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NCAAF Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Saturday 12/2/23

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(@shazman)
Posts: 57076
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : December 2, 2023 7:32 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57076
Member Moderator
Topic starter
 

Saturday’s games
Big X
Oklahoma State
vs Texas (@ Arlington, TX)
Oklahoma State (9-3, 7-2)
— Okla State won 7 of last 8 games, after a 2-2 start.
— OSU allowed 33-34-45 points in its three losses. 
— Okla State is 7-3 in Big X games (average total, 61.6).
— Cowboys beat BYU 40-34 LW, after trailing 24-6 at half.
— Cowboys are minus-5 in turnovers in losses, +10 in wins.
— 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 129 starts back on offensive line; improvement is expected.
— senior QB Bowman has 5,329 passing yards and 34 passing TD’s in his career.
— He comes to OSU after playing at Texas Tech/Michigan.
— Cowboys are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this year
— In his career, Gundy is 35-29-2 ATS as an underdog.
— OSU is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 Big X games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Cowboys were 7-6 LY, their worst season since 2018.
— Cowboys are 3-2 in last five bowls, winning by 5-3-2 points.
— OSU is 0-1 in Big 12 title tilts (lost 21-16 to Baylor in ’21)

Texas (11-1, 8-1)
— Longhorns won their last six games (3-3 ATS)
— Texas scored 26+ points in every game this year.
— Longhorns’ only loss: 34-30 (-4) vs Oklahoma.
— Texas is 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
— Texas gave up 300+ PY four of last six games.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— starting QB Ewers is back in lineup
— In his career, Sarkisian is 37-29 ATS as a favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 13-14 ATS in Big X games.
— under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.  
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Texas is 3-3 in Big X title games (last appearance, 2018)

— OSU won six of last eight meetings with Texas (2-2 last four)
— under is 8-5 in last 13 series games.
— underdogs are 3-2 ATS in last five Big X title games.

MAC
Miami OH
vs Toledo (@ Detroit)
Miami OH (10-2, 7-1)
— Red Hawks are 8-0 if they score 23+ points.
— Miami covered eight of its last ten games.
— Miami was held to 3-17 points in its two losses (Miami FL/Toledo)
— Red Hawks were held under 300 TY in five of eight MAC tilts.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 61 starts back on offensive line- lost 2 starters to transfer portal.
— senior QB has 29 career starts
— Miami is 2-2 ATS as an underdog TY.
— under Martin, Miami is 33-26-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Miami was 6-7 SU LY despite a +11 turnover ratio.
— Miami is 10-2 TY, with an even turnover ratio.
— Red Hawks are 15-12 ATS in last 27 conference games.
— under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Miami played in bowls three of last four years, going 1-2.
— Red Hawks are 3-2 in MAC title games (last appearance, 2019)

Toledo (11-1, 8-0)
— Toledo is 11-0 since 30-28 loss in opener at Illinois.
— Toledo covered four of its last five games.
— last four games, Toledo scored 34 ppg.
— four of their eight MAC wins were by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 94 starts back on offensive line— 4 starters are back
— junior QB has 19 starts, was 2nd-team all-MAC last year.
— Toledo is 1-1 ATS as a single digit favorite TY.
— under Candle, Toledo is 30-34-1 ATS in MAC games (5-4 TY).
— since 2018, Rockets are 16-26 ATS coming off a win (5-6 TY). 
— four of Rockets’ last six games stayed under the total.
— Toledo is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls- they beat Liberty 21-19 LY.
— Toledo is 4-3 in MAC title games (won last year’s game)

— Toledo (-2) won 21-17 at Miami October 21.
— Rockets led 21-3 at half; they were +2 in turnovers.
— game in October was teams’ first meeting since 2011.
— under is 4-2 in last six series games.
— underdogs covered four of last five MAC title games.

