NCAAF 2019 Non Power Five Preview

2019 C-USA Preview
By Marc Lawrence

Meaningful Milestones

The 2019 season marks two important milestones - the 150th anniversary of college football and the 25th season of Conference-USA. The sport that began with Princeton and Rutgers on November 6, 1869, will be celebrating its 150th birthday. Conference-USA and its 14 members will join nearly 900 teams across all divisions to celebrate the anniversary with a special uniform patch. The uniform logo program will be the most widespread effort of its kind in the history of college athletics.

The QB Conference

Conference-USA has developed an outstanding tradition of quarterbacks throughout its history. This season could mark one of the deepest, most experienced groups of signal-callers in years with as many as 11 C-USA teams returning starters from last season. Highlighting the group is the two-time C-USA Offensive Player of the Year, North Texas senior QB Mason Fine.

We’re Back

A total of 11 All-Conference Offense First-and-Second team members from 2018 return this season. Plus 10 players are back from the 2018 All-Conference Defense First-and-Second teams this season.

This Is How We Bowl

Conference-USA sent six programs to play in bowl games last year. The conference finished the 2018 bowl season with a 4-2 record. The .667 winning percentage was the best among all FBS conferences, the fourth time in eight years that Conference USA has posted the best bowl winning percentage among all leagues.

Conference-USA is 30-18 SU and 28-19-1 ATS in bowl games since 2011. Its .625 mark leads the Group of Five in bowl win percentage over that span. And not one to back off during the regular season, a total of 22 games are scheduled in 2019 against teams that played in a bowl game last season.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

C-USA EAST

CHARLOTTE (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 7/3, RPR: 51/78/50)

TEAM THEME: TURNAROUND AND LOOK AT ME

New head coach Will Healy arrives from Austin Peay where he won an Eddie Robinson Award as the National FCS Coach of the Year in 2017. Healy engineered one of the most incredible turnarounds in college football history. In his second year, the Governors went 8-4 after going 1-45 over the previous four years. He inherits a Charlotte defense that ranked 11th among FBS schools in rush defense last season and 25th in total defense. In addition, the 49ers return five players that earned all-CUSA honors last year. Last year we called out the fact they were a young team evolving into an experienced group, that spring chickens turn into barnyard roosters and with it an air of hidden confidence is shaped. This year they likely crash the bowl party.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since becoming an FBS school, Charlotte is 3-15 SU in its final six games of the season.

PLAY ON: vs. UMass (9/14)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 6/2, RPR: 96/87/88)

TEAM THEME: LANE ADJUSTMENT

What a mess for Lane Kiffin’s surprising upstart crew last season. Not only did they fall from 11-wins to 5 last year, but they also crashed and burned as favorites in the process, beating the spread just one time in seven tries. Ironically, they won the stats but lost the game in four of the seven contests in which they were installed as chalk. And so it was for the Owls in 2018, a total reversal of fortune for a team that destroyed Akron, 50-3, in the Boca Raton Bowl to close out the best season in school history the prior year. QB Chris Robison returns but their most valuable weapon, RB Devin Singletary, left early for the NFL draft.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 8-23 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 4-13 the last 4 seasons.

PLAY ON: at Charlotte (9/28)

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 8/3, RPR: 6/8/26)

TEAM THEME: BUTCH CAT ON THE PROWL

While the Panthers improved their numbers clear across the board for the second year in a row under Butch Davis last season, the fact of the matter is the schedule maker is likely on Davis’ Christmas card list. That’s because FIU faced only three foes with winning records in 2018, taking on opponents that went 53-82 during the regular season – the softest slate in the FBS. Only five such sightings are to be found in 2019, along with no back-to-back road games. Toss in a ton of returning experience and stellar recruiting classes the past three years and you can understand why Davis still rules in South Florida these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Davis is 6-0 ATS in his career as an underdog when coming off a loss of 12 or more points.

PLAY ON: at Marshall (11/30) - KEY* as a dog off a loss

MARSHALL (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 6/2, RPR: 94/66/105)

TEAM THEME: BACK ON THE BALL

The Herd went bowling for the fifth time in the past six years last season but brings back a squad short on experience in 2019. Head coach Doc Holliday is faced with replacing the majority of his front seven along with his defensive coordinator, while the offense loses star WR Tyre Brady. The good news is enormous JUCO Josh Ball, who started nine games for Florida State, transfers in to anchor the offensive line. Holliday realizes that his team was the only Group of 5 program to record three straight 10-win seasons before blowing up with only 3 victories in 2016. The climb back up over the past two seasons has been rewarding. The ball is back in their court.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Marshall is 6-0 SUATS in bowl games under Holliday.

PLAY AGAINST: at Florida Atlantic (10/18)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense - 4/2, Defense - 6/2, RPR: 122/111/101)

TEAM THEME: MISSING YOU... AND YOU... AND YOU...

Like it or not, Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill will be toiling as an “empty nester” this season. That’s because his son, 4-year starting QB Brent Stockstill, has graduated and is hoping to land an NFL free agent contract. What the 2018 CUSA Coach Of The Year is really hoping for in 2019, though, is an injury-free season as his team was hampered much of the season last year. Still, the Raiders managed to make it the CUSA championship while relying heavily on 21 seniors who combined to start 61.8 % of MTSU’s games in 2018 – the 2nd most in the nation. With that card now played out, it’s on to re-tooling a young and inexperienced unit in 2019.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: MTSU has been bowl eligible ten times in 13 years under Rick Stockstill, competing in eight bowl games.

PLAY AGAINST: at Charlotte (11/2)

OLD DOMINION (Offense - 4/2, Defense - 5/1, RPR: 111/113/73)

TEAM THEME: THE MAX WITH THE MINIMUM

If the Monarchs were cast onto the Game Of Thrones, head coach Bobby Wilder would have been the Night King last season. After ascending to a 10-win team in 2016, the air has come out of the balloon for the Monarchs the last two campaigns. Making matters worse for this neophyte program that joined the FBS ranks in 2014, is an offense this season that has been decimated by player losses. Last year’s 1-6 start set the tone for things to come but to their credit, the Wildlings refused to die – a testament to the head coach who launched this program just six years ago. Sadly, Wilder is out shopping at TJ Maxx for JUCO’s this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Old Dominion’s home sellout streak officially ended at 60 last season. It has a 47-19 record all-time at home.

