 yards per attempt and his completion rate is up by nearly four percent as the offense has been effective in the passing game with a massive receiving corps led by JJ Arcega-Whiteside.
Herm Edwards was considered a curious hire at Arizona State following the departure of Todd Graham after six seasons. Graham was famously poached from Pittsburgh after just one season and was fairly successful for the Sun Devils making a bowl game in five of six years and winning the Pac-12 South in 2013. Edwards finished 20 games below .500 as a NFL head coach and had never been a head coach at the college level, actually only an assistant for three years as a position coach at San Jose State in the late ‘80s. He had also not been on the sidelines at all in a decade, emerging as a prominent TV personality on ESPN’s NFL coverage.
The Sun Devils made an early splash this season with a home upset of Michigan State, but the Sun Devils are just 3-3 on the season including 1-2 in Pac-12 play. All three losses have come on the road and all were decided by just seven points for competitive games. The remaining schedule for Arizona State is difficult still with USC, Utah, and Oregon on the schedule with two of those three games on the road as this is a critical home date if the Sun Devils are to make a bowl game.
Manny Wilkins has been a productive quarterback for the Sun Devils with nearly 1,500 yards passing and 11 touchdowns with only one interception so far this season. Arizona State has also been one of the better rushing teams in the conference led by Eno Benjamin who has 715 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per carry, currently ninth nationally and second in the Pac-12 in rushing yards.
Arizona State has held foes to just 3.8 yards per rush this season while the pass defense has posted average results with numbers just slightly better than Stanford has posted, through a lesser overall schedule so far. The scoring defense numbers are also nearly identical for these teams and a close game should be expected under the lights in Thursday’s national TV game, coinciding with a Thursday night NFL game 22 miles northwest in Glendale.
Last season: These teams met in late September last season with matching 2-2 records. Arizona State had just defeated Oregon to recover from narrow losses to San Diego State and Texas Tech. Stanford won its opener last season in Australia but then lost to USC and San Diego State in road games before blasting UCLA ahead of this game. It was a back-and-forth game early with the teams trading scores until halftime with a 24-17 edge for the Cardinal as a heavy favorite. Bryce Love broke a 59-yard run in the third quarter but it was a one-score game in the final minutes until a late Stanford field goal. Stanford had a 504-409 yardage edge and a 2-1 edge in turnovers. Love emerged as a serious Heisman threat with 301 yards and three touchdowns, eclipsing 1,000 yards for the season in just his fifth game.
Historical Trends:
Arizona State has a 17-12 S/U edge since 1981 in this series with a 6-3 ATS mark since 2006, though Stanford has won S/U in five of the last six meetings.
Arizona State won the last home meeting in 2014 as a home underdog 26-10, while going 11-4 S/U and 9-6 ATS in the home meetings of this series since 1982.
The Sun Devils are on a 13-5 ATS run as a home underdog since 2009, winning outright in six of nine instances since 2016.
Arizona State is 12-4 S/U and ATS overall at home since 2016.
Stanford is 27-13 S/U and 22-17-1 ATS in road games under Shaw since 2011, going 16-13-1 ATS as a road favorite in that span. Since the start of last season, Stanford is just 1-5-1 ATS in road games.
NCAAF
Long Sheet
Thursday, October 18
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GEORGIA ST (2 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (3 - 3) - 10/18/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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STANFORD (4 - 2) at ARIZONA ST (3 - 3) - 10/18/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA ST is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
ARIZONA ST is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA ST is 1-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAF
Week 8
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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 18
Georgia State @ Arkansas State
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games on the road
Georgia State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arkansas State's last 5 games
Arkansas State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games at home
Stanford @ Arizona State
Stanford
Stanford is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Stanford's last 6 games when playing Arizona State
Arizona State
Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
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ATS Trends
Georgia State
Panthers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Panthers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Arkansas State
Red Wolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Red Wolves are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
Red Wolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Red Wolves are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 conference games.
Red Wolves are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Red Wolves are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
OU Trends
Georgia State
Under is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Panthers last 8 games in October.
Under is 6-2 in Panthers last 8 conference games.
Under is 19-7 in Panthers last 26 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 26-10 in Panthers last 36 games overall.
Under is 13-5 in Panthers last 18 games on fieldturf.
Arkansas State
Under is 4-0 in Red Wolves last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
Under is 7-1 in Red Wolves last 8 conference games.
Under is 8-2 in Red Wolves last 10 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 4-1 in Red Wolves last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
Under is 17-5-1 in Red Wolves last 23 games on fieldturf.
Under is 6-2 in Red Wolves last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 11-4-1 in Red Wolves last 16 home games.
Over is 16-6-1 in Red Wolves last 23 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 20-8-1 in Red Wolves last 29 games overall.
Over is 17-7-1 in Red Wolves last 25 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 9-4 in Red Wolves last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 13-6 in Red Wolves last 19 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Head to Head
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
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ATS Trends
Stanford
Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss.
Cardinal are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Cardinal are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Cardinal are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Arizona State
Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Sun Devils are 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Sun Devils are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Sun Devils are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
OU Trends
Stanford
Over is 4-0 in Cardinal last 4 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinal last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinal last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 12-5 in Cardinal last 17 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 44-20 in Cardinal last 64 games in October.
Under is 38-18 in Cardinal last 56 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 54-26-1 in Cardinal last 81 games following a ATS loss.
Arizona State
Over is 4-0 in Sun Devils last 4 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 9-2 in Sun Devils last 11 games following a bye week.
Over is 12-3 in Sun Devils last 15 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Sun Devils last 7 home games.
Head to Head
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona State.
Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Home team is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
Cardinal are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Arizona State.
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