Mountain West
Boise State
@ UNLV
Boise State (7-5, 6-2)
— Boise State fired its coach 19 days ago, still got here.
— Boise is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Broncos won last three games, running for 250.1 yards/game.
— Broncos are minus-2 in turnovers this season.
— Last six years, Boise was +31 in turnovers.
— Broncos allowed 31+ points in four of their five losses.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— Boise is 7-9-1 ATS last 17 games as a road favorite.
— last 3 years, Broncos are 14-10-1 ATS in MW games.
— six of their last nine games went over the total.
— since 2017, Boise is 2-1 in bowls (had two cancelled)
— Boise is 3-3 in MW title games (1-3 over last five years)

UNLV (9-3, 6-2)
— UNLV is in Mountain West title game for the first time.
— Rebels gave up 35-31-37 points in their three losses.
— Rebels are 3-2 in games decided by 7 or less points. 
— UNLV has gained 397+ yards in every game but Michigan loss.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line, but there isn’t much depth.
— frosh QB has completed 64.1% of passes (14 TD’s, 6 INT)
— In his career, coach Odom is 4-2 ATS as home dog (1-0 TY).
— since 2021, Rebels are 5-3 ATS as a home underdog.
— UNLV is 14-10 ATS in its last 24 Mountain West games.
— Seven of their last ten games went over the total.
— Rebels are going to first bowl game since 2013.
— UNLV’s last bowl win was in 2000.

— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Boise won last five series games (3-2 ATS)
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.
— underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five MW title games.

SEC
Georgia
vs Alabama (@ Atlanta)
Georgia (12-0, 8-0)
— Georgia won its last 29 games (lost SEC title game in ’21)
— Georgia is 4-6-1 against spread this season.
— Only 3 of their 12 wins were by less than 10 points.
— Dawgs allowed 20+ points in four of last eight SEC games.
— Last 3 games, Auburn ran ball for 219 yards.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— Last three games, Georgia ran for 300-156-262 yards.
— New QB for Georgia; he is completing 72.4%, with 22 TD’s, 6 INTs.
— Last 2+ years, Georgia is 16-12 ATS in SEC games (4-4 TY).
— three of Georgia’s last four games stayed under the total.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
— Georgia is 4-6 in SEC title games (1-3 over last five years)

Alabama (11-1, 8-0)
— Alabama is 10-4 in SEC title games, 8-0 since 2009.
— Alabama won its last ten games (7-3 ATS). 
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— Alabama gave up 20+ points in its last six I-A games.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— since 2016, Alabama is 1-1 ATS as an underdog.
— Alabama is 25-18-1 ATS in last 44 games coming off a win.
— Crimson Tide is +5 in turnovers in its last four games.
— Alabama is 6-2 ATS in SEC games this season.
— six of their last seven games went over.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.

— Alabama won seven of last eight series games.
— underdogs are 7-2 ATS in last nine meetings.
— under is 6-3 in last nine meetings.
— underdogs are 3-2 ATS in SEC title games.

AAC
SMU @ Tulane
SMU (10-2, 8-0)
— SMU won its last eight games (5-3 ATS), scoring 46 ppg.
— Mustangs scored 31+ points in its wins this year. 
— SMU’s losses are to Big X teams: 28-11 at Oklahoma, 34-17 at TCU.
— Mustangs are 8-0 in AAC (5-3 ATS).
— last 4+ years, SMU is 41-18 SU/29-29 ATS.
— under Lashlee, Mustangs are 0-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 123 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB Stone has competed 59.9% of passes, with 28 TD’s, 6 INT.
— since 2017, Mustangs are 24-30 ATS in AAC (4-4 TY)
— five of SMU’s last six games went over total.
— SMU qualified for a bowl 4 of last 5 years; last bowl win, 2012.
— SMU is in AAC title game for first time.

Tulane (11-1, 8-0)
— Tulane won its last ten games since 37-20 loss to Ole Miss.
— Green Wave is 4-6 ATS in its last ten games.
— Tulane has four wins by 7 or fewer points.
— 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 130 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 33 starts
— Tulane is 18-7 ATS last 25 games as a home favorite (2-3 ATS).
— In his career, Fritz is 29-17 ATS as a road favorite.
— Under Fritz, Green Wave is 38-28-1 ATS in league games. 
— 10 of last 11 Tulane games stayed under the total.
— Tulane is 3-1 SU/ATS in its last four bowls.
— Tulane won AAC title game 45-28 LY, its first appearance in title game.

— Home team won last four AAC title games.
— SMU won seven of last eight series games (5-3 ATS)
— Mustangs are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Tulane.
— over is 8-2 in last ten meetings.

Sun Belt
Appalachian State
@ Troy
Appalachian State (8-4, 6-2)
— App State won its last five games, scoring 40.4 ppg.
— ASU split its six road games SU this year.
— Last 3 years, App State is 5-0-1 ATS as a road dog (3-0 TY).
— ASU is 8-1 scoring 26+ points, 0-3 scoring 24 or less.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 65 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB played JC ball; he’s thrown 33 TD’s, 9 INT this year. 
— App State covered its last four games (+6 in turnovers).
— ASU gained 500+ TY in three of last five games.
— under is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— ASU has played in bowls the last three years, its first three bowls.
— App State is 2-1 in Sun Belt title games.