PLAY ON: at Middle Tennessee (11/23)

WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense - *10/5, Defense - 6/3, RPR: 14/14/39)

TEAM THEME: YOUNG PEAS IN A POD

After having sailed ‘over’ its season win totals in five of the previous six years, before bouncing to only 3 victories in 2018, new head coach Tyson Helton – USC coach Clay’s brother – knows that immediate improvement is expected from the Hilltoppers in 2019. Prior to taking over the reins at Western Kentucky this season, Helton was an OC in five previous seasons at WKU, USC, and Tennessee. Those teams averaged 9.2 wins, 35.6 points and 469.4 yards per game under his tutelage. Western Kentucky’s 2015 season ended with The Hill ranked final AP ranking of 24 – the highest in school history – and a school-record 12 victories, including the first-ever FBS conference championship while breaking more than two-dozen school offensive records under Helton as offensive coordinator. Meanwhile, Sophomore RB Joshua Samuel rushed for over 600 yards at nearly 5.5 YPR in 2018 and will only get better – as should the rest of this very experienced squad.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: A total of 20 underclassmen made starts for the Hilltoppers last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Louisville (9/14)

C-USA WEST

LOUISIANA TECH (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 5/0, RPR: 30/28/54)

TEAM THEME: THE HAIR OF THE DOG

There is no hiding the fact that Skip Holtz’s offense has been waning the past two seasons – scoring nearly 300 fewer points last year than in 2016. With it, Holtz is banking on an experienced group of returnees, starting with QB J’Mar Smith. Meanwhile, the running game failed to tally 2,000 yards for the first time since 2013, and it should be noted that the Bulldogs have suffered 5 1-point losses over the past three seasons. Safe to say that hangovers like these would normally affect most teams in a bad way. Not when you’re a Skip Holtz team looking to return to 9-win territory, where they resided from 2014-2016. We’ve learned to not bet against Skippy in underdog roles.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Holtz is 48-24-1 ATS as a dog in his career, including 20-3-1 ATS when coming off an ATS win of more than 8 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Southern Miss (10/19)

NORTH TEXAS (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 5/2, RPR: 59/22/110)

TEAM THEME: PAY ATTENTION

Exactly how much street cred does Mean Green head coach Seth Littrell have, you ask? After inheriting a 1-11 team, Littrell has won 23 games and a division title in his first three years in Denton. Yeah, we’re paying attention. Coming off his best season ever in 2018, Littrell lost OC Graham Harrell, the ex-Texas Tech quarterback, to USC, but he’s been an OC multiple times himself. He’ll utilize the entire passing attack as QB Mason Fine (nearly 4,000 passing yards with 27 TDs and 5 INTs last season) and his receiving corps is back from the league’s top scoring offense. Remember, Littrell turned down numerous coaching offers to remain in Denton. The man can coach.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: North Texas was the only FBS team to outgain EVERY opponent during the regular season last year.

PLAY ON: at Louisiana Tech (11/9)

RICE (Offense - 6/2, Defense - 6/1, RPR: 5/29/4)

TEAM THEME: PLAYING THE BACKUP, BACKUP, BACKUP, BACKUP QB

As a result of starting both the 3rd most freshmen and the 3rd most underclassmen (including a nation-high 27 players making 56.8% team-starts) last season, the force-fed Owls suddenly become one of the nation’s deepest squads in terms of returning experience this season. But it wasn’t easy. Few seasons played out as unfortunate on the injury front as the Owls’ 2018 campaign. Rice lost QBs Shawn Stankavage and Evan Marshman to injury during the year. Jackson Tyner and Sam Glaesmann were bumped down the depth chart for performance, leaving freshman Wiley Green as the next man up when “next man up” was called against FIU. Taking on a brutal schedule in 2019 should be a breeze in Year Two for Mike Bloomgren.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rice is 31-11-3 ATS as a conference home dog, including 16-2-2 ATS when taking less than 7 points.

PLAY ON: at UTSA (10/19)

SOUTHERN MISS (Offense - *10/5, Defense - 6/2, RPI: 4/1/47)

TEAM THEME: HOP ABOARD, Y’ALL

As a result of having started the third most of seniors in 2017, the Golden Eagles were forced to go the barefoot route last season. What it means is they will be one of the most experienced teams in the land in 2019. To top it off, the defense was dynamite last year, ranking 3rd in the nation overall. The biggest concern, though, is an offense that has regressed each and every year in both points and yardage under 4th-year head coach Jay Hopson. A rugged 3-game non-conference stretch to start September should have them primed for league play. Nevertheless, look for the Hattiesburg Eagles to soar once October rolls around.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USM played in a bowl game for 14 of 15 years until the 2012 season. Since then, the Eagles have been to just 3 bowls.

PLAY ON: vs. North Texas (10/12)

UAB (Offense - *4/1, Defense - 4/1, RPR: 130/128/125)

TEAM THEME: PARTY OUT

As Don Meredith liked to say, “Turn out the lights, the party’s over.” Or so it will seem this season for the back-on-the-map Blazers, whose long climb back from football’s deathbed perhaps peaked last season with a school-record 11 victories, no thanks to a senior-laden squad urged on with motivation to help resurrect this program back to respectability. In doing so, UAB poured thru a roster that witnessed a total of 23 seniors making 69.7% of the starts in 2018 – the most in the land. As a result, four linemen and the top four WRs are gone on offense. The good news, though, is UAB will tackle only three foes that owned a winning record last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Blazers are 12-3 ATS under Clark when facing an opponent coming off a win, including 7-0 ATS when UAB is coming off a loss.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Louisiana Tech (11/23)

UTEP (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 4/2, RPR: 124/85/129)

TEAM THEME: MAKING LEMONADE OUT OF LEMONS

Good news for any football team that has won ONE game the past two years: 32 signees inked to a recruiting class, including 5 three-star recruits and 12 more two-star recruits. It was clearly the best class UTEP has had in nearly a decade. Now if second-year head coach Dana Dimel finds time for the new kids on the block this season, 2020 will clearly take on a different look in El Paso, one certainly more appealing than Trump’s immigration wall. Despite just one win last season, the Miners’ stats improved significantly on both sides of the ball in points scored and allowed, as well as yardage gained and allowed in 2018. Now that’s a refreshing concoction.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 9-73-1 SU and 18-60-3 ATS in the last 83 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.

PLAY ON: at New Mexico State (11/23)

UTSA (Offense - *9/5, Defense - 6/3, RPR: 89/58/103)

TEAM THEME: GET THOSE ZAGODACTYL FEET MOVING

After improving their numbers on both sides of the ball in 2017, the Roadrunners blew all four tires and went rim-running last season when the offense regressed 140 yards and the defense declined 137 yards. Through it all, UTSA had its win total slashed in half as San Antonio enters the 2019 campaign on a 6-game losing slide. We hope it doesn’t negatively affect head coach Frank Wilson’s job security, as he is an extremely well-liked, and highly respected coach. For the Roadrunners to return to their 2017 ways, though, the offense will need to hit the weight room and do some heavy lifting. Oddly, a third offensive coordinator in as many years might actually help as the ‘Runners try to solve why their get-up-and-go got up and went.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 5-22 ATS in SU conference losses.

