NCAAF News and Notes Saturday 12/11

Army, Navy in Philly
By Judd Hall

You can throw out the records when these two teams meet.

How many times have we heard that phrase get tossed around in sports? We actually have such a matchup to close out the regular season in college football when the Midshipmen take on Army (6-5 straight up, 5-5 against the spread) at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

This hasn’t been the most exciting battle for a while as Navy (8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won eight straight games against the Cadets by a combined score of 291-74. Yeah, things haven’t been all that good for the kids from West Point for a while.

As bad as things have been for the Black Knights, they are beginning to turn the corner under Rich Ellerson. And he instantly changed the culture there with a 5-7 record. While that isn’t a winning record, it’s still better than anyone has done with the program since 1990s.

Ellerson has improved the triple option attack the Cadets were already running, picking up 260.3 yards per game on the ground in 2010. But more importantly is the fact that they are scoring in the red zone 91 percent of the time this season. That has helped them to score 28.5 points per game. Compare those numbers to the fact that they scored 77 percent of the time in the 20-yard line last season for 15.3 PPG. That’s a jump from 117th to 52nd in terms of scoring offense.

Sophomore Trent Steelman is still running the offense for Army with great efficiency, rushing for 620 yards and throwing for 837 more with 16 total touchdowns. Jared Hassin has been his top running mate, gaining 881 rushing yards and found the end zone nine times. That pair will be meaning business in this game after gaining a combined 47 yards in a 27-3 loss as an 8½-point underdog against Notre Dame on Nov. 20.

Defensively, the Cadets are firmly still buying into the “bend, but not break” setup. They are allowing 332.6 YPG to their opponents to rank 27th nationally. They’re very tough against the run, evidenced by giving up just 141.7 YPG. Once you get into the red zone against them, Army has allowed just 24 touchdowns.

Army will get a workout this week against the Middies’ formidable triple option attack. Ricky Dobbs is at the helm of this offense, gaining 806 yards on the ground with 13 scores. And he’ll get help from Alexander Teich, who has pick up 778 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Not too many people are stopping the Naval Academy this year as they’ve averaging 302.6 rushing YPG to rank fifth in the country.

The big variable in this game is how Navy will fare throwing the ball around. That probably sounds silly, but it’s true. Dobbs has thrown for 1,194 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. That is the most a QB has tossed for in Annapolis since Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was under center in 2007.

What could be an issue for the Midshipmen are the brain cramps they’ve had in the red zone this season. They’ve scored just 83 percent of the time to come in at No. 52 in the land. Think of all the times that Navy had a chance to score against the Terrapins in the season opener. And this is a team that is capable of falling to lesser teams, which is exactly what happened against Duke.

This is the first time since 1996 that both Army and Navy have accepted bowl bids. The Cadets are heading to the Armed Forces Bowl in Dallas to face SMU. Meanwhile, the Middies will be taking on San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego.

The sportsbooks have posted the Midshipmen as 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 53 ½. If that sounds high for this game, just remember that the Black Knights were 14-point ‘dogs for last year’s game. Gamblers can go for the quality payday with Army to win outright for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

Even though the teams are not nearly as far apart as they once were, Sportsbook.com’s Mike Pierce believes there is enough to tilt the line in the Midshipmen’s favor.

“Reason we have Navy a touchdown favorite is they do have a clear cut advantage at talent like you mentioned. Army had been playing some good football, only losing to Hawaii by 3 and beating Duke on the road. But that was in September, and they have regressed a bit recently. That is why the Midshipmen are a little over a touchdown favorite here.”

Army will have to buck recent history if they want to break the losing streak to the Middies. That’s because the Cadets are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS when listed as at least seven-point underdogs with two weeks off since 2005.

Navy is 34-7 SU and 19-21 ATS as a favorite over the last five seasons. Against the military schools in that time frame, they are 6-1 SU and 3-3-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 6-1 in that role as well.

vegasinsider.com

Army vs. Navy: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence

Maneuvering

The Middies sail into Philadelphia having won three games in a row (averaged just under 50 PPG during the streak) and five of their last six.

Navy has also become a red-zone machine, turning around a tough start inside the opponents' 20 by scoring on 32 of the last 33 tries. Plus, the Mids defense has not allowed an Army touchdown in twelve quarters.

But even with the Swabbies’ recent series domination, Army has closed the gap considerably.

A quick check of 2009 and 2010 combined offensive and defensive stats shows Navy improving by just a fraction of a point more per contest and only plus-12.7 total yards per game. The Cadets, though, have improved their total stats over last season by plus-10.5 PPG and plus-62.9 YPG.

Meanwhile, head coach Rich Ellerson has directed his troops to 11 straight up wins during his two-year tenure. That’s relevant considering the Black Knights’ previous three commanders, Stan Brock, Bobby Ross and Todd Berry, combined to produce just 19 wins in the previous nine seasons.