Troy (10-2, 7-1)
— Troy won its last nine games (7-1 ATS last eight).
— Trojans were held to 13-14 points in their two losses.
— Troy is 9-13 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite (2-3 TY). 
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 88 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB had 28 career starts coming into this year. 
— Last three games, Troy scored 45-31-35 points.
— Last six games. Trojans are +8 in turnovers.
— under Sumrall, Trojans are 12-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
— Troy’s last three games went over the total.
— Troy won its last five bowls, dating back to 2010.
— Troy won Sun Belt title game LY, its first appearance.

— App State won five in row, seven of last eight series games.
— ASU won/covered three of last four visits to Troy.
— over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
— Favorites are 2-2 ATS in last four Sun Belt title games.

Big 14
Michigan
vs Iowa (@ Indianapolis)
Michigan (12-0, 9-0)
— Wolverines are 9-0 SU/6-2-1 ATS in Big 14 games.
— their last three wins were by 9-7-6 points.
— Michigan is 4-5-1 ATS as a double digit favorite TY.
— Last three games, Michigan was held to 305.3 ypg.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 145 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB McCarthy has 13 career starts (22 TD passes, 5 INT LY).
— Last 2+ years, Michigan is 18-8-2 ATS in conference games. 
— Michigan is 20-13-3 ATS in last 34 games coming off a win. 
— seven of last eight Michigan games went over the total.
— Michigan is 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS in last five bowls, giving up 40.3 ppg in last four
— Michigan is 2-0 in Big 14 title games (42-3/43-22- last two years)

Iowa (10-2, 7-2)
— Iowa won its last four games, giving up 7.5 ppg. 
— Hawkeyes’ two losses 31-7 @ Penn State, 12-10 vs Minnesota.
— Iowa has four wins where they scored 15 or fewer points.  
— Hawkeyes gained 291 or less TY in 10 of 12 games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 114 starts back on offensive line
— Iowa QB McNamara tore his ACL, is out for year. 
— soph backup QB is completing 48.3% of passes (5 TD, 6 INTs)
— Iowa is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as an underdog (2-1 TY). 
— Hawkeyes are 30-16-1 ATS in last 47 games coming off a win.
— Iowa is 20-14-1 ATS in last 35 conference games.
— under is 7-0 in their last seven games.
— Iowa won four of its last five bowl games (5-0 ATS)
— Hawkeyes are 0-2 in Big 14 title game, losing 16-13/42-3.

— Michigan won/covered last three meetings, by total of 79-20.
— Wolverines covered five of last six series games.
— four of last five meetings stayed under the total.
— favorites are 3-2 ATS in last five Big 14 title games.

ACC
Louisville
vs Florida State (@ Charlotte)
Louisville (10-2, 7-1)
— Louisville won four of its last five games.
— Cardinals gave up 38 points in both losses (Pitt/Kentucky)
— Louisville has five wins by 7 or fewer points.
— last four games, Louisville scored 34-31-38-31 points.
— Cardinals are 9-19-1 ATS last 29 games as an underdog (0-1 TY).
— Louisville is 7-0 ATS in last seven games coming off a loss.
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— In his career, Brohm is 26-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
— last three Louisville games went over the total.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3).
— Louisville is in ACC title game for the first time.

Florida State (12-0, 8-0)
— FSU QB Travis is out for the year.
— backup QB Rodemaker was 12-25/134 in his first start LW.
— Seminoles allowed 14 ppg in their last three I-A games.
— Last three I-A games, FSU is +4 in turnovers.
— Seminoles have three wins by 7 or less points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 206 starts back on offensive line; ton of experience.
— soph backup QB is 25-48/351 passing, since Travis got hurt.
— Seminoles are 3-0 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
— in his career, Norvell is 38-30 ATS as a favorite
— under Norvell, FSU is 16-16 ATS in the ACC.
— under is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Seminoles went bowling LY for first time since 2019
— FSU has played in one bowl since 2019 (3-1 last four SU)
— FSU is 4-1 in ACC title games, but last one was in 2014.

— teams split last eight series games.
— favorites covered last four series games.
— over is 7-2 in last nine meetings.
— favorites covered last five ACC title games.

 
Posted : December 2, 2023 7:35 am
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