PLAY AGAINST: at UTEP (10/5)

2019 AAC Preview
By Marc Lawrence

Coaches Call

Entering its sixth year of existence, the American Athletic Conference remains the top Group of 5 League heading into the 2019 football season.

While the loop has struggled in bowl games, going 12-22 SU and ATS (2-9 SUATS versus .690 or greater foes), it continues to be a breeding ground for up-and-coming head coaches, including the likes of Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell, Memphis’ Mike Norvell, Tulane’s Willie Fritz, Tulsa’s Phillip Montgomery and UCF’s Josh Heupel.

Meanwhile, the 24 wins by Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo over Power Five or BCS Conference foes is still the most of all Group of Five schools.

Three head coaches make their AAC debut in 2018, including Houston’s Dana Holgorsen, Temple’s Rod Carey, and ECU’s Mike Houston – who makes his debut as a head coach at the FBS level.

Expect one or two of the aforementioned coaches to move on to a Power Five team in the near future, much like last year when Geoff Collins moved from Temple to Georgia Tech.

Talking Points

• Danger ahead: since the AAC formation in 2014 the conference has struggled mightily in non-conference games following a SUATS loss, going just 13-37-1 ATS. And if they are visitors in these games they fall off the face of the earth, going 2-17 and 3-16 SUATS. Gulp.

• Since the formation of the conference in 2014, the best role for AAC teams has been on the road when coming off a win and facing a foe coming off a loss. It’s where teams in the conference stand 51-34 SU and 54-30-1 ATS overall, including 39-19-1 ATS if they scored 35 or more points in their last game.

• Average attendance at American Athletic Conference home stadiums was 28,669, clearly No. 1 for Group of Five conferences. The problem, though, is it represents a decline of -2,709 fans per game dating back to the 2016 season, the largest fall-off of all FBS conferences.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

AAC EAST

CINCINNATI (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 7/1, RPR: 36/42/44)

TEAM THEME: NITPICKY

After ascending from 4 wins to a surprising 11 victories last season, Cincinnati head coach Luke Fickell will feel like he has his hands tied this season. That’s because teams who improve at such a dramatic rate as the Bearcats did last year often regress the following campaign. If there is an improvement, it generally does not show in the win-loss column. Yes, UC brings back a ton of experience on both sides of the ball but as a result, they will likely be an overpriced commodity in 2019. That being said, the Bearcats welcome back the best punter in the FBS, James Smith, who averaged 44.3 net yards per punt. We’re not being persnickety... just realistic.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fickell is 1-8-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite as a head coach with Ohio State and Cincinnati.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. UCLA (8/29) - *KEY as a favorite.

CONNECTICUT (Offense - 6/4, Defense - 10/4, RPR: 60/125/2)

TEAM THEME: TEAM XANAX

When you are described as the most depressing team in the FBS, as the Huskies were by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, you can rest assured that alumni are most likely suffering from pangs of anxiety. This once proud football program simply hasn’t been the same since Randy Edsall left, and then returned, as they enter the 2019 season riding a 7-year losing skein. Worse, UConn actually allowed 605 points last season. A lot can be attributed to the fact that, next to Minnesota, freshmen accounted for more starts than any team in the nation last season. A 2-21 record against FBS foes in Edsall’s recent return – including 17 straight losses – continues to paint a gloomy picture.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies have been out-yarded in 25 of their last 26 FBS games.

PASS

EAST CAROLINA (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 7/3, RPR: 83/60/91)

TEAM THEME: HOUSE AFIRE

New coach Mike Houston, who guided James Madison to successive FCS Championship Game appearances and one national title, owns an 80-25 record with a combined six conference championships in eight seasons as a head coach. During his time with JMU, the Dukes sported a 15-3 ledger against Top 25 teams. He’ll like knowing that ECU force-fed underclassmen, who made 20 starts last season, as they welcome back over 70% of their lettermen in 2019. Bill Connelly put it best when he said, “When you fire a good coach (Ruffin McNeill) in the hopes of getting a great one, you end up burning your house to the ground.” In Houston, the Pirates appear to have a good one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Pirates are 2-24 SU and 1-25 ATS versus conference foes with a winning record since 2010.

PLAY ON: at SMU (11/9)

TEMPLE (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 7/2, RPR: 67/65/75)

TEAM THEME: DRAGONSTONE

When you are the third head coach inside of a calendar year at a rising football program, you’re likely to take on a redheaded stepchild complex. However, being the 6th head coach at Temple over the past 10 seasons, Rod Carey can take comfort in knowing that he owned a 38-10 (.792) career mark in conference games at Northern Illinois. How good is that? Consider: that is better than both Nick Saban (.774) and Jimbo Fisher (.747). Carey inherits a squad that improved its numbers across the board on both sides of the ball last season. Expect Carey to pull a Jon Snow and conquer all critics as he finds a comfortable spot upon his new throne.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Owls head coach Rod Carey is 22-10 SU and 22-9-1 ATS as a visitor in his CFB head-coaching career.

PLAY ON: vs. UCF (10/26)

UCF (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 5/1, RPR: 90/96/66)

TEAM THEME: A LONG TIME BETWEEN DRINKS OF WATER

When star QB McKenzie Milton suffered a gruesome knee injury last season, it looked like doomsday for the Knights. Nonetheless, FR QB Darriel Mack Jr. filled in admirably over the course of the final three games of the season (named MVP of the AAC championship game when he tossed for 6 TDs). Yet Mack finds himself in a battle with Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush. With it, head coach Josh Heupel guides a UCF squad that takes a 25-1 skein into 2019 – the best two-year record in the FBS. The loss (to LSU in the Sugar Bowl) was the Knights’ first defeat in 745 days when it last fell to Arkansas State in the 2016 Cure Bowl.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: UCF has scored 30 or more points in each of its last 26 games the past two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Temple (10/26)

USF (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 5/3, RPR: 38/11/93)

TEAM THEME: 6-EGG OMELET

USF opened 2018 with 7 straight wins. Then reality settled in quickly, as the Bulls dropped their final 6 games to conclude the season. With it, head coach Charlie Strong overhauled his coaching staff when he replaced five assistants in the offseason, and hired OC/QB coach Kerwin Bell, whose mantra is “play fast, score faster”. Remember, only six teams in the country had more starts by freshmen (20.4%) than the Bulls last season (51.9) – and that generally pays off in spades the following year. With their leading QB and top three RBs in the fold, they’ll be eager to wipe the egg off their face for last year’s frustrating finish.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USF is the first team in AP Poll history to lose 6 straight games after starting the season 7-0.