“We don't celebrate being close," said Ellerson. “Our goal is to win every game they let us play.”

Ricky don’t lose that number

Army will be glad to see the last of Navy QB Ricky Dobbs.

Despite missing considerable playing time this season due to a variety of injuries, the senior still accounted for 23 TD’s and is coming off a 318-yard, three-touchdown effort over Arkansas State three weeks ago.

Dobbs set the NCAA record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback last season with 27, and has 48 in his career, ranking No. 5 in NCAA history.

“I know offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper and I yell at him a lot,” said Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo, “but the kid has done some amazing things.”

Victory bell

The 2010 season marks the first time ever that all three military schools will deploy for a postseason bowl.

Since 1963, the service academies have all had a winning season just once. In 1996, Navy won nine games and went to the Aloha Bowl, Army posted a 10-2 record and went to Shreveport for the Independence Bowl but 6-5 Air Force stayed home over the holidays.

Record setters

Navy has 69 wins since 2003, more than traditional powers Nebraska (66), Penn State (65), Miami (64), Michigan (61) and Notre Dame (53).

By contrast, Army has won 26 games in the same time span.

What has made Navy special is its incredible senior class.

If Navy beats Army and San Diego State in the upcoming Poinsettia Bowl, the Midshipmen will have back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in school history.

That would also give the seniors 36 wins, which would tie the class of 1909 for the most wins by a class at the Naval Academy.

“Since the first day we got to the Academy, they’ve instilled in us beat Army,” Navy DB Wyatt Middleton said. “This isn’t only football. From an academic and military standpoint it’s always been beat Army, beat Army, beat Army. It’s all we know. Not to do that would be a huge letdown.”

Marching on

On the precipice of 13 losing seasons in a row, the Cadets will return to a bowl game this year for the first time since 1996.

“This has been the best season we’ve had in quite some time, so with that, I just believe this is our best shot at beating Navy,” Army defensive end Josh McNary said. “No one is lacking in confidence. There’s nothing more that we want to do than beat Navy.

“All the accolades I’ve had are negligible if we haven’t beaten Navy. If 10 years down the road when the question comes up, and I’m not able to say I beat Navy, I can’t be as proud as I’d like to be.”

The Black Knights have defeated the Midshipmen three of the last four times they’ve met in years Army went bowling.

War logs

Nine years have passed since Army beat Navy. The last victory by the Cadets in this rivalry was a 26-17 upset of the Midshipmen in 2001.

Since 1976, in games played between these two military rivals in Philadelphia, the Middies are 22-11-1 ATS – but only 1-6 straight up and 2-5 against the spread when Army owns a win percentage of .500 or more on the season.

Key trend

Navy is 1-13 against the spread as a favorite of four or more points versus a greater than .400 opponent.

Tips and Trends

Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights

MIDSHIPMEN: (-8, O/U 53.5) Navy has won 6 of their past 7 games overall, and stand 8-3 SU for the season. After a rocky start to the season, the Midshipmen have been as good as ever. This Midshipmen offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, scoring more than 30 PTS in each of their past 5 games, including a 76 point outburst against East Carolina. Navy averages 302 YPG rushing this year, 5th most in the nation. Senior QB Ricky Dobbs is capping off his brilliant career over his final 2 games. Dobbs accumulated 2,000 total YDS this season, including 23 TD's. Defensively, the Midshipmen have given up at least 34 PTS in 3 of their last 4 games. Navy has had great success stopping Army of late, holding them to a total of 6 PTS over their past 3 meetings. Navy is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. The Midshipmen are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in December. Navy is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as the listed favorite. The Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

Midshipmen are 6-0 ATS against a team with a winning record.
Under is 5-0 in their last 5 neutral site games as the listed favorite.

Key Injuries - S Emmett Merchant (concussion) is out.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

BLACK KNIGHTS: Army has produced many memories during their 6-5 SU season. The Black Knights are a team on the rise under the Coach Ellerson regime. Army is 5-6 ATS this season, including 4-1 ATS away from home. The Black Knights were 4-3 ATS as the listed underdog this season. Army averaged 260 YPG on the ground this season, 9th best in the nation. FB Jared Hassin had a team high 881 YDS rushing this year, along with 9 TD's. QB Trent Steelman was the 2nd leading rusher with 620 YDS rushing, with 16 total TD's. The Black Knights were playing great defensively until the end of the regular season, where they seemed to be worn down. Army has plenty of revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 8 meetings with Navy. The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Army is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in December. The Black Knights are 2-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. Army is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

Black Knights are 4-17 ATS last 21 games following a bye week.
Under is 6-1 last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - LB Nate Combs (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20