PLAY AGAINST: at East Carolina (10/26) - *KEY

AAC WEST

HOUSTON (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 4/1, RPR: 82/13/126)

TEAM THEME: HOLGO HEADS HOME

New head coach Dana Holgorsen arrives from West Virginia in what might appear to be a step-down in programs. A closer inspection shows that Holgorsen has deep connections to the city where he was an offensive coordinator when he teamed with QB Case Keenum 10 years ago for two-record-setting seasons. He’s back home where his closest friends reside. His five-year, $20 million contract is the richest of all Group of Five coaches, including an added $1 million bonus should the Cougs enter the Big 12 during his tenure. With it, Holgorsen is the first sitting head coach to leave a Power Five program for the Group of Five since the College Football Playoff began in 2014.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Dana Holgorsen is 0-12 ATS with rest when his team owns a sub .750 win percentage.

PLAY AGAINST: at Oklahoma (9/1)

MEMPHIS (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 8/3, RPR: 7/23/12)

TEAM THEME: TIGERIFFIC

Head coach Mike Norvell can’t wait to hear the first whistle of the 2019 football season. And neither would you if your team was as loaded as his. Memphis underclassmen started 41.6% of the team’s starts last season, meaning its Returning Production Ranking is 7th best in the nation this year. The combination of a soft schedule (only four FBS foes with winning records last season) affords them the chance to be favored in every game in 2019. Remember, this team has averaged 9 wins per season the last five years (9.6 wins and 42 PPG under Norvell) and returning QB Brady White was a blue-chip recruit at Arizona State. Can you say New Year’s 6?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Memphis is 21-0 SU in its last 21 home games against .666 or fewer opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Navy (9/26)

NAVY (Offense - 4/2, Defense - 4 /1, RPR: 126/108/122)

TEAM THEME: OPERATION CATCH UP

If it seems like the Middies are a bit light on experience this season, it’s because they are. Gone is a senior class that started over 60% off all games last season (3rd most in the land) as no less than 18 of them made starts. However, after seeing a 6-year bowl skein snapped with a 3-win season last year, Navy is a classic “mission team” in 2019 and we’re not about to step in front of that. Not when, since 1980, military “mission teams” coming off a losing season that was preceded by three consecutive winning campaigns are 43-28-2. The question is will that be enough to “catch up “ with suddenly surging Army? Hooyah.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Navy is 72-5 under Niumatalolo when entering the fourth quarter with the lead.

PLAY ON: vs. Army (12/14) - *KEY as a dog

SMU (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 9/4, RPR: 27/52/20)

TEAM THEME: WHAT’S UP WITH THAT?

The big news on campus this season is the transfer of QB Shane Buechele from Texas to SMU. It's an ideal situation for the Mustangs. Buechele is an atypical graduate transfer who is not only immediately eligible but also has two years of eligibility remaining. He passed for over 4,000 combined yards in his freshman and sophomore campaigns while compiling a higher percentage of completions and fewer interceptions than outgoing QB Ben Hicks during those seasons. Buechele will also benefit from six star-studded receivers in 2019. After a strange year in which the defense actually improved 47 YPG and the offense regressed 112 YPG, expect this Air Raid offense to reach new heights in 2019.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Dykes is 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS at home versus sub .500 opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Navy (11/23)

TULANE (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 8/4, RPR: 99/106/71)

TEAM THEME: PUTTING ON THE FRITZ

So how important was Tulane’s 7-win effort last year? The Wave experienced its first winning record in conference play last year since 2013, and only it’s second dating back to 1998. It’s important to note that prior to HC Willie Fritz’ arrival, Tulane had enjoyed just one winning season in 13 years. “We’ve gotten better every year we’ve been here,” boasted Fritz. One look at the Green Wave rushing stats under Fritz tells you all you need to know. To help balance the attack, former Oklahoma State WR Jalen McCleskey (snared 50 passes in 2017) arrives and figures to be a big boost to the offense. Look for Fritz’s footprint to be ever present this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Willie Fritz is 20-3 SU and 15-5 ATS versus .333 or fewer opponents.

PLAY ON: at SMU (11/30)

TULSA (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 8/2, RPR: 17/41/19)

TEAM THEME: THREE-CARD MONTY

With just 5 wins the past two seasons, Phil Montgomery finds himself sitting on a pretty hot seat in Tulsa. If there is one commodity a coach in his situation could ask for, it’s a well-stocked defense that improved 121 yards per game last season. And it doesn’t hurt knowing Montgomery stands 16-11 SU and 17-7-1 ATS in games in which his teams allow 34 or fewer points. Still, even though Tulsa is bolstered by the return of a deeply experienced squad that has been ravaged by injuries the last two seasons, resulting in 8 one-possession losses, pulling themselves back up won’t be easy. But the feeling here is Field Marshall Montgomery saves his hide with an all-in effort.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tulsa is 31-8 SU and 30-9 ATS in conference games in which it scores 30 or more points.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at SMU (10/5)

2019 Independents Preview
By Marc Lawrence

Sitake’s Ups And Downs

During its first six years as an independent team, BYU won 52 games, with never fewer than 8 victories in any one season. In 2017, however, the Cougars’ fortunes suffered a major plummet, winning just 4 games behind an offense that ranked No. 118 in the nation – worse than Kansas, Rice and Ball State. It was BYU’s first losing season since 2004, making them a true “mission team” - in more ways than one – in 2018.

The Mormons rebounded, as expected, in its mission season last year, when the routed Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. It marked the first time the team actually improved both is offensive and defensive numbers from one year to the next under Kalani Sitake.

Status Quo

The ranks of football independents have increased and decreased with each passing season since 2011 when BYU left the Mountain West Conference.

It increased by two teams in 2013 when the Western Athletic Conference dropped football, paving the way for the inclusion of New Mexico and Idaho. Then in 2014, it lost two teams when Idaho and New Mexico State became football only members of the Sun Belt Conference. In 2015 Navy bolted for the American Athletic Conference as a football-only entrant. 2016 saw the addition of UMass, with New Mexico State returning in 2017. Liberty joined the Independents in 2018 as the revolving door continued to swing like a turnstile. Now, however, for the first time in seven years, the same 6 teams comprise the Independents this season that did in 2018.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

ARMY (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 4/0, RPR: 47/16/102)

TEAM THEME: THIS IS THE NEW ARMY

How does a team that won 11 games last season for the first time, took Oklahoma to the wire before falling in overtime and hammered Houston, 70-14, in the Armed Forces Bowl, tying the FBS record for the most lopsided result in a bowl game, improve on those kinds of numbers? We’re not sure it’s possible but we do know the Black Knights are one of only two teams that will face only three opponents that owned a winning record last year (UAB the other). Then consider this: Army has defeated Navy and won a bowl game the same year four times. They’ve gone 9-3, 10-3 and 11-2 the following seasons. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After bowling just two times in 27 years, the Cadets have now done so three years in a row.

PASS

BYU (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 8/3, RPR: 65/48/85)

TEAM THEME: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

To his credit, Kalani Sitake went with a youth-infusion during last year’s “mission season” and it looks as if it’s going to pay off in spades in 2019. That’s because the Cougars’ freshmen started the 4th most amount of games in 2018 (22.1%). Defensively, BYU returns 8 starters from a unit that ranked No. 18 in total defense. In addition, the special teams unit was 4th best in the nation last year according to ESPN. QB Zach Wilson returns after starting the final seven games in 2018. Wilson was a perfect 18 for 18 for 317 yards and 4 TDs in last year’s bowl win over Western Michigan.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: For the first time in their history, BYU and Utah meet to open the season. The Cougars blew a 20-0 halftime lead in an 8-point loss to the Utes last year.

PLAY ON: vs. Utah (8/29)

LIBERTY (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 7/2, RPR: 25/19/52)

TEAM THEME: BOYS TO MEN

After successfully debuting as the “New Kids On The Block’ last season, the Flames suddenly welcome an experienced unit back in 2019 as they evolve from ”Boys to Men.” They enter Year Two in FBS waters having gone 94-55 the past thirteen seasons – all six-plus win years – and would be bowl eligible should they continue the skein in 2019. A nasty 4 game road trek starting in late October will be the real test as to whether or not they are, indeed, bowl worthy. Meanwhile, new head coach Hugh Freeze has risen from the ashes to take over the program knowing it will be hard to top last year’s 52-10 over Old Dominion in their FBS debut.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Hugh Freeze is 17-5 ATS versus non-conference foes, including 10-1 ATS versus foes coming off a loss.

PLAY ON: at UMass (11/2)

NEW MEXICO STATE (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 6/2, RPR: 58/20/109)

TEAM THEME: THE CLIMB

After playing in and winning its first bowl game-ever in 2017, it appeared that the Aggies had finally broke on through to the other side. After all, 57 years is a long, long time between drinks of water. The defense improved over 100 yards per game and nine of those starters were back. And then just as injuries, death, and taxes will do, the grim reaper rolled in and reminded Frank Martin that success is never a given. Now after a dreadful return to the mean in 2018, NMSU is tasked with getting things back to where they were two years ago. A deeply experienced offense becomes the starting point as the ascent begins.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Martin is 1-10 ATS in his career in conference games when coming off a SU favorite loss.

PLAY ON: at New Mexico (9/21)

NOTRE DAME (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 6/2, RPR: 97/86/95)

TEAM THEME: CORRECTED VISION

Notre Dame had visions of a perfect season last year until they crossed paths with Clemson in a CFP semifinal game in the Cotton Bowl. Nonetheless, the Fighting Irish holds the college football record with 42 straight winning seasons from 1889-1932. A quick check of the calendar reminds us it will be at least 2059 should they tie that record, provided they put 40 more winning seasons in a row together between now and then. Before we get ahead of ourselves, QB Ian Book returns this year along with four starting OL and two of their top three wide receivers. With no back-to-back away games, they’ll be as popular as ever in 2019.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since 2011, Kelly has won only 14 of 29 games played from Halloween on out.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Michigan (10/26) - *KEY as a favorite

UMASS (Offense - 5/2, Defense - 5/3, RPR: 128/121/114)

TEAM THEME: SOUND THE BELL

When Mark Whipple stepped down as head coach at the conclusion of last season, the Minutemen hired promising young coach Walt Bell. A former assistant at Maryland, Florida State, Southern Miss, and Arkansas State, Bell inherits a bare-bones roster that was gutted by graduation losses. Gone is star WR Andy Isabella, drafted in the 2nd round of the draft by Arizona, along with both starting QBs, their leading rusher and five of its top six defenders. It’s one thing to take over a program familiar with winning. It’s another to seize one that is allergic to winning. Remember, they were loaded with returning starters last season and lost twice as many games as they won.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since entering the FBS, the Minutemen are 5-1 ATS as underdogs of 29 or more points.

PASS

2019 Mid-American Preview
By Marc Lawrence

Long Time Between Drinks Of Water

The MAC hasn’t produced consecutive conference champions since 2011-12, and four different programs have claimed the league title over the last four years. Northern Illinois enters the 2019 season as the defending champion, but the Huskies have question marks on both sides of the ball and 6-year veteran head coach Rod Carey has left the program to take over the Temple program. Meanwhile, Ohio U appears the team to beat in 2019.

Rivalries Abound

The MAC has its fair share of intense rivalries, including the Battle of the Bricks (Ohio vs. Miami), the Michigan MAC Trophy (Central, Eastern, and Western Michigan), the Battle of I-75 (Toledo vs. Bowling Green) and the Wagon Wheel (Akron vs. Kent State). Rest assured, despite being Group of Fivers, these rivalries remain intense.

Bowl Busts

The MAC has been a major disappointment in bowl games, especially the past 11 seasons as they are just 16-46 SU and 20-38-2 ATS overall, including 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS last postseason.

Worse, in bowl games against foes coming off a loss the MAC has gone 3-22 SU and 4-20-1 ATS since 2008, including 0-7 SUATS as either a pick or a favorite (see Buffalo last year). Yikes.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

EAST DIVISION

AKRON (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 3/1, RPR: 101/55/115)

TEAM THEME: WHIPLASH

The Zips No. 2 ranked Red Zone Offense in 2018 was not enough to save Terry Bowden’s hide. As a result, Bowden is gone after seven seasons in the Rubber City and new head coach Tom Arth enters with a new playbook. Arth, a Northeast Ohio native and former QB at Cleveland St. Ignatius and the Indianapolis Colts, served as a head coach at John Carroll and UT Chattanooga, where he was 49-21, including 5-3 in Division III playoffs. His Moccasins at UTC had the top recruiting class in the Southern Conference. Arth insists that Akron has no returning starters and that every position must be earned. Stay tuned as he cracks the whip.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Zips have been outyarded in 29 of their last 39 games overall.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kent State (10/12)

BOWLING GREEN (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 5/2, RPR: 98/43/120)

TEAM THEME: NO MO JINKS

The Mike Jinx era in Bowling Green was doomed before it started. After taking over a 10-win squad with heavy graduation losses, the Falcons won only 9 games the next three seasons. Bill Connelly of SBNation.com called it the “dumbest coaching search in college football” when they brought in Jinx, an inexperienced former running back aide at Texas Tech (a school known for its air-raid passing attack). The next savior up is Scot Loeffler, who coached-up Tom Brady and Tim Tebow (sounds like an oxymoron if ever there was one). He’s also had big busts at Boston College and Virginia Tech. Even worse for Loeffler, his starting QB Seth Doege decided to bail into the transfer portal. Uh-oh.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons went 39-6 SU in games where they won the stats, and 6-37 SU when they lost the stats over the last seven years.

PLAY ON: vs. Toledo (10/12)

BUFFALO (Offense - 5/4, Defense - 3/1, RPR: 127/122/112)

TEAM THEME: WHERE HAVE ALL THE BISON GONE?

On the heels of a record-setting 10-win season in 2018, the Bulls will have a new look in 2019. One of the biggest priorities heading into the new campaign will be finding a replacement for Bulls’ starting quarterback Tyree Jackson, the 2018 MAC Offensive Player of the Year, who declared for the NFL Draft. In addition, all-MAC receivers Anthony Johnson and K.J. Osborn have departed. Head coach Lance Leipold can rely on the return of four starting offensive linemen but make no mistake – Jackson leaves large shoes to fill. He was the primary reason the SU stats winner in Bulls’ games was 14-0 SU and 13-0 ATS last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since joining the MAC in 1999, Buffalo is 10-62 SU versus winning opponents.

PASS

KENT STATE (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 6/0, RPR: 8/6/34)

TEAM THEME: SEVEN DEAD IN OHIO

When the Flashes brought Sean Lewis in to replace Paul Haynes and his 14-41 record with Kent, they were optimistic that the former Dino Babers assistant at Syracuse would pick up the pace. The offense responded by improving 91 yards and 11 points per games behind Lewis’ new playbook. The problem was, like Babers’ defenses, the stop-unit couldn’t stop a fart when they allowed more than 500 yards in five contests (all losses). And therein lies the dilemma. A once-solid defense has now regressed across the board for three straight years. Seven road games, including visits to Arizona State, Auburn, and Wisconsin, could have them guzzling Imodium by season’s end. Gulp.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Flashes 1-28 SU and 9-20 ATS in games in which they score less than 24 points.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Bowling Green (9/21)

MIAMI OHIO (Offense - 5/3, Defense - 5/2, RPR: 95/89/86)

TEAM THEME: A BAD CASE OF ARRHYTHMIA

At first glance, a 6-6 record last year looked like another disappointing season as the RedHawks have now gone 8 straight years without a winning record. But a deeper look inside the numbers tells another story as Miami won 5 of its final 7 games of the season while going 8-1 ATS and averaging 34 points per game to conclude the campaign. Unfortunately, the offense was gashed as 55.2% of the starts made last season (8th most in the nation) were by 19 seniors. When the Hawks opened spring camp, there was not a single quarterback on the roster that had ever thrown a pass in a college game. So while the spirit is willing, the heart is fluttering.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami Ohio led the nation in Red Zone Offense (.977) last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Ohio U (11/6)

OHIO U (Offense - *4/2, Defense - 6/2, RPR: 113/119/69)

TEAM THEME: ALL BY MYSELF

For the second season in a row, the Bobcats squared off against only two teams during the regular season that owned a winning record the previous year. As a result, Frank Solich’s troops notched 9 wins in 2017 and 2018. The question begs how will they fare this year against an itinerary filled with no less than 6 foes that went bowling last year? We do know this: OU has managed to win four MAC division titles while also going bowling 10 of the last 11 years. With a boatload of experience suddenly gone (54.8% of last years starts were by seniors), Solich is left to fend for himself in 2019.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ohio U has played 26 games decided by a TD or less the last five seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kent State (10/19)

WEST DIVISION

BALL STATE (Offense - 8/5, Defense - 9/2, RPR: 18/56/10)

TEAM THEME: NEU LOOK GROWING OLD

With 10 wins in three seasons, Cardinal head coach Mike Neu realizes his job is suddenly on the line. For a team that retains most of its two-deep, and with only two home foes with winning records last season, Neu couldn’t have asked for anything more. For nothing else, he has made numerous pit stops as a head coach at minor programs, including the Augusta Stallions, Carolina Cobras, and the New Orleans VooDoo. The former New Orleans Saints quarterbacks coach also started 38-of-41 games at quarterback in his four seasons at Ball State. A string of 6 straight bowl foes from Games Four thru Nine will likely determine Neu’s fate.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: BSU is one of only two FBS schools to average less than 10,000 fans (UL-Monroe the other) – or 100K fewer fans than Michigan.

PLAY AGAINST: at Western Michigan (11/5)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 3/1, RPR: 76/10/124)

TEAM THEME: CHIPS ANNOY

Ouch. After winning 7, 6, 7, 7, 6 and 8 games each of the previous six seasons, the Chippewas fell off the map last year with just one win. The culprit was an offense that ranked dead last in the FBS, and whose failure led to the annoying departure of one of our favorite coaches in John Bonamego who managed to beat cancer while coaching CMU. Thus, as a four-year bowler, the Chips become a ‘mission team’ in 2019 under new head coach Jim McElwain, the former head honcho at Florida. He immediately signed seven 3-star offensive recruits, which should be good news with the Chips being ranked in the Top 10 in return production.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS as dogs of 20 or more points since 2013.

PLAY ON: at Ball State (11/16)

EASTERN MICHIGAN (Offense - 6/2, Defense - 4/1, RPR: 117/100/107)

TEAM THEME: FLIGHT SCHOOL IN PROGRESS

It’s been a slow but steady rise for the Eagles in five seasons under head coach Creighton, whose troops have witnessed defensive improvement for three straight years. Closer inspection finds 11 of the 13 losses they suffered the past two seasons came by a touchdown or less, a sure sign this team is aching to breakthrough. In order for Creighton to keep his troops on track, he’ll need to overcome an inordinate 7 away games dotting this year’s itinerary. Given EMU’s 11-49 record in seasons they’ve been forced to play 7 away games, the task could prove tricky. But we’re not betting against Creighton. Not with five JUCOs coming in to fill holes on defense this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Eastern Michigan has allowed the fewest points in school history last season each of the last two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Northern Illinois (11/19)

NO ILLINOIS (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 7/2, RPR: 37/61/29)

TEAM THEME: KEEP CALM AND HAMMOCK ON

On the heels of winning its fifth MAC championship last year, for the first time since 2013 NIU will open the season with a new head coach, Thomas ‘Easy Breezy’ Hammock, a former running back with NIU and an assistant coach with Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Baltimore Ravens. The good news for Hammock is the Huskies return QB Marcus Childers, who threw for 2,175 yards on 234 completions on 397 attempts. In addition, their top four rushers are back, as well as the top four tacklers from a defense that allowed a mere 2.7 yards per rush in 2018. The big test will come with three consecutive road games at Utah, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt in September.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies are 35-13 SU and 32-15-1 ATS in their last forty-eight road games.

PLAY ON: at Miami Ohio (10/19) - *KEY

TOLEDO (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 5/2, RPR: 107/57/82)

TEAM THEME: ROCKETS RED GLARE

Mark it down. Like his predecessor, Jason Candle will be the next Toledo head coach to move on to a Power 5 conference. For the past nine years with the Rockets, Candle has been instrumental in UT’s success. First as an assistant, and then as a head coach, his teams have gone 79-37 while appearing in 8 bowl games over that span. With 13 seasons under his belt as an assistant, Candle was just 27 years old when he was named an offensive coordinator at Mount Union. It didn’t hurt that UT scored at least 50 points six times in 2018, a school record, as well as eleven times in Candle’s three years as the lead Rocket.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rockets were one of four teams that did not start a single freshman last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Northern Illinois (11/13)

WESTERN MICHIGAN (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 10/4, RPR: 1/9/6)

TEAM THEME: YOU AGAIN

Meet America’s most experienced team. According to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, as confirmed by the RPR numbers above, the Broncos bring back more playing experience this season than any FBS squad. And after head coach Tim Lester lured the second-best class in the MAC with 19 three-star recruits in his first year, he didn’t stop there: eight 3-star WRs and TEs, four 3-star OL and a pair of 3-star RBs dotting the roster. And we didn’t even mention the return of QB John Wassink, who broke his ankle in the Toledo game (WMU was riding a 6-game win streak prior to the injury). Look for the Broncos to kick up a storm this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: As many as 14 seniors will be starting for the Broncos in 2019.

PLAY ON: at Syracuse (9/21)

2019 Mountain West Preview
By Marc Lawrence

2019 MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE PREVIEW

Can You Spell Defense?

Forget the ‘The Wall” that our self-proclaimed genius president is hell-bent on building at American taxpayer expense. All we need instead is a blueprint of the top defenses residing in the Mountain West Conference these days.

The strength of the Mountain West Conference each of the last two years has been its defense. That’s’ confirmed by the fact that no less than three teams finished both the 2017 and 2018 football seasons ranked in the Top 25 in overall defense: #11 San Diego State (314.5), #22 Boise State (332.6) and #23 Wyoming (335.2) in 2018; and #17 Fresno State (321.6), #19 Wyoming (326.2), and #21 San Diego State (334.6) in 2019.

20 for 20

As the Mountain West Conference begins its 21st football season this year it’s worth noting that have more than held their own in games outside the conference. And a stellar 62-48-1 ATS mark as dogs of 20-plus points since its inception, including 17-7 ATS in season-opening games sets the table for the MWC this season.

Bowling For Dollars

Speaking of non-conference clashes, the MWC has more than held its own in bowl games, going 52-43 SU all-time.

More importantly, they stand 12-3 ATS all-time as bowl dogs of 6 or more points. Remember that.

The numbers following each team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. The RPR represents each team’s overall, offensive and defensive rankings in overall returning production experience.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

AIR FORCE (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 7/2 RPR: 75/72/74)

TEAM THEME: BABY STEPS

Coming off consecutive 5-7 seasons, AFA head coach Troy Calhoun is like a calf in a rodeo... fit to be tied. While calf roping is a cruel sport, so are losing seasons in Colorado Springs. In fact, you need to go back to 1981 to find the last time the Flyboys posted three straight losing seasons. Remember, Calhoun has averaged 7.25 wins per season with Air Force while suffering consecutive losing seasons only ONCE (until the last two years), when he bounced back to go 10-3 in 2014. Meanwhile, it should be pointed out that the Falcons suffered five losses by 8 or fewer points last season. Look for a reversal of fortune in 2019.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 8-1 ATS as dogs of 20 or more points since 1996.

PLAY ON: vs. Army (11/2)

BOISE STATE (Offense - 6/5, Defense - 7/2, RPR: 88/120/22)

TEAM THEME: GO FISH

There is something to be said about being the biggest fish in a small pond. It’s the status Boise State has attained. The last time a Broncos football team failed to win 8 games in a season was 1998. The most consistent Group of Five team in the nation has knocked off six of their last ten Power Five foes. Helping matters this year, Boise featured 20 underclassmen that made starts last season. Sans QB Brett Rypien in 2019, BSU will take on only 4 foes that had winning records last season, practically guaranteeing them another double-digit win campaign in 2019. As we said, it’s better to swim in a lake with fishes than in an ocean with sharks.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos are 75-2 SU in games vs. .500 or fewer foes with Bryan Harsin on the sidelines (as OC 2006-2010 and since 2014).

PLAY AGAINST: at BYU (10/19)

COLORADO STATE (Offense - *5/2, Defense - 6/3 RPR: 125/126/96)

TEAM THEME: RAISON D’ETRE

Mike Bobo’s neuropathy problems were nothing compared to what the Rams suffered through when they were forced to replace the 2nd most overall total starters (15) in the nation, including seniors that had made a whopping 69.6% of all starts. If Joe Jackson were their head coach, we’d have called them the Shoeless Rams. Last year’s results spoke for themselves as a 3-win season snapped a 6-year bowl skein, thus making them a bonafide “mission team” in 2019. This season you can expect them to benefit from a 2017 recruiting class that included 23 members, 19 of whom saw playing time last year – including six true freshmen that combined to make 30 starts.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 0-23 SU all-time versus ranked opponents.

PLAY ON: at Utah State (9/28)

NEW MEXICO (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 2/2, RPR: 115/80/117)

TEAM THEME: EARLY BIRDS GET THE WORM

We’re as shocked as anyone that Bob Davie is still roaming the sidelines in Albuquerque these days. Coming off a pair of 3-9 seasons, and suspended 30 days over sexual allegations last season, we’re guessing this will be his make-or-break year with the Lobos. Last year Davie hit the JUCO circuit hard to replenish a delicately young roster and it failed to materialize. With it, even more JUCO transfers and two new coordinators are in place in this last gasp salvage attempt. To do so, he’ll need to capitalize on a soft early schedule. We do know that Davie is 45-25 against losing foes but only 17-45 against winning opponents in his career. And therein lies his future.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos are 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS in Game Eleven of the season since 2005.

PLAY ON: vs. Liberty (9/28)

UTAH STATE (Offense - *2/1, Defense - 7/3, RPR: 104/110/68)

TEAM THEME: TAPIOCA

Rest assured, the Aggies will miss Matt Wells, now calling the shots at Texas Tech. The proof is in the pudding: Utah State was 32-16 SU in conference games under Wells. They were 24-42 SU the previous nine seasons. Returning to take over the reins is former USU head coach Gary Andersen, named WAC Coach of the year in his final season in Logan in 2012. He was also the first head coach at Utah State to notch a winning record since Phil Krueger (1973-75). While the offense was pillaged by graduation losses, QB Nathan Love returns after setting five school records in 2018, including 32 TD passes and 3,567 yards. Andersen will have his work cut out for him.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies were tied with New Mexico State with most Special Teams touchdowns last season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Wyoming (11/16)

WYOMING (Offense - *5/3, Defense - 6/1, RPR: 120/102/113)

TEAM THEME: BOHL BOUND

Last year we maintained that head coach Craig Bohl’s force-feeding of youngsters three seasons ago would pay dividends. It did not pan out as expected in 2018, but we remain firm in our conviction that the Cowboys are closer to the 8-win seasons they enjoyed in 2016 and 2017 than the 6 wins they posted last year. For openers, last year’s unit closed out the season on a 4-game stampede. The chip they carry on their shoulder this season is that they were a 6-win bowl-eligible team that was bypassed by bowl committees, snapping a two-year bowl run under Bohl. Remember, they lost their top two RBs, best WR and starting guard to injuries before the season last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Wyoming is 6-1 ATS as a bowl dog against sub .800 opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Air Force (11/30)

WEST DIVISION

FRESNO STATE (Offense - 3/1, Defense - 6/4, RPR: 129/127/121)

TEAM THEME: WHAT GOES UP...

Since joining the MWC in 2012, the Bulldogs have won three league championships and four division titles. It goes without saying that head coach Jeff Tedford has been instrumental in the program’s success as they finished last season nationally ranked for the first time since 2004. Now, however, the bar rises to a completely new level in 2019. Only three starters are back on offense and none of them is QB Marcus McMaryion, who was 21-4 as a starter. On top of it all, OC Kalen DeBoer left the program for Indiana. With the worst RPR in the FBS, fortunately, they will face losing teams in six of their first seven games. Beware.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fresno State is the first team in FBS history to secure back-to-back double-digit winning seasons following a double-digit loss season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Nevada (11/23)

HAWAII (Offense - *9/5, Defense - 9/3, RPR: 9/34/9)

TEAM THEME: KULIA I KA NU’U

Meet one of the most experienced squads in college football this season. With 9 starters back on each side of the ball, the Warriors also hold down a No. 9 overall RPR ranking. Led by gunslinger QB Cole McDonald – ranked 1st in passing yards in the MWC and 8th overall in the nation – and a front wall that brings back all five starters from 2018, the grass skirts represent the best talent Nick Rolovich has had in his three years in Honolulu. Our concern, though, is a defense that surrendered season-high yardage in half of their games last season, coughing up 24 or more points in 10 of its 11 FBS games. Fasten your seat belts as is could be a bumpy ride for Rolo’s boys this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Hawaii is 0-9-1 ATS as a favorite under Nick Rolovich

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. San Jose State (11/9)

NEVADA (Offense - 6/2 , Defense - 4/2, RPR: 66/40/98

TEAM THEME: UP IN THE AIR

Jay Norvell’s offense has gone from Air Raid to Air Pistol, but no one in Reno is complaining after an 8-win season last year, the Wolf Packs best tally since 2010. While it’s nowhere near the Chris Ault and Colin Kaepernick attack from 10 years ago, Nevada’s offense has improved in each of Norvell’s two seasons in Nevada. But with OC Matt Mumme and QB coach Timmy Chang calling the shots, it still falls far short of expectations. Three-year starting QB Ty Gangi is gone, leaving a large hole, but Norvell hit the recruiting trail hard and managed to land a star-studded class of defensive recruits. Our guess is they’re bowl bound again this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Nevada is 0-8 SUATS away off a win in which the Pack were not an underdog under Norvell.

PLAY AGAINST: at San Diego State (11/9)

SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 6/0, RPR: 42/57/51)

TEAM THEME: ROCK AND ROLL

Rocky Long’s secret to success is no secret at all: he loves to pound the ball down your throat and backs it up with a tough-as-nails defense. It’s resulted in 8 bowl trips in eight seasons (after SDSU had been bowling just three times in 23 previous years). However, after three consecutive double-digit win seasons, the Aztecs somehow slipped to 7 wins last season when they dropped their final four games of the campaign. Fear not, though, as an experienced offensive line, a healthy Juwan Washington, and a deep supporting cast of running backs, insure another powerful ground attack. Meanwhile, the Aztecs’ defensive back-eight looks to be the best in the conference. Don’t knock the Rock this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After previously going 41-10 SU and 32-15-2 ATS from Game 6 out with Long, the Aztecs went 1-7 ATS from Game 6 out last season.

PLAY ON: at Hawaii (11/23)

SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 6/1, RPR: 71/68/72)

TEAM THEME: ROAD TO RECOVERY

There are misleading stats and then there are misleading stats. In San Jose State’s case, a pair of 1-7 efforts in conference play the past two seasons under Brent Brennan would look, on the surface, to be a telling tale. Yet the Spartans were 6-2 ATS in MWC play last year after covering only 3 of 8 conference games in 2017. Could that be a buy sign? Improvement in the passing attack, as well as the rush defense, lends promise for continued growth this year. And if that improvement comes, it will likely happen over the course of their first five games of the campaign, as the Spartans will tackle 6 bowlers over their final seven games of the season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The ‘In The Stats’ winner in Spartans games is 53-9 SU the last five seasons.

PLAY ON: at UNLV (11/23)

UNLV (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 5/1, RPR: 39/17/87)

TEAM THEME: BOWL OR BUST

Hometown hero head coach Tony Sanchez enters the final year of his contract with the Rebels riding on the hot seat. And it’s also a good bet that the flames will be lowered by season’s end. Finally playing with a full deck of scholarship players, this UNLV team has something they haven't had on the defensive side of the ball in a very long time... depth. In addition, the Rebels will be returning almost every key member on offense, led by a healthy Armani Rogers behind center. He’ll operate behind an offensive line that goes three-deep across the board with an electrifying cast of wide receivers. This is, hands down, the best team that Sanchez has had with UNLV.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rebels have enjoyed just one winning season over the last 18 years.

PLAY AGAINST: at Nevada (11